Mobile Software Development - 2008 to 2011 @ MoMo Tallinn 11.04.11

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Mobile Software Development - 2008 to 2011
Sven Kirsimäe
Mobile Monday Estonia / Reach-U
@ MoMo "Mobile Software Development Development - 3 years later", Tallinn 11.04.11

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  • The Dark Ages (2000-2004) – APIs from phones, monetization by operators.The Renaissance period (2005-2009) – smartphones, appstores (API is not enough), iconic product experience, opensource displacementThe Industrial Revolution era (2010-2014) – verticalization of top companies continue, consolidation of mobile OS big players, RTOS will become a legacy and replaced by lightweight versions of OS providers, new diverse set of formfactors emerge, developers can now act more independently from operators.
  • Screen sizes:Small – 20%Medium – 20%Large – 25%X-Large – 30%Supports Polyphonic Ringtones 75.5%Supports Streaming Video 64.1%Able to Download Video Clips 78.0%Supports WAP Push Messages 70.8%
  • India/AfricaScreen sizes:Small – 40%; Medium – 20%; Large – 32%; X-Large – 6%Supports Polyphonic Ringtones 85%Supports Streaming Video 68%Able to Download Video Clips 80%Supports WAP Push Messages 90%Ref: mobile_metrics_feb_09.pdf
  • India/AfricaScreen sizes:Small – 40%; Medium – 20%; Large – 32%; X-Large – 6%Supports Polyphonic Ringtones 85%Supports Streaming Video 68%Able to Download Video Clips 80%Supports WAP Push Messages 90%Ref: mobile_metrics_feb_09.pdf
  • The Dark Ages (2000-2004) – APIs from phones, monetization by operators.The Renaissance period (2005-2009) – smartphones, appstores (API is not enough), iconic product experience, opensource displacementThe Industrial Revolution era (2010-2014) – verticalization of top companies continue, consolidation of mobile OS big players, RTOS will become a legacy and replaced by lightweight versions of OS providers, new diverse set of formfactors emerge, developers can now act more independently from operators.
  • Rich media - web, apps, download content, mobile InternetUS media subscirbers higher – better 3G coverage + flat dataplans + bigger country :P to support all thisEU5= UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain
  • JavaME 3000 – Success defined in 2005iPhone 225000 – Success defined in 2010One of the major disparities is between the device installed base and the number ofapps per platform. One would expect that the platforms deployed on the largestnumber of devices would have the biggest number of applications. This couldn’t befurther away from the truth. For example, Java ME is available on around threebillion handsets, but the platform can boast less than half of the apps available for themuch younger Android, shipped in only 20 million devices as of the end of the secondhalf of 2010. Similarly, the Symbian operating system is deployed in around 390million handsets (end of first half of 2010), and claims over 6,000 apps, while Apple’siOS has achieved 30x more apps over just 60M units.
  • Developer bias. - across all eight major mobile platforms we surveyed, respondents felt that the best aspect of their platform was the large market penetration, even if the actual market penetration was relatively small.Learning curve and efficiency. The learning curve varies greatly across mobile platforms. Counted in multipliersMarket channels - Operator portals and ondevice preloading through OEM or operator deals is the primary channel to market for fewer than five percent of mobile developers surveyed. Our findings show that developers resort to either ‘native’ app stores, or to direct download via their own websitesDiscovery bottleneck. - lack of effective marketing channels to increase application exposure and discovery. Moreover, half of respondents are willing to pay for premium app store placement.Role of operators. Mobile developers view network operators as bit-pipes. Nearly 80 percent of respondents think that the role of network operators shouldbe to deliver data access anywhere/anytime, while only 53 percent considered their role to be delivering voice calls.Mobile web fragmentation:~60 different versions; ~12 vendors
  • - E-hääletushttp://www.vvk.ee/index.php?id=106104G– vastuvõtjad kallid
  • Mobile Software Development - 2008 to 2011 @ MoMo Tallinn 11.04.11

