The MalthusianGrowth FundInvesting in essential industries forgrowing populations.Frank Hollowell, Jason Langton, Molly Mc...
StrategyMission Statement                     StocksApproach             Food Production and Retail   PortfolioInvestor Po...
Essential Good, noun:A physical item required by a consumer in order to sustainhealth or life. Some essential good types t...
Hybrid Bottom-Up Approach:INDUSTRYEssential, Recession-Tolerant Goods       COMPANY       P/E, Beta, Return on Capital (3 ...
• The essential goods and services provided by our set of  industries are well positioned to take advantage of global  tre...
• This is a strategy for investors with high risk                            tolerance, looking for high risk and return  ...
AMC PM              PR TB                                                      • Philippines     • Thailand               ...
Booker Group      AVT Natural                                                                  PLC           Products Ltd....
Lululemon      Pacific Textile                                                         Athletica Inc   Holdings Ltd       ...
TRP IN        MERK IJ                                                           • India        • Indonesia                ...
AmeriGas       Severomoravska                                                                   Partners LP     Plynarensk...
Attock       Hankook Shell                                                             Petroleum Ltd     Oil Co Ltd       ...
Wilson Sons       Han Express                                                                      Ltd.           Co., Ltd...
Turk             City                                            Telekomunikasyon                                         ...
WSON11     014130    PLYK               MERK           AMC                    002960    LULU     1382   BOK         TTKOM ...
Local Market Risk   FX Risk   Total Risk     WSON11 BZ Equity (Wilson Sons Ltd)                8.51%          4.95%      1...
Efficiency Portfolio Frontier                  0.1                 0.09                 0.08                 0.07         ...
Portfolio Weights 125/25    40.000%                                                                 36.688%    30.000%    ...
Food Production                                              35%         Telecommunication               14%              ...
Czech                  Indonesia PhilippinesRepublic       United      11%       11% 0.01%         States                 ...
Malthusian                                                                       S&P 500               Statistic          ...
• Food prices, water scarcity, and aging populations are in                 the news on a daily basis   Relevance   • Your...
• Bloomberg LP Terminal, accessed April 2012.• “Daily Treasury Bill Rates,” U.S. Department of the Treasury  <http://www.t...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Malthusian Growth Fund - Investing in essential industries for growing populations

393 views

Published on

Proposed Fund with Sharpe Ratio of 1.04

The essential goods and services provided by our set of industries are well positioned to take advantage of global trends in demand – population, globalization and resource scarcity.

Demand for the essential goods in our portfolio are expected to be both recession tolerant and diversified over a variety of stable and growing sectors.

Our fund provides investors with a way to capitalize on this growth through strategically chosen companies with consistently successful strategies in their respective markets.

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
393
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
4
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • Ten companies with negative covariance; some with zero covariance; highest variance (AVT Natural Products) IS 4.6%
  • Hankook Shell Oil Limited, Korea – 0.0004%. Wilson and Sons Transportation Conglomerate in Brazil, which showed our highest foreign exchange risk – we are investing 36.68% in President Rice, which reinforces our original intuition behind increasing scarcity in food production.
  • Malthusian Growth Fund - Investing in essential industries for growing populations

