50 Years of Growth, Innovation and Leadership                                 UNMANNED VTOL SYSTEMSAn Assessment of VTOL U...
Frost & Sullivan1. THE CONTEXT ..............................................................................................
Frost & Sullivan                    1. THE CONTEXT                    1.1 Initial considerations of the UAS market        ...
Frost & SullivanAs part of our recognised brand in the field, Frost & Sullivan has worked with the                   The g...
Frost & Sullivan                    Not purely driven by the diminishing government spending, albeit an important         ...
Frost & SullivanForce Multiplier vs. Troop WithdrawalAs the battle in Afghanistan comes to an end, at least from active ba...
Frost & Sullivan                          In addition, initiatives to promote and facilitate the use of UAS in non-militar...
Frost & SullivanFigure 2: Total Military UAS Market: Unit Procurement and RevenueForecast (Planned / Anticipated Programs)...
Frost & Sullivan                    Figure 3: Total Military UAS Market: Growth Position Map, Global,                    2...
Frost & SullivanFigure 4: Total Military UAS Market: Unit Procurement and RevenueForecast by Vertical (Planned / Anticipat...
Frost  Sullivan                    VTOLs ability to take-off and land in practically most mission areas gives it the      ...
Frost  SullivanThis includes a potentially high demand for security applications such as law                              ...
Frost  Sullivan                    Figure 5: VTOL UAS Applications Overview for Defence  Security                    The v...
#           #                                                                                                        Sourc...
Frost  SullivanFigure 7: Total VTOL UAS (Militar y) by Region (Units- Planned /Anticipated Programs), Global, 2011-2020   ...
#       #                                                                                     Source: Frost  Sullivan anal...
Frost  Sullivan                    The figure below presents the global demand for VTOL UAS in the long-term.             ...
Frost  SullivanThe complexity is primarily driven by the need to certify the total system(platform, data links, and contro...
Frost  Sullivan                        CONOPS driving platform selection: Vice versa is a no-go strategyEnd-user inhibitio...
Frost  Sullivan    Frost  Sullivan’s research has identified some of the key (non-exhaustive) elements    considered by en...
Frost  Sullivan                         On assessment of technical challenges and benefits, although non-exhaustive, the  ...
Frost  SullivanFigure 11: Frost  Sullivan Survey on Critical Success Factors impactingthe Selection of VTOL UAS for Defenc...
Frost  Sullivan                           Figure 12: VTOL UAS Market: Identified Business Models, Global, 2012       Frost...
Frost  SullivanFigure 13: Contracting Models- Service Based Contracts                                                     ...
Frost  Sullivan                    However, end-users, based on the perception from manned RW anticipate that the         ...
Frost  SullivanThe nearly 300 VTOLs (a conservative outlook) forecast over this decade areexpected to complement the missi...
Frost  Sullivan                    The industry is encouraged to continue with its efforts to build a convincing          ...
Frost  SullivanEnd-user Universe:Research indicates that the end-users although acknowledge the potential fordeploying VTO...
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UNMANNED VTOL SYSTEMS: An Assessment of VTOL UAS Adoption in the Defence & Security Sector

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UNMANNED VTOL SYSTEMS: An Assessment of VTOL UAS Adoption in the Defence & Security Sector

  1. 1. 50 Years of Growth, Innovation and Leadership UNMANNED VTOL SYSTEMSAn Assessment of VTOL UAS Adoption in the Defence & Security Sector A Frost & Sullivan White Paper Bruno Mucciolo and Aman Pannu www.frost.com
  2. 2. Frost & Sullivan1. THE CONTEXT .......................................................................................................3 1.1 Initial considerations of the UAS market..................................................3 1.2 Why are we writing on VTOLs? .................................................................3 1.3 Frost & Sullivan expertise in the Unmanned Systems Market..................3 1.4 Objectives ..................................................................................................42. INTRODUCTION: WHY VTOL ................................................................................4 2.1 Frost & Sullivan’s views on the current and future market of the UAS....4 2.2 The current market for VTOL UAS ..........................................................103. AN ASSESSMENT: ADOPTION OF VTOL IN DEFENCE & SECURITY.... ..............15 3.1 Operational factors impacting adoption of VTOLs ..................................15 3.2 Technical challenges and benefits in successful deployment of VTOLs.....19 3.3 Critical Success Factors: Potential business models for VTOLs ...............19 3.4 Benefit Analysis of VTOL UAS .................................................................224. CONCLUSION........................................................................................................23 4.1 Summary analysis of supply and demand for VTOLs ...............................23 4.2 Market recommendations ........................................................................24 4.3 Next Steps: Potential Roadmap of VTOL UAS .........................................255. GLOSSARY .............................................................................................................26 frost.com 2 CONTENTS
  3. 3. Frost & Sullivan 1. THE CONTEXT 1.1 Initial considerations of the UAS market Mission commanders immaterial from where they act, in-theatre, base camp or mission HQ thousands of miles away, have one common dependence factor- ‘Information’. Enhanced situational awareness, ability to conduct missions miles from its borders, and precision attack capabilities are some of the norms of today’s warfare. This type of force projection is primarily delivered using unmanned technologies, whether it is the original unmanned system, the satellites, or the latest unmanned aerial systems (UAS). With significant flight hours under its belt, the UAS are fast becoming a must-have item on the military inventory, and bar the regulatory challenges, the same could be true for the security domain. 1.2 Why are we writing on VTOLs? NATO categories defining the unmanned platforms include- fixed-wing (FW) UAS, rotary wing UAS (VTOL), and the morphing UAS (platforms that can hover and fly). Frost & Sullivan while researching the UAS market over the last decade, identified the industry’s confidence in the overall capabilities of the FW UAS technology and its applications. However, when it comes to the VTOLs there is much debate, and dare we say confusion with both end-users and the industry, in defining the technical and operational benefits of the VTOLs - independent, in comparison, and complimentary of substitutes and alternates such as the FW UAS, and the traditional manned platforms. For this reason Frost & Sullivan has undertaken the challenge to research the existing perception of the industry, and analyse the anticipated potential for VTOLs across the defence and security domains. 1.3 Frost & Sullivan expertise in the Unmanned Systems Market Frost & Sullivan is a market intelligence leader on the UAS domain, with over seven years of in-depth coverage of the market dynamics and evolution. Our Global UAS Programme, part of the Aerospace, Defence & Security practice, has developed thorough leadership analysis on the market for military UAS - from HALE to Tactical UASs - as well as the emerging civil market. As an ongoing programme, Frost & Sullivan has a dedicated team of analysts covering current and future market opportunities in the UAS sector, monitoring the evolution of this ever-changing market. As per its day-to-day activities, Frost & Sullivan has supported its main clients from the Defence and Security sector with detailed assessment of the market to support their strategic decisions and investment options. 3 frost.com
