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Report from WEF Davos 2009 - Presentation by Alec Hogg, Moneyweb

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World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2009.

World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2009.
A new world order dawns.

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Report from WEF Davos 2009 - Presentation by Alec Hogg, Moneyweb Presentation Transcript

  • 1.  
  • 2. WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
    • FOUNDED BY PROF
    • KLAUS SCHWAB IN 1971
    • “ Committed to improving the state of the world”
    • Research: 69 Global Agenda Councils, four meetings a year
    • Davos has record of setting year’s global economic agenda
    • 2009 Meetings: new records
    • 1 400 C EO /Chairmen
    • 41 Heads of Govt
  • 3. STRONG SA PRESENCE
  • 4. WORLD ECONOMY TODAY
    • STEPHEN ROACH:
    • Worst since WW2
    • Will contract in 2009
    • Demand side: US consumer
    • Supply side: Chinese producer
    • Decoupling is a myth
  • 5. WHERE WE ARE (1)
    • NOURIEL “DR DOOM” ROUBINI :
    • “ I was vindicated by an economic disaster”
    • W orst is yet to come
    • Banks must write off $3,6 tn (only $1,1tn so far)
    • Real threat of another Great Depression like the 1930s
  • 6. WHERE WE ARE (2)
    • RUPERT MURDOCH:
    • Past 12 months over $50tn in savings has disappeared
    • Getting worse; asset values still falling
    • Western World been living way beyond its means - “on a binge”
  • 7. WHY WE’RE HERE - 1
    • GEORGE SOROS:
    • Sept 15: Lehman bankruptcy, US economy fell off cliff
    • US economy now on “artificial life support”
    • Banking system collapsed like 1930s
    • Bad bank loans $1,5tn; total mkt cap $1tn
    • Efficient market hypothesis destroyed
  • 8. W HY WE’RE HERE – 2
    • MIND HAS TWO BEHAVIOURAL SYSTEMS:
    • SYSTEM ONE – Impulsive;
    • SYSTEM TWO – Reasoning, calculating
    • US Financial Crisis: A transition to System-One behaviour when people lost trust
    • The way to avoid fear and anxiety is trust
    • Obama has trust for now – can he keep it?
  • 9. T HE OBAMA FACTOR
    • VALERIE JARRETT:
    • Her boss Barack Obama calls on other leaders to “seize gladly”
    • Global collaboration duties
    • “ Embrace new era of responsible finance”
    • The return to values of honesty, hard work, courage, fair play, tolerance and loyalty
  • 10. NEW WORLD ORDER?
    • G20 not G8 – end of the Washington Consensus
    • US dominance has peaked, power shifted
    • New spirit of global collaboration
    • Return to a value-based society now top priority
    • Crisis presents an opportunity to address structural imbalances
  • 11. TEST ONE – LONDON
    • TOPPING AGENDA AT APRIL G20 MEETING
    • Resuscitate Doha Round of trade talks
    • Prevent protectionism, “Buy American”
    • Collective effort to tackle recession
    • Agree to bolster IMF, World Bank
  • 12. TEST TWO - COPENHAGEN
    • DECEMBER’S GLOBAL WARMING AGENDA
    • Obama’s US coming to the table at last
    • Launch of effective carbon credit trading markets
    • Fresh water scarcity on the agenda, becoming top priority
  • 13. THE CHINESE MESSAGE
    • WEN JIABAO
    • China’s economic fundamentals not changed
    • Big stimulus package, confident 8% GDP growth
    • Urges “Push for new world economic order that is just, equitable, sound and stable.”
  • 14. THE RUSSIAN MESSAGE
    • VLADIMIR PUTIN
    • Russia doesn’t need help from the West, thank you
    • Avoid trade barriers, State interventions
    • Asset measurements, ratings system must be revamped
    • US Dollar cannot be the only reserve currency in future
    • Integrity, hard work, responsibility lead to success
  • 15. THE INDIAN MESSAGE
    • ANAND MAHINDRA
    • India is less exposed than most; only 20% GDP is exports
    • 65% of Indians happy – good Monsoons mean good crops
    • In same boat as others: “India can paddle faster than most”
    • India’s strong economic growth of 8% to continue
  • 16. MESSAGE FROM BUSINESS
    • State involvement through bailouts must be temporary
    • Financial regulations must be strengthened globally
    • Calls for retribution for peddlers of toxic products
    • Want a return to the era when “my word is my bond”
    • Urge Governments not to lose sight of capitalism’s benefits
  • 17. OPPORTUNITIES IN GLOOM
    • TOP SECTORS –
    • SHIMON PERES (ISRAEL)
    • Alternative energy and fresh water
    • S tem cell research
    • Teaching and education
    • Security
  • 18. MORE OPPORTUNITIES
    • TOP SECTORS:
    • HAN SEUNG-SOO (KOREA)
    • Renewable energy innovations and the saving of energy
    • Convergence (“fusion” of media through broadband)
    • High value service industries including medical sector
  • 19. BEST INVESTMENTS NOW
    • Emerging Market Govt securities
    • Corporate bonds – risk has overshot
    • Infrastructure plays – construction sector
    • Corporate restructuring businesses about to boom
    • Alternative energy, including ways to reduce wastage
  • 20. TECHNOLOGY
    • MEGA-TRENDS:
    • Smart phones rule
    • Mobile Facebook
    • Twitter catching on
    • Youtube replacing TV
    • Cloud computing
    • Democratisation
    • Transparency
  • 21. VALUES MAKING COMEBACK
    • BEN ZANDER
    • “ Leadership is process of moving people from downward spiral to the art of possibility”
    DESMOND TUTU “ Essence of being human is a person is a person through other persons. You and I are created for togetherness.”
  • 22. FINAL WORDS ………
    • “ The harsh winter will be gone and spring is around the corner. Let us strengthen confidence and work closely together to bring about a new round of world economic growth.”
    • – WEN JIABAO, Premier of China, leader of one quarter of humanity