    1. 1. The MalthusianGrowth FundInvesting in essential industries forgrowing populations.Frank Hollowell, Jason Langton, Molly McPherson, Lisa Schaefer
    2. 2. StrategyMission Statement StocksApproach Food Production and Retail PortfolioInvestor Portfolio Healthcare Covariance Clothing Efficient Portfolio Frontier Utilities Oil & Gas Weights Transportation Benchmarks TelecommunicationsAgenda
    3. 3. Essential Good, noun:A physical item required by a consumer in order to sustainhealth or life. Some essential good types that are produced bybusiness operators include food, water, gasoline and heatingfuel, as well as residential building materials that can be usedto construct homes for shelter. Source: BusinessDictionary.com
    4. 4. Hybrid Bottom-Up Approach:INDUSTRYEssential, Recession-Tolerant Goods COMPANY P/E, Beta, Return on Capital (3 years of fundamentals) COUNTRY Located in or exporting to high-population growth area Weighting: Equities Only 125/25 Strategy • Growth-focused fund • Allows more efficient diversification of • Included stocks with low variance to active management risk stabilize fund Approach
    5. 5. • The essential goods and services provided by our set of industries are well positioned to take advantage of global trends in demand – population, globalization and resource scarcity.• Demand for the essential goods in our portfolio are expected to be both recession tolerant and diversified over a variety of stable and growing sectors.• Our fund provides investors with a way to capitalize on this growth through strategically chosen companies with consistently successful strategies in their respective markets.Mission Statement
    6. 6. • This is a strategy for investors with high risk tolerance, looking for high risk and return High Risk potential. The objective of this strategy is to Tolerance seek high capital appreciation. • Fluctuations in portfolio value can be Long high, and is ideal for investors 20-30 years GlobalInvestment from withdrawals. Outlook Horizon • The focus on diversifying internationally and on essential goods in emerging markets will appeal to investors with a global awareness and familiarity.Investor Profile
    7. 7. AMC PM PR TB • Philippines • Thailand • Expected • ExpectedAlaska Milk Corporation: Produces Milk and Return: 5.09% Return: 4.68%Dairy goods for export and immediateconsumption. • Expected • Expected Variance: Variance: 1.03% 0.57% • P/E Ratio • P/E Ratio 18.77 18.75 • Beta YTD: • Beta YTD: 0.441 0.56 • Market Cap • Market Cap US$496 m US$208 mPresident Rice Products Ltd: Manufactures andexports instant rice and noodle to the U.S., MiddleEast, and Pacific Rim countries.Food Production
    8. 8. Booker Group AVT Natural PLC Products Ltd. • United • India Kingdom • ExpectedBooker Group, PLC is an internet-enabled grocerywholesaler for the independent sector utilizing a just- • Expected Return:5.31%in-time distribution system, and also operates cash and Return: 3.16% • Expectedcarry outlets. • Expected Variance: Variance: 4.40% 0.32% • P/E Ratio: • P/E Ratio: 23.53 18.69 • Beta YTD: • Beta YTD: 0.76 0.71 • Market Cap: • Market Cap: US$ 50 mAVT Natural Products Ltd. Operates plantations oftea, coffee, and vanilla; extracts colors and flavors from US$ 2 bnnatural sources; and supplies its products to the foodindustries in India and elsewhere throughout the world.Food Retail
    9. 9. Lululemon Pacific Textile Athletica Inc Holdings Ltd • Canada • Hong Kong • Exp Return: • Exp Return: 7.91% 5.49%Lululemon Athletica Inc: Produces athletic clothingincluding fitness pants, shorts, tops and jackets for • Exp • Expyoga, dance, running, and general fitness. Variance: Variance: 2.49% 2.86% • P/E Ratio: • P/E Ratio: 58.27 6.56 • Beta YTD: • Beta YTD: 1.26 0.47 • Market Cap: • Market Cap: US$ 10.8 bn US$ 951 mPacific Textile Holdings: manufactures customizedknitted fabrics used in a broad range offabrics, including mens, womens, and childrensClothingclothing.