  4. 4. Frost & SullivanAs part of our recognised brand in the field, Frost & Sullivan has worked with the The growingEuropean Commission, EDA and other public entities by providing analysis on the dependence of defenceUAS market in order to increase awareness of the benefits of using the technology, and security end-usersto facilitate initiatives related to regulations for the civil UAS sector, and to define on real-timeoptimal strategies for governments and private sector on how to invest in the information aimed atunmanned idea. improving situational awareness for informed-effective1.4 Objectives decision making is driving the adoption • Increase market awareness of VTOL UAVs of the UAS across • Explore the challenges in successful adoption of VTOL technologies from multiple theatres and an end-user and industry perspective missions. • Provide tangible assessment of the target applications for the VTOLs2. INTRODUCTION: WHY VTOL2.1 Frost & Sullivan’s views on the current and future market of the UAS • Frost & Sullivan’s assessment of the global UAS market26th June 1935, Hampshire, United kingdom, the first unmanned plane made its firstpublic flight debut. Used for anti-aircraft gunnery practice, the radio controlledTiger Moth bi-plane was nick-named ‘Queen Bee’. Three-quarters of a century laterthe Queen Bee has given way to a beehive of unmanned aerial systems (UAS)deployed across a range of mission critical applications including surveillance,reconnaissance, earth observation, and target acquisition and elimination. However,it is in the last ten years that the unmanned systems have experienced a quantumleap in both, technology development and adoption.Despite the early mover advantage of the United Kingdom / Europe, it is Israel andthe United States who took the lead in the unmanned systems domain. Although,the experience of using mature unmanned systems on operational deployment hasdramatically improved the understanding of the usefulness of UAS in Europe andAsia Pacific, and this in turn is driving a steady growth rate across the militarysegment. The growing dependence of defence and security end-users on real-timeinformation aimed at improving situational awareness for informed-effectivedecision making is driving the adoption of the UAS across multiple theatres andmissions. The success of UAS in providing this real-time information to militarycommanders has contributed to both mission effectiveness and in protectingpersonnel. It is UAS effectiveness in these roles, which has encouraged mostadvanced militaries (and now emerging) to fully commit to the use of UAS and thisis expected to drive rapid market growth during the next ten years. frost.com 4
  5. 5. Frost & Sullivan Not purely driven by the diminishing government spending, albeit an important catalyst, the industry have moved beyond pure military sales and have shown a significant amount of interest in potential UAS applications in civil and commercial markets. In line with the prevailing trends across the defence sector, the military has acted as a first adopter of UAS and has demonstrated their utility, encouraging the idea of the use of UAS in a large number of non-military applications ranging from law enforcement and border security to earth observation and communications. Historically, industry has often been accused of unrealistic optimism in expecting the rapid emergence of a viable civil and commercial UAS market. However, at the same time industry has played an effective advocacy role in driving initiatives in the area, particularly in Europe and to some extent North America. • Summary of key drivers and restraints Whilst the military end-users in the developed countries have now battle tested the UAS, and better understand its capabilities and limitations, and more importantly mission types, their counterparts in emerging countries, including many western nations are unaware and somewhat skeptical of the real benefits of UAS. This skepticism is not always driven by lack of trust for the technology or unavailability of funds. Other restraints such as the force demographic, existing infrastructure, training, regulations, and even lack of established local industry dissuade end-users from actively adopting UAS solution, as an alternate or compliment to existing solutions. Figure 1: Drivers and Restraints Impacting the UAS Market Restraints • Troop Withdrawl • Defence Spending • Regulations & Legislations • -ve End-user Perception Drivers • Force Multiplier • Industry & Innovation • New Applications & Markets • +ve End-user Perception Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 5 frost.com
  6. 6. Frost & SullivanForce Multiplier vs. Troop WithdrawalAs the battle in Afghanistan comes to an end, at least from active battle troop’spoint of view, the war is not over. Industry and geo-political experts have indicateda need for NATO forces to be actively support the Afghan troops in combating themilitant elements from taking over the state. The withdrawal of troops around2014-2015, is expected to only further enhance the need for deploying UAS toprovide ongoing situational awareness, and to have battle ready engagement whererequired. UAS have proven to be a force multiplier for the NATO forces, and it isexpected that UAS will continue to be fielded within this theatre in the foreseeablefuture. Frost & Sullivan research indicates an increase in long-endurance platforms,such as MALE and HALE, with deployment of TUAV (and smaller) to support anyexpeditionary mission requirements.Industry & Innovation vs. Defence SpendingThe Global Defence Expenditure in 2010 was around $1,630.00 billion, which is anincrease of 1.3 percent when compared to that of 2009. Interestingly, this is theslowest annual increase since 2001. The rate of increase in the United Statesdefence spending had slowed down to 2.8 percent in 2010, while the average annualincrease between 2001 and 2009 was 7.4 percent. In Europe, defence spending in2010 fell by 2.8 percent. However, at the same time the military spending in Asiacontinues to grow rapidly. In the Middle East, the defence expenditure in 2010witnessed a growth of 2.5 percent when compared to 2009. The economicrecession has taken a toll on the Western nations and will force them to plan forsmarter expenditures in the upcoming days. Meanwhile, the aspirations of theemerging economies are expected to drive the defence market in the region.Over the last decade, the UAS have become weapons of choice in most militarycampaigns. The military forces have understood and acknowledged the need forunmanned aerial vehicle capability. In these challenging times the end-users arelooking for innovative ways and technologies to maintain full operationalcapabilities, and to meet the dynamic mission requirements of tomorrow. Industryhas proactively responded with innovation in technology aimed at versatility ofplatforms and applications, and improving efficiency, along with introduction of newbusiness models to support and sustain the end-users, which is driving the adoptionof UAS. Procurement models such as Platform Lease, Contracting for Availability(CfA)/ Performance Based Logistics (PBL), and Total Solution have given end-usersthe flexibility to adopt such solutions despite the given challenges. Frost & Sullivanresearch indicates that the increasing reliance on UAS complemented with theindustry efforts will limit the impact of budget cuts on UAS.New Applications & Markets vs. Regulations & LegislationsResearch indicates that the market potential on the civil side is considerably largerthan the military sector in the long term. UAS are being considered for active rolein maritime patrolling, surveillance, fire monitoring and fighting, HAZMATmonitoring, disaster management, search and rescue, counter drug operations,urban and sub-urban law enforcement, conflict monitoring, environmental andscientific missions, agriculture, fisheries, and many other applications. However, atthe moment there are major constraints: lack of a central procurement authorityfor government applications; absence of legislation and regulations for safe flight inintegrated airspace; dispersed and highly heterogeneous potential customer base; toname but few. frost.com 6
