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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 07 01-2014
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 07 01-2014
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 07 01-2014
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 07 01-2014
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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 07 01-2014


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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in …

This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
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  • 1. SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 7th January, 2014 CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE HAPPY NEW YEAR TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3737.50 Down 06.01.14 3737.50 3950.00 Soy Bean (Feb) 20-Feb-14 3713.00 Up 23.10.13 3865.50 3700.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Jan) 20-Jan-14 686.35 Down 03.12.13 706.00 715.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Feb) 20-Feb-14 679.35 Down 03.12.13 703.15 705.00 RM seeds (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3632.00 Down 02.12.13 3802.00 3730.00 RM seeds (Apr) 18-Apr-14 3453.00 Down 30.11.13 3586.00 3610.00 Turmeric (Apr) 18-Apr-14 6838.00 Up 28.11.13 5994.00 6400.00 Turmeric (May) 20-May-14 6892.00 Up 28.11.13 6010.00 6500.00 Jeera (Mar) 20-Mar-14 12505.00 Down 02.12.13 12770.00 13200.00 Jeera (Apr) 18-Apr-14 12585.00 Sideways 02.12.13 12922.50 - Chana (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3042.00 Down 03.12.13 3051.00 3180.00 Chana (Feb) 20-Feb-14 3099.00 Sideways 03.12.13 3089.00 - Cocud (Jan) 20-Jan-14 1539.00 Up 30.12.13 1484.00 1465.00 Cocud (Feb) 20-Feb-14 1571.00 Up 30.12.13 1516.00 1490.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Jan) 15-Jan-14 702.20 Down 18.10.13 792.00 720.00 Cardamom (Feb) 15-Feb-14 721.50 Down 18.10.13 764.40 750.00 Mentha Oil (Jan) 31-Jan-14 824.30 Down 06.01.14 824.30 870.00 Mentha Oil (Feb) 28-Feb-14 835.50 Down 06.01.14 835.50 880.00
  • 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND RATE TREND CHANGED CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 06.01.2014) Silver (Mar) ($) 27-Mar-14 20.10 Down 21.11.13 19.93 20.80 Gold (Feb) ($) 26-Feb-14 1238.00 Down 21.11.13 1243.60 1245.00 Crude Oil (Feb) ($) 21-Jan-14 93.43 Down 02.01.14 95.44 102.00 Natural Gas (Apr) ($) 27-Mar-14 4.18 Up 26.11.13 3.86 3.90 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 06.01.2014) Silver (Mar) 5-Mar-14 45370.00 Down 19.11.13 45440.00 45800.00 Gold (Feb) 5-Feb-14 28974.00 Down 02.12.13 28829.00 29500.00 Crude Oil (Jan) 17-Jan-14 5846.00 Down 03.01.14 5897.00 6350.00 Natural Gas (Jan) 28-Jan-14 268.50 Sideways 01.01.14 264.10 - MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 06.01.2014) Copper (Feb) 28-Feb-14 467.05 Up 12.12.13 459.90 450.00 Aluminum (Jan) 31-Jan-14 109.65 Up 30.12.13 111.35 105.00 Zinc (Jan) 31-Jan-14 127.75 Up 19.12.13 123.95 125.00 Lead (Jan) 31-Jan-14 135.20 Up 20.12.13 136.25 133.00 Nickel (Jan) 31-Jan-14 851.10 Up 20.12.13 893.70 842.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 06.01.2014) Copper 3 Months 7325.00 Up 16.12.13 7290.00 7170.00 Aluminum 3 Months 1782.50 Up 27.12.13 1784.00 1700.00 Zinc 3 Months 2034.00 Up 19.12.13 1989.50 1900.00 Lead 3 Months 2165.00 Up 20.12.13 2216.00 2130.00 Nickel 3 Months 13560.00 Sideways 31.12.13 13900.00 - **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: Turmeric futures (Apr) is expected to trade sideways facing resistance near 7000 levels. However, the downside may remain capped near 6800 levels. Fresh turmeric demand reported in the domestic market. Exporters received fresh upcountry demand in the domestic market. Hybrid finger variety quality attracted exporters in the domestic market. Jeera futures (Mar) is likely to fall further towards 12400 levels. This sowing is progressing well in Gujarat and Rajasthan districts due to favourable weather conditions prevailing over the major sown area. Jeera prices may pressurize at higher levels due to good condition of standing crop. Jeera production may increase during current year. However, coming one month is a crucial stage for standing crop. Farmers remained concern for the highly cold weather (dew) surrounding the crop. Cardamom futures (Feb) would possibly take support above 700 levels. Factors such as lower level buying ahead of marriage season & ongoing winter season may cap the downside. Oilseeds: Mustard futures (Apr) is expected to remain below 3510 levels. The production is expected to increase on the account of higher acreage and optimum weather. Timely sown Mustard crop is at vegetative stage and intercultural operations like thinning, weeding etc are being carried out in northern parts of the country. Overall weather is favourable for the crop and there is no major threat of pests and disease as yet. CPO