Trade Deficit Tax Losses Violates Constitutional Law

Violates Constitutional Law Dr. Alec Feinberg Author of the Book The Truth of the Modern Recession And Founder of the website: www.CitizensForEqualTrade.org Email – ModernRecession@Comcast.net Trade Deficit Tax Losses April 26, 2010

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Overview of Discussion
Background of Dr. Alec Feinberg
Brief Introduction
Free Trade - The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly
The Trade Deficit and What It Means
Root Causes of the Trade Deficit
Trade Deficit Tax Losses
Simple Correlation Assessment – National Debt & Free
Trade Deficit
Quantifying How Much Tax Loss is Due to the Trade
Deficit
Is Forced Subsidizing of the U.S. Trade Deficit Through Tax Losses Unethical & Illegal
The Solution of Equal Trade
May 1, 2010 page

May 1, 2010 Page ST Microwave
Dr. Alec Feinberg is
Author of The Truth of the Modern Recession
Founder of the Website
Citizens For Equal Trade
Inventor of Reliability Economics
The book & contact information may be found on either website
www.modernrecession.com
www.CitizensForEqualTrade.org
Book is listed on Amazon with excellent reviews ($19.95)
Not-for-Author-Profit Book
Author Background Information

Book Not for Profit Educational Activities May 1, 2010 Page
Learn the Truth of the Modern Recession, become empowered, and support the Not-For-Profit following activities at the same time:
Sending copies of this book to Congress People (my cost is about $8 per book)
Organizing Citizens for Equal Trade
My cost to run the website is about $10/month
Petition for equal trade
Please sign at CitizensForEqualTrade.org
All Author Profits support these educational activities

Article Information on this topic
A Recent Article on this topic and others is on my book Website:
www.modernrecession.com
Also a link to this slide presentation on both sites
Free Trade ‘Deficit’ Violates
Constitutional Law and the U.S. Free
Trade Agreement (Find it at the bottom of this site with sample chapters)
May 1, 2010 Page

Economy – U.S. Issues are All Inter-Related May 1, 2010 page / Top Economy Issues Approximately Last 10 Years National Debt Doubled ($12.5 Trillion) Manufacturing Jobs losses - Up 33% Free Trade Deficit – (2000 China enter US free trade)
Tripled ($7.5 Trillion since 1971)
$5.1 Trillion since China’s Entry
Separation of Wealth Increases 1% per Year (Increase 28%, 1980-2007) Unemployment Doubled Business Failure Rate Increased Housing Failure Rate Increased

May 1, 2010 Page FREE TRADE The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly

Free Trade Philosophy
Comparative Advantage
In a Free marketplace, each country will specialize in its comparative advantage (i.e. natural resources, skilled work, agriculture-friendly weather, etc.). Result should be all parties will increase their income.
Theory refers only to aggregate wealth and says nothing about the distribution of wealth
End up with big winners and losers
Does not speak to Trade deficits
Large separation of wealth
May 1, 2010 Page

Free Trade: The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly
The Good:
1) Low-priced goods, 2) reduced inflation, 3) low-priced services, 4) new job opportunities in foreign-owned businesses, 5) new global opportunities in manufacturing, 6) imports/exports of agricultural and commodity, 7) export opportunities, 8) reduced likelihood of war with our trading partners due to foreign investors, and 9) manufacturing outsourcing raises the level of 3 rd world countries.
The Bad
U.S. unemployment crisis due to job outsourcing primarily in the manufacturing area, lack of protectionism, U.S. corporation failures have occurred due to foreign competition that has had many advantages over U.S. businesses. Some foreign governments are accused of subsidizing products - cheaper labor. Example - Detroit automakers had failures and needed bail outs.
May 1, 2010 Page