  7. 7. Frost & Sullivan In addition, initiatives to promote and facilitate the use of UAS in non-military applications have been relatively un-coordinated and ad-hoc in nature. Over the last The ultimate decision three years work has begun in earnest to kick-start the civil UAS market through a will be dependent on number of initiatives at national and European level, and in cooperation with the type of mission military users. These initiatives are primarily aiming to deal with the key problem requirements, the which is the lack of a framework / rules governing the flight safety on the one hand, interoperability with and insertion of civil and military UAS in non-segregated airspace on the other. However, some rules have been put in place. On the civil side, airframes with a mass existing systems, and of more than 150 kilos are now required to obtain airworthiness certification at a the end-users ability European level from the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). On the military to operate such side, the French Military Procurement Agency (DGA) have also developed systems. Unmanned Aerial Systems Airworthiness Requirements for fixed-wing UAS, which has been adopted as the basis of NATO’s STANAG 4671. +ve End-user Perception vs. –ve End-user Perception End-user perception is driven by varied factors, as indicated earlier. The adoption of UAS is restrained due to economic, political, social, and technological factors. Most NATO nations have accumulated significant mileage in flight heritage for UAS, and are actively deploying or are in the process of adopting the UAS as an integral part of the defence strategy. However, countries that are not as combat active as the NATO allies, and others that lack the technical and financial prowess of developing such systems, have not fully embraced the benefits of UAS. As a result there are two force types today, ones that have UAS capability, and the ones that do not. However, daily headlines of the effectiveness of such systems in theatre is not going unnoticed, and countries across the globe including India and China understand the need to go on a war-footing to equip the national forces with UAS capabilities. Another aspect that the end-users are progressively contemplating and finding solutions for is to find the best fit UAS for conducting specific missions. The emergence of VTOLs is driven by such an approach wherein the FW UAS are limited to areas of operation due to the required landing and take-off logistics. The ability of VTOLs to be launched in almost any terrain, static or mobile, has provided the impetus to explore and introduce VTOL UAS in the mission inventory. Research indicates that an active adoption of UAS across defence and security applications needs a combination of end-user acceptance and industry engagement besides the PEST factors discussed above. Speaking with various industry stakeholders indicates that end-users widely acknowledge the success of UAS, and are actively exploring options that are best suited for their own forces. The ultimate decision will be dependent on the type of mission requirements, the interoperability with existing systems, and the end-users ability to operate such systems. • Views of the Future The major military forces in the world have understood and acknowledged the need for UAS capability. Though many nations have strong UAS aspirations, availability of funds reflects the actual market revenues. 7 frost.com
  8. 8. Frost & SullivanFigure 2: Total Military UAS Market: Unit Procurement and RevenueForecast (Planned / Anticipated Programs) 8,000 250 7,000 200Revenue ($ Million) 6,000 5,000 150 Units 4,000 3,000 100 2,000 50 1,000 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Year 4.547.6 6,082.0 5,482,0 6,041.0 6,253.0 6,024.0 5,715.0 5,679.0 5,818.0 6,969.0 7,314.0 103 153 178 173 178 177 181 168 190 220 224 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysisFrost & Sullivan’s research indicates the following demand trends for UAS globally; • The spending by the United States for mid- and large-sized UAS will decrease from $5.09 billion in 2011 to $2.35 billion in 2020. This reduction in spending by the United States is expected to slow down the global UAS market which will be partly compensated by the European and Asian markets. • Asia Pacific and European markets will witness a growth rate of 26.3 percent and 20.3 percent, respectively, from 2010 to 2020. • Competition in MALE UAS segment will be intense in Europe, as there is a trend of increasing collaborations to develop such capabilities. • The Asian market has a strong immediate demand for high altitude, long endurance (HALE) and medium altitude, long endurance (MALE) UAS. During 2011 to 2020, 41 HALE and 202 MALE UAS are expected to be procured in the APAC region. • The Middle East and Latin American markets are largely untapped. Middle East and Latin American markets are expected to grow at rate of 15.1 percent and 19.3 percent, respectively from, 2010 to 2020. frost.com 8
  9. 9. Frost & Sullivan Figure 3: Total Military UAS Market: Growth Position Map, Global, 2010–2020 High 1 Sectors with highest total 2 growth 4 potential 3 CAGR 1 - APAC 2 - Europe 5 3 - Middle East 4 - Latin America Low Small Medium Large (<$15 B) ($15 B - $30 B) (>$30 B) 5 - North America Market Size Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis • Ongoing military operations and force modernisation efforts are the major drivers for the military UAS market. • Withdrawal from Afghanistan will have a short-term impact on the UAS market, as the existing lease agreements will come to an end. However, a need to sustain situational awareness, geo-political dominance in the region will demand a rethink of strategy. • In the long term, withdrawal from Afghanistan will turn into a driver, as the countries will be able to allocate resources for equipment procurements. • The global market for medium and large sized VTOLs is still nascent. Although ongoing development programmes (and limited in-service) are gaining traction with the end-users in active deployment of VTOL systems for niche applications. 9 frost.com
  10. 10. Frost & SullivanFigure 4: Total Military UAS Market: Unit Procurement and RevenueForecast by Vertical (Planned / Anticipated Programs) ,)+ ‘Flexible-Deployable- Responsive’ surmises ,++ the end-users perception of VTOL platforms with an aim Units *)+ to deliver specific mission requirements *++ )+ + ,+*+ ,+** ,+*, ,+*( ,+*$ ,+*) ,+* ,+* ,+*% ,+* ,+,+ ,+ (+ ,% (, ,$ (* (+ ,, (* ,% ,( ! ) ( $ % % %+ %( %+ *+% *, *, ! , ) ( $ *( *+ *+ * * , (+ ! ,, ,) )( $% )$ ) )% )+ (, ( $$ Source: Frost Sullivan analysis2.2 The current market for VTOL UASAt the time of writing this white paper Frost Sullivan followed about fifteen differenttypes of VTOL UAS (some deployed, many in advanced development stages), of whichtwo were fielded within 24 hours of each other. It is essential to note that of these asignificant number are driven by industry led research and development programmes,a sign of industry’s belief in the technology and potential applications that areexpected to drive demand. While the Fixed Wing (FW) UAS have been widely deployedwithin the defence (and security, albeit partially) domain, the Rotary Wing (RW) UAS-VTOL are yet to have a foothold within these domains. The confusion clouding thetechnical ability or complexity of deploying VTOLs to fulfill mission requirementscontinues to challenge both, the end-user and the industry.Frost Sullivan, through this white paper based on primary research conductedacross industry experts and end-users aims to bring forth the drivers and restraintsinfluencing the successful adoption of VTOLs in-theatre. • End-user Perception of VTOLs‘Flexible-Deployable-Responsive’ surmises the end-users perception of VTOLplatforms with an aim to deliver specific mission requirements. End-users indicatethat in time as VTOLs establish proven flight heritage, they will actively participate insupporting defence and security mission requirements. However, most if not all end-users foresee the deployment of VTOLs, although essentially in niche mission areaswhen compared to the broader scope of FW UAS and other manned platforms. frost.com 10
