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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report
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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report


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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in …

This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

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  • 1. CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Oct) 20-Oct-14 3510.00 Down 28.07.14 3659.00 3720.00 Soy Bean (Nov) 20-Nov-14 3297.00 Down 05.08.14 3400.00 3520.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Aug) 20-Aug-14 659.00 Down 09.07.14 669.20 680.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Sept) 19-Sep-14 647.80 Down 09.07.14 679.80 670.00 RM seeds (Aug) 20-Aug-14 3431.00 Down 06.08.14 3545.00 3620.00 RM seeds (Sept) 19-Sep-14 3453.00 Down 06.08.14 3589.00 3650.00 Turmeric (Aug) 20-Aug-14 6394.00 Sideways 07.08.14 6702.00 - Turmeric (Sept) 19-Sep-14 6596.00 Down 23.07.14 6646.00 6930.00 Jeera (Aug) 20-Aug-14 11160.00 Down 23.07.14 11445.00 11600.00 Jeera (Sept) 19-Sep-14 11240.00 Down 23.07.14 11675.00 11750.00 Chana (Aug) 20-Aug-14 2866.00 Down 04.07.14 2809.00 2900.00 Chana (Sept) 19-Sep-14 2889.00 Sideways 04.07.14 2887.00 - Cocud (Aug) 20-Aug-14 1758.00 Down 23.07.14 1655.00 1850.00 Cocud (Sept) 19-Sep-14 1782.00 Up 11.08.14 1752.00 1700.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Sept) 15-Sept-14 930.20 Up 05.08.14 924.00 900.00 Cardamom (Oct) 15-Oct -14 923.50 Up 05.08.14 924.00 900.00 Mentha Oil (Aug) 28-Aug-14 696.80 Sideways 15.07.14 706.80 - Mentha Oil (Sept) 31-Jul-14 709.40 Down 08.08.14 709.40 740.00 SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 18th August, 2014
  • 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 15.08.2014) Silver (Sept) ($) 26-Sep-14 19.53 Up 06.08.14 20.02 19.50 Gold (Oct) ($) 29-Oct-14 1305.40 Up 06.08.14 1307.40 1279.00 Crude Oil (Sept) ($) 20-Aug-14 97.35 Down 09.07.14 102.29 101.50 Natural Gas (Sept) ($) 27-Aug-14 3.78 Up 11.08.14 3.97 3.60 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 14.08.2014) Silver (Sept) 5-Sep-14 43263.00 Up 07.08.14 43814.00 42000.00 Gold (Oct) 3-Oct-14 28614.00 Up 19.06.14 27611.00 28000.00 Crude Oil (Aug) 19-Aug-14 5829.00 Down 09.07.14 6116.00 6000.00 Natural Gas (Aug) 26-Aug-14 239.40 Up 06.08.14 242.30 225.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 14.08.2014) Copper (Aug) 29-Aug-14 415.80 Sideways 13.08.14 420.45 - Aluminum (Aug) 28-Aug-14 121.05 Up 28.05.14 106.50 121.00 Zinc (Aug) 28-Aug-14 138.20 Sideways 08.08.14 140.30 - Lead (Aug) 28-Aug-14 133.75 Sideways 14.08.14 133.75 Nickel (Aug) 28-Aug-14 1129.40 Sideways 18.07.14 1122.00 - LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 15.08.2014) Copper 3 Months 6870.00 Sideways 06.08.14 6970.00 - Aluminum 3 Months 2000.00 Up 02.06.14 1850.00 1920.00 Zinc 3 Months 2272.00 Sideways 15.08.14 2272.00 Lead 3 Months 2215.00 Up 23.06.14 2177.00 2150.00 Nickel 3 Months 18670.00 Sideways 18.07.14 18660.00 - **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: Jeera futures (Sept) is likely to trade in the range of 11100-11250 levels with bearish bias. Factors such as lackluster demand from domestic and overseas market may keep lid on any short coverings. Estimates of higher production during the current year and carry forward stocks in the domestic market may continue to pressurize the prices at higher levels. Currently, in Unjha mandi, around 15 – 16 lakh bags of stocks is reported. The downside in coriander futures (Sept) may get extended towards 11400 levels. The spot prices are quoting down in Kota market amid supply of mostly inferior quality due to heavy rainfall in the region. Turmeric futures (Sept) would possibly witness another round of consolidation in the range of 6450-6750 levels. The gains may remain capped as the demand for yellow spice in the spot market is low due to absence of buying activity. Around 80% of the supplies coming to market contain inferior variety, hurting the trade activity. Cardamom futures (Sept) may manage to hold above 920 levels. A fungal disease - Azhukal is affecting the crop. The heavy showers in the past two weeks have damaged the crop. Oilseeds: Refined soy oil futures (Sept) is likely to trade with a bearish bias & fall towards 640 levels due to higher availability. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India cited that the import of soybean oil jumped to record level of 306,068 tonnes in July 2014. Current stock of edible oils as on 1st August, 2014 at various ports is estimated at 570,000 tonnes. CPO futures (Sept) may slide down towards 475 levels. India's palm oil imports rose nearly 10% to 657,750 tonnes in July as compared to the previous month. On the international market, Malaysian palm oil fell to its lowest in more than a year weighed down by projections of higher expected supplies. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed that the palm oil stocks rose to 1.68 million tonnes at the end of July. Mustard futures (Sept) may extend its downside towards 3445 levels. There are talks that the sowing may start a month early in the coming Rabi season in Rajasthan due to change in rain pattern. Soybean futures (Oct) may consolidate in the range of 3600-3675 levels. The area under soybeans stood at 103 lakh hectares as on 8th August 2014, down 12.70% as compared to last year. Other Commodities: The downside in Kapas futures (Apr) is likely to trade sideways in the range of 830-850 levels. In the current scenario, the demand is lackluster from the mills, whereas sellers are slightly aggressive as they anticipate prices to correct even more in the days to come. Chana futures (Sept) may continue to witness selling pressure from higher levels, facing resistance near 2960 levels. The fundamentals depict that there is sufficient availability in the spot markets to meet the upcoming demand. As per the latest statistics, at JNPT port, 10 container of Ukraine Kabuli chana and 34 container of Tanzania chana dal, arrived on August 11, 2014. At Chennai port, 8 container of chana arrived on August 11, 2014. Sugar futures (Sept) is expected to consolidate in the range of 3040-3110 levels with upside getting capped as supply is overweighing demand on the domestic market. There are estimates that the India will have enough sugar to last roughly four months when the new season starts in October. Sugar output in India looks likely to jump 4% percent to 25.3 million tonnes in 2014/15, the fifth surplus year in a row. The market participants on the international market would be focused on Unica's next crushing report in the coming weeks, which will cover the first half of August when weather was drier than in July. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to open in red tracking weak global clues. On domestic bourses weak local currency can cap the downside. Gold can move in range of 28300-28800 while silver can hover in range of 42800-43800 in MCX. Gold often gets a seasonal boost during the last few months of the year as summer winds down and jewellery and other manufacturers start stocking up on the precious metal ahead of autumn festivals in India, the Christmas holiday in Western nations and the Chinese New Year early in the following year. Base Metals: Base metals may witness some short covering at lower levels. Copper may trade in range of 412-420 while Lead may move in range of 132.50-135. Aluminum may move in range of 120-123. Nickel may move in range of 1120-1140 in MCX. Zinc may move in range of 137-140. Some profit booking in base metals counter was seen last week on china credit concerns. China’s plunge in credit expansion last month and unexpected slowdown in investment spending flashed warnings on growth that investors and economists bet will spur policy makers to expand stimulus. Indonesia’s ban on nickel ore exports is resonating globally as prices climb to the highest since 2012, prompting companies from Avebury Nickel Mines Ltd. to Poseidon Nickel Ltd. to restart operations at idled mines. Energy: Crude oil may open on mixed note in range of 5800-5900 in MCX. Crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York futures and the largest U.S. oil-storage hub, climbed by 418,000 barrels to 18.4 million. That’s the biggest percentage gain since January. Oil markets became more resilient to the threat of global supply disruptions because of spare capacity and softer global demand. Libya which has been struggling hard to push its exports finally shipped the first cargo of oil from Ras Lanuf since the port was shut by rebels a year ago. Natural gas may open with weak bias in range of 235-240 in MCX.
  • 4. SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. IST Economic releases Importance Expected Previous Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral 19:30 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (AUG) Medium 53 53 Metal and Energy Neutral You can also read this report on our website “” DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court. Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 683 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Upadhyay Research Associate Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651