Free Trade: The Ugly & The Really Ugly
The Ugly: Global Cheating Crisis:
Currency Manipulation
Product subsidy to gain competitive advantage
Product counterfeiting
Unfair non tariff trade barriers by our trading partners
Lack of intellectual property rights protection
The Really Ugly: Losing America
3.6 Million Jobs lost to China, Mexico and Canada
Job Losses = Tax Revenue Losses -> Increase in U.S. national debt
Foreigners own U.S. businesses & U.S. Treasuries
We are beholden to Foreign governments making regulations impossible
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May 1, 2010 Page

Example - Accusation China Currency Manipulation
January 2009—Treasury Secretary designate Timothy Geithner said —backed by the conclusions of a broad range of economists was that China is manipulating its currency
The Schumer-Graham bill had proposed a 27.5% tariff on all imports from China until the Yuan reached a fair value. Stopped by lobbyist influences Sept. 2006.
May 1, 2010 Page

Example: Accusation on Japan
In 2008 the U.S. had a $55.8 billion trade deficit in auto and auto parts with Japan that represented about 8% of our total trade deficit. U.S. exports of autos and auto parts to Japan were almost 27% lower in 2008 than in 2000
Japan’s artificially weak currency provides a significant per-vehicle cost advantage that amounts to an outright annual subsidy of between $3,000 for small car to $12,000 for a luxury sedan or SUV for every vehicle exported to the United States.
Japan also continues to block imports of U.S. auto parts using a combination of non-tariff barriers
May 1, 2010 Page

THE TRADE DEFICIT AND WHAT
IT MEANS
May 1, 2010 Page

What Does a Trade Deficit Mean? & How Large is it??
When a U.S. deficit occurs it means imports are greater than exports
U.S. Total Trade Deficit started 1971, has accumulated to $7.5 trillion ($6.5 trillion last 20 years). Below we compare it to the National Debt (cumulative total).
May 1, 2010 Page

Free Trade & Trade Deficit
To be in favor of Free Trade means you must be Supportive of the:
U.S. Free Trade Deficit
Why do most economists support free trade yet do not support the free trade deficit?
May 1, 2010 Page

Trade Deficit Implications
Trade Deficit -> Foreigners own U.S. deficit dollars
Money comes back in foreign investments
Foreigners with excess U.S. dollars buy U.S. debt (treasuries) and businesses
Effectively U.S. net worth is being transferred abroad
We are more and more beholden to foreigners
This effects foreign political policies and our position
May 1, 2010 Page

How Much in 2009 Do Foreigners Own of U.S.?
Current Estimate is $9.7 trillion (3 trillion in treasuries, 6.7 trillion in businesses)
Total trade deficit is 7.5 Trillion since 1971.
Foreigner ownership is ~77% due to trade deficit
National Debt – about $3 Trillion of $12.1 Trillion about 25%
U.S. Businesses Aug, 2008 - share of foreign-owned U.S. companies as a percentage of the whole has also jumped to 13.9 % (about $6.7 trillion)
Business net worth in U.S. is about $50 trillion, household net worth is $54 trillion
May 1, 2010 Page

Warren Buffet on Free Trade Deficit
“ The U.S trade deficit is a bigger threat to the domestic economy than either the federal budget deficit or consumer debt and could lead to political turmoil... Right now, the rest of the world owns $3 trillion more of us than we own of them” (Ref. Wikipedia)
May 1, 2010 Page

Investigating 40 Years of Free Trade Deficits Effects
Trade Def Equals $7.5 Trillion since 1971 ( $5.5 trillion dollars in just the last 10 years)
No country can long sustain a trade deficit, Economics 101
May 1, 2010 page /

US Trade Deficit May 1, 2010 Page 2008 Year U.S. Service Trade Surplus U.S. Goods Deficit Billions $ U.S. Overall Deficit Billions $ 2000 79.6 -459.20 -379.60 2001 69.7 -436.70 -367.00 2002 67.4 -491.70 -424.30 2003 60.2 -559.50 -499.30 2004 65.8 -681.20 -615.40 2005 83.3 -796.90 -713.60 2006 93.3 -850.60 -757.30 2007 128.1 -836.00 -707.90 2008 162.9 -832.10 -669.20 Total 810 -5944 -5134 Country/ Area Deficit in Percent China 39% NAFTA 21% OPEC Nations 22% Others 18% TOTAL 100%