    10. 10. TRP IN MERK IJ • India • Indonesia • Expected • ExpectedTorrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd: manufactures bulk drugs Return: Return:and pharmaceutical formulations. Focus: cardio- 4.30% 3.76%vascular, psychotropic, antibiotic. Subsidiaries in many • Expected • Expectedinternational markets. Variance: Variance: 0.71% 0.50% • P/E Ratio • P/E Ratio 20.89 14.4 • Beta YTD: • Beta YTD: 0.426 0.303 • Market Cap • Market CapMerck Tbk PT: manufactures pharmaceutical products; US$1.1 bn US$333 mdistributes pharmaceutical raw materials, chemicalsreagents, and medical instruments.Health Care
    11. 11. AmeriGas Severomoravska Partners LP Plynarenska A.S. • United States • Czech • Exp Return: RepublicAmeriGas operates an extensive storage and distribution 1.00% • Exp Return:network, using pipelines, barges, rail cars, and tanker trucks • Exp Variance: 1.65%to transport propane to local-market distribution locations. 0.20% • Exp Variance: • P/E Ratio: 0.33% 33.90 • P/E Ratio: • Beta YTD: 8.26 0.54 • Beta YTD: • Market Cap: 0.33 US$3.7 bn • Market Cap: US$97 mSeveromoravska Plynarenska A.S. distributes gas fromdomestic transfer stations to the North Moravia region. TheCompany also builds gas facilities including pipeline systems.Utilities
    12. 12. Attock Hankook Shell Petroleum Ltd Oil Co Ltd • Pakistan • South Korea • Exp Return: • Exp Return:Attock Petroleum Ltd: Operates gasoline filling 1.89% 2.98%stations in Pakistan and Afghanistan • Exp Variance: • Exp Variance: 0.40% 0.45% • P/E Ratio: • P/E Ratio: 7.28 10.75 • Beta YTD: • Beta YTD: 0.74 0.34 • Market Cap: • Market Cap: US$341 m US$253 mHankook Shell Oil Co Ltd: Manufactures and marketslubricants, grease, and other petroleum products used forcars, vessels, industrial machinery, and cutting tools. Oil and Gas
    13. 13. Wilson Sons Han Express Ltd. Co., Ltd. • Brazil • South Korea • Exp Return: • Exp Return:Wilson Sons has its principal operations divided into six 3.28% 3.72%business segments: port terminals, towage, logistics, shipping • Exp Variance: • Exp Variance:agency, offshore, and non-segmented activities. 1.27% 3.19% • P/E Ratio: • P/E Ratio: 32.57 4.36 • Beta YTD: .47 • Beta YTD: • Market Cap: 0.32 US$1.08 • Market Cap: billion US$21 millionHan Express Co. Ltd. provides land transportationservices. The Company specializes in transportingpetroleum and frozen products. Transportation
    14. 14. Turk City Telekomunikasyon A.S. Telecom, Ltd. • Turkey • Hong Kong • Exp Return: • Exp Return:Turk Telekomunikasyon A.S. is an 1.93% 4.24%integrated telecommunications services • Exp • Expprovider for businesses and individuals. Variance: Variance: 0.64% 1.63% • P/E Ratio: • P/E Ratio: 12.08 12.55 • Beta YTD: • Beta YTD: 0.85 0.43 • Market Cap: • Market Cap:City Telecom, Ltd. provides international US$ 15.3 US$ 456telecommunications services and fixed billion milliontelecommunication network services.Telecommunications
    15. 15. WSON11 014130 PLYK MERK AMC 002960 LULU 1382 BOK TTKOM 1137 BZ KS CP APU US TRP IN IJ PM PR TB APL PA KS US HK LN AVTH IN TI HKWSON11 BZ 0.0123014130 KS 0.0122 0.0310PLYK CP 0.0024 0.0034 0.0032 APU US 0.0021 0.0024 0.0005 0.0020 TRP IN 0.0059 0.0079 0.0013 0.0002 0.0096MERK IJ 0.0049 0.0062 0.0011 0.0013 0.0026 0.0069AMC PM -0.0003 0.0013 -0.0001 -0.0018 0.0039 -0.0007 0.0096 PR TB 0.0050 0.0052 0.0008 0.0005 0.0032 0.0014 0.0010 0.0063 APL PA 0.0025 0.0037 0.0011 0.0009 0.0014 0.0005 0.0000 -0.0003 0.0041002960 KS 0.0047 0.0074 0.0011 0.0007 0.0037 0.0035 0.0010 0.0029 0.0002 0.0067LULU US 0.0042 0.0004 0.0024 0.0007 0.0077 0.0038 0.0018 0.0002 0.0027 0.0015 0.02421382 HK 0.0093 0.0149 0.0013 0.0023 0.0081 0.0046 0.0030 0.0026 0.0026 0.0012 0.0039 0.0278 BOK LN 0.0038 0.0046 0.0005 0.0006 0.0025 0.0031 0.0012 0.0014 0.0010 0.0020 0.0016 0.0061 0.0048AVTH IN 0.0038 0.0125 0.0032 -0.0010 0.0074 0.0058 0.0017 -0.0001 0.0034 0.0063 0.0074 0.0046 0.0044 0.0486TTKOM TI 0.0025 0.0037 0.0021 0.0009 0.0016 0.0028 0.0000 -0.0009 0.0016 0.0018 0.0041 0.0020 0.0003 0.0043 0.00941137 HK 0.0045 0.0060 -0.0011 0.0008 0.0064 0.0031 0.0027 0.0033 0.0010 0.0039 0.0050 0.0048 0.0023 -0.0029 0.0000 0.0158 Portfolio Covariance
