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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report
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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report

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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in …

This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

Published in Economy & Finance
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  • 1. CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Oct) 20-Oct-14 3335.00 Down 28.07.14 3659.00 3500.00 Soy Bean (Nov) 20-Nov-14 3204.00 Down 05.08.14 3400.00 3350.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Sep) 19-Sep-14 618.10 Down 09.07.14 679.80 640.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Oct ) 20-Oct-14 575.60 Down 09.07.14 633.20 600.00 RM seeds (Sep) 19-Sep-14 3531.00 Down 06.08.14 3589.00 3650.00 RM seeds (Oct) 20-Oct-14 3554.00 Down 06.08.14 3643.00 3620.00 Turmeric (Sep) 19-Sep-14 6462.00 Down 23.07.14 6646.00 6800.00 Turmeric (Oct) 20-Oct-14 6634.00 Down 23.07.14 6646.00 7000.00 Jeera (Sep) 19-Sep-14 11185.00 Down 23.07.14 11675.00 11500.00 Jeera (Oct) 20-Oct-14 11275.00 Down 23.07.14 11675.00 11650.00 Chana (Sep) 19-Sep-14 2826.00 Sideways 04.07.14 2887.00 - Chana (Oct) 20-Oct-14 2907.00 Sideways 04.07.14 2887.00 - Cocud (Sep) 19-Sep-14 1775.00 Up 11.08.14 1752.00 1750.00 Cocud (Dec) 19-Dec-14 1483.00 Sideways 20.08.14 1511.00 - MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Sept) 15-Sept-14 948.00 Down 26.08.14 925.80 970.00 Cardamom (Oct) 15-Oct -14 932.40 Up 05.08.14 924.00 920.00 Mentha Oil (Aug) 28-Aug-14 684.40 Sideways 15.07.14 706.80 - Mentha Oil (Sept) 31-Jul-14 694.20 Down 08.08.14 709.40 720.00 SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 28th August, 2014
  • 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 27.08.2014) Silver (Sept) ($) 26-Sep-14 19.41 Down 19.08.14 19.41 20.80 Gold (Oct) ($) 29-Oct-14 1282.50 Sideways 21.08.14 1274.50 - Crude Oil (Oct) ($) 22-Sep-14 93.88 Down 09.07.14 102.29 96.00 Natural Gas (Oct) ($) 26-Sep-14 4.07 Up 11.08.14 3.97 3.65 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 27.08.2014) Silver (Sept) 5-Sep-14 41933.00 Sideways 22.08.14 41955.00 - Gold (Oct) 3-Oct-14 27780.00 Sideways 21.08.14 27747.00 - Crude Oil (Sep) 19-Sep-14 5675.00 Down 09.07.14 6116.00 5900.00 Natural Gas (Sept) 25-Sep-14 241.40 Up 06.08.14 242.30 225.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 27.08.2014) Copper (Aug) 29-Aug-14 422.85 Up 20.08.14 425.05 414.00 Aluminum (Aug) 28-Aug-14 125.80 Up 28.05.14 106.50 122.60 Zinc (Aug) 28-Aug-14 142.15 Up 20.08.14 143.10 138.00 Lead (Aug) 28-Aug-14 136.00 Down 18.08.14 134.20 137.00 Nickel (Aug) 28-Aug-14 1132.30 Sideways 18.07.14 1122.00 - LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 27.08.2014) Copper 3 Months 7030.00 Up 20.08.14 7010.00 6850.00 Aluminum 3 Months 2085.50 Up 02.06.14 1850.00 1920.00 Zinc 3 Months 2360.00 Up 20.08.14 2356.00 2230.00 Lead 3 Months 2264.00 Up 23.06.14 2177.00 2210.00 Nickel 3 Months 18850.00 Sideways 18.07.14 18660.00 - **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: Turmeric futures (Sept) is likely to consolidate in the range of 6350-6500 levels. Turmeric Finger variety traded higher Rs 100/100kg at the Nizamabad market on Wednesday. Fresh buying from local and upcountry consumers helped prices to gain in the spot market. On Wednesday, more than 500 bags of quality hybrid finger variety turmeric arrived for sale. The commodity fetched increased price. The traders also bought local root variety at increased prices. Jeera futures (Sept) would possibly take support above 11050 levels. Cumin seed prices gained by Rs 10/20kg at the Unjha market on Wednesday on fresh demand at the lower level. The buyers are mostly domestic, whereas overseas buyers inquiries at present is thin. Cumin prices in the near term are likely to trade flat with positive bias ahead of festival such as Onam and Dussherra. In the European market, cumin was offered at $1,975/ton, while it was available at $1,935 in Singapore 1% on FOB basis. Cardamom futures (Sept) is expected to consolidate in the range of 920-960 levels. Azhukal is the most severe fungal disease of cardamom is affecting the crop. The extended dry period before the onset of monsoon and the heavy showers in the past two weeks has damaged the crop. Lower arrivals reported from the first time picking of the current harvest season. Oilseeds: The downside in soybean futures (Oct) might get extended breaching 3300 levels due to dull global market especially for soy seed and soy meal along with poor demand of soy meal are leading to inactive participation from crushers. In Indore, soybean plant rates are in the range of Rs 37,300-37,500/ton on Wednesday. Soybean futures for November delivery declined 0.4 percent to close at $10.2375 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, after slumping yesterday to $10.1975, the lowest for a most-active contract since September 2010. Prices are down 21 this year. CPO futures (Sept) is expected to fall towards 440 levels. Malaysian palm oil futures lost earlier gains and ended lower on Wednesday due to a strong ringgit, while anxiety about swelling supplies of global edible oils continued to drag. Mustard futures (Sept) might remain below 3575 levels on account of account of negative crush margin due to lower demand of oil and meal at the prevailing prices. Other Commodities: Guar complex may fall further as bearish tone observed in Guarseed, Guargum at the