Trade Deficit In Billions of Dollars May 1, 2010 Page China, Japan, NAFTA, Others www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/ In Billions of Dollars NAFTA Year China Japan Mexico Canada Others Total 2009 $226.8 $45 $48 $20.2 $38.6 $378.6 2008 268 74 65 78.3 210.6 695.9 2007 258 84 75 68 216.4 701.4 2006 234 90 65 72 299.4 760.4 2005 202 83 50 78 302.3 715.3 2004 162 74 45 67 261.9 609.9 2003 124 66 40 52 213 495 2002 103 70 37 48 163 421 2001 83 69 30 53 130.5 365.5 2000 84 82 24 52 137.8 379.8

Trade Deficit In Percent May 1, 2010 Page China, Japan, NAFTA, Others www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/ Year China Japan Mexico Canada Others 2009 59.9% 11.9% 12.7% 5.3% 10.2% 2008 38.5% 10.6% 9.3% 11.3% 30.3% 2007 36.8% 12.0% 10.7% 9.7% 30.9% 2006 30.8% 11.8% 8.5% 9.5% 39.4% 2005 28.2% 11.6% 7.0% 10.9% 42.3% 2004 26.6% 12.1% 7.4% 11.0% 42.9% 2003 25.1% 13.3% 8.1% 10.5% 43.0% 2002 24.5% 16.6% 8.8% 11.4% 38.7% 2001 22.7% 18.9% 8.2% 14.5% 35.7% 2000 22.1% 21.6% 6.3% 13.7% 36.3%

China’s Trade Surplus Leads to GDP Growth May 1, 2010 Page Year China Population (Billions) China Pop Growth Since 2000 GDP per Capita China in U.S. dollars China GDP Growth in % Billions GDP China 2000 1.26183 0.00% $3,800 7% 4800 2001 1.27311 0.90% $3600 8% 4500 2002 1.28430 1.78% $4600 8% 6000 2003 1.28698 2.00% $4400 8% 5700 2004 1.29885 2.94% $5000 9.1% 6449 2005 1.30631 3.53% $5600 9.1% 7262 2006 1.31397 4.13% $6800 10.2% 8883 2007 1.32185 4.76% $7700 10.7% 10170 2008 1.33004 5.41% $5300 11.4% 7800

U.S. Trade Deficit Leads to GDP Contraction May 1, 2010 Page Year U.S. Pop (Billions) U.S. Pop Growth Since 2000 U.S. GDP Per Capita in dollars U.S. GDP in Billions U.S. GDP Growth in % 2000 0.2756 0.0% $33900 9255 4.1% 2001 0.2781 0.9% $36200 9963 5% 2002 0.2806 1.8% $36300 10082 0.3% 2003 0.2903 5.4% $37600 10400 2.45% 2004 0.2930 6.3% $37800 10990 3.1% 2005 0.2957 7.3% $40100 11750 4.4% 2006 0.2984 8.3% $41600 12310 3.2% 2007 0.3011 9.3% $44000 13130 3.2% 2008 0.3038 10.3% $46,000 13860 2.2%

China and NAFTA U.S. Job Losses
Cheaper Labor Causes Job Losses in U.S.
Between NAFTA and China spanning 1993 and 2008 the total job outsourcing loss is at least 3.63 million
www.epi.org/economic_snapshots/entry/webfeatures_snapshots_archive_11052003/
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100323-713114.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines
May 1, 2010 Page

U.S. Foreign Owned Business Equates to Job Losses?
Aug, 2008 - share of foreign-owned U.S. companies as a percentage of the whole has also jumped to 13.9 percent. Back in 1971, foreign companies owned 1.3 percent of all corporate U.S. assets.
Foreign-owned companies in the United States have a work force of more than 5.3 million, or some 3.5 percent of all workers
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/18/business/18excerpt.html
U.S. trade deficit causes job losses
Foreigner own 13.9% of U.S. companies yet only employ 3.5% of work force!
Extrapolating this, if foreigner owned 100% of all U.S. companies they would employ 25% U.S. workers.
May 1, 2010 Page http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2744743020080827