    16. 16. Local Market Risk FX Risk Total Risk WSON11 BZ Equity (Wilson Sons Ltd) 8.51% 4.95% 11.26% 014130 KS Equity (Hanexpress Co Ltd) 16.26% 3.43% 17.86% PLYK CP Equity (Severomoravska Plynarenska) 3.39% 4.49% 5.72% APU US Equity (AmeriGas Partners LP) 4.51% 0.00% 4.51% TRP IN Equity (Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd) 8.46% 2.99% 9.91% MERK IJ Equity (Merck Tbk PT) 7.05% 2.26% 8.41% AMC PM Equity (Alaska Milk Corp) 10.14% 1.81% 9.96% PR TB Equity (President Rice Products PCL) 7.53% 1.62% 8.03% APL PA Equity (Attock Petroleum Ltd) 6.35% 0.81% 6.48% 002960 KS Equity (Hankook Shell Oil Co Ltd) 6.72% 3.43% 8.28% LULU US Equity (Lululemon Athletica Inc) 15.78% 0.00% 15.78% 1382 HK Equity (Pacific Textile Holdings Ltd) 16.91% 0.13% 16.92% BOK LN Equity (Booker Group PLC) 5.68% 2.92% 7.01% AVTH IN Equity (AVT Natural Products Ltd) 20.99% 2.99% 22.37% TTKOM TI Equity (Turk Telekomunikasyon AS) 8.01% 3.52% 9.84% 1137 HK Equity (City Telecom HK Ltd) 12.76% 0.13% 12.76%Risk Breakdown - US View
    17. 17. Efficiency Portfolio Frontier 0.1 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06Expected Monthly 0.05 Return 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 Standard Deviation Expected Annual Return: 48% Sharpe Ratio: 1.039 Expected Standard Deviation, Annualized: 12.3%Efficient Portfolio: 125/25
    18. 18. Portfolio Weights 125/25 40.000% 36.688% 30.000% 20.032% 20.000% 17.377% 15.807% 16.876% 8.126% 10.000% 4.433% 2.240%% 2.156% 1.180% 0.086% 0.000% 0.000% -0.073% -2.709% -3.199% -10.000% -20.000% -19.019% -30.000%
    19. 19. Food Production 35% Telecommunication 14% Retail 4% Health Care Oil & Gas 12% 11% Utilities 13%Transportation 4% Household Goods 7%Industry Composition
    20. 20. Czech Indonesia PhilippinesRepublic United 11% 11% 0.01% States Thailand 14% 23% Brazil 12% Pakistan 12% Turkey 1% United South Korea Hong Kong Canada India Kingdom 2% 4% 5% 3% 3% Country Composition
    21. 21. Malthusian S&P 500 Statistic Growth Fund Expected Return 48.00% 12.11% Max 12mo Return 84.9% 23.41% Min 12mo Return 11.1% -48.59% Sharpe Ratio 1.039 0.62 Volatility 12.30% 18.88% S&P Summary based on data from Jan 2009 to Jan 2012.Benchmark: S&P 500
    22. 22. • Food prices, water scarcity, and aging populations are in the news on a daily basis Relevance • Your money will be supporting the growth of the firms that are leading the future in essential industries • Globally diversified, across uncorrelated industries, countries, and companies Stability • Investment in companies that produce essential, recession-tolerant goods, decreasing volatility • Significantly higher growth than comparable risk-targeted portfolios • Efficient risk management through 125/25 strategy Growth • Firms with a track record of exemplary performance • Goods that are subject to increasing scarcity and demand through population growthRecap
    23. 23. • Bloomberg LP Terminal, accessed April 2012.• “Daily Treasury Bill Rates,” U.S. Department of the Treasury <http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest- rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=billrates>.• Elton, Gruber, et al, Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis, 8th ed., Wiley, 2009.• Portfolio Research, <http://www.portfolioresearchllc.com>.• Solnik & McLeavey, Global Investments, 6th ed., Pearson Addison Wesley, 2009.Bibliography

    ×