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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 18-10-2013
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 18-10-2013
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 18-10-2013
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 18-10-2013
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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 18-10-2013


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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in …

This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
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  • 1. SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 18th October, 2013 CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Oct) 18-Oct-13 3578.00 Sideways 08.10.13 3595.00 - Soy Bean (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3585.50 Sideways 08.10.13 3630.50 - Ref. Soy Oil (Oct) 18-Oct-13 715.10 Up 25.09.13 672.85 650.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Nov) 20-Nov-13 709.35 Up 25.09.13 670.35 670.00 RM seeds (Oct) 18-Oct-13 3564.00 Up 21.08.13 3470.00 3450.00 RM seeds (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3679.00 Up 21.08.13 3497.00 3450.00 Turmeric (Oct) 18-Oct-13 4534.00 Sideways 21.08.13 5116.00 - Turmeric (Nov) 20-Nov-13 4746.00 Sideways 21.08.13 5176.00 - Jeera (Oct) 18-Oct-13 12642.50 Down 24.09.13 12985.00 13600.00 Jeera (Nov) 20-Nov-13 12920.00 Down 24.09.13 13197.50 13700.00 Chilli (Oct) 18-Oct-13 6016.00 Sideways 01.10.13 5814.00 - Chilli (Nov) 20-Nov-13 6102.00 Up 10.10.13 6074.00 5700.00 Chana (Oct) 18-Oct-13 3047.00 Down 27.09.13 2903.00 3110.00 Chana (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3143.00 Up 21.08.13 3274.00 3000.00 Cocud (Dec) 20-Dec-13 1505.00 Up 10.10.13 1524.00 1440.00 Cocud (Jan 14) 20-Jan-14 1512.00 Sideways 11.10.13 1542.00 - MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Nov) 15-Nov-13 741.30 Down 24.09.13 794.20 790.00 Cardamom (Dec) 14-Dec-13 767.50 Sideways 10.10.13 768.60 - Mentha Oil (Oct) 31-Oct-13 851.50 Down 10.09.13 905.50 910.00 Mentha Oil (Nov) 30-Nov-13 864.10 Down 10.09.13 892.30 920.00
  • 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND RATE TREND CHANGED CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 17.10.13) Silver (Dec) ($) 26-Dec-13 21.95 Sideways 13.09.13 21.72 - Gold (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 1323.00 Down 09.10.13 1307.20 1340.00 Crude Oil (Nov) ($) 22-Oct-13 100.67 Down 24.09.13 103.13 105.00 Natural Gas (Oct) ($) 29-Oct-13 3.76 Down 02.05.13 4.025 3.85 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 17.10.13) Silver (Dec) 5-Dec-13 48126.00 Down 10.09.13 52235.00 49800.00 Gold (Dec) 5-Dec-13 29538.00 Sideways 17.10.13 29538.00 - Crude Oil (Oct) 21-Oct-13 6143.00 Down 09.09.13 7056.00 6400.00 Natural Gas (Oct) 28-Oct-13 229.50 Up 14.10.13 234.90 218.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 17.10.13) Copper (Nov) 29-Nov-13 447.60 Down 06.09.13 474.25 460.00 Aluminum (Oct) 31-Oct-13 110.90 Sideways 27.09.13 115.20 - Zinc (Oct) 31-Oct-13 116.15 Down 06.09.13 121.50 121.00 Lead (Oct) 31-Oct-13 131.70 Down 09.09.13 137.95 133.00 Nickel (Oct) 31-Oct-13 853.20 Down 06.09.13 903.10 890.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 17.10.13) Copper 3 Months 7230.00 Down 09.10.13 7099.50 7270.00 Aluminum 3 Months 1850.00 Up 10.10.13 1881.00 1800.00 Zinc 3 Months 1932.00 Up 15.08.13 1944.00 1840.00 Lead 3 Months 2176.00 Sideways 13.09.13 2071.00 - Nickel 3 Months 14005.00 Down 04.09.13 13680.00 14600.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: Chilli futures (Nov) will possibly trade range bound facing resistance near 6250 levels. Moreover, fresh supplies of around 45-50 bags of new chilli arrivals in major mandies also added some pressure in futures market. The market participants are expecting that fresh supplies will gain momentum in the coming days. The chilli crop in Madhya Pradesh is estimated at 50-55 lakh bags against 40-45 lakh bags of the last year. The short covering in turmeric futures (Nov) may remain capped near 4870 levels due to strong liquidation along with weak demand of traders at higher levels. Cardamom futures are likely to remain trapped in bearish zone due to higher arrivals & lack of any fresh cues of demand. Arrivals in the current season that began on August 1 are 4,984 tonnes against 2,744 tonnes during the same period last season. Sales were at 4,866 tonnes against 2,573 tonnes during the review period. Oilseeds: Soybean futures are likely to witness an extended fall on a likely rise in supplies from the new season crop. Soybean supplies are likely to rise from Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, the country's top two producing states, where rainfall disrupted harvesting earlier this month. The weather is dry now in both states. Mustard futures will possibly trade with a negative bias due to less demand at the spot markets. In recent news, India has raised the price the government must pay to farmers for buying