major market across Rajasthan on Wednesday in the absence of demand and overcast condition in many guar growing belts. There is report of light rainfall in guar growing belts of Sri Ganganagar and surrounding regions. The short covering in mentha oil futures (Sept) might remain capped near 705 levels. Mentha oil prices were tad up in Sambhal market, whereas it was traded mostly flat in Rampur and Barabanki market of Uttar Pradesh. The higher production of synthetic mentha oil along with good demand has adversely affected mentha oil in the domestic markets. Sugar futures (Sept) is expected to consolidate in the range of 3030-3055 levels & trade with a downside bias. The activities at the spot marekt remained routine on back of need-based demand amid continuous supply from producers. Lack of demand from upcountry since long forced Maharashtra’s mills to offload their produce in State level markets. Vashi market also carries enough inventories keeping stockists away from increasing new stocks. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to open with positive bias as investors will eye the US GDP data scheduled today. On domestic bourses weak local currency can cap the downside. Gold can move in range of 27700-28000 while silver can hover in range of 41600-42400 in MCX. Gold advanced for a third day on increased tensions in Ukraine and as the dollar weakened, countering concern that U.S. interest rates could increase sooner than expected because of the strengthening economy. The U.S. said Russia may be directing a counteroffensive by separatist rebels in Ukraine. Fighting in eastern regions is spreading to previously peaceful areas, Jen Psaki, the U.S. State Department spokeswoman, said yesterday in Washington. Base Metals: Base metals may also move in range as US homes sales data will give further direction to the prices. Copper may trade in range of 420-426 while Lead may move in range of 135-138. Aluminum may move in range of 125-126.50. Nickel may move in range of 1125- 1140 in MCX. Zinc may move in range of 141-143. Copper traded near the lowest in almost a week after China reported industrial profit growth slowed and before economic expansion data today from the U.S. rofit growth at industrial companies in China slowed to 13.5 percent in July from 17.9 percent in June, the fastest rate in seven months. The U.S. economy’s pace of expansion in the second quarter was little changed from last month’s initial estimate, economists said in a Bloomberg survey. Energy: Crude oil may witness some short covering at lower levels as it may trade in range of 5650-5760 in MCX. West Texas Intermediate traded near the highest price in four days as crude and gasoline inventories shrank in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Crude stockpiles declined by 2.07 million barrels to 360.5 million last week, the Energy Information Administration reported. In Libya, production is projected to increase amid gains from the Sharara, Sarir, Waha and Harouge oil fields, said Mohamed Elharari, a spokesman for National Oil Corp. Output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries member was at 630,000 barrels a day yesterday, Elharari said. Natural gas may move in range of 235-245 in MCX as today inventory data will give further direction to the prices.
  • 4. IST Economic releases Importance Expected Previous Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral 13:25 EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. High 6.70% 6.70% Metal and Energy Neutral 13:25 EUR German Unemployment Change High -5K -12K Metal and Energy Favourable 14:30 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence Low -4.5 -3.8 Metal and Energy Adverse 14:30 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Low -10 -10 Metal and Energy Neutral 14:30 EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence Low 101.5 102.2 Metal and Energy Adverse 17:30 EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) Medium 0.00% 0.30% Metal and Energy Adverse 17:30 EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) High 0.80% 0.80% Metal and Energy Neutral 17:30 EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) Medium 0.00% 0.30% Metal and Energy Neutral 17:30 EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) High 0.80% 0.80% Metal and Energy Neutral 18:00 USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) High 3.90% 4.00% Metal and Energy Adverse 18:00 USD Personal Consumption Medium 2.40% 2.50% Metal and Energy Adverse 18:00 USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index Medium 2.00% 2.00% Metal and Energy Neutral 18:00 USD Initial Jobless Claims Medium 300K 298K Metal and Energy Neutral 18:00 USD Continuing Claims Medium 2500K 2500K Metal and Energy Neutral 19:30 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) Low 0.50% -1.10% Metal and Energy Favourable 19:30 USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) Medium -3.90% -4.50% Metal and Energy Adverse 20:00 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Low 88 Natural gas Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 683 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Upadhyay Research Associate Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651
  • 5. SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at www.tatacapital.com and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at www.ilfscapital.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. You can also read this report on our website “www.smctradeonline.com” DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.