SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 29 11-2013
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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 29 11-2013



This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in ...

This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.



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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 29 11-2013 SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 29 11-2013 Document Transcript

  • SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) th 29 November, 2013 CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3872.50 Up 23.10.13 3763.50 3750.00 Soy Bean (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3880.00 Up 23.10.13 3713.50 3750.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Dec) 20-Dec-13 721.65 Sideways 16.11.13 714.70 - Ref. Soy Oil (Jan) 20-Jan-14 722.50 Sideways 08.11.13 727.75 - RM seeds (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3781.00 Up 21.08.13 3485.00 3750.00 RM seeds (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3861.00 Up 21.08.13 3497.00 3810.00 Turmeric (Dec) 20-Dec-13 5410.00 Up 28.11.13 5410.00 5050.00 Turmeric (Apr) 18-Apr-14 5994.00 Up 28.11.13 5994.00 5650.00 Jeera (Dec) 20-Dec-13 12740.00 Down 24.09.13 13340.00 13400.00 Jeera (Mar) 20-Mar-14 13232.50 Sideways 20.11.13 13352.50 - Chilli (Dec) 20-Dec-13 7356.00 Sideways 12.11.13 6714.00 - Chana (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3041.00 Down 18.10.13 3152.00 3250.00 Chana (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3136.00 Sideways 19.11.13 2982.00 - Cocud (Dec) 20-Dec-13 1391.00 Down 28.11.13 1391.00 1450.00 Cocud (Jan) 20-Jan-14 1416.00 Down 28.11.13 1416.00 1480.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Dec) 14-Dec-13 713.40 Down 18.10.13 764.40 760.00 Cardamom (Jan) 15-Jan-14 741.90 Down 18.10.13 792.00 790.00 Mentha Oil (Nov) 30-Nov-13 852.40 Down 10.09.13 892.30 920.00 Mentha Oil (Dec) 31-Dec-13 864.50 Up 13.11.13 911.80 860.00
  • COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND RATE TREND CHANGED CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 28.11.13) Silver (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 19.63 Down 21.11.13 19.93 22.50 Gold (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 1237.80 Down 21.11.13 1243.60 1350.00 Crude Oil (Jan) ($) 19-Dec-13 92.30 Down 24.09.13 103.13 99.00 Natural Gas (Jan) ($) 27-Dec-13 3.90 Up 26.11.13 3.86 3.20 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 28.11.13) Silver (Dec) 5-Dec-13 44128.00 Down 19.11.13 45440.00 47000.00 Gold (Dec) 5-Dec-13 30159.00 Up 22.10.13 30121.00 29400.00 Crude Oil (Dec) 18-Dec-13 5782.00 Sideways 21.11.13 6056.00 - Natural Gas (Dec) 26-Dec-13 247.20 Up 22.11.13 235.90 225.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 28.11.13) Copper (Feb) 28-Feb-14 449.15 Sideways 08.11.13 457.00 - Aluminum (Dec) 31-Dec-13 108.35 Down 19.11.13 109.60 114.00 Zinc (Dec) 31-Dec-13 116.30 Sideways 28.10.13 119.15 - Lead (Dec) 31-Dec-13 129.45 Up 21.10.13 134.15 128.00 Nickel (Dec) 31-Dec-13 842.50 Down 18.11.13 844.00 900.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 28.11.13) Copper 3 Months 7020.00 Down 18.11.13 6996.00 7350.00 Aluminum 3 Months 1754.00 Down 19.11.13 1784.00 1860.00 Zinc 3 Months 1869.00 Sideways 27.11.13 1872.50 - Lead 3 Months 2066.50 Down 13.11.13 2096.00 2250.00 Nickel 3 Months 13400.00 Down 20.11.13 13580.00 14400.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • Market Update (Agro) Spices: Cardamom futures may continue to trade with a bearish bias pressurized by strong availability in the domestic market. The harvesting of the new crop had just started in Guatemala. Crop size is similar to last year. Indian crop also better on favorable weather this year and the next picking is just starting. Chilli futures (Dec) is expected to hold above 7200 levels. Red chilli crop reported damaged in Madhya Pradesh region due to heavy rainfall past days. Moreover, there is demand from Bangladesh, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and Indonesia. Turmeric futures (Dec) is likely to test 5500 levels. Good demand from North Indian buyers as well as exporters is supporting the turmeric prices. Exporters have received upcountry orders in the Erode domestic market, arrival of quality hybrid finger variety attracted exporters. Fresh turmeric demand reported in the domestic market. Exporters were expecting demand may increase coming month and support the prices. Jeera futures (Dec) might take support above 12550 levels. Good demand reported in Unjha mandi. Exporters are active in the market as there are inquiries from Bangladesh, which may support prices in near term. Oilseeds: Oilseeds complex are likely to trade with a negative bias following subdued demand at the spot markets. There are talks that soymeal exports to Iran could break following Tehran's nuclear deal with the West which is expected to pave the way for rival suppliers to boost their trading with the oil-rich country. In the current scenario, soybean prices are high and are not competitive in the world market. