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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 06 12-2013
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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 06 12-2013


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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in …

This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business

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  • 1. SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 6th December, 2013 CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3756.00 Up 23.10.13 3763.50 3750.00 Soy Bean (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3759.50 Up 23.10.13 3713.50 3750.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Dec) 20-Dec-13 701.35 Down 03.12.13 704.30 725.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Jan) 20-Jan-14 704.35 Down 03.12.13 706.00 725.00 RM seeds (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3716.00 Down 30.11.13 3713.00 3930.00 RM seeds (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3782.00 Down 02.12.13 3802.00 3980.00 Turmeric (Dec) 20-Dec-13 4980.00 Sideways 30.11.13 5062.00 - Turmeric (Apr) 18-Apr-14 5706.00 Up 28.11.13 5994.00 5680.00 Jeera (Dec) 20-Dec-13 12407.50 Down 24.09.13 13340.00 13100.00 Jeera (Mar) 20-Mar-14 12830.00 Down 02.12.13 12770.00 13400.00 Chilli (Dec) 20-Dec-13 6638.00 Sideways 12.11.13 6714.00 - Chana (Dec) 20-Dec-13 2907.00 Down 18.10.13 3152.00 3120.00 Chana (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3032.00 Down 03.12.13 2982.00 3210.00 Cocud (Dec) 20-Dec-13 1415.00 Down 28.11.13 1391.00 1450.00 Cocud (Jan) 20-Jan-14 1439.00 Down 28.11.13 1416.00 1480.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Dec) 14-Dec-13 680.20 Down 18.10.13 764.40 730.00 Cardamom (Jan) 15-Jan-14 726.80 Down 18.10.13 792.00 770.00 Mentha Oil (Dec) 31-Dec-13 865.10 Up 13.11.13 911.80 860.00 Mentha Oil (Jan) 31-Jan-14 877.20 Sideways 30.11.13 885.30 -
  • 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND RATE TREND CHANGED CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 05.12.13) Silver (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 19.51 Down 21.11.13 19.93 22.00 Gold (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 1233.20 Down 21.11.13 1243.60 1350.00 Crude Oil (Jan) ($) 19-Dec-13 97.38 Down 24.09.13 103.13 98.50 Natural Gas (Jan) ($) 27-Dec-13 4.13 Up 26.11.13 3.86 3.60 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 05.12.13) Silver (Mar) 5-Mar-14 44461.00 Down 19.11.13 45440.00 47000.00 Gold (Feb) 5-Feb-14 29205.00 Down 02.12.13 28829.00 30300.00 Crude Oil (Dec) 18-Dec-13 6034.00 Sideways 21.11.13 6056.00 - Natural Gas (Dec) 26-Dec-13 254.50 Up 22.11.13 235.90 240.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 05.12.13) Copper (Feb) 28-Feb-14 447.10 Sideways 08.11.13 457.00 - Aluminum (Dec) 31-Dec-13 106.95 Down 19.11.13 109.60 113.00 Zinc (Dec) 31-Dec-13 116.00 Sideways 28.10.13 119.15 - Lead (Dec) 31-Dec-13 128.00 Down 05.12.13 128.00 135.00 Nickel (Dec) 31-Dec-13 849.50 Down 18.11.13 844.00 900.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 05.12.13) Copper 3 Months 7069.00 Down 18.11.13 6996.00 7300.00 Aluminum 3 Months 1758.00 Down 19.11.13 1784.00 1860.00 Zinc 3 Months 1897.00 Sideways 27.11.13 1872.50 - Lead 3 Months 2085.00 Down 13.11.13 2096.00 2250.00 Nickel 3 Months 13750.00 Down 20.11.13 13580.00 14250.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: The short covering in jeera futures (Dec) is expected to remain capped near 12530 levels. Jeera sowing has started in the key cultivating areas. Jeera, or cumin seed, is a winter crop sown from October and farmers mainly depend on rains to moisten the land for sowing. Demand is not improving as expected because the area under cultivation is expected to expand and crop prospects looked better. Turmeric futures (Dec) will possibly trade downside & remain below 5090 levels as local supplies are still high, while there are plenty of carryforward stocks and weak demand. Spot turmeric price was almost steady at 5,241 rupees per 100 kg in Nizamabad. Cardamom futures may trade with a bearish bias as Arrivals continued to remain above 100 tonnes at each auction. Buyers fear that if arrivals continue to remain at current levels, they might push prices further down. Oilseeds: Oilseeds complex are likely to trade with a negative bias on a strong rupee, a drop in overseas edible oil prices and as demand was moderate in local spot markets. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soybeans rose 27 rupees to 3,865 rupees per 100 kg, while soyoil edged up 1.65 rupees to 699.90 rupees per 10 kg. At Jaipur in Rajasthan, rapeseed edged up 14 rupees to 3,806 rupees. The local edible oils had eased in last few days amid a good start for the rabi sowing and ideas that the soybean arrivals would increase in local mandies in near term. U.S January Soybeans finished down 1 1/2 at 1328. January soybeans closed 1 1/2 cents lower on the session but up 12 cents from the lows. The early bounce came after the USDA announce a daily sales to China; not a cancellation but there was a lack of new buying interest when the market rallied up to near unchanged on the day. Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Thursday as investors booked profits from gains in the previous session, but prices were held up by worries that flooding in major palm-growing areas would disrupt output in the world's No.2 producer. The monsoon season, which brought heavy rains and thunderstorms over most parts of Peninsular Malaysia, has caused severe floods in low-lying areas where the chunk of the country's oil palm is grown. Other Commodities: Sugar futures are likely to fall further due to sluggish demand from bulk consumers and ample supplies as the country is set to produce surplus sugar for the fourth straight year. Rising supplies are putting pressure on prices. Demand is weak and is likely to remain weak for the next three months due to the winter season. Spot sugar edged lower 4 rupees to 2,873 rupees per 100 kg at the Kolhapur market in Maharashtra. A committee is expected to meet on Friday to decide on financial assistance for cash-strapped sugar mills. Guar complex may trade sideways with upside getting capped as supplies from the new season crop started arriving amid sluggish demand and prospects of higher output. Farmers have started bringing in supplies from the new harvest into local markets. Daily arrivals have been around 80,000100,000 bags of 100 kg each. Chana futures (Dec) may extend the downfall breaching 2880 levels. Farmers have begun sowing chana in the major cultivating regions. Spot prices have been under pressure off late amid good sowing progress in Rabi season and thin trading activity owing to quality issues. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected tad lower on selling pressure as investors look forward to the nonfarm payroll data scheduled today. Meanwhile some strength in the local currency rupee can cap the upside on domestic bourses. Gold can move in range of 28900-29500 and silver can move in range of 44000-45000 in MCX. Gold tumbled 27 percent this year, set for the first annual loss since 2000, on speculation the Fed will begin paring its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases as the economy picks up. Fed Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said yesterday any decision to taper should be accompanied by a limit on the size of the program or a timetable for ending it. Policy makers next meet Dec. 17-18. Base Metals: Base metals counter can extend yesterday gains. Copper may move in range of 443-454 while nickel may trade in range of 850865. Copper swung between gains and losses as investors weighed signs of improvement in the U.S. economy against concern the Federal Reserve may start trimming its stimulus sooner than estimated. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.2 percent last month, the lowest level since 2008, and payrolls rose by 185,000 workers in November. Labor Department data may show today. Fed policy makers meet Dec. 17-18 after minutes of an October gathering showed they may reduce $85 billion of monthly bond buying should the U.S. economy improve as anticipated. Energy: Crude oil futures can open on positive note extending yesterday gains as it can test 6130 in MCX. West Texas Intermediate’s discount to Brent shrank to the narrowest level in two weeks as the U.S. economy improved more than forecast in the third quarter and supply slid amid rising demand. Refineries boosted their operating rate to 92.4 percent, the most since September. Weekly petroleum consumption climbed 1.7 percent last week to 20 million barrels a day, the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm, said yesterday. Upside momentum may persist in natural gas futures as it can test 260 in MCX.
  • 4. TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES IST 16:30 19:00 19:00 19:00 Economic releases EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) Importance Expected Previous Medium 4.10% 7.90% Low 6K 19K Medium Medium 0.20% 0.10% 19:00 USD Personal Income Medium 0.30% 0.50% 19:00 USD Personal Spending Medium 0.20% 0.20% High 183K 204K 19:00 19:00 19:00 19:00 19:00 19:00 20:25 1:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls USD Change in Household Employment USD Underemployment Rate USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) USD Unemployment Rate USD Change in Private Payrolls USD U. of Michigan Confidence USD Consumer Credit Medium -735 Medium 13.80% Medium 1.10% 1.20% High 7.20% 7.30% Medium 175K 212K High Medium 75.1 $14.500 B Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy $13.737 B Adverse Favourable Favourable Favourable Neutral Neutral Adverse Adverse Favourable Adverse Favourable Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Updhayay Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651
  • 5. You can also read this report on our website “” SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.