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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 17 12-2013
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 17 12-2013
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 17 12-2013
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 17 12-2013
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 17 12-2013
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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 17 12-2013


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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in …

This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

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  • 1. SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 17th December, 2013 CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3800.50 Up 23.10.13 3763.50 3750.00 Soy Bean (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3753.00 Up 23.10.13 3713.50 3750.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Dec) 20-Dec-13 696.65 Down 03.12.13 704.30 725.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Jan) 20-Jan-14 690.55 Down 03.12.13 706.00 725.00 RM seeds (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3655.00 Down 30.11.13 3713.00 3830.00 RM seeds (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3668.00 Down 02.12.13 3802.00 3840.00 Turmeric (Dec) 20-Dec-13 5218.00 Sideways 30.11.13 5062.00 - Turmeric (Apr) 18-Apr-14 6256.00 Up 28.11.13 5994.00 5830.00 Jeera (Dec) 20-Dec-13 13027.50 Down 24.09.13 13340.00 13100.00 Jeera (Mar) 20-Mar-14 13000.00 Down 02.12.13 12770.00 13200.00 Chilli (Dec) 20-Dec-13 7340.00 Sideways 12.11.13 6714.00 - Chana (Dec) 20-Dec-13 2850.00 Down 18.10.13 3152.00 3000.00 Chana (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3043.00 Down 03.12.13 2982.00 3210.00 Cocud (Dec) 20-Dec-13 1411.00 Down 28.11.13 1391.00 1450.00 Cocud (Jan) 20-Jan-14 1434.00 Down 28.11.13 1416.00 1480.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Jan) 15-Jan-14 718.20 Down 18.10.13 792.00 760.00 Cardamom (Feb) 15-Feb-14 747.70 Down 18.10.13 764.40 780.00 Mentha Oil (Dec) 31-Dec-13 828.40 Sideways 06.12.13 853.70 - Mentha Oil (Jan) 31-Jan-14 840.60 Sideways 30.11.13 885.30 -
  • 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND RATE TREND CHANGED CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 16.12.13) Silver (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 20.05 Down 21.11.13 19.93 21.60 Gold (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 1245.50 Down 21.11.13 1243.60 1300.00 Crude Oil (Jan) ($) 19-Dec-13 97.48 Up 10.12.13 98.51 94.00 Natural Gas (Jan) ($) 27-Dec-13 4.28 Up 26.11.13 3.86 3.80 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 16.12.13) Silver (Mar) 5-Mar-14 45330.00 Down 19.11.13 45440.00 46500.00 Gold (Feb) 5-Feb-14 28831.00 Down 02.12.13 28829.00 30000.00 Crude Oil (Dec) 18-Dec-13 6027.00 Up 10.12.13 6011.00 5850.00 Natural Gas (Dec) 26-Dec-13 263.90 Up 22.11.13 235.90 255.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 16.12.13) Copper (Feb) 28-Feb-14 460.60 Up 12.12.13 459.90 445.00 Aluminum (Dec) 31-Dec-13 108.90 Down 19.11.13 109.60 113.00 Zinc (Dec) 31-Dec-13 122.70 Sideways 28.10.13 119.15 - Lead (Dec) 31-Dec-13 133.40 Down 05.12.13 128.00 135.00 Nickel (Dec) 31-Dec-13 867.00 Down 18.11.13 844.00 890.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 16.12.13) Copper 3 Months 7290.00 Up 16.12.13 7290.00 7100.00 Aluminum 3 Months 1793.50 Down 19.11.13 1784.00 1860.00 Zinc 3 Months 1992.00 Sideways 27.11.13 1872.50 - Lead 3 Months 2166.00 Down 13.11.13 2096.00 2200.00 Nickel 3 Months 14030.00 Down 20.11.13 13580.00 14250.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: The bullishness in turmeric futures (Apr) is likely to continue & is seen heading towards 6400 levels on the account of receding stocks in local mandies accompanied with poor production estimates in the current year. It is being estimated that the total carryover stocks of turmeric at the beginning of the December have been reduced to 40-42 lakh bags against 55 lakh bags reported last year in the same period. This was mainly due to strong export demand in local mandies. Chilli futures may trade range bound amid reports of weak crop from Madhya Pradesh and weak arrivals in Guntur. It is estimated that the total production of chilli in the state of Madhya Pradesh is likely to be around 38-40 lakh bags against the previous estimate of 45-50 lakh bags for the current year. Jeera futures (Mar) would possibly face resistance near 13250 levels. The crop is in early establishment stage in parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan. Weather prevailing in this area is favorable for the crop at this stage. Weather is also favorable for the incidence of thrips and aphids for which farmers may take appropriate actions. Oilseeds: Mustard futures (Jan) is expected to extend its downfall towards 3630 levels. Planting has also gained momentum with the coverage higher compared with the same period a year ago, raising expectation of another bumper harvest this year. Mustard acreage in the