next year's rapeseed to 3,050 rupees ($49.30) per 100 kg, up from 3,000 rupees per 100 kg a year earlier. The latest cues suggested that early harvesting of Bajra and Paddy crop in some parts of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan will also augment the sowing acreage of mustard seed crop in the current year. The market participants are anticipating around 10-12% rise in mustard seed sowing in the current year due to favourable sowing conditions in major producing states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Edible oil complex may continue to witness an upside supported by notable rise in demand from millers and retailers for festival season against inadequate stocks. Other Commodities: Wheat futures may trade with an upside bias as there are talks that India may soon cut the floor price for exports of wheat from government warehouses by 13 percent, which could boost shipments. Government warehouses are awash with wheat, with stocks at 36.1 million tonnes as of October 1, substantially higher than a target of 11 million tonnes. The government also has an extra 3 million tonnes of wheat as strategic reserves. Kapas futures might consolidate on the back of high inventory and lower demand from domestic and international buyers. Market participants anticipate prices to soften further as there is an inventory pile up of 160 million kg of cotton yarn as there is less demand from China at present. Chana futures may remain sideways with upside getting capped. There is sufficient availability in the country and the area under the pulses is expected to rise this year. Hence the stockists have begun to unwind their inventories. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to remain sideways on mixed path. Gold can trade in range of 28400-29800 while silver can move in range of 47000-49000. Gold was trading near one-week highs on Friday and headed for its best weekly gain in two months on hopes that uncertainties in Washington would delay Federal Reserve stimulus tapering after U.S. lawmakers reached only a temporary budget deal. U.S. Congress reached a last-minute agreement this week to increase its borrowing capacity till early next year, averting a historical debt default, and end a 16-day long shutdown. Gold fell about 4 percent during the U.S. government shutdown, but jumped 3 percent on Thursday after the dollar dropped to eight-month lows and a Chinese rating agency downgraded the U.S. sovereign rating. Base Metals: Base metal complex can trade on choppy note with some short covering can be seen at lower levels. Copper may move in range of 440-460 while nickel may remain in range of 845-865 and zinc may move in range of 115-117.Lead may hover in range of 130-133 in MCX. Indonesia, the world's top exporter of nickel ore, has said it plans to bring in a ban on unprocessed ore exports from Jan. 1, 2014. Its ore is currently shipped to China to produce nickel pig iron, a cheap substitute for higher grade nickel in stainless steel. China's economy grew 7.8 percent in the third quarter, its fastest pace this year and in line with expectations, as firmer foreign and domestic demand lifted factory production and retail sales. Energy: Crude oil can trade in range of 6100-6200. U.S. oil prices settled at their lowest level in more than three months on Thursday as stockpiles in the Cushing, Oklahoma, oil hub began to reverse a months-long decline, and as signs of progress in talks over Iran's nuclear program also pressured prices. European Brent ended the day with the biggest one-day percentage loss in one month. A combination of rising global oil supplies and weak refinery demand due to seasonal maintenance also weighed on prices. Total U.S. crude stocks rose by 5.9 million barrels in the week to Oct. 11, more than double forecasts .Natural gas counter can trade in range of 225-235 in MCX.
  • 4. TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES IST Economic releases Importance Expected Previous 7:30 CNY GDP YTD (YoY) High 7.70% 7.60% 7:30 CNY GDP s.a. (QoQ) High 2.10% 1.70% Medium 10.20% 10.40% Medium 12.90% 12.80% High 7.80% 7.50% Medium 9.60% 9.50% Medium 20.40% 20.30% Medium 13.50% 13.40% 0.60% 0.70% 7:30 7:30 7:30 7:30 7:30 CNY Industrial Production (YoY) CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) CNY GDP (YoY) CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) 7:30 CNY Retail Sales (YoY) 19:30 USD API Monthly Statistical Report 19:30 USD Leading Indicators Low Medium Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable/ Neutral Metals and Crude oil Metals and Crude oil Metals and Crude oil Metals and Crude oil Metals and Crude oil Metals and Crude oil Metals and Crude oil Metals and Crude oil Metals and Crude oil Metals and Crude oil Adverse Favourable Favourable Adverse Favourable Favourable Favourable Favourable Adverse Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Updhayay Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651 You can also read this report on our website “” SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.