  11. 11. Frost Sullivan VTOLs ability to take-off and land in practically most mission areas gives it the flexibility to be deployed in situations that demand rapid response. The expeditionary nature of today’s battles has led to increase in demand for real-time situational awareness, and operationally responsive equipment. VTOLs have a unique ability to fulfill this task and support the expeditionary forces of today immaterial of the terrain. It is this ability to deploy from mobile platforms that has attracted Naval forces, including Coast Guards to explore the acquisition of VTOLs on board its fleet. End-users, similar to UAS, look at VTOL as a force multiplier, enabling fleet commanders to undertake tasks and make decisions in a more informed and responsive manner. However, end-users are vary of introducing VTOL systems within the larger battle management system without clearly defining the mission requirements VTOLs best fit. Research indicates that some of the most important questions that end-users want the industry to answer are; - What will the platform be used for? - How will the platform support a mission? - What is the value-add: technology, cost, process, efficiency, applications etc? A single task such as Anti-Piracy mission may have multiple scenarios and requirements. The end-user needs will define the capabilities of a VTOL platform- ISR capable, weaponised or non-weaponised, monitor or engage enemy. Frost Sullivan research identified an end-user expectation, which proposes that the industry should focus on concept of operations (CONOPS). This CONOPS should then be used to develop the platforms, rather than doing it vice-versa, wherein the capabilities / limitations of platforms define the missions it can be deployed to. • Industry Perception of VTOLs An important question to answer for the industry is that are VTOLs an innovation or an adoption of existing solutions. Interestingly enough this is a chicken and egg dilemma for the industry. What came (comes) first? Frost Sullivan research indentified dual approach from the industry in developing the same solution- an efficient, and easy to use and deploy VTOL UAS. One group of industry participants are focusing on developing the platform, which would then be loaded with systems and capabilities that apply to multiple missions. The other group is focused on developing systems and sub-systems integrated into a platform solution, which can then be applied to multiple missions. The advocates of the latter believe that this approach ensures that VTOL capabilities are custom designed to operate across multiple mission areas. This also takes into consideration the complexities originating from the deployment of a RW platform, such as vibration, wear and tear, and noise levels. However, this approach tends to have longer development cycles and potentially higher development costs, which are critical success factors in selecting defence and security solutions today. Independent of the above discussion, the industry perceives that VTOL UAS with its ability to conduct stop and go missions, capability to hover and focus on a particular area, and ability to take-off and land in most terrains presents a unique value proposition for end-users. In the current circumstances where the regulatory frameworks for integration into the civil airspace are yet to be clearly defined, VTOLs are considered an apt solution for operating in high risk, segregated airspace, which requires a responsive solution. 11 frost.com
  12. 12. Frost SullivanThis includes a potentially high demand for security applications such as law Frost Sullivanenforcement, first responder services, fire fighting and monitoring, disastermanagement, crowd monitoring and control etc. Despite the progress in technology research indicates thatand platform development, industry acknowledges the need to make further the main end-users foradvances in areas of endurance, platform stability, automatic-mobile landing, and VTOL UAS areoverall efficiency. However, the current platforms are capable to meet the mission military and civilrequirements of today. As VTOL UAS accumulate operational flight hours, the operators, each withproduct and technology will continue to evolve to meet the future requirement of different drivers andthe end-users, a product lifecycle pattern similar to the now experienced FW UAS,and the more mature manned platforms. challenges. • Current Estimate of Market Size for VTOLsThe market for VTOL UAS systems is in its early stage. Requirements seem not tobe clear amongst end-users, who mostly are conducting experiments with thetechnology today. Technology reliability is still the key factor to convince end-usersof the benefits of VTOL systems, and to assist them to better shape theirrequirements. Frost Sullivan research indicates that the main end-users for VTOLUAS are military and civil operators, each with different drivers and challenges. Thecivil domain does not yet represent a real market given airspace regulations andcertification issues. However, once regulations come into place (likely around 2017)the market will see a major boom. As for the Military / Defence, particularlydeveloped nations (those who historically adopt new technologies and logically areinitial customers) are today heavily suffering from budget limitations. Researchindicates that Advanced / Modern Armed Forces want to deploy VTOL systems.However, technical requirements (again reliability as the key factor) are yet toimpress military operators and convince budget holders of its cost-benefits. Asnoted earlier, maritime patrol (persistence and tactical surveillance) is the keyapplication for the military. The table below presents the Frost Sullivanassessment of the main VTOL applications across market verticals.Over the period 2011-2020, Frost Sullivan research indicates circa 300 VTOL UASunits to be inducted across the globe. Defence and Security applications in the AsiaPacific markets are expected to create a leading demand for VTOL UAS, accountingfor more than a third of the total demand over this decade. Defence Security Natural Disaster Army Air Force Navy Law Fire Fighting Monitoring Enforcement / Safe Cities • Border • Climate Security • Maritime • Border Monitoring • Convoy Patrol Security • Forest Fires • Aerial • Persistent Photography, Protection • Anti-Piracy • Coastguard Surveillance Mapping and • Force • Search • Emergency • Urban Fire Surveying Protection Rescue Rescue (e.g. Tactical Support • Recce • Seismic Events (bases) Support Mountain • Major Incident • Counter-IED Rescue) and Pollution Monitoring Source: Frost Sullivan analysis frost.com 12
  13. 13. Frost Sullivan Figure 5: VTOL UAS Applications Overview for Defence Security The volatility of the Middle Eastern region, and the need to protect the critical oil reserves, boosted by the recent relaxation of US regulations in selling unmanned systems to the region has lead to the procurement drive for UAS. Research indicates a move towards procurement of VTOL UAS aimed at maritime patrol and law enforcement requirements. Withdrawal from Afghanistan will temporarily temper the demand for procurement of new technologies / products such as the VTOL UAS in both US and European markets. However, this is mainly expected to last over the current decade, which can be considered as platform validation phase for VTOLs across multiple end-users and applications. Figure 6: Total VTOL UAS (Military) by Region (cumulative units), Global, 2011-2020 +,) ,$ $**) $* () !# # !# !#
