SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities)
5th December, 2013

CONTRACT

EXPIRY
DATE

CLOSING
PRICE

TREND**

DATE TREND
CHAN...
COMMODITY

EXPIRY
DATE

CLOSING
PRICE

TREND**

DATE TREND RATE TREND
CHANGED
CHANGED

CLOSING
STOP LOSS

COMEX /NYMEX (PR...
Market Update (Agro)
Spices: Cardamom futures (Jan) is expected to remain below 745 levels & trade with a bearish bias wit...
TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES
IST

Economic releases

18:15

EUR European Central
Bank Rate Decision

19:00

USD Initial Job...
You can also read this report on our website “www.smctradeonline.com”
SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject ...
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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 05 12-2013

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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 05 12-2013

  1. 1. SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 5th December, 2013 CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3807.50 Up 23.10.13 3763.50 3750.00 Soy Bean (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3814.50 Up 23.10.13 3713.50 3750.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Dec) 20-Dec-13 708.85 Down 03.12.13 704.30 725.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Jan) 20-Jan-14 713.15 Down 03.12.13 706.00 725.00 RM seeds (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3739.00 Down 30.11.13 3713.00 3930.00 RM seeds (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3814.00 Down 02.12.13 3802.00 3980.00 Turmeric (Dec) 20-Dec-13 5080.00 Sideways 30.11.13 5062.00 - Turmeric (Apr) 18-Apr-14 5756.00 Up 28.11.13 5994.00 5680.00 Jeera (Dec) 20-Dec-13 12450.00 Down 24.09.13 13340.00 13100.00 Jeera (Mar) 20-Mar-14 12862.50 Down 02.12.13 12770.00 13400.00 Chilli (Dec) 20-Dec-13 6522.00 Sideways 12.11.13 6714.00 - Chana (Dec) 20-Dec-13 2945.00 Down 18.10.13 3152.00 3120.00 Chana (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3066.00 Down 03.12.13 2982.00 3210.00 Cocud (Dec) 20-Dec-13 1410.00 Down 28.11.13 1391.00 1450.00 Cocud (Jan) 20-Jan-14 1433.00 Down 28.11.13 1416.00 1480.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Dec) 14-Dec-13 708.50 Down 18.10.13 764.40 730.00 Cardamom (Jan) 15-Jan-14 735.80 Down 18.10.13 792.00 770.00 Mentha Oil (Dec) 31-Dec-13 864.80 Up 13.11.13 911.80 860.00 Mentha Oil (Jan) 31-Jan-14 876.70 Sideways 30.11.13 885.30 -
  2. 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND RATE TREND CHANGED CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 04.12.13) Silver (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 19.77 Down 21.11.13 19.93 22.50 Gold (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 1248.20 Down 21.11.13 1243.60 1350.00 Crude Oil (Jan) ($) 19-Dec-13 97.20 Down 24.09.13 103.13 98.50 Natural Gas (Jan) ($) 27-Dec-13 3.96 Up 26.11.13 3.86 3.35 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 04.12.13) Silver (Mar) 5-Mar-14 45077.00 Down 19.11.13 45440.00 47000.00 Gold (Feb) 5-Feb-14 29594.00 Down 02.12.13 28829.00 30500.00 Crude Oil (Dec) 18-Dec-13 6042.00 Sideways 21.11.13 6056.00 - Natural Gas (Dec) 26-Dec-13 247.90 Up 22.11.13 235.90 233.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 04.12.13) Copper (Feb) 28-Feb-14 451.30 Sideways 08.11.13 457.00 - Aluminum (Dec) 31-Dec-13 108.40 Down 19.11.13 109.60 113.00 Zinc (Dec) 31-Dec-13 116.70 Sideways 28.10.13 119.15 - Lead (Dec) 31-Dec-13 128.95 Up 21.10.13 134.15 128.00 Nickel (Dec) 31-Dec-13 849.00 Down 18.11.13 844.00 900.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 04.12.13) Copper 3 Months 7095.00 Down 18.11.13 6996.00 7350.00 Aluminum 3 Months 1772.00 Down 19.11.13 1784.00 1860.00 Zinc 3 Months 1895.00 Sideways 27.11.13 1872.50 - Lead 3 Months 2085.00 Down 13.11.13 2096.00 2250.00 Nickel 3 Months 13650.00 Down 20.11.13 13580.00 14300.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  3. 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: Cardamom futures (Jan) is expected to remain below 745 levels & trade with a bearish bias with supply outstripping demand. The total arrivals during the season up to December 1 were 9,001 tonnes against 4,596 tonnes during the same period a year ago. Exporters were also not buying aggressively. However, they have bought an estimated 60 tonnes of exportable variety last week. Turmeric futu res (Dec) will possibly consolidate in the range of 5000-5150 levels. At the spot market, the traders are buying limited stocks and prefer only the quality ones. Due to arrival of poor quality hybrid finger variety, its prices dropped by Rs 400 a quintal. Other varieties ruled alm ost stable. Chilli futures (Dec) is expected to fall towards 6450 levels. In Guntur region, there is a stock of 18 lakh bags in the cold storages and pressurizes the prices. The short covering in Jeera futures (Dec) might remain capped near 12590 levels. Stockists were expecting lower prices in coming days due to higher stocks available in the domestic market. Cumin seed area is likely to increase around 10 - 20% during the current period due to favourable weather condition. Oilseeds: Oilseeds counter are likely to trade range bound with upside getting capped. Quiet conditions developed in the major oil in the Vidarbha region of Western Maharashtra following ample supply against scattered deals. Buying activity declined at existing historic high levels as no trader was in mood for any commitment. Fresh fall in international edible oils and weak trading activity on Madhya Pradesh oil market also affected sentiment. Soyabean prices in Nagpur APMC quoted down on lack of buying support from local crushing plants amid high moisture content