futures (Jan) may fall further towards 540 levels. On Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, Palm oil fell the most in more than three weeks on concern that exports from Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer, may decline as global supplies of alternative cooking oils increase. Soybean futures may fall below 3700 levels. At the spot market, Soybean prices have been pressured by moderate demand in the spot markets and bearish trend in international markets. Soy meal prices also depicted a weak trend in tandem with the domestic soybean prices on account of weaker exports demand by overseas exporters. It is estimated that India's soya meal exports are likely to decline more than a quarter to 3 million tons in the year to September 2014 as overseas buyers opt for cheaper supplies from South America. Other Commodities: Kapas futures (Apr) is likely to trade higher & may test 1040 levels. Decline in area under cotton cultivation in China will reduces the world average acreage of cotton, as reported by International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC). In 2013-14 cotton area in China stood 4.6 million hectares, 8% lesser than the previous season (2013-12) and it is likely to be around 3.9 million hectares in 2014-15. India too is showing fall in acreage this season compared to previous. In news, Directorate General of Foreign Trade latest notification revealed that exporters are exempted from submitting documents in physical form for export of cotton, yarn and some other commodities whom online registration procedure has been prescribed for export. Earlier, physical form is mandatory to obtain the registration certificates (RCs). This is expected to simplify procedures for exporters. Wheat futures (Feb) is expected to trade range bound facing resistance near 1680 levels. With favorable weather, assured price and area shifting from other crops to wheat area under wheat coverage crossed record at 302.09 lakh ha against 286.38 last year till 1st January. Sugar futures (Jan) would possibly remain below 2810 levels on sluggish demand and as the government delayed a decision on giving financial assistance to mills for production of raw sugar. It is reported that the Cabinet ministry postponed its meeting over sugar export subsidy issue up to 9th January 2014. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to open on positive note tracking strong international cues. Gold can move in range of 28800-29200 and silver can move in range of 44800-46000 in MCX. Weak local currency rupee can also support the domestic prices in MCX. Gold tumbled 28 percent last year, the most since 1981, as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value amid an equity rally and muted inflation. The Federal Reserve on Dec. 18 said it would reduce its monthly U.S. bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion, with minutes of the meeting to be released this week. The premium for immediate delivery in China was $19.97 an ounce today from $15.87 on Jan. 3. Base Metals: Base metals counter can trade in range on mixed fundamentals. Copper may move in range of 463-472 while nickel may trade in range of 855-870. Battery metal Lead can trade in range of 134-136. Copper futures rose for the first time in three sessions amid signs that manufacturing is gaining momentum as inventories of the metal continue to shrink. Manufacturing in the U.S. expanded in December at the second-fastest pace in more than two years, a private report showed last week. Energy: Crude oil futures may remain downbeat and can test 5800 in MCX. West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the lowest price in more than five weeks amid speculation distillate and gasoline stockpiles increased in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Crude inventories shrank by 3.4 million barrels last week, the survey shows. That would be a sixth weekly drop, the longest run of declines since July 2011. Natural gas futures can remain on mixed note and can move in range of 265-270 in MCX. Natural gas futures rose in New York as arctic air sweeping across the U.S. boosted demand for the heating fuel. Gas rose 0.1 percent as the National Weather Service said the central U.S. will see the lowest temperatures in almost 20 years as the cold is heading toward the East Coast.
  • 4. TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES IST 14:25 14:25 19:00 Economic releases EUR German Unemployment Change EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. USD Trade Balance Importance Expected Previous High -2K 10K High 6.90% 6.90% Medium -$40.0B -$40.6B Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral Metal and Energy Metal and Energy Metal and Energy Favourable Neutral Neutral Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Updhayay Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651 You can also read this report on our website “” SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.