  14. 14. # # Source: Frost Sullivan analysis The VTOL UAS markets in the US and Europe are expected to experience a boom post 2020, when the existing fleet of UAS is expected to be upgraded or changed, giving way for a mixed fleet of FW and RW UAS complimenting the manned platforms. 13 frost.com
  15. 15. Frost SullivanFigure 7: Total VTOL UAS (Militar y) by Region (Units- Planned /Anticipated Programs), Global, 2011-2020 The experience gained () in the new markets is expected to contribute (+ towards the validation and eventual adoption ,) of VTOL UAS in the VTOL UAS (units) wider markets. ,+ *) *+ ) + ,+** ,+*, ,+*( ,+*$ ,+*) ,+* ,+* ,+*% ,+* ,+,+ !# # !# !#
  16. 16. # # Source: Frost Sullivan analysisPlease note that the above forecast includes planned and anticipated UAS systems asof 2011. The forecast considers VTOL UAS within the following classifications; - Range (km): up to 200 - Altitude (ft): up to 20,000 - Endurance (hrs): 5-8 - Weight (kg): up to 1430The current market might present a fragile outlook, with most VTOL solutions indevelopment stage. Frost Sullivan anticipates that the industry and the end-userswould overcome the interim challenges - technical, regulatory, and operational overthis decade. Frost Sullivan envisages that the desire to modernise the armedforces, and plans to enhance the in-country capabilities, especially in emergingcountries such as India and Brazil will drive procurement of VTOL UAS in bothdefence and security domains. Recent procurements in the Middle East indicate, inthe short to midterm, a greater potential for uptake of such technologies, incomparison to the western nations.This is mainly due to the ongoing economic crisis, and somewhat higher importanceto regulatory frameworks in the western nations. The experience gained in the newmarkets is expected to contribute towards the validation and eventual adoption ofVTOL UAS in the wider markets. frost.com 14
  17. 17. Frost Sullivan The figure below presents the global demand for VTOL UAS in the long-term. Figure 8: Global Demand Map for VTOL UAS High Demand Markets ( 20 VTOL Systems) Medium Demand Markets (5 20 VTOL Systems) Low Demand Markets ( 5 VTOL Systems) Source: Frost Sullivan analysis 3. AN ASSESSMENT: ADOPTION OF VTOL IN DEFENCE SECURITY 3.1. Operational factors impacting adoption of VTOLs Prohibitive Frameworks Impeding Adoption When it comes to regulations and operational standards, including integration into the Civil airspace, VTOLs are up against similar challenges to that of the FW UAS. Current regulatory frameworks limit the deployment of UAS in most missions pertaining to security domain. VTOLs could have a slight advantage in this context wherein they are deployed in localised areas, in a segregated space. In context of Military operations, where most missions are within segregated space, the impact of regulations is somewhat limited. However, defence and security applications in some regions interface seamlessly, especially when considering border surveillance and coastal patrolling. In such markets it is crucial that the key regulations are defined prior to adoption of UAS into active service. In consideration of these limitations, most civil applications are, as of today, based on VLOS (Visual Line of Sight) missions. However, it is anticipated that the ongoing industry efforts, mostly in Europe and the US, will lead to much defined regulatory framework when it comes to operating UAS in civilian airspace. Frost Sullivan research indicates a potential adoption of such guidelines around 2017. When it comes to certification, the ongoing work within this area is promoting the adoption of most (relevant) certifications that are applicable for manned platforms. However, when considering the UAS systems, the certification process becomes more complicated. 15 frost.com
  18. 18. Frost SullivanThe complexity is primarily driven by the need to certify the total system(platform, data links, and control station), only then a UAS is certified to fly. Thetime and cost effort involved can make the UAS solution prohibitive for both theindustry and the end-users. Frost Sullivan research indicates a high level ofoptimism within the industry when contemplating the impact of defined regulationsand certifications on the adoption of VTOLs within the civil security domain.However, the end-users are somewhat skeptical of the specific impact for VTOLs,although they anticipate a larger participation of UAS (RW / FW) postimplementation of defined regulations. In the chart below Frost Sullivansummarises the potential roadmap for defining and implementing regulations andcertifications for UAS, and the principal factors governing the evolution of theEuropean civil UAS market.Figure 9: Principal Factors Governing the Evolution of the EuropeanCivilian UAS market 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 and beyond ATM and Airworthiness Certification (EUROCONTROL and EASA) Evolutionary development of a regulatory framework governing usage of civilian UAS in European controlled airspace (based on MASPS, then MOPS produced from EUROCAPE’s WG-73 and RTCA’s SC-203 recommendations) Ad hoc Exemptions on demand are replaced by the phased introduction of Regulation (EUROCONTROL) standards and regulations, each with limited coverage, as and when these are Roll-out of comprehensive agreed and become available legislation which emerges from the above recommendations No national, European nor global Radio Frequency (RF Spectrum and Bandwidth Allocation (ITU) strategy or framework for UAS RF UK only = Ofcom. Initial discussions and proposall towards agreement on spectrum allocation of allocation. (Local, ad hoc RF bandwidth for European Civillian UAS at ITU conference (WCF) in 2011. Availability of allocations on demand) spectrum possible from 2015, meanwhile EDA looking at an interim solution for Europe Technology (EDA, EUROCAE) EDA project to develop working SA, datalinks, including for C2 etc. Emerging Propulsion and Materials Technologies Introduction of fuel cells and revolutionary aerodynamics such as variable aerofoil and increasing use of lighter, composite materials Source: Frost Sullivan analysisVTOL manufacturers for starters should ensure that the systems are ceritifiedwithin the existing framework. Frost Sullivan research indentified the NATOStandardisation Agreements for procedures, systems and equipment components,STANAG, as most relevant available / starting point standards to be considered indeveloping UAS, including VTOLs, this includes; - STANAG 4660: Interoperable Command and Control Data Link - STANAG 4670: Training Requirements - STANAG 4671: UAV Systems Airworthiness Requirements - STANAG 4586: Data Link Interface, and Command and Control InterfaceIt is essential to provide a certain degree of flexibility when designing the systems,such that the system can be adapted to national level standards with limited impacton system cost and / or capabilities. frost.com 16
