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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 05 11-2013


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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in …

This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

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  • 1. SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) th 5 November, 2013 CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3870.00 Up 23.10.13 3713.50 3650.00 Soy Bean (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3890.50 Up 23.10.13 3763.50 3700.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Nov) 20-Nov-13 753.45 Up 25.09.13 670.35 720.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Dec) 20-Dec-13 744.40 Up 25.09.13 668.20 710.00 RM seeds (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3846.00 Up 21.08.13 3497.00 3600.00 RM seeds (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3924.00 Up 21.08.13 3485.00 3670.00 Turmeric (Nov) 20-Nov-13 4604.00 Sideways 21.08.13 5176.00 - Turmeric (Dec) 20-Dec-13 4764.00 Sideways 06.09.13 5412.00 - Jeera (Nov) 20-Nov-13 12560.00 Down 24.09.13 13197.50 13300.00 Jeera (Dec) 20-Dec-13 12767.50 Down 24.09.13 13340.00 13600.00 Chilli (Nov) 20-Nov-13 6140.00 Down 01.11.13 6184.00 6500.00 Chilli (Dec) 20-Dec-13 6292.00 Down 03.11.13 6292.00 6700.00 Chana (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3134.00 Up 21.08.13 3274.00 3000.00 Chana (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3215.00 Down 18.10.13 3152.00 3270.00 Cocud (Dec) 20-Dec-13 1475.00 Up 10.10.13 1524.00 1460.00 Cocud (Jan 14) 20-Jan-14 1484.00 Sideways 11.10.13 1542.00 - MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Nov) 15-Nov-13 690.90 Down 24.09.13 794.20 740.00 Cardamom (Dec) 14-Dec-13 737.80 Down 18.10.13 764.40 790.00 Mentha Oil (Nov) 30-Nov-13 843.60 Down 10.09.13 892.30 920.00 Mentha Oil (Dec) 31-Dec-13 855.70 Down 10.09.13 905.50 910.00
  • 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND RATE TREND CHANGED CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 04.11.13) Silver (Dec) ($) 26-Dec-13 21.700 Up 22.10.13 22.79 20.85 Gold (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 1314.70 Up 22.10.13 1342.60 1300.00 Crude Oil (Dec) ($) 20-Nov-13 94.62 Down 24.09.13 103.13 100.00 Natural Gas (Dec) ($) 29-Nov-13 3.445 Down 02.05.13 4.025 3.85 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 04.11.13) Silver (Dec) 5-Dec-13 48257.00 Up 22.10.13 49884.00 48000.00 Gold (Dec) 5-Dec-13 29821.00 Up 22.10.13 30121.00 29400.00 Crude Oil (Nov) 29-Nov-13 5895.00 Down 09.09.13 7056.00 6150.00 Natural Gas (Nov) 25-Nov-13 214.30 Down 04.11.13 214.30 235.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 04.11.13) Copper (Nov) 29-Nov-13 447.60 Down 06.09.13 474.25 456.00 Aluminum (Nov) 29-Nov-13 111.90 Sideways 27.09.13 115.20 - Zinc (Nov) 29-Nov-13 118.70 Sideways 28.10.13 119.15 - Lead (Nov) 29-Nov-13 133.80 Up 21.10.13 134.15 128.00 Nickel (Nov) 29-Nov-13 891.30 Up 22.10.13 903.70 865.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 04.11.13) Copper 3 Months 7190.50 Up 22.10.13 7332.00 7100.00 Aluminum 3 Months 1832.00 Up 10.10.13 1881.00 1800.00 Zinc 3 Months 1932.00 Up 15.08.13 1944.00 1840.00 Lead 3 Months 2158.50 Up 22.10.13 2205.00 2100.00 Nickel 3 Months 14350.00 Up 22.10.13 14850.00 14150.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: Cardamom futures may fall due to heavy arrivals at auctions on good buying support. The individual auction average is vacillating between Rs 555 and Rs 590/kg. The weighted average price as on October 31 stood at around Rs 607.18 (Rs 741.62).Chilli futures may witness extended profit booking from higher levels due to restricted buying by exporters along with fresh supplies from Madhya Pradesh. The recent rise in prices has provided the opportunity to major stockiest to liquidate their stocks at elevated levels. The spot market prices were also dampened by mounting supplies from Madhya Pradesh. Turmeric futures will perhaps consolidate taking bearish cues from spot markets. Fresh demand is expected from second week of November as North Indian traders and buyers may return to market after Diwali. The turmeric market will be closed till November 4 from Friday for Diwali. Jeera futures may trade with a negative bias on sentiments that good rainfall recorded in Gujarat, and area may increase in coming sowing period. Oilseeds: Oilseeds complex are to trade range bound with some profit booking from higher levels may be seen I today’s session. The bullish trend has been continuing in soya oil for the past one week, pushing up soya