Smc global commodity daily report 10 10-2013
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Smc global commodity daily report 10 10-2013



This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in ...

This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.



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Smc global commodity daily report 10 10-2013 Smc global commodity daily report 10 10-2013 Document Transcript

  • CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Oct) 18-Oct-13 3600.00 Sideways 08.10.13 3595.00 - Soy Bean (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3642.00 Sideways 08.10.13 3630.50 - Ref. Soy Oil (Oct) 18-Oct-13 698.55 Up 25.09.13 672.85 650.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Nov) 20-Nov-13 694.30 Up 25.09.13 670.35 670.00 RM seeds (Oct) 18-Oct-13 3544.00 Up 21.08.13 3470.00 3450.00 RM seeds (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3607.00 Up 21.08.13 3497.00 3450.00 Turmeric (Oct) 18-Oct-13 4784.00 Sideways 21.08.13 5116.00 - Turmeric (Nov) 20-Nov-13 5008.00 Sideways 21.08.13 5176.00 - Jeera (Oct) 18-Oct-13 12775.00 Down 24.09.13 12985.00 13600.00 Jeera (Nov) 20-Nov-13 13027.50 Down 24.09.13 13197.50 13700.00 Chilli (Oct) 18-Oct-13 5838.00 Sideways 01.10.13 5814.00 - Chilli (Nov) 20-Nov-13 5934.00 Down 06.09.13 5770.00 6050.00 Chana (Oct) 18-Oct-13 2992.00 Down 27.09.13 2903.00 3110.00 Chana (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3104.00 Up 21.08.13 3274.00 2960.00 Cocud (Dec) 20-Dec-13 1505.00 Down 19.09.13 1438.00 1520.00 Cocud (Jan 14) 20-Jan-14 1509.00 Down 19.09.13 1456.00 1530.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Oct) 15-Oct-13 665.90 Down 24.09.13 747.50 690.00 Cardamom (Nov) 15-Nov-13 750.20 Down 24.09.13 794.20 790.00 Mentha Oil (Oct) 31-Oct-13 841.30 Down 10.09.13 905.50 930.00 Mentha Oil (Nov) 30-Nov-13 853.90 Down 10.09.13 892.30 920.00 SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 10th October, 2013
  • COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 09.10.13) Silver (Dec) ($) 26-Dec-13 21.89 Sideways 13.09.13 21.72 - Gold (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 1307.20 Down 09.10.13 1307.20 1410.00 Crude Oil (Nov) ($) 22-Oct-13 101.61 Down 24.09.13 103.13 105.50 Natural Gas (Oct) ($) 29-Oct-13 3.68 Down 02.05.13 4.025 3.90 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 09.10.13) Silver (Dec) 5-Dec-13 49009.00 Down 10.09.13 52235.00 51800.00 Gold (Dec) 5-Dec-13 29303.00 Down 10.09.13 30753.00 31000.00 Crude Oil (Oct) 21-Oct-13 6303.00 Down 09.09.13 7056.00 6650.00 Natural Gas (Oct) 28-Oct-13 230.00 Down 06.09.13 229.60 234.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 09.10.13) Copper (Nov) 29-Nov-13 447.30 Down 06.09.13 474.25 475.00 Aluminum (Oct) 31-Oct-13 113.75 Sideways 27.09.13 115.20 - Zinc (Oct) 31-Oct-13 115.50 Down 06.09.13 121.50 121.00 Lead (Oct) 31-Oct-13 128.15 Down 09.09.13 137.95 133.00 Nickel (Oct) 31-Oct-13 849.60 Down 06.09.13 903.10 900.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 09.10.13) Copper 3 Months 7099.50 Down 09.10.13 7099.50 7270.00 Aluminum 3 Months 1858.00 Down 04.09.13 1789.50 1880.00 Zinc 3 Months 1887.00 Up 15.08.13 1944.00 1840.00 Lead 3 Months 2075.00 Sideways 13.09.13 2071.00 - Nickel 3 Months 13660.00 Down 04.09.13 13680.00 14800.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • Spices: Turmeric futures (Nov) is likely to trade range bound. However, profit booking from higher levels cannot be denied. At the spot market, though traders have not received upcountry orders, they have quoted increased price and purchased 70% of the total arrivals in the four markets. The prices in all the markets increased Rs 300-400 a quintal. Cardamom futures are likely to maintain the downtrend as supply outstripped demand at auctions in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. There is indication that the current crop is better than that of last year. Add to this, it is also the peak harvesting time of the season. The total arrivals from August 1 up to October 6, stood at 4450 tonnes as against 2744 tonnes in the same period last season. Jeera futures (Nov) is likely to remain stable finding support near 12900-13200 levels. Weak stock position in local mandies along with strong demand by exporters from lower levels may cap the downside. The domestic export prices of jeera were hovering around $ 2180-2200 per tonne (FOB) against $2600-$2650 per tonne reported in Syria and Turkey. Oilseeds: Oilseeds complex are likely to maintain the upside on higher festival demand and bullish spot markets. Imported palmolein and soyabean refined oil erased previous day’s loss of Rs 3 as local refineries increased their rates. Stockists continued their inventory-buying to fulfil the Dussehra & Diwali demand. Volumes remained high at the spot markets. Indian soybean futures rose on Wednesday to their highest level in six weeks on tight supplies in spot markets as heavy rainfall disrupted harvesting of the oilseed. The eastern part of Madhya Pradesh state, the country's