SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 22 11-2013

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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in …

This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

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  • 1. SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) nd 22 November, 2013 CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3907.00 Up 23.10.13 3763.50 3750.00 Soy Bean (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3926.00 Up 23.10.13 3713.50 3700.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Dec) 20-Dec-13 728.35 Sideways 16.11.13 714.70 - Ref. Soy Oil (Jan) 20-Jan-14 731.10 Sideways 08.11.13 727.75 - RM seeds (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3819.00 Up 21.08.13 3485.00 3670.00 RM seeds (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3897.00 Up 21.08.13 3497.00 3600.00 Turmeric (Dec) 20-Dec-13 5088.00 Sideways 06.09.13 5412.00 - Turmeric (Apr) 18-Apr-14 6704.00 Sideways 21.08.13 5176.00 - Jeera (Dec) 20-Dec-13 12710.00 Down 24.09.13 13340.00 13400.00 Jeera (Mar) 20-Mar-14 13322.50 Sideways 20.11.13 13352.50 - Chilli (Dec) 20-Dec-13 7460.00 Sideways 12.11.13 6714.00 - Chana (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3102.00 Down 18.10.13 3152.00 3250.00 Chana (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3199.00 Sideways 19.11.13 2982.00 - Cocud (Dec) 20-Dec-13 1431.00 Sideways 16.11.13 1453.00 Cocud (Jan) 20-Jan-14 1445.00 Sideways 11.10.13 1542.00 - MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Dec) 14-Dec-13 744.00 Down 18.10.13 764.40 790.00 Cardamom (Jan) 15-Jan-14 774.20 Down 18.10.13 792.00 820.00 Mentha Oil (Nov) 30-Nov-13 858.90 Down 10.09.13 892.30 920.00 Mentha Oil (Dec) 31-Dec-13 870.90 Up 13.11.13 911.80 860.00
  • 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND RATE TREND CHANGED CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 21.11.13) Silver (Dec) ($) 26-Dec-13 19.93 Down 21.11.13 19.93 22.50 Gold (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 1243.60 Down 21.11.13 1243.60 1350.00 Crude Oil (Jan) ($) 20-Jan-13 95.44 Down 24.09.13 103.13 99.00 Natural Gas (Dec) ($) 29-Nov-13 3.70 Down 02.05.13 4.025 3.85 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 21.11.13) Silver (Dec) 5-Dec-13 45137.00 Down 19.11.13 45440.00 48000.00 Gold (Dec) 5-Dec-13 30274.00 Up 22.10.13 30121.00 29400.00 Crude Oil (Dec) 18-Dec-13 6056.00 Sideways 21.11.13 6056.00 - Natural Gas (Nov) 25-Nov-13 234.20 Down 04.11.13 214.30 235.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 21.11.13) Copper (Nov) 29-Nov-13 444.60 Sideways 08.11.13 457.00 - Aluminum (Nov) 29-Nov-13 110.55 Down 19.11.13 109.60 114.00 Zinc (Nov) 29-Nov-13 118.00 Sideways 28.10.13 119.15 - Lead (Nov) 29-Nov-13 131.05 Up 21.10.13 134.15 128.00 Nickel (Nov) 29-Nov-13 849.30 Down 18.11.13 844.00 900.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 21.11.13) Copper 3 Months 7020.00 Down 18.11.13 6996.00 7450.00 Aluminum 3 Months 1783.00 Down 19.11.13 1784.00 1860.00 Zinc 3 Months 1889.00 Up 15.08.13 1944.00 1840.00 Lead 3 Months 2088.00 Down 13.11.13 2096.00 2250.00 Nickel 3 Months 13430.00 Down 20.11.13 13580.00 14600.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: Chilli futures are likely to maintain its upside momentum due to delayed supplies from Madhya Pradesh along with strong demand of exporters. The spot prices of chilli in major producing mandies such as Guntur and Khammam have also been augmented to almost by almost Rs 150 per quintal to trade at around Rs 8600-10300 per quintal. Jeera futures (Dec) is likely to witness a consolidation in the range of 1260012900 levels. Spot Jeera prices are holding on above Rs 13000 per quintal amid decent buying support. Market participants are also worrying that the sowing activity would not be very enthusiastic given that the prices have witnessed a sizebale drop over the year. The spot prices in Unjha mandi in Gujarat have averaged Rs 12986 per quintal in November so far- down 13.60% compared to November 2012. Turmeric futures (Dec) will possibly remain stable taking support above 4980 levels. Spot turmeric prices increased in Erode markets on the back of quality arrivals and receipt of some upcountry orders. Exporters and traders have received a few orders from North India. Also, farmers brought quality turmeric. These two factors propped up turmeric price by Rs 400 a quintal. Almost all States in North India have placed orders for yellow spice from Erode. Oilseeds: Oilseeds complex are likely to maintain the upside bias tracking gains of international market & declining arrivals on the spot markets. Late rains in major producing areas have kept moisture content high in the crop, which damaged the beans resulting in likely reduction in protein content. Steady demand from crushers against a backdrop of lower output expectations and limited supplies may keep the counters steady. On the overseas market, palm oil advanced to the highest level in more than a year on expectation that output may decline this month in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s top suppliers. Heavy rains