SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities)
4th December, 2013

CONTRACT

EXPIRY
DATE

CLOSING
PRICE

TREND**

DATE TREND
CHAN...
COMMODITY

EXPIRY
DATE

CLOSING
PRICE

TREND**

DATE TREND RATE TREND
CHANGED
CHANGED

CLOSING
STOP LOSS

COMEX /NYMEX (PR...
Market Update (Agro)
Spices: The short covering in turmeric futures (Dec) may remain capped near 500 levels. There is due ...
TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES
IST

14:20
14:25
14:30

14:30

15:30
15:30
15:30
15:30
18:45
19:00
20:30
21:00
0:30

Economic ...
You can also read this report on our website “www.smctradeonline.com”
SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject ...
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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 04 12-2013

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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

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Transcript of "SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 04 12-2013"

  1. 1. SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 4th December, 2013 CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3785.00 Up 23.10.13 3763.50 3750.00 Soy Bean (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3789.00 Up 23.10.13 3713.50 3750.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Dec) 20-Dec-13 704.30 Down 03.12.13 704.30 725.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Jan) 20-Jan-14 706.00 Down 03.12.13 706.00 725.00 RM seeds (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3679.00 Down 30.11.13 3713.00 3930.00 RM seeds (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3764.00 Down 02.12.13 3802.00 3980.00 Turmeric (Dec) 20-Dec-13 4988.00 Sideways 30.11.13 5062.00 - Turmeric (Apr) 18-Apr-14 5710.00 Up 28.11.13 5994.00 5680.00 Jeera (Dec) 20-Dec-13 12337.50 Down 24.09.13 13340.00 13100.00 Jeera (Mar) 20-Mar-14 12775.00 Down 02.12.13 12770.00 13400.00 Chilli (Dec) 20-Dec-13 6734.00 Sideways 12.11.13 6714.00 - Chana (Dec) 20-Dec-13 2932.00 Down 18.10.13 3152.00 3120.00 Chana (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3051.00 Down 03.12.13 2982.00 3210.00 Cocud (Dec) 20-Dec-13 1397.00 Down 28.11.13 1391.00 1450.00 Cocud (Jan) 20-Jan-14 1420.00 Down 28.11.13 1416.00 1480.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Dec) 14-Dec-13 686.10 Down 18.10.13 764.40 730.00 Cardamom (Jan) 15-Jan-14 729.40 Down 18.10.13 792.00 770.00 Mentha Oil (Dec) 31-Dec-13 864.10 Up 13.11.13 911.80 860.00 Mentha Oil (Jan) 31-Jan-14 876.70 Sideways 30.11.13 885.30 -
  2. 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND RATE TREND CHANGED CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 03.12.13) Silver (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 19.01 Down 21.11.13 19.93 22.50 Gold (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 1221.70 Down 21.11.13 1243.60 1350.00 Crude Oil (Jan) ($) 19-Dec-13 96.04 Down 24.09.13 103.13 98.50 Natural Gas (Jan) ($) 27-Dec-13 3.98 Up 26.11.13 3.86 3.20 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 03.12.13) Silver (Mar) 5-Mar-14 44138.00 Down 19.11.13 45440.00 47000.00 Gold (Feb) 5-Feb-14 29062.00 Down 02.12.13 28829.00 30500.00 Crude Oil (Dec) 18-Dec-13 6014.00 Sideways 21.11.13 6056.00 - Natural Gas (Dec) 26-Dec-13 248.40 Up 22.11.13 235.90 230.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 03.12.13) Copper (Feb) 28-Feb-14 445.50 Sideways 08.11.13 457.00 - Aluminum (Dec) 31-Dec-13 107.50 Down 19.11.13 109.60 113.00 Zinc (Dec) 31-Dec-13 116.70 Sideways 28.10.13 119.15 - Lead (Dec) 31-Dec-13 128.80 Up 21.10.13 134.15 128.00 Nickel (Dec) 31-Dec-13 844.40 Down 18.11.13 844.00 900.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 03.12.13) Copper 3 Months 6960.00 Down 18.11.13 6996.00 7350.00 Aluminum 3 Months 1739.00 Down 19.11.13 1784.00 1860.00 Zinc 3 Months 1875.00 Sideways 27.11.13 1872.50 - Lead 3 Months 2064.00 Down 13.11.13 2096.00 2250.00 Nickel 3 Months 13450.00 Down 20.11.13 13580.00 14400.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  3. 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: The short covering in turmeric futures (Dec) may remain capped near 500 levels. There is due to possibility of early harvesting of new crop along with weak export demand at higher levels. The new harvesting season of turmeric crop will begin from the end-December in some parts of Andhra Pradesh due to early plantation by farmers. The fresh arrivals of turmeric in Andhra Pradesh normally begins from midJanuary. So anticipation of early harvesting of the new crop has propelled strong stockiest selling in local mandies. Jeera futures may trade with a negative bias with upside getting limited near 12540 levels. Fundamental factors are bearish due to weak export demand in local mandies along with possibility of bumper production in the current year. The spot prices declined by Rs 150 -200 per quintal at Unjha mandi to close at Rs 12800-13000 per quintal. The sluggish trend in physical market was mainly due to restricted buying by exporters and some stockiest liquidation. Cardamom futures are likely to shed further as arrivals continue to gain speed with the beginning of the fourth picking of the crop. Oilseeds: Soybean future (Dec) is likely to fall further breaching 3770 levels. At the spot market, Soyabean and dipped at the Vidarbha region of Western Maharashtra on considerable fall in demand at prevailing levels, amid weak trends in overseas markets. U.S January Soybeans finished down 1 1/2 at 1319 3/4. The slower than expected weekly export inspections for