SMC Global Commodity Daily Report

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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in …

This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

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  • 1. CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (June) 20-Jun-14 4399.00 Down 19.05.14 4454.00 4650.00 Soy Bean (July) 18-July-14 4255.00 Down 19.05.14 4386.00 4500.00 Ref. Soy Oil (June) 20-Jun-14 678.55 Down 19.05.14 686.55 690.00 Ref. Soy Oil (July) 18-July-14 659.85 Down 19.05.14 671.60 672.00 RM seeds (June) 20-Jun-14 3390.00 Down 19.05.14 3475.00 3500.00 RM seeds (July) 18-July-14 3439.00 Down 19.05.14 3527.00 3550.00 Turmeric (June) 20-Jun-14 5886.00 Sideways 06.05.14 6676.00 - Turmeric (July) 18-July-14 5992.00 Sideways 06.05.14 6844.00 - Jeera (June) 20-Jun-14 10805.00 Up 22.04.14 10430.00 10700.00 Jeera (July) 18-July-14 10910.00 Up 22.04.14 10540.00 10800.00 Chana (June) 20-Jun-14 2781.00 Down 19.05.14 2978.00 2930.00 Chana (July) 18-July-14 2846.00 Down 19.05.14 3043.00 3000.00 Cocud (June) 20-Jun-14 1475.00 Down 19.05.14 1523.00 1540.00 Cocud (July) 18-July-14 1520.00 Down 19.05.14 1572.00 1590.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (June ) 13-Jun-14 922.30 Down 28.05.14 922.80 960.00 Cardamom (July) 15-July-14 895.10 Sideways 21.05.14 933.80 - Mentha Oil (June) 30-June-14 827.00 Sideways 27.05.14 825.40 - Mentha Oil (July) 31-July-14 838.20 Sideways 23.05.14 854.00 - SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 9th June, 2014
  • 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 06.06.2014) Silver (July) ($) 29-July-14 18.99 Down 24.03.14 20.07 19.80 Gold (Aug) ($) 27-Aug-14 1252.50 Down 24.03.14 1311.20 1270.00 Crude Oil (July) ($) 20-June-14 102.66 Up 07.05.14 100.77 98.00 Natural Gas (July) ($) 26-June-14 4.71 Down 12.05.14 4.43 4.72 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 06.06.2014) Silver (July) 5-July-14 39997.00 Down 24.03.14 43949.00 41500.00 Gold (Aug) 5-Aug-14 25863.00 Down 21.05.14 27373.00 26800.00 Crude Oil (June) 19-Jun-14 6057.00 Up 07.05.14 6033.00 5950.00 Natural Gas (June) 25-June-14 279.00 Up 05.06.14 278.50 262.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 06.06.2014) Copper (June) 30-Jun-14 398.80 Down 06.06.14 398.80 415.00 Aluminum (June) 30-Jun-14 109.80 Up 28.05.14 106.50 104.00 Zinc (June) 30-Jun-14 124.05 Up 10.04.14 123.40 121.00 Lead (June) 30-Jun-14 124.00 Sideways 01.05.14 125.70 - Nickel (June) 30-Jun-14 1111.10 Sideways 15.05.14 1107.90 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 06.06.2014) Copper 3 Months 6688.00 Sideways 25.03.14 6603.00 - Aluminum 3 Months 1879.00 Up 02.06.14 1850.00 1750.00 Zinc 3 Months 2104.00 Up 10.04.14 2040.00 2000.00 Lead 3 Months 2109.00 Up 21.04.14 2142.00 2070.00 Nickel 3 Months 18875.00 Sideways 15.05.14 18750.00 - **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: The downside in turmeric futures (June) is likely to get extended towards 5800 levels. Spot prices of the yellow spice are decreasing due to poor quality of arrivals and slack upcountry demand. The stockiest have not received local orders also. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association sales yard, the finger turmeric fetched Rs.4,557-6,295 a quintal and root variety Rs.4,014-5,914. Cardamom futures (July) may trade in the range of 885-905 levels, tracking slack demand despite squeeze in supply at the auctions. The demand may pick up once the pipelines in the North Indian markets become empty. Moreover, good summer showers for over a week in the growing areas, coupled with indications of a timely onset of South-West monsoon. As reported, monsoon rains arrived over the Kerala coast. Jeera futures (July) is likely to fall towards 10800 levels. The arrivals are continuing in the domestic market mainly in Unjha mandi with higher quantity. In Jodhpur Mandi, inventories is reported around 1 lakh bags and production is expected in Rajasthan around 25 lakh bags (1 bag = 55 kg) which is higher by 25% as compared to the last year. Oilseeds: CPO futures (June) is likely to face resistance near 515 levels. Market participants would remain cautious ahead of the data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) to release data on Malaysia's end-May palm oil stocks, exports and production on June 10. Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance to release Malaysia's June 1-10 palm oil export data on June 10. Soybean futures (June) is expected to trade in the range of 4320-4450 levels. India's soymeal exports in May sank 91.5 percent from a year earlier to their lowest in 20 months, as higher soymeal prices prompted buyers to turn to competitor south America. Soymeal exports from India, Asia's top exporter of oilmeal, fell sharply to 8,226 tonnes in May from 96,492 tonnes a year earlier, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said in a statement. Mustard futures (June) is expected to trade with a bearish bias & remain below 3420 levels. Data from the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India shows that the sowing area under mustard seed has increased to 71.38 lakh hectare for the 2013-14 crop year (October to September), up 5.8 per cent from the previous year. Other Commodities: In days to come, negative sentiments may continue to hover on wheat futures. Export demand has virtually come to a halt and under diminishing export opportunity the producers are in intention to offload their produce in domestic market. As supply from new crop still continues, higher supply against lower demand may further pressurize the grain prices. The major importers have turned to Black Sea Region due to cheaper availability there. Mentha oil futures (June) would possibly consolidate in the range of 810-835 levels. The total sowing acreage of mentha oil is expected to decline by 20-25% in the current year. The total production of mentha oil in the current year is likely to be around 35-36 thousand tonnes against the previous year of 50 thousand tonnes. On the demand side, the total exports is likely to reach in the range of 21000 to 21500 tonnes as most of exporters are showing strong buying participation at current levels with the anticipation of limited supplies in next marketing season. Maize futures may fall further. The supplies from Bihar are picking up and keeping the overall sentiments under check. The export demand for Maize is likely to stay little weak following the recent spurt in Indian Rupee. Spot prices had tested a six week low. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to trade in thin range tracking mix movement in international markets. Gold futures fell from a one-week high as equities advanced, diminishing demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. On domestic bourses stronger local currency can cap the upside. Gold can move in range of 25700-26100 while silver can hover in range of 39600-40500 in MCX. Holdings in global gold ETPs are close to the lowest since 2009. More than $73 billion was erased from the value of the funds in 2013. U.S. employment returned to its pre-recession peak in May, with a solid pace of hiring that offered confirmation the economy has snapped back from a winter slump. Nonfarm payrolls increased 217,000 last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. Hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish bets in gold futures and options in the week to June 3 to their lowest level since mid-January, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday. Base Metals: Base metals may open in red zone tracking weak international markets. Copper may trade in range of 395-405 while Lead may move in range of 123-125. Aluminum may move in range of 109-110.50 Nickel may move in range of 1100-1120 in MCX. Zinc may move in range of 123-125. Copper traded near a four-week low as investors weighed improving economic data out of China and the U.S. against a metals-warehousing probe at a Chinese port. China’s exports expanded more-than-estimated 7 percent last month, while imports fell, data showed yesterday. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 217,000 in May, exceeding the pre-recession peak. Energy: Crude oil may move with positive bias in range of 6020-6100 in MCX. West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the highest price in three days amid signs that economic growth is being sustained in China and the U.S., the world’s two biggest oil consumers. China’s exports climbed 7 percent in May from a year earlier, according to the General Administration of Customs, while a Labor Department report showed U.S. employment exceeded the pre-recession peak for the first time. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said violence in the country’s east must end this week as peace talks with Russia began. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will probably maintain its production ceiling at 30 million barrels a day at a meeting in Vienna on June 11. Natural gas may move with positive bias in range of 277-285 in MCX.
  • 4. SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at www.tatacapital.com and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at www.ilfscapital.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. IST Economic releases Importance Expected Previous Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable/Neu tral You can also read this report on our website “www.smctradeonline.com” DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court. Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 683 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Upadhyay Research Associate Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651