ROOT CAUSES OF TRADE DEFICIT
May 1, 2010 Page

Root Causes of Free Trade Deficit Labor Costs May 1, 2010 Page
Main Root Cause:
Cheaper labor
Lack of government oversight
High- versus low-wage economies

Law of Financial Free Trade Equilibrium Between U.S. high & low wage economies
If two economies have free cash flow, such as China and the U.S., the currencies will flow towards financial equilibrium (from richer country to poorer). The imbalanced monetary pressure causing excess trade deficit is due mainly to three key reasons: cost of wages, each country’s GDP, and the value of the country’s currency.
Free trade can never be equal trade until all U.S. dollars reach equilibrium with the rest of the world – this would make the U.S. a 3 rd world country but owned and operated eventually by outside investors.
May 1, 2010 Page

Root Causes of Free Trade Deficit Secondary Root Causes
Economic Greed (Cheating the U.S. and its tax payers)
Violations of WTO free trade policy
Foreign Currency Manipulation
Product subsidy to gain competitive advantage
Product counterfeiting
Unfair non tariff trade barriers by our trading partners
Lack of intellectual property rights protection
Foreign currency manipulation: A country keeps its currency artificially low so its goods and services are cheaper increasing exports.
May 1, 2010 Page

May 1, 2010 page / TRADE DEFICIT TAX (TDT) LOSSES!!

Trade Deficit Tax (TDT) Consequences
Not well understood, quantified, and ignored by economists is federal Trade Deficit Tax (TDT) losses for various reasons:
Lost tax wages on non US Products: Products made by non U.S. citizens do not pay federal tax compared to products that would have created tax revenues if made in the U.S.
U.S. products replaced with foreign imports, less taxed wages collected: As U.S. made goods are replaced with foreign imports, so too are U.S. jobs and lost taxed wages.
Outsourcing Job Losses: Unemployment benefits and health care government payouts associated with these job losses.
May 1, 2010 Page

Foreign Owned Companies Pay Far Less Tax
Foreign corporations with operations in the U.S. tend to pay less in taxes than their domestic counterparts and are more likely to pay no income taxes at all, according to a federal report released this week.
The U.S. Government Accountability Office report said 72% of foreign companies in the U.S. reported no federal tax liability for at least one year between 1998 and 2005 versus 55 percent of U.S.-based corporations.
The GAO report also found foreign companies had lower tax liabilities than U.S. firms - 1.4 percent versus 1.7 percent of sales receipts and assets. http://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/stories/2008/08/11/daily37.html
www.ctj.org/hid_ent/part-2/part2-3.htm, “Tax breaks for multinational corporations)
May 1, 2010 Page

Trade Deficit Tax (TDT) Consequences (Continued)
Reasons for TDT Losses:
Foreign owned U.S. companies export services
Employ many of their own
Foreigner own 13.9% of U.S. companies yet only employ 3.5% of work force! (See prior slide)
May 1, 2010 page /

SIMPLE CORRELATION ASSESSMENT
NATIONAL DEBT & FREE TRADE DEFICIT
May 1, 2010 Page

Trade Deficit National Debt 1990 - 2009 May 1, 2010 Page Year Annual Trade Deficit in Trillions $ Cumulative Trade Deficit in Trillions $ National Debt in Trillions $ Cumulative National Debt in Trillions $ 1990 0.081 1.01 + 0.33 3.21 1991 0.031 1.04 0.39 3.6 1992 0.039 1.08 0.4 4 1993 0.070 1.15 0.35 4.35 1994 0.098 1.25 0.29 4.64 1995 0.096 1.35 0.28 4.92 1996 0.104 M1 1.45 0.26 5.18 1997 0.108 M1 1.56 0.19 5.37 1998 0.166 M1 1.73 0.11 5.48 1999 0.265 M1 1.99 0.12 5.6 2000 0.380 2.37 0.03** 5.63 2001 0.366 M1 2.74 0.14 5.77 2002 0.422 M1 3.16 0.43 6.2 2003 0.495 M1 3.65 0.56 6.76 2004 0.610 M1 4.26 0.59 7.35 2005 0.715 M1 4.98 0.56 7.91 2006 0.760 M1 5.74 0.54 8.45 2007 0.701 M1 6.44 0.5 8.95 2008 0.696 7.14 1.04 9.99 2009 0.37 Est. 7.51 Est* 2.1 Est. 12.1 Est.