arrival. Easy condition in soymeal, no takers to soyabean oil and release of stock from stockists also pushed down prices in thin trading activity. Mustard prices in India's northern Rajasthan state including state capital Jaipur depicted an easy trend. In Jaipur and Kota prices declined on profit taking. Prices also moved down in Alwar, Bharatpur and Kherli markets on slack demand from upcountry markets. On the international market, Malaysian palm oil futures inched up on Wednesday, snapping three straight days of losses on concerns that the worsening monsoon floods in key palm-growing areas would disrupt production of the tropical oil. Favorable South American crop weather and forecasts for a record-large soy harvest in Brazil hung over the market. Other Commodities: Sugar futures (Dec) is likely to fall further tracking weak sentiments of spot markets amid ample supplies. In the Vashi wholesale market, due to ample inventory stocks and slack demand, stockists kept away from fresh buying. Sugar extended the longest slump in more than 15 months as processors are beginning to turn cane into sweetener in India, the world’s second-biggest producer, at a time when inventories are swelling to a record. Mills in Uttar Pradesh, the largest cane grower in India, will start operating by Dec. 12, and output won’t be affected by the delay caused by a shutdown over a dispute on crop prices. Wheat futures might witness some extended profit booking from higher levels. The updated sowing status showed that wheat has been planted on 179.44 lakh hectares (lh) against 158.46 lh. The rains in October have encouraged farmers in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan to take up wheat on a large-scale. Guar complex may consolidate & trade with an upside bias supported by lower level buying. Special Margin of 10% on the Long side on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Guar Seed and Guar Gum removed with effect from December 04, 2013. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to witness bounce back at lower levels tracking firm international cues. Investors will look forward to the ECB meeting and US GDP numbers which will give further indication about recovery in US economy. Meanwhile some strength in the local currency rupee can cap the upside on domestic bourses. Gold (Feb) can move in range of 29300-29800 and silver (March) can move in range of 44500-45500 in MCX. Minutes of the Fed’s October meeting released on Nov. 20 showed that policy makers expected an improving economy will allow the central bank to trim its debt purchases in the coming months. The Fed next meets on Dec. 17-18. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust fell to 838.71 metric tons yesterday, the lowest since January 2009. Base Metals: Base metals counter can trade sideways with upside bias as investors will eye the US factory orders data scheduled today. Copper may move in range of 445-455 while nickel may trade in range of 850-865. Codelco workers at the smelter in Chile went on a strike over bonus talks from Dec. 3, the company said yesterday. LME copper stockpiles, at the lowest since February, fell for a 23rd day to 415,425 tons, exchange data showed yesterday. The U.S. added more jobs than analysts predicted last month, a private report showed, fueling concern tomorrow’s payrolls data will bring forward a reduction to the Fed’s monthly bond buying. Energy: Crude oil futures can open on positive note extending yesterday gains as it can test 6100 in MCX. Brent, used to price more than half the world’s oil, will probably exceed $100 a barrel for a fourth year in 2014 after OPEC bet that demand won’t weaken enough to warrant production cuts. The 12-nation group, accounting for 40 percent of global supply, kept its 30 million barrel-a-day output target in Vienna yesterday. Some members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, notably Saudi Arabia, will probably need to reduce output later in 2014 to prevent a glut. Output from countries outside OPEC will expand by 1.8 million barrels a day next year, exceeding global demand growth of 1.1 million barrels a day. Libya’s crude output will rise to 1.5 million barrels a day within 10 days, from 250,000 barrels currently, as political protests that have disrupted supply are resolved, Libyan Oil Minister Abdulbari al-Arusi told reporters Dec. 3. Upside momentum may persist in Natural gas as investors will eye the weekly inventory report today.
  4. 4. TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES IST Economic releases 18:15 EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision 19:00 USD Initial Jobless Claims 19:00 19:00 19:00 19:00 USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) EUR ECB President Draghi holds press conference Importance Expected Previous High 0.25% 0.25% Medium 316K High 3.10% 2.80% Medium 1.90% 1.90% Medium 1.40% Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Neutral Neutral Favourable Neutral Neutral Metal and energy High 19:00 USD Continuing Claims Low 2776K 19:00 USD Personal Consumption High 1.50% 1.50% 20:30 USD Factory Orders Medium -1.00% 1.70% 21:00 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Low -13 Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Neutral Adverse Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Updhayay Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651
  5. 5. You can also read this report on our website “www.smctradeonline.com” SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at www.tatacapital.com and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at www.ilfscapital.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.

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