top soybean producer, received 570 percent more rainfall than normal on Tuesday. The rains are likely to ease in the state in the next one week. The fundamentals of the international market depict that, market participants would be cautious ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board data on September's palm stocks, production and exports scheduled to be released today. In news, The U.S. Department of Agriculture will not release its October crop production and world supply and demand reports as scheduled this Friday due to the continuing U.S. government shutdown. Other Commodities: Maize futures (Nov) is expected to consolidate facing resistance near 1260 levels. The Kharif crop is likely to arrive in the markets from next fortnight onwards. Prices will also be impacted because of higher global supply which may further increase following record crop in Argentina, Brazil and the Black Sea Region. Chana futures will possibly continue to trade with an upside bias taking positive cues from the spot markets. Chana prices in Indore mandis for the past two days have been ruling high. Spot chana also perked up its dal with chana dal (average) being quoted at Rs 3,450-3,550 a quintal, chana dal (medium) at Rs 3,650-3,800 and chana dal (bold) at Rs 3,850- 4,150. Sugar futures may remain in bearish zone as the sentiment at producer level remained weak but in the physical market due to higher carryover stocks. Meanwhile according to Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), the country has opening stock of about 8.5 million tonnes. Market Update (Agro) Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to trade on negative path tracking weak international clues as fear of tapering of QE 3 and debt crises dampened the sentiments. Meanwhile weakness in local currency rupee can give support to the prices which can move in range of61.5- 63.5. Gold can trade in range of 29100-29400 while silver can move in range of 48500-50000. Gold fluctuated, holding above $1,300 an ounce, as investors assessed the potential for an agreement to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and avert default. U.S. lawmakers are open to a short-term increase in the nation’s debt limit to avert a default, according to Republican and Democrat aides who spoke on condition of anonymity, potentially putting the economy back on track for recovery and paving the way for the Federal Reserve to taper its $85 billion-a- month of bond buying. Gold dropped 22 percent this year on speculation the U.S. central bank may cut asset purchases. Base Metals: Base metal complex may continue yesterday losses as investor’s eye the initial jobless claim data scheduled later today. Copper may move in range of 442-455 while nickel may remain in range of 840-858 and zinc may move in range of 114-117.Lead may hover in range of 127-129 in MCX. Most Fed policy makers said the central bank was likely to taper its bond purchases this year, according to minutes of their last meeting, when they unexpectedly refrained from reducing the pace of bond-buying. The government shutdown, which enters a 10th day, has interrupted the flow of data the Fed uses to assess the economy’s health, including payrolls. Higher inventories of semi-processed copper ore are driving up charges levied by smelters to treat the metal, according to Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. the world’s second-largest copper miner. Energy: Crude oil can tumble further lower and can test 6230 in MCX. West Texas Intermediate declined after a government report showed U.S. inventories grew by the most in a year as refineries reduced crude processing. Prices capped the biggest drop in four weeks after the Energy Information Administration said supplies rose 6.81 million barrels last week, more than four times the median estimate. Crude supplies increased to 370.5 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 4, the most since July 5, the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm, said in the report. The refinery utilization rate dropped to the lowest level since April 26 from 89 percent the previous week. Units are usually idled for maintenance after the peak summer gasoline-demand season, which ended with Labor Day on Sept. 2. Refiner net input fell to 14.9 million barrels a day. Natural gas counter can trade in range of 225-235 in MCX as investors eye the weekly inventory data today.
  • TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. IST Economic releases Importance Expected Previous Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable/ Neutral 18:00 USD Initial Jobless Claims Medium 307K 308K Metals and Crude oil Favourable 20:00 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Low 101 Metals and Crude oil 21:50 EUR ECB's Draghi Speaks in New York Medium Metals and Crude oil Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011- 25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651 You can also read this report on our website “” DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.