National Debt and Free Trade Deficit Per Year May 1, 2010 Page Graph shows interesting correlation – (See section on trade deficit)

Correlation Analysis From Data: Model for well behaved years - 1996 and 2007 May 1, 2010 Page

Regression Results
Correlations Found in Data: 84% to 89% (square root of R-Sq)
X-Y relationship. Y=0.679X -.0726).
Y intercept (.0726) small indicated no deficit no tax losses . (small compared to values in Column 2 from 1996-2007)
Y(National Debt) ~ 0.68 X(Trade Def.)
implies 68% of some trade deficit X-quantity is linked to lost tax revenue and effectively adds to the national debt
May 1, 2010 page /

Quantifying How Much Tax Loss is
Due to the Trade Deficit
May 1, 2010 Page

Math Model Assumption
Assumption: Mathematical relationship is valid for any time period. That is, we have been able to identify an underlying relationship using select years; the relationship should still be reasonably valid for other time periods.
May 1, 2010 Page

First Estimate from Graph Results
Foreigners reinvest trade deficit dollars in businesses and treasuries. Foreign investment would not be there if it was not for the trade deficit Use treasuries of $3 trillion as an example for the X-quantity in Graph
Multiply by 0.68 giving $2 trillion of effective trade deficit that is added to the national debt (=68 cents of every trade def dollar)
95% Confidence bounds in Figure between $0.8 and $2.8 trillion
(the $0.8 trillion = 11¢ of every trade def. dollar adds to national debt).
The $0.8 trillion of $12.3 trillion national debt implies about 6.6% of the national debt is due to the trade deficit
May 1, 2010 Page

Estimate of How Much of Every Trade Def. $ is added to the National Debt
Using the $0.8 Trillion amount as an example (95% Lower bound) then
This is also between 10.7 and 26.7 cents of every trade deficit dollar adds to the national debt . With the U.S. population of about 300 million, this equates to between $2667 to $6667 added to each citizen’s national debt credit card! We see that free trade is not really free!
May 1, 2010 Page

Hand Waving – 2 nd Estimate for Sanity Check
Rough 2 nd Estimate we obtained as follows:
NAFTA and China spanning 1993 and 2008 the total job outsourcing loss is at least 3.63 million (see earlier slides)
Harvard economist Martin Feldstein in 1971 estimated a tax loss of $10.61 per hour on even a $15 per hour job. http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/Unemployment.html
Using this underestimated value and providing and overestimate of displaced workers for 1 year of salary, the outsourcing cost to tax payers (2000 hr. work year) is ~ $77 billion.
Using a recent EPI estimate of about $700 week including Cobra subsidies, the taxpayer cost is $131 billion. http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/jobs_crisis_fact_sheet/
May 1, 2010 Page

Cascade Factor
GDP consumer spending loss from this outsourcing creating less product demand and effecting other layoffs is hard to factor. The EPI estimate is 8.4 million recent jobs lost. The cascade effect may be a factor of 10 with housing and bail-out issues. This is ~$1 trillion in tax losses from the trade deficit effect.
Therefore our final estimate is $1 trillion is most likely reasonable
Current national debt is 12.5 trillion
Free trade deficit is estimated here as about 8% of the national debt
Reader Caution: This is a crude estimate. It is most likely the best estimate one will find since economist have ignored the TDT quantity.
May 1, 2010 Page