    1. 1. Mobile Software Development<br />2008 to 2011<br />Sven Kirsimäe<br />sven@momoestonia.com<br />
    2. 2. The Renaissance period<br />2005-2009<br />The final acts<br />
    3. 3. Smartphones 2008 (admob)<br />Sven Kirsimäe<br />3<br />
    4. 4. Smartphones 2008 (admob)<br />Sven Kirsimäe<br />4<br />
    5. 5. Smartphone OS 2008 (admob)<br />Sven Kirsimäe<br />5<br />
    6. 6. Smartphone OS 2008 (admob)<br />Sven Kirsimäe<br />6<br />
    7. 7. Market state 2008 highlights<br />India & Africa: 80-90% Nokia (Symbian)<br />SonyEricsson & Samsung is 2nd<br />Low-end non-smartphone devices<br />Smartphone traffic ~25% WW<br />iPhone traffic ~25% from smartphones WW<br />In 2008 OS WW share changes<br />iOS +30%<br />Symbian -20%<br />RIM, Win Mobile, Palm -10%<br />Sven Kirsimäe<br />7<br />
    8. 8. The challenges 2008...<br />Heavy fragmentation and learning-curve still present<br />J2ME, Symbian<br />iOSseems to be pushing hard<br />The best app distribution-model seen so far<br />Will it hold?Others?<br />Android platform is looking promising<br />how will it play out?<br />Apps, apps, apps, web is dead?<br />Distribution channels<br />Operators: US<br />OEMs emerging: Nokia OVI, Apple, RIM<br />Private: GetJar, Handago<br />Operators opening up?<br />traffic vs. service<br />Value in mobile SW development is bubbling up<br />Open-sourcing OSes<br />Android<br />Symbian<br />Sven Kirsimäe<br />8<br />
    9. 9. The Industrial Revolution era<br />2010-1014<br />The first act<br />
    10. 10. Smartphones 2008-2011 (VisionMobile)<br />2008<br />2011<br />Sven Kirsimäe<br />10<br />
    11. 11. Smartphone OS 2008-2011 (VisionMobile)<br />2008<br />2011<br />Sven Kirsimäe<br />11<br />
    12. 12. Looking back at 2010 (US/EU5)<br />Rich media usage:<br />US 47% of subscribers: +8%/y<br />EU5 37% of subscribers: +7%/y<br />Main reasons<br />3G penetration<br />Unlimited dataplans<br />~1/3 US; ~10% EU5<br />Smartphone adoption of full web browsing devices<br />~50% US (+46%); ~61% EU5 (+28%)<br />80% feature-phones shipped in 2010!<br />Attractive for J2ME/S40 (?)<br />Sven Kirsimäe<br />12<br />
    13. 13. Platforms used by dev till 2011<br />
    14. 14. Disparitybetween devices and applications<br />One would expect that the platforms deployed on thelargestnumber of devices would have the biggest number of applications.<br />
    15. 15. The challenges 2011...<br />New formfactors<br />already ~40 tablets on the market<br />what problem-domain will they solve?<br />SIM-enabled e-bookreaders, PCs, ...<br />Always connected devices<br />Mobile Cloud<br />3G network overload – will LTE/4G save us?<br />Developer bias<br />Developers mindshare migration between the platforms<br />Learning-curve and efficiency<br />Platformconcurrency<br />War-of-giants<br />Apple and/or Android?<br />Open vsclosed <br />Android restrictions on OS customizations<br />Nokia and/or HParesleeping dragons?<br />Fragmented mobile web<br />Role of operators<br />Market channels<br />Platform penetration matters<br />Discovery bottleneck<br />Vertical ecosystems prevail (?)<br />Sven Kirsimäe<br />15<br />
    16. 16. At the same time in Estonia<br />Skype releases disruptive mobile client<br />J2ME, iPhone and Android<br />Some small local players become big<br />LTE/4G reaches Estonia 2011<br />EMT 4G, expensive, 2015 releases some additional MHz<br />E-Voting<br />2007 -> 2011: 5.5% -> 24.3%<br />Mobile-ID: 2011 -> ~2%<br />Mobile Monday Estonia is still rockin’! <br />Sven Kirsimäe<br />16<br />
    17. 17. Thank You!<br />Sven Kirsimäe<br />sven@kirsimae.com<br />

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