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soybeans eased 6 rupees to 3,932 rupees per 100 kg, while soyoil fell 2.15 rupees to 71 9.25 rupees per 10 kg. At Jaipur in Rajasthan, rapeseed was down 3 rupees at 3,850 rupees. Malaysian palm oil futures were flat but weakness in the ringgit may attract interest from overseas buyers. However, trade volumes were subdued, with most investors avoiding risky bets ahead of a palm oil conference in top producer Indonesia. Other Commodities: Wheat futures are likely to maintain the upside trend following steady sentiments of spot markets. India's state-run trader MMTC Ltd has issued a global tender to export 100,000 tonnes of wheat for shipment between Jan. 4 and Feb. 3, 2014. Maize futures (Dec) is expected to trade range bound with upside getting capped near 1275 levels. In India, maize harvest continues and weighs selling pressure in Maharashtra and Karnataka wherein the state governments have started procurement of maize at MSP but due to higher moisture contained and poor quality, procurement of maize is very less in quantity. Due to which farmers are forced to sell their produce at a lower prices. Guar seed futures (Dec) will possibly fall further breaching 4800 levels. Guar seed output is expected to rise due to the expanded area under cultivation and on good rains. Farmers have started bringing in supplies from the new harvest into local markets. Daily arrivals have been around 80,000-100,000 bags (100 kg each). Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to witness some bounce back at lower levels. On domestic bourses weaker local currency can keep the downside capped. Gold can move in range of 30000-30400 while silver can trade in range of 43000-45000. Investors dumped as much gold from exchange-traded products this year as they purchased in the previous three years. Paulson, who owns the largest stake in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest gold ETP, told clients last week that he personally wouldn’t invest more money, according to a person familiar with the matter. Paulson, who maintained his SPDR position in the third quarter after cutting holdings by 53 percent in the previous three months, lost 63 percent year-to-date in his PFR Gold Fund, said the person. Base Metals: Base metals counter can move in range with upside bias. Copper may trade in range of 440-450 while aluminum may trade in range of 105-108 in MCX. Aluminum touched a four-year low in London amid indications the lightweight metal will remain in ample supply even as producers shut capacity. Global output will rise 6.2 percent this year, exceeding demand by about 500,000 metric tons, according to Societe Generale SA. Some 1.2 million tons of capacity will be closed this year, adding to 1.1 million tons shut in 2011 and 2012, the bank said in a report Nov. 26. Battery metal lead can hover in range of 127-129 while zinc can move in range of 115-117. Energy: Crude oil counter futures can consolidate near current levels as it can trade in range of 5700-5850 in MCX. West Texas Intermediate crude headed for a third monthly decline, the longest losing streak in almost five years, amid rising OPEC exports and increased supplies in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which meets next week, will boost crude exports through mid-December by 3 percent as global refineries restart after maintenance. The U.S. pumped oil at the fastest rate in almost 25 years while inventories climbed to the highest since June, Energy Information Administration data show. OPEC, which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil, will keep its crude production quota unchanged when it meets Dec. 4 .Upside momentum may persist in Natural gas as it can 250 in MCX.
  • TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES IST 12:30 15:30 15:30 Economic releases EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) Importance Expected Previous Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral Medium 1.50% 0.20% Metal and Energy Favourable Medium 0.80% 0.70% Metal and Energy Favourable High 0.90% Metal and Energy Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Updhayay Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651 You can also read this report on our website “” SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.