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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 19 12-2013
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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 19 12-2013


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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in …

This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

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  • 1. SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 19th December, 2013 CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3880.00 Up 23.10.13 3763.50 3750.00 Soy Bean (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3843.50 Up 23.10.13 3713.50 3750.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Dec) 20-Dec-13 693.05 Down 03.12.13 704.30 725.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Jan) 20-Jan-14 690.00 Down 03.12.13 706.00 725.00 RM seeds (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3586.00 Down 30.11.13 3713.00 3830.00 RM seeds (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3634.00 Down 02.12.13 3802.00 3840.00 Turmeric (Dec) 20-Dec-13 5210.00 Sideways 30.11.13 5062.00 - Turmeric (Apr) 18-Apr-14 6378.00 Up 28.11.13 5994.00 5950.00 Jeera (Dec) 20-Dec-13 13110.00 Sideways 18.12.13 13110.00 - Jeera (Mar) 20-Mar-14 12907.50 Down 02.12.13 12770.00 13200.00 Chilli (Dec) 20-Dec-13 7262.00 Sideways 12.11.13 6714.00 - Chana (Dec) 20-Dec-13 2819.00 Down 18.10.13 3152.00 3000.00 Chana (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3026.00 Down 03.12.13 2982.00 3210.00 Cocud (Dec) 20-Dec-13 1427.00 Down 28.11.13 1391.00 1450.00 Cocud (Jan) 20-Jan-14 1456.00 Down 28.11.13 1416.00 1480.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Jan) 15-Jan-14 713.40 Down 18.10.13 792.00 760.00 Cardamom (Feb) 15-Feb-14 743.30 Down 18.10.13 764.40 780.00 Mentha Oil (Dec) 31-Dec-13 828.30 Sideways 06.12.13 853.70 - Mentha Oil (Jan) 31-Jan-14 839.70 Sideways 30.11.13 885.30 -
  • 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND RATE TREND CHANGED CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 18.12.13) Silver (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 20.01 Down 21.11.13 19.93 21.60 Gold (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 1236.10 Down 21.11.13 1243.60 1300.00 Crude Oil (Feb) ($) 21-Jan-14 98.06 Up 10.12.13 98.51 94.00 Natural Gas (Jan) ($) 27-Dec-13 4.25 Up 26.11.13 3.86 3.80 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 18.12.13) Silver (Mar) 5-Mar-14 45348.00 Down 19.11.13 45440.00 46500.00 Gold (Feb) 5-Feb-14 28868.00 Down 02.12.13 28829.00 30000.00 Crude Oil (Jan) 20-Jan-14 6114.00 Up 10.12.13 6011.00 5850.00 Natural Gas (Dec) 26-Dec-13 266.40 Up 22.11.13 235.90 255.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 18.12.13) Copper (Feb) 28-Feb-14 461.50 Up 12.12.13 459.90 445.00 Aluminum (Dec) 31-Dec-13 109.95 Down 19.11.13 109.60 113.00 Zinc (Dec) 31-Dec-13 123.60 Sideways 28.10.13 119.15 - Lead (Dec) 31-Dec-13 134.35 Down 05.12.13 128.00 135.00 Nickel (Dec) 31-Dec-13 877.80 Down 18.11.13 844.00 890.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 18.12.13) Copper 3 Months 7270.00 Up 16.12.13 7290.00 7100.00 Aluminum 3 Months 1798.00 Down 19.11.13 1784.00 1860.00 Zinc 3 Months 1991.00 Sideways 27.11.13 1872.50 - Lead 3 Months 2183.00 Down 13.11.13 2096.00 2200.00 Nickel 3 Months 14140.00 Down 20.11.13 13580.00 14250.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: Turmeric futures (Apr) is expected to trade range bound taking support above 6200 levels. At the spot market, the yellow spice prices have been hovering around Rs 6,200 a quintal for the past few days. Inferior grade hybrid turmeric arrived for sale, so traders quoted lower price and purchased a few bags. The hybrid variety dropped by Rs 515 a quintal. Only a few bags were sold as traders did not confirm a major quantity of orders. Jeera futures (Mar) would possibly extend its fall towards 12750 levels. It is being reported that around 70% of the sowing has already been completed in the major parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan. The current year jeera production is estimated to be around 40-42 lakh bags in the current year, up almost 5-7 lakh bags from the year. Cardamom futures are likely to extend the downfall, pressurized by higher arrivals. During the current season, from Aug 1, total arrivals up to December 15 were 10,086 tonnes against 5,496 tonnes during same period a year ago. Sales were at 9,841 tonnes (5,230 tonnes). The weighted average price stood at Rs 601.08 (Rs 767.16). Oilseeds: Oilseeds complex are likely to fall further tracking weakness in spot & international markets. Due to lower physical demand kept stockists away from fresh buying. Needy buyers covered about 850-900 tonnes of palmolein at Rs 585 and 100-150 tonnes of sunflower refined oil at Rs 687 directly from the refineries for January. The Soyabean arrivals were at 2.45 lakh bags and prices were Rs 3,600-3,700 in