  19. 19. Frost Sullivan CONOPS driving platform selection: Vice versa is a no-go strategyEnd-user inhibitionsin deploying VTOLs / Frost Sullivan research brought forth a key concern of the end-users, who are challenged by the Industry pitching high tech platforms, with limited insights intoUAS primarily stem the CONOPS and the related requirements. End-users engage better with capabilityfrom the dilemma of based solutions that reflect the core mission and operational requirements,how the system can be generating a higher value proposition. The expeditionary nature of today’s missionsdeployed within the could benefit from the VTOL capabilities, which enables rapid response to high riskexisting and future scenarios. Ability of the VTOLs to be deployed rapidly, from most terrains, includingrequirements of a mobile platforms is seen as a convincing capability to deploy within the military environment. However, end-users are aware of challenges, which have traditionallymission. limited the deployment of RW platforms in specific missions only, and impose similar limitations on the deployment of VTOLs. These include comparatively slower speeds, with limited endurance when pitched against the FW UAS. Frost Sullivan discussions with the end-users indicate that VTOL capabilities are best fit for specific missions. Missions requiring sustained / focused surveillance and maneuvering flexibility benefit from the VTOL ability to hover on defined mission targets, and may not be relevant for FW solutions. The ability to conduct ‘stop go’ missions independent of the terrain enables VTOLs to be deployed as a significant force multiplier. End-users have indicated the effective use of VTOL as dormant assets across enemy lines, activated in event of a situation / conflict. Recent development plans have focused on using the VTOL platforms for logistics tasks, although this may for now be focused on in-theatre requirements, operating in a defined segregated space. There is much a-do about deploying VTOLs for MEDEVAC missions, including a NATO programme exploring similar options. However, the cost of certifying a VTOL UAS for manned operations, for now is considered prohibitive. Significant work needs to be undertaken to: - design reliable systems for manned operations; - resolve operational challenges of conducting life saving operations in high risk scenarios; - overcome general perception of deploying UAS for manned operations. VTOL may not be the most suitable platforms for large area coverage, due to the comparatively lower endurance levels (this is an end-user perception despite introduction / ongoing development of some longer endurance VTOLs). Taking for example maritime missions, at present the most relevant applications for VTOL are focused on short mission runs, including providing better situational awareness in event of anti-piracy missions. The wider end-user perception is that deploying VTOL on long endurance missions may not be as cost efficient as deploying FW UAS. Most VTOLs are categorised under the TUAS segment, which brings forth an operational limitation, such that the flight ceiling of VTOLs makes them vulnerable to ground attack. End-user inhibitions in deploying VTOLs / UAS primarily stem from the dilemma of how the system can be deployed within the existing and future requirements of a mission. Industry’s ability to clearly state the capabilities of the VTOL systems in terms of ‘See, Sense, Strike’ need to fit the operational requirements of a mission. Taking the case of an anti-piracy mission, it is critical to understand the end-user mission requirements. 17 frost.com
  20. 20. Frost Sullivan Frost Sullivan’s research has identified some of the key (non-exhaustive) elements considered by end-users in deploying VTOLs for such missions; - What does an anti-piracy mission entail- surveillance, deterrence, engagement? - What does the end-user want to fulfill this mission- weaponised / non-weaponised? - What is the value proposition of the VTOL- rapid deployment; accessible aerial capability; enhanced situational awareness; cost efficiency? Approaching the end-users with a capability focused solution for VTOLs is expected to create more interest with the main end-user stakeholders. However, the cost implications of such a solution cannot be overruled. System-up solutions tend to have longer development cycles, and tend to have higher solution customisation costs. Cost viability of a proposed solution is essential, and this is not limited to initial platform cost. The total cost of ownership taking into consideration the through life operational and sustainment costs are primary elements to consider. Research indicates that although there is not much flight data available on VTOLs when compared to FW UAS and / or manned platforms, the available information indicates a lower through life cost for VTOLs. This is primarily linked to the logistical footprint required to operate and deploy VTOL, such as limited take-off / landing mechanisms / areas, and comparatively reduced number of man hands (mostly due to the limited-endurance mission types). Figure 10: Technical Challenges and Benefits in Successful Deployment of VTOLs HIGH Innovation Opportunity Enabler Through Life Cost Operational Cost Deployability Modularity Hovering Maintenance Cost Configurability Logistical Footprint Operational Complexity Endurance System Customisation Efficiency RangeBENEFITS Technical Matrix Airspace Integration Wear Tear Flight Stability Vibration Aerodynamics - Drift Noise Levels Stealth Mode Disabler Improve LOW HIGH CHALLENGES LOW Source: Frost Sullivan analysis End-users within the security domain have highlighted a need to deliver significant cost benefit, such that the stakeholders can substantiate the decision to select a VTOL UAS solution to meet a specific operational requirement, which traditionally has been delivered using substitute technologies including manned platforms. One of the main considerations for end-users in this regard is to overcome wider public perception of deploying unmanned systems in urban and rural areas in return for evident cost and operational benefits. frost.com 18
  21. 21. Frost Sullivan On assessment of technical challenges and benefits, although non-exhaustive, the primary interviews across industry stakeholders identified parameters that could End-users across further facilitate adoption of VTOL UAS across various end-user environments. defence and security Frost Sullivan analysed and categorised these parameters across four quadrants, emphasised as explained below; ‘CONOPS’ as the leading CSF driving • Enabler: The industry should show-case these as drivers for adopting procurement and VTOL UAS, emphasising the positive impact in fulfilling end-user mission deployment of VTOL requirements. UAS. • Innovation Opportunity: Needs ongoing RD investment to position them as primary enablers for VTOL UAS • Improve: Industry should focus on improving technologies and processes to evolve as technical Enablers. • Disabler: The industry needs to overcome the challenges, or introduce substitutes, and/or minimise negative impact for these parameters. 3.2 Technical challenges and benefits in successful deployment of VTOLs Frost Sullivan research indicates that the industry needs to focus on addressing the immediate concerns of the end-users, whilst show casing the ‘enabler’ for VTOL UAS. End-users indicated industry initiative in resolving CONOPS related issues to start with. Limited modularity is one of them, and is an important factor to consider. Modularity is not limited to payload modularity, this need to consider and include other components of the system such as data links, control elements, support elements etc. Such that the system can be adapted to a specific mission. Modularity for VTOLs is somewhat restrictive, due to on-board space constraints. Features such as ease of deployability, hovering capabilities, mobile platform launch are considered unique value propositions for VTOLs, and make them a preferred choice of inventory for specific missions requiring these capabilities. However, some inherent challenges of the RW platforms migrate onto the VTOL perception, although just like the RW platforms end-users are accepting the fact that immaterial of some limitations, the benefits of VTOLs outweigh the challenges for niche (and critical) applications. 3.3 Critical Success Factors: Potential business models for VTOLs In discussions with main industry and end-user stakeholders, Frost Sullivan identified the most critical success factors (CSF) considered when selecting VTOL UAS for defence and security applications. End-users across defence and security emphasised ‘CONOPS’ as the leading CSF driving procurement and deployment of VTOL UAS. Industry is expected to present a complete understanding of the mission requirements, and prove the technical and operational feasibility of the system on offer. 19 frost.com