may disrupt harvesting and reduce production in Indonesia and Malaysia in November, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, which estimates yields in Indonesia to decrease by 15 percent to 20 percent this year. U.S Soybeans climbed for the first time in three days on expectations that demand would increase for supplies from the U.S., the world’s second-biggest shipper, even as global production heads for a record. Other Commodities: Maize futures (Dec) is likely to consolidate taking support above 1230 levels. At the spot market, the arrivals from the Kharif season may get delayed due to excess rain in Rajasthan and MP. Meanwhile, steady government procurement in ready markets in South India is also ensuring a positive undertone in Maize market. Sugar futures are likely to remain in bearish zone due to ample supplies and start of crushing season. Almost all factories in Karnataka are expected to start crushing of cane by the end of next week, while about a third of the 180 have commenced operations in Maharashtra. Guar complex will continue to witness consolidation, with upside getting capped as output is expected to rise due to an expansion in area under cultivation and good rains. Guar seed have started arriving in Bikaner district which is considered as a big trading hub of guar seed in Rajasthan. However, volume is still pretty less compared to prior ye ar. Khajuwala mandi alone got 1200 bags daily followed by Bikaner mandi where 500-700 bags are arriving daily. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to trade on mixed path as weaker local currency can keep the downside capped. Gold can move in range of 30100-30500 while silver can trade in range of 44500-45600. Gold traded near a four-month low, heading for the worst weekly performance since September, after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled that it may scale back stimulus in the coming months, hurting demand. Bullion is heading for the worst month since June, and it’s declined 3.6 percent this week, the most since the period to Sept. 13. Gold slumped 26 percent this year on expectations that the Fed will start to cut the $85 billion-a-month of asset purchases that helped gold cap a 12-year bull run in 2012. Data this week showed that U.S. jobless claims fell more than forecast after minutes from the Fed’s last meeting reported that policy makers expected further improvement in the labor market to warrant trimming the pace of purchases in the coming months. Base Metals: Base metals counter can move in range with some lower level buying can be seen. Copper may trade in range of 440-450 while aluminum may trade in range of 108-112 in MCX. Aluminum premiums in Japan probably will hold near record levels in the first quarter as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe continues economic stimulus and supply is disrupted. Shipments of rolled-aluminum products by Japanese fabricators expanded for a third month in September as the Bank of Japan’s record stimulus and Abe’s plan to raise sales taxes boosted orders for houses and motor vehicles, increasing demand for the metal. Battery metal lead can hover in range of 130-132 while zinc can move in range of 117-119. Energy: Crude oil counter futures can see some short covering as it can move in range of 6000-6100 in MCX. West Texas Intermediate crude surged the most in seven weeks after fewer Americans than forecast filed claims for unemployment benefits, bolstering optimism that U.S. economic growth will accelerate. Futures advanced 1.7 percent after the Labor Department said jobless claims fell by 21,000 to 323,000 last week, the fewest since Sept. 28. Envoys are trying to strike a first-step accord that would give negotiators a six-month window in which to win a broader agreement over Iranian nuclear work. Iran denies allegations that its atomic research work is a cover to build weapons. Oil also rose after comments by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi sent the euro higher against the dollar. Draghi said in Berlin that policy makers considered the risks of keeping interest rates low for an extended period. Natural gas may move in range of 228-238 on mixed fundamentals.
  • 4. TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES IST 12:30 12:30 14:30 14:30 14:30 Economic releases EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) EUR German IFO Expectations EUR German IFO Business Climate EUR German IFO Current Assessment Importance Expected Previous Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral Medium 0.60% 0.60% Metal and Energy Neutral Medium 1.10% 1.10% Metal and Energy Neutral Medium 104 103.6 Medium 107.7 107.4 Medium 111.5 111.3 Metal and Energy Metal and Energy Metal and Energy Neutral Favourable Favourable Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Updhayay Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651 You can also read this report on our website “www.smctradeonline.com” SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at www.tatacapital.com and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at www.ilfscapital.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.