Maharashtra and in Madhya Pradesh it was Rs 3,700-3,825 ex mandi and Rs 3,850-3,925 plant delivery. Mustard arrivals were at 60,000 bags and prices were Rs 3,225-3,650. In Jaipur mustard prices declined on stockists selling. The counter also moved down in Alwar, Bharatpur and Kherli markets on sluggish demand from upcountry markets. Malaysian palm oil futures edged lower on Wednesday, following weaker competing soy markets in China and the United States. Palm oil’s discount to soybean oil has narrowed to $82.9 a ton from $297.44 at the start of the year. On CBOT, The outlook for a bumper South American soybean harvest early next year and prospects for China to shift its buying away from the United States is also pressurizing beans. Other Commodities: Kapas futures (Apr) is likely to test 980 levels on improved demand from mills and traders, while firm cues from the global market. Confirmation from the Chinese government that it has adjusted the formula for calculating import tariffs fuelled hopes that Beijing will not curb quotas for mills to buy foreign fibre. In the spot market, the price of the most-traded domestic spot Shankar-6 variety was steady at 39,000 rupees per candy of 356 kg, data from the Cotton Association of India showed on Tuesday. Sugar futures (Jan) possibly remain in bearish zone, with upside getting limited near 2775 levels. The mills have begun operations in the key producing states of Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka. At the Vashi wholesale market stockists and producers offloaded the old stock it at a cheaper rate to make room for new season’s inventories. On ICE raw sugar and Liffe white sugar futures fell to 3-1/2-year lows, extending losses as funds continued to sell against a backdrop of excess supplies. Chana futures (Jan) is expected to remain below 3060 levels. Factors such as availability of cheap imported chana, slack buying at the spot markets & stockiest releasing their stocks would contribute to the bearish sentiments. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to remain on weaker path tracking weak international markets. Meanwhile weak local currency rupee can cap the downside on domestic bourses. Gold can move in range of 28500-29000 and silver can move in range of 44500-46000 in MCX. Gold swung between gains and losses after sliding to the lowest level in almost two weeks as the Federal Reserve said it will trim its monthly bond purchases on an improved outlook for the U.S. jobs market. The Fed will reduce its monthly asset purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion, “reflecting cumulative progress and an improved outlook for the job market,” Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday after officials concluded a two-day meeting. Base Metals: Base metals counter can witness some profit booking at current levels as investors will look forward to the US home sales data today. Copper may move in range of 458-465 while nickel may trade in range of 870-882. Battery metal Lead can trade in range of 132-135. Copper declined for a third day as the dollar strengthened after the Federal Reserve decided to taper its monthly bond purchases, reducing the appeal of industrial metals as an alternative investment. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, jumped 0.5 percent yesterday, the most since Nov. 8, after the Fed announced plans to cut its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion, taking its first step toward unwinding the unprecedented stimulus. Energy: Crude oil futures can open on positive note tracking firm overseas cues. West Texas Intermediate oil traded near the highest price in a week after crude stockpiles declined in the U.S. and the Federal Reserve said it will reduce stimulus as the economic outlook improves. Crude oil can trade in range of 6000-6200 in MCX. U.S. crude inventories shrank by 2.94 million barrels during the seven days ended Dec. 13, according to data from the Energy Information Administration, dropping for a third week. Natural gas futures as it can trade in range of 260-270 as investor’s eye the weekly inventory report today.
  • 4. TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES IST Economic releases Importance Expected Previous 19:00 USD Initial Jobless Claims Medium 332K 368K 19:00 USD Continuing Claims Low 2775K 2791K Medium -2.00% -3.20% Medium 10 6.5 Low 5.02M 5.12M Medium 0.70% 0.20% 20:30 20:30 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) USD API Monthly Statistical Report 20:30 USD Philadelphia Fed. 20:30 USD Existing Home Sales 20:30 USD Leading Indicators 21:00 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Low Low -81 Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Favourable Favourable Neutral Favourable Adverse Favourable Natural gas Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Updhayay Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651 You can also read this report on our website “” SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.