refined prices in Indore mandis to Rs 710-715 for 10 kg (up Rs 15 from last week) and those of soya solvents to Rs 670-75 (up Rs 20 from last week). With soyabean output expected to fall this year, the bullish trend in soya oil is expected to continue. According to the second crop estimate by the association, production of soyabean in the country this year will decline to 122.35 lakh tonnes against 129.83 lakh tonnes projected in its first crop estimate. In the international market, Ideas that China continues to be an active buyer of US soybeans, positive economic news from China overnight and ideas that the market is oversold after last week's sharp set-back to 21-month lows helped to support to soybean prices. Malaysian palm oil futures traded lower for the first time in six sessions weighed by weak crude prices and as traders booked profits after big gains last week. Other Commodities: Guar complex may trade higher on reports that the crop got hurt badly in Western Rajasthan especially in Churu, Nagaur and Bikaner districts owing to one month dry spell which damage around 50% of the guar seed crop. Recent rainfall in the Northern India would support the standing guar crop but also would delay the arrivals of new crop. Kapas futures may fall further on reports that production may total 37.5 million bales of 170 kilograms (375 pounds each) in the year that began Oct. 1 from 36.5 million bales in 20122013. China is hoarding a record amount of cotton to aid farmers as global production exceeds demand for a fourth consecutive year, increasing the risk of a supply surge that would send cotton prices prices into a bear market. Sugar futures may trade range bound as market participants may remain cautious. There are talks that India will examine the demand made by local mills for raising the import tax on sugar, to help curb imports and reduce domestic stocks. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to remain on weaker path with some short covering can be seen at lower levels. Gold can trade in range of 29500-30000 and silver can move in range of 47500-49500. Gold futures pared gains as the rally in U.S. equities damped demand for the metal as an alternative investment. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said he wouldn’t rule out backing a tapering of the central bank’s debt purchases by March. South Africa’s National Union of Mineworkers began a strike yesterday over wages at Northam Platinum Ltd. The company proposed a meeting tomorrow with workers. Base Metals: Base metal complex can trade on subdued path but weaker local currency can cap the downside. Copper may trade in range of 445-450 while lead may trade in range of 880-900. Copper futures dropped the most in more than a week in New York as U.S. factory orders rose less than forecast in September, adding to concern that demand for the metal may slow. Communist Party leaders in China, entering a summit this week, will weigh signs of an economy on an upswing against concern that excessive credit growth, rising local-government debt and weaker export momentum may cap the recovery. China is the world’s biggest copper user. The Copper Development Association says construction generates about 40 percent of demand for the metal, used in pipes and wiring. Energy: Crude oil futures may remain in red tracking weak global markets. Crude oil can move in range of 5800-5950 in MCX. West Texas Intermediate swung between gains and losses near the lowest price in more than four months amid speculation crude inventories increased for a seventh week in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Libya prepared to resume crude exports at its Hariga terminal amid protests involving armed guards. Hedge funds and other money managers reduced bullish bets on Brent crude by the most in four months, ICE Futures Europe data show. Natural gas may continue yesterday losses due to less demand. It can move in range of 210-220 in MCX.
  • 4. TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES IST 15:30 15:30 15:30 20:30 Economic releases EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) EUR European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts USD ISM NonManufacutring Composite Importance Expected Previous Low 0.20% 0.00% Medium -0.80% -0.80% Adverse/Favourable /Neutral Metal and Energy Metal and Energy Neutral Neutral Metal and Energy Medium High Impact on Commodity 54 54.4 Metal and Energy Adverse Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Updhayay Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651 You can also read this report on our website “” SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.