keyproducing state of Rajasthan is higher by 2.41 lakh hectares at 29.73 lakh hectares, while in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, it is marginally lower than last year. Prices also moved down in Alwar, Bharatpur and Kherli markets on subdued demand from upcountry markets. Any short covering in CPO futures (Jan) may remain limited near 560 levels due to slack demand at the spot market. On the internationals market, Malaysia left a tax on exports of the crude variety unchanged after stockpiles jumped to the highest since March. Cargoes will be taxed at 5 percent in January, according to a Customs Department statement on the website of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. The reference price for calculating the tariff was set at 2,549.98 ringgit ($788) a metric ton. Soybean futures (Jan) would possibly consolidate in the range of 3720-3790 levels. Market participants are cautious & watching the movement of Rupee, which is likely to draw important cues from the FOMC and RBI policy this week. Other Commodities: Maize futures (Jan) is likely to consolidate in the range of 1225-1250 levels. Daily arrivals in the local market from the new harvest are higher while the quality of the supplies from some centers is inferior because of excessive rains. In the national capital, maize weakened by Rs 5 to Rs 1,415-1,420 per quintal. Kapas futures (Apr) is expected to trade range bound taking support above 935 levels. It is being reported that farmers have held back supplies on expectations of better prices and are selling only according to their requirement for cash amid good export demand. Chana futures (Jan) is likely to remain below 3100 levels. The acreage under gram (chana) is higher by over 4.5 lakh hectares at 85.28 lakh hectares, mainly driven by better coverage in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. Spot prices have been under pressure off late amid good sowing progress in rabi season and thin trading activity owing to quality issues. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to remain on volatile path as US fed meeting starts today and ends tomorrow. Investors will look forward to the fed statement from tapering of monetary stimulus. Meanwhile stronger local currency rupee can cap the upside on domestic bourses. Gold can move in range of 28500-29300 and silver can move in range of 44500-45800 in MCX. Investors are dumping gold-backed exchange-traded products at the fastest pace since the securities were created a decade ago, mirroring the steepest price drop in 32 years. Holdings in the 14 biggest ETPs plunged 31 percent to 1,813.3 metric tons since the start of January, the first annual decrease since the funds started trading in 2003. Consumption in China, poised to overtake India as the biggest buyer this year, may increase 29 percent to 1,000 tons in 2013, the WGC estimates. Base Metals: Base metals counter can remain in green zone and can continue yesterday gains. Copper may move in range of 456-464 while nickel may trade in range of 860-875. Copper futures capped the longest rally in three years as global inventories fell to the lowest in 12 months, signaling rising metals demand as economic growth improves. Battery metal Lead can trade in range of 132-135. Stockpiles tracked by exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai tumbled 24 percent since the end of September and are at the lowest since Dec. 14, 2012. U.S. industrial production climbed in November by the most in a year, while Euro-area factory output grew at a faster pace than economists forecast in December. Energy: Crude oil futures can open on positive note tracking firm overseas cues. West Texas Intermediate fell after rising the most in almost a week before a government report tomorrow that may show gasoline and distillate inventories increased in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Overall crude oil can trade in range of 5950-6130 in MCX. U.S. gasoline stockpiles rose by 1.75 million barrels during the seven days. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to release separate inventory data today. Profit booking can be seen in natural gas futures as it can trade in range of 260-270 in MCX.
  • 4. TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES IST 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 19:00 19:00 19:00 19:00 20:30 Economic releases EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) USD NAHB Housing Market Index Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral Importance Expected Previous Medium 29.9 28.7 High 55 54.6 Medium 0.90% 0.90% Metal and energy Neutral Medium 1.00% 1.00% Metal and energy Neutral High 1.70% 1.70% Metal and energy Neutral Medium 0.10% -0.10% Metal and energy Neutral Medium 0.10% 0.10% Metal and energy Neutral High 1.30% 1.00% Medium 55 54 Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Favourable Favourable Neutral Favourable Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Updhayay Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651
  • 5. You can also read this report on our website “” SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.