soybeans helped spark aggressive long liquidation. The USDA has pegged the Brazil soybean production crop at a record high 88 million tonnes from just 82 million last year and 66.5 million for 2012. Mustard futures (Dec) may fall further towards 3640 levels. Slackness in demand from millers and retailers against adequate stocks mainly pulled rapeseed oil prices down. Rapeseed prices in India's northern Rajasthan state including state capital Jaipur depicted a declining trend. The total arrivals of rapeseed, in Rajasthan yesterday were placed at 32,000-42,000 bags of 85 kg each. In Jaipur and Kota prices eased on stockists selling. Prices also moved down in Alwar, Bharatpur and Kherli markets on slack demand from upcountry markets. CPO futures (Dec) will probably fall further breaching 560 levels. Malaysian palm oil futures edged lower for the third straight day on Tuesday as weaker-than-expected exports weighed. On the contrary, heavy rains and floods complicate palm harvesting and disrupts transportation of fresh fruit bunches to mills. Other Commodities: Sugar futures are likely to extend its downside as the mills across the country have started crushing operations for the 2013-14 marketing year (October-September). Private mills in Uttar Pradesh ended over a week-long standoff with the state government over cane prices and agreed to commence operations. The forecasts sugar production of 25 million tonnes this year, higher than the government estimate of 24.4 million tonnes and more than sufficient to meet domestic demand of 23.5 million tonnes. Spot sugar nudged a rupee down to 2,877 rupees per 100 kg at the Kolhapur market in Maharashtra. The downside in wheat futures may remain capped as according to IGC report global carryover stocks are expected to fall to 181 million tonnes from 182 million tonnes. Global consumption too is expected to increase from 690 million tonnes to 692 million tonnes. Chana futures (Dec) may fall towards 2900 levels. The strong supplies of inferior quality of chana in the major mandies of Rajasthan and Maharashtra have established bearish sentiments in local mandies. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to trade in range today on mixed fundamentals. Gold prices held near their lowest since early July on Tuesday after U.S. data fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve is set to taper its monetary stimulus, further dampening investment interest in the metal. Investors have heavily sold gold in 2013, with holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York's SPDR Gold Shares GLD, plummeting more than 500 tonnes this year to their lowest since January 2009. Data from the U.S. Mint showed its sales of gold American Eagle coins fell to 48,000 last month from 136,500 ounces in November 2012, while the Perth Mint's November sales of gold bars and coins dropped by nearly a third. Base Metals: Base metals counter can trade sideways on mixed path. London copper plumbed its lowest in nearly two weeks on Tuesday after surprisingly robust U.S. factory data bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve could trim its commodity-friendly stimulus before yearend. A gauge of U.S. factory activity hit a 2-1/2-year high in November and construction spending increased solidly in October, brightening the economic outlook as the year winds down. The U.S. report could bring the Fed a step closer to scaling back its bond-buying stimulus programme. The data also pushed the euro to a one-week low against the dollar, adding to headwinds for metals. Energy: Crude oil counter futures can open on positive note. Brent crude held above $111 a barrel on Tuesday, near a three-month high hit in the previous session, as strong economic data boosted the demand outlook and outages in Libya maintained concerns about supply. Investors will look forward to the OPEC meeting today and EIA inventory data today for further direction. Upside momentum may persist in Natural gas amid winter demand on falling temperatures. U.S. natural gas futures shrugged off this week's milder weather to end higher on Monday, with the front month driven to a six-month high by colder weather forecasts for next week that should trigger another strong run up in heating demand.
  4. 4. TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES IST 14:20 14:25 14:30 14:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 18:45 19:00 20:30 21:00 0:30 Economic releases EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) USD ADP Employment Change USD Trade Balance USD ISM NonManufacutring Composite USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories USD U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral Importance Expected Previous Low 48.8 48.8 Medium 54.5 54.5 Medium 50.9 50.9 Metal and energy Neutral Medium 51.5 51.5 Metal and energy Neutral Medium 0.10% 0.10% Metal and energy Neutral Low 0.20% -0.60% Medium 1.00% 0.30% High -0.40% -0.40% Medium 173K 130K Medium -$40.2B -$41.8B Medium 55.1 55.4 Low 2953K Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Neutral Neutral Favourable Favourable Neutral Favourable Adverse Adverse Crude oil High Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Updhayay Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651
  5. 5. You can also read this report on our website “www.smctradeonline.com” SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at www.tatacapital.com and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at www.ilfscapital.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.

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