SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities)
3rd December, 2013

CONTRACT

EXPIRY
DATE

CLOSING
PRICE

TREND**

DATE TREND
CHAN...
COMMODITY

EXPIRY
DATE

CLOSING
PRICE

TREND**

DATE TREND RATE TREND
CHANGED
CHANGED

CLOSING
STOP LOSS

COMEX /NYMEX (PR...
Market Update (Agro)
Spices: Chilli futures (Dec) may tumble further breaching 6710 levels on account of extended profit b...
TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES
IST

3:30

Economic releases

USD Total Vehicle Sales

Importance

Expected

Previous

Impact ...
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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 03 12-2013

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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.


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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report 03 12-2013

  1. 1. SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 3rd December, 2013 CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3889.00 Up 23.10.13 3763.50 3750.00 Soy Bean (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3909.00 Up 23.10.13 3713.50 3750.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Dec) 20-Dec-13 712.35 Sideways 16.11.13 714.70 - Ref. Soy Oil (Jan) 20-Jan-14 716.25 Sideways 08.11.13 727.75 - RM seeds (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3705.00 Down 30.11.13 3713.00 3930.00 RM seeds (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3802.00 Down 02.12.13 3802.00 3980.00 Turmeric (Dec) 20-Dec-13 4982.00 Sideways 30.11.13 5062.00 - Turmeric (Apr) 18-Apr-14 5702.00 Up 28.11.13 5994.00 5680.00 Jeera (Dec) 20-Dec-13 12367.50 Down 24.09.13 13340.00 13100.00 Jeera (Mar) 20-Mar-14 12770.00 Down 02.12.13 12770.00 13400.00 Chilli (Dec) 20-Dec-13 6756.00 Sideways 12.11.13 6714.00 - Chana (Dec) 20-Dec-13 3007.00 Down 18.10.13 3152.00 3180.00 Chana (Jan) 20-Jan-14 3110.00 Sideways 19.11.13 2982.00 - Cocud (Dec) 20-Dec-13 1407.00 Down 28.11.13 1391.00 1450.00 Cocud (Jan) 20-Jan-14 1431.00 Down 28.11.13 1416.00 1480.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Dec) 14-Dec-13 697.10 Down 18.10.13 764.40 750.00 Cardamom (Jan) 15-Jan-14 728.80 Down 18.10.13 792.00 780.00 Mentha Oil (Dec) 31-Dec-13 876.10 Up 13.11.13 911.80 860.00 Mentha Oil (Jan) 31-Jan-14 888.00 Sideways 30.11.13 885.30 -
  2. 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND RATE TREND CHANGED CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 02.12.13) Silver (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 19.23 Down 21.11.13 19.93 22.50 Gold (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 1222.30 Down 21.11.13 1243.60 1350.00 Crude Oil (Jan) ($) 19-Dec-13 93.82 Down 24.09.13 103.13 98.50 Natural Gas (Jan) ($) 27-Dec-13 3.99 Up 26.11.13 3.86 3.20 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 02.12.13) Silver (Mar) 5-Mar-14 44472.00 Down 19.11.13 45440.00 47000.00 Gold (Feb) 5-Feb-14 28829.00 Down 02.12.13 28829.00 30500.00 Crude Oil (Dec) 18-Dec-13 5852.00 Sideways 21.11.13 6056.00 - Natural Gas (Dec) 26-Dec-13 247.20 Up 22.11.13 235.90 230.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 02.12.13) Copper (Feb) 28-Feb-14 445.60 Sideways 08.11.13 457.00 - Aluminum (Dec) 31-Dec-13 107.45 Down 19.11.13 109.60 113.00 Zinc (Dec) 31-Dec-13 116.30 Sideways 28.10.13 119.15 - Lead (Dec) 31-Dec-13 128.55 Up 21.10.13 134.15 128.00 Nickel (Dec) 31-Dec-13 845.80 Down 18.11.13 844.00 900.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 02.12.13) Copper 3 Months 6975.00 Down 18.11.13 6996.00 7350.00 Aluminum 3 Months 1742.50 Down 19.11.13 1784.00 1860.00 Zinc 3 Months 1877.00 Sideways 27.11.13 1872.50 - Lead 3 Months 2067.00 Down 13.11.13 2096.00 2250.00 Nickel 3 Months 13515.00 Down 20.11.13 13580.00 14400.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  3. 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: Chilli futures (Dec) may tumble further breaching 6710 levels on account of extended profit booking. In Andhra Pradesh region, good red chilli crop expected during the current period. In Guntur region, there is a stock of 18 lakh bags in the cold storages of Guntur, of which 50% is from last year and of poor quality. Turmeric futures (Dec) is expected to test 4900 levels, downside on long liquidation triggered by higher stocks. At the spot market, turmeric prices were not sustaining at higher levels due to higher carry forward stocks available in the domestic market. The bearish fall in jeera futures (Dec) will possibly get extended breaching 12300 levels. This season, the area under cultivation is likely to increase around 10 - 20% due to favourable weather condition. In the current scenario, stockiest buying is not much due to higher stocks available in the domestic market. Cardamom futures may fall tracking weak fundamentals prevailing at the spot market. Lower demand amid adequate stocks position in the physical market also put pressure on the cardamom prices. Oilseeds: Mustard futures (Dec) will possibly continue its downtrend towards 3670 levels. The oilseed ruled flat in the Vidarbha region of Western Maharashtra in the absence of any worthwhile trading activity. Slackness in demand from millers and retailers against adequate