  22. 22. Frost SullivanFigure 11: Frost Sullivan Survey on Critical Success Factors impactingthe Selection of VTOL UAS for Defence Security Domains Rating scale- 1 Least Important; 5 Most Important Source: Frost Sullivan analysisTaking into context the operating environments of the two domains, and theexisting capabilities, it is not surprising that defence stakeholders have a higherrating for supplier heritage, which indicates confidence in engaging with establishedOEM solutions over other somewhat exploratory participants, at least for now.However, it is anticipated that security domain is going to be more open to abroader supplier choice independent of OEM heritage.Reliability is considered as a given must-have, although it is interesting to note thatend-users across both domains accept the nascent stage of the VTOL UAS, and areopen to gaining flight heritage in operations. However, some end—users’empahsised the importance of having reliable, proven systems on board theseplatforms, such that technology, although adapted and ruggedised for defence andsecurity environment, has been validated in tangent industries, and / or is supportedwith significant test data.Another factor that has been given a higher rating from defence end-users is systemredundancy. This is mainly driven by the need to operate in extreme environments,across mission critical and highly sensitive applications. However, the costimplications of providing a redundancy based system design are yet to be validated.In light of the ongoing economic crisis it is not surprising that the Total Cost ofOwnership and Through Life Support are considered a CSF across the defence andsecurity domains. Frost Sullivan understands that the various models availableand/or being considered in regards with VTOL UAS are similar to the wider UASsystems. frost.com 20
  23. 23. Frost Sullivan Figure 12: VTOL UAS Market: Identified Business Models, Global, 2012 Frost Sullivan research noted an Local Partner optimistic view Type-2 towards deployment of VTOLs to fulfill VTOL UAS Type-1 mission requirements Manufacturer End-User across both, defence and security domains. Defence Type-3 Security Type-4 3rd Party End-user procurement based on End User Skeptical Total Cost of Ownership about Technology High Equipment Cost Lack of Local Expertise Source: Frost Sullivan analysis Type-1: Direct Deal: The end user procures equipment directly from the manufacturer, both domestic and foreign. Type-2: Local Partner: The foreign supplier enters into an agreement with a domestic partner to tap market opportunities. Type-3: Equipment Rental/Lease: The supplier rents/leases the equipment to the end user directly. Type-4: 3rd Party Equipment Rental/ Lease: The foreign supplier rents/leases the equipment to the end user through a third party. The aforementioned business models can be best placed as potential route to markets, and may vary from market to market. However, these business models alone are not driving procurement in the defence and security domains. As mentioned earlier total cost of ownership and through life support are progressively being adopted as the preferred modes of procurement. The shift towards alternate contracting models is driven by the end-users expectation to share risk with the industry, especially when inducting a new solution. The figure below presents the Risk vs. Revenue analysis across various contracting models. 21 frost.com
  24. 24. Frost SullivanFigure 13: Contracting Models- Service Based Contracts Contracting for Capability Contractor Risk Contracting for Availability Spares Inclusive “Traditional” Contractor Revenue Source: Frost Sullivan analysis3.4 Benefit Analysis of VTOL UASConsidering that VTOL UAS have not yet earned significant flight heritage,conducting any in-depth comparative assessment with the FW UAS and existingmanned systems. Within consideration Frost Sullivan for this white paperattempted to conduct an assessment based on industry perception of current andanticipated levels of technology maturity, operational effectiveness, cost efficiency,system configurations, and potential applications.During our survey with the industry stakeholders many observations were shared,of which some were known, debatable, others somewhat even more debatable thanthe others. These included observations / concerns about higher maintenance cost,integration costs, system complexity- operational and maintenance, endurance andrange, aerodynamics, modularity and configurability, and overall sustainment needs.Despite the concerns noted by the industry stakeholders, Frost Sullivan researchnoted an optimistic view towards deployment of VTOLs to fulfill missionrequirements across both, defence and security domains. This optimism was drivenby the unique value proposition of the VTOL UAS, which includes payload carryingcapacity vis-à-vis endurance, external payload carrying capacity, ability to hover andfly, flexible and responsive accessibility and deployability, low logistical footprint,mobile launch capabilities, perception of overall lower cost of operations due to thenature of missions- shorter mission hours in comparison to similar size FW UAS,and lift and drop capability.Discussions with industry stakeholders, both end-users and suppliers, indicated thatVTOL UAS are widely acknowledged as most suited for niche applications, involvingshort to medium range missions, which require a responsive and easily deployablecapability. The low logistical footprint in comparison to the FW UAS and the otherManned platforms is a significant advantage, both operationally and financially. frost.com 22
  25. 25. Frost Sullivan However, end-users, based on the perception from manned RW anticipate that the VTOL UAS are more complex to operate, a perception that is different from that of the industry. This is mainly because leading industry participants have worked towards minimising the complexities of the traditional Manned RW when designing the UAS versions, both in operating and maintaining the systems. However, Frost Sullivan research indicates that such an assessment of the VTOL UAS with potential substitutes is somewhat limited due to unavailability of extensive flight heritage. Below is a summary of some of the main benefits of VTOL UAS (as noted throughout the white paper): • The industry perceives that VTOL UAS with its ability to conduct stop and go missions, capability to hover and focus on a particular area, and ability to take-off and land in most terrains presents a unique value proposition for end-users. • This ability to conduct critical highly responsive missions independent of the terrain enables VTOLs to be deployed as a significant force multiplier, enabling battle commanders to make informed decisions, and fulfilling expeditionary missions effectively. • The logistical footprint required to operate and deploy VTOL, such as limited take-off/landing mechanisms/areas, and comparatively reduced number of man hands (mostly due to the limited-endurance mission types) indicates a lower through life costs in comparison to other platforms. • End-users are open to exploring and deploying VTOLs in niche environments and applications including MEDEVAC, crowd control, fire monitoring and control, and nuclear monitoring, which are not effectively covered by the existing FW platforms. • VTOLs are considered an apt solution for operating in high risk, segregated airspace, which requires a responsive solution. 4. CONCLUSION 4.1 Summary analysis of supply and demand for VTOLs VTOL UAS are considered at the early stages of the product lifecycle bell curve. However, industry and end-users have indicated confidence in its evolution, especially considering the experience it can leverage from flight proven manned rotary platforms combined with the increasing flight heritage of the FW UAS. The supplier world has diverse participants with experienced OEMs pitching a corner, up against the niche and new participants. Frost Sullivan research indicates a preference for OEMs over the Niche Participants, although the eventual success is expected to be driven by accumulation of successful flight heritage across different markets and end-users. Frost Sullivan analysis indicates potential merger and acquisition activity later in the decade, wherein the OEMs will explore opportunities to expand capabilities in this area through in-organic modes, mainly aimed at technology/product acquisition. 23 frost.com