stocks mainly pulled rapeseed oil prices down. Easy condition on international edible oil market also affected sentiment. Soybean futures (Dec) is expected to consolidate in the range of 3840-3910 levels, with upside being capped. Soymeal prices declined sharply on the spot markets on lack of demand from local traders amid increased supply from crushing plants. Easy condition in overseas market in last three sessions also affected sentiment in weak trading activity. U.S. soybeans rose for a second session on Monday to hit a near three-month high, while wheat hit a near one-month top as strong demand, confirmed by the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture export figures, underpinned gains. The USDA also said private exporters reported sales of 110,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for 2014/15 delivery. Malaysian palm oil futures crept lower on Monday after weaker-than-expected export demand made investors more cautious about taking risky bets, but losses were contained by hopes that rising biofuel consumption would keep prices supported. Other Commodities: Guar complex are likely to fall further considering weak domestic as well as international demand followed by increasing supply pressure of guar seed in the market. Meanwhile, Cumulative arrivals in the country of guar seed are reported to be around 490000 bags. Presently, export demand from US and China remained consistent but seen to increase by huge volume as US has already huge stocks in Houston as reported. Kapas futures (Apr) is expected to plunge towards 895 levels, as buying activity is expected to be tepid while arrivals are likely to increase. Degraded quality of cotton has been reported in crop of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, fetching lowe r prices. Sugar futures (Dec) is expected to remain below 2840 levels. Sugar mills in India's top cane producing state will soon start crushing cane after they temporarily resolved a dispute with the local government over how much to pay farmers. Uttar Pradesh has kept cane prices unchanged at 280 rupees per 100 kg. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to extend yesterday losses tracking subdued international markets. Gold (Feb) contract can move in range of 28500-29000 while silver (March) can trade in range of 44000-45000. Gold fell to the lowest since July after signs of a strengthening U.S. economy fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve is ready to slow the pace of its monetary stimulus. U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly accelerated in November at the fastest pace in more than two years. Gold is heading for the first yearly retreat since 2000, and silver is poised for the worst rout in three decades. Some investors lost faith in precious metals as a store of value as global equities rallied and inflation failed to accelerate. Global holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion tumbled 30 percent this year to the lowest since March 2010. Base Metals: Base metals counter can move in range with upside bias. Copper may trade in range of 440-452 while aluminum may trade in range of 106.50-108.50 in MCX. Battery metal lead can hover in range of 127.50-129.50 while zinc can move in range of 115.50-118. Copper fluctuated between gains and losses, trading near a one-week low as signs the U.S. economy is strengthening stoked concern that the Federal Reserve may soon start tapering its stimulus. The LME index of six industrial metals fell 13 percent this year amid forecasts for surpluses in materials from copper to aluminum. Fed policy makers may reduce their $85 billion in monthly bond purchases “in coming months ” as the economy improves, according to minutes of an October meeting released last month. The central bank next meets on Dec. 17-18. Energy: Crude oil counter futures can open on positive note tracking firm international clues .Investors will look forward to the OPEC meeting tomorrow and API inventory data today for further direction. Overall it can trade in range of 5840-5950 in MCX. West Texas Intermediate rose for a third day before a report tomorrow that’s forecast to show crude stockpiles dropped for the first time in almost three months in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Demand for crude from OPEC will remain near current levels in 2014, so ministers meeting in Vienna tomorrow will probably stick with a 30 million-barrel-a-day ceiling. Upside momentum may persist in Natural gas as it can test 255 in MCX amid winter demand on falling temperatures.
  4. 4. TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES IST 3:30 Economic releases USD Total Vehicle Sales Importance Expected Previous Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral Low 15.75M 15.15M Metal and Energy Favourable Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Updhayay Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651 You can also read this report on our website “www.smctradeonline.com” SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at www.tatacapital.com and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at www.ilfscapital.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.

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