  26. 26. Frost SullivanThe nearly 300 VTOLs (a conservative outlook) forecast over this decade areexpected to complement the mission inventory of the defence and security end-users, and this complimentary role is not expected to become competitive to Another concern thatexisting systems in the long-term. However, accessibility to VTOL systems in mobile the industry needs toand hard to land/take-off areas would potentially reduce the workload on manned actively win over isand FW UAS platforms, making them free to focus on other mission critical areas. the public perception on deploying UAS in4.2 Market Recommendations the local skies, for task that have beenThe Industry: Product Technology till date somewhat ‘effectively’ deliveredEnd to End Solution, Not just the Platform: The primary recommendation emerging by substitutes.from Frost Sullivan research is for the industry to focus on end to end solutionsrather than pitching hi-tech platforms with limited direct relevance to the conceptof operations within the end-users operating environment.Cost-benefit Analysis of End to End Solution: A related recommendation topackaging end to end solutions to end-users, is the importance of analysing the truecost of delivering a particular service / accomplishing a mission successfully andimplying the value add of deploying VTOL UAS in comparison to alternates /substitutes. The main questions that the industry should aim to answer for the end-users are; • What are the mission requirements that the proposed system will be used for? • How does the end-user currently deliver this mission? • Does the proposed system fulfill the end-user requirements? • What value add does the proposed system bring to the end-users • Gain efficiency • Additional capabilities • Force Multiplier • Cost efficiency?System Configurability: The industry needs to develop flexible, easy to useplatforms that are scalable and modular. However, ability to configure systems fit forpurpose, apt to be adapted to multiple missions within a quick turnaround time isconsidered as a primary feature for end-users.Market End-usersLeading markets: In the coming decade emerging markets such as the Middle Eastand Asia Pacific are expected to provide for the much needed test beds. However,it is the US and the European markets that are expected to drive technologydevelopment and validation for a sustained adoption rate in the long-term.Industry to work towards overcoming the regulatory issues: The evolution of theCivil Security domain for VTOL UAS is optimistically debated. However, theindustry is of the unanimous view that any such spike in demand will onlymaterialise with concrete resolution on the regulatory frameworks at all levels,global, regional and national. frost.com 24
  27. 27. Frost Sullivan The industry is encouraged to continue with its efforts to build a convincing argument in favour of opening the skies for integration of UAS into civilian airspace. This is by any measure not considered an easy task. Although the progress made with ongoing programmes, especially in Europe and the US are considered positive steps in the right direction. Frost Sullivan research indicates an initial adoption of such new standards in the later half this decade, giving way to a more aggressive adoption of UAS (including VTOL UAS). Finally, another concern that the industry needs to actively win over is the public perception on deploying UAS in the local skies, for tasks that have up to now been somewhat ‘effectively’ delivered by substitutes. 4.3 Next Steps: Potential Roadmap of VTOL UAS Frost Sullivan discussions with the industry stakeholders presents a potential roadmap of VTOL UAS. Using the cliché- the potential roadmap for the VTOL UAS rests on the four pillars of evolution across the two universes, the End-user Universe and the Industry Universe. 1. Understanding the mission requirements of the end-users 2. Introducing the solution to end-users by increasing the level of awareness of the solutions value proposition. 3. Whilst the industry continues its efforts towards optimum technology maturity 4. Generate economies of scale driving cost effectiveness for the end- users Figure 15: Road Map for Technology Adoption Critical Factors Dictating the Adoption of VTOL UAS (Defence and Security Domains) Level of Awareness Low Technology Maturity Analysis Analysis Adoption on Low of VTOL Low on UAS End-Users Industry Mission Requirements Low Cost-Effectiveness Where End-Users Stand (Average of Defence and Security) Where Industry Stands Source: Frost Sullivan analysis 25 frost.com
  28. 28. Frost SullivanEnd-user Universe:Research indicates that the end-users although acknowledge the potential fordeploying VTOL UAS, somewhat still lack the awareness of the measured benefitsfor specific mission requirements in comparison to alternate solutions. End-usersare not averse to the technology maturity and cost-effectiveness, as they can relatethese from the experience on Manned RW and FW UAS.Industry Universe:Industry is recommended to develop and propose VTOL UAS with focus on themission requirements, whilst working closely with the end-users to optimise thedeployment of VTOL UAS, in terms of operational, technical and cost effectiveness.5. GLOSSARYAD Aerospace DefenceATM Air Traffic ManagementC-IED Counter- Improvised Explosive DeviceCONOPS Concept of OperationsCOTS Commercial Off The ShelfCSF Critical Success FactorsDGA Directorate General of ArmamentEASA European Aviation Safety AgencyEDA European Defence AgencyEUROCAE European Organisation for Civil Aviation EquipmentEUROCONTROL European Organisation for the Safety of Air NavigationFW Fixed WingHALE High Altitude / Large Endurance (UAV)HAZMAT Hazardous MaterialsHQ Head QuartersMALE Medium Altitude / Large Endurance (UAV)MASPS Minimum Aviation System Performance StandardsMRO Maintenance, Repair and OverhaulNATO North Atlantic Treaty OrganisationsOEM Original Equipment ManufacturerPBL Performance Based LogisticsPEST Political Economic, Social and TechnicalRD Research DevelopmentRF Radio FrequencyRFP Request For ProposalRW Rotary WingSA Sensor AvoidanceSTANAG Standardisation Agreement (NATO)TCO Total Cost of OwnershipTUAV Tactical Unmanned Aerial VehicleUAS Unmanned Aerial SystemsUAV Unmanned Aerial VehicleUS United StatesVHALE Vertical High Altitude / Large Endurance (UAV)VLOS Visual Line of SightVTOL Vertical Take-Off and Landing frost.com 26
  29. 29. London Oxford Silicon Valley 4, Grosvenor Gardens, 4100 Chancellor Court 331 E. Evelyn Ave. Suite 100 London SWIW ODH,UK Oxford Business Park Mountain View, CA 94041 Tel 44(0)20 7730 3438 Oxford, OX4 2GX, UK Tel 650.475.4500 Fax 44(0)20 7730 3343 Tel: +44 (0) 1865 398600 Fax 650.475.1570 Fax: +44 (0) 1865 398601 +44 (0) 20 7730 3438 • enquiries@frost.com http://www.frost.com ABOUT FROST SULLIVAN Frost Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, partners with clients to accelerate their growth. The companys TEAM Research, Growth Consulting, and Growth Team Membership™ empower clients to create a growth-focused culture that generates, evaluates, and implements effective growth strategies. Frost Sullivan employs over 50 years of experience in partnering with Global 1000 companies, emerging businesses, and the investment community from more than 40 offices on six continents. For more information about Frost Sullivan’s Growth Partnership Services, visit http://www.frost.com. For information regarding permission, write to: Frost Sullivan Sullivan House 4 Grosvenor Gardens London SW1W 0DH United Kingdom Auckland Dubai Mumbai Sophia Antipolis Bangkok Frankfurt Manhattan Sydney Beijing Hong Kong Oxford Taipei Bengaluru Istanbul Paris Tel Aviv Bogotá Jakarta Rockville Centre Tokyo Buenos Aires Kolkata San Antonio Toronto Cape Town Kuala Lumpur São Paulo Warsaw Chennai London Seoul Washington, DC Colombo Mexico City Shanghai Delhi / NCR Milan Silicon Valley28 Dhaka Moscow Singapore

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