IS FORCED SUBSIDIZING OF
THE U.S. FREE TRADE DEFICIT
THROUGH TAX LOSSES
UNETHICAL & ILLEGAL?
May 1, 2010 Page

Question
If US citizens suffer free trade deficit tax losses, and are forced to pay off this as part of a national debt increase, then
Is the free trade policy/deficit illegal??
Is it unethical??
May 1, 2010 Page

Is it Unethical if U.S. Citizens are subsidizing the Deficit?
Ethical greed issues (see prior slides): Currency manipulation by U.S. trading partners, 2) Excessive Job outsourcing, 3) Product subsidies by foreign governments, 4) Unfair non tariff trade barriers by our trading partners, 5) Lack of intellectual property rights protection, and 6) Product counterfeiting.
In effect, U.S. citizens are forced to enable job outsourcing, currency manipulation, and these on-going greed issues through forced tax subsidies
Is this Unethical – What say you??
.
May 1, 2010 Page

Is it Illegal in Violation of Constitutional laws?
Does it violate constitutional law? We have identified one possible constitutional law that speaks to tax on interstate commerce. This constitutional law states (Article 1, Section 9, Clause 5): “No Tax or Duty shall be laid on articles exported from any State.” The argument is then, U.S. tax payers are actually paying a forced tax on moving imported trade deficit goods from state to state through tax losses due to the trade deficit (that we discussed in this chapter). In other words, U.S. citizens are paying an interstate tax since the import trade deficit goods have tax consequences that increase our National debt. Therefore, it is a violation of constitutional law that tax payers are subsidizing the free trade deficit on imported deficit goods that are moved from state to state across America. From our graph in Figure 9.3, tax losses diminish to zero if trade deficit approaches zero. Therefore, only equal trade will not violate this law. www.house.gov/house/Constitution/Constitution.html
May 1, 2010 Page

Is it Illegal for U.S. Citizens to pay tax on the Deficit Consequences?
Does it violate free trade agreement? The agreement between our trading partners requires elimination of tariffs and quotas on most (if not all) goods and services traded between them. Our argument is similar to that above, U.S. tax payers are actually paying a tax on imported trade deficit goods through tax losses due to the trade deficit (that we discussed in this chapter). Since the trade deficit is partially funded by U.S. tax payers, then this is a self-imposed tax on trade surplus of imports and is a tariff that U.S. citizens are paying our own government on deficit imports. Therefore, a trade deficit violates free trade policy itself!
May 1, 2010 Page

Is it Stealing ?
Is it stealing for U.S. citizens to be paying for corporate Americas products through TDT losses??
What Say You?
Example:
You are paying a tax on every free trade ‘deficit’ item sold at Walmart!
May 1, 2010 Page

THE SOLUTION OF EQUAL TRADE
May 1, 2010 Page

Equal Trade Has No TDT Losses
Results of our graphical analysis indicate that if the trade deficit were near zero, the contribution to the national debt would be near zero.
This implies that Equal Trade would create TDT losses, or thus not violate constitutional law.
May 1, 2010 Page

Balanced Trade Restoration Act of 2006 Corrective Action
Warren Buffett’s plan: Create a market for import certificates that would represent the right to import a certain dollar amount of goods into the United States from other countries. These certificates would be issued to US exporters in an amount equal to the dollar amount of the goods they export, and can be sold to importers, who must purchase them in order to legally import goods.
Results: This Plan does essentially create a tariff
Alternate Plans are needed
U.S. Government has failed to act on proposed legislation
Balanced Trade Restoration Act of 2006 (Bill has vanished??)
May 1, 2010 Page

Congress Neglect of 2006 Bill and the free trade deficit
2006 Bill faded
Nothing was ever issued on the Bill
Failure by Congress to provide information or act on one of the biggest threats to the U.S. economy is an indication of
Poor Economic decisions possibly ideologically based
Influence of big business
Shows a lack of understanding of issues since free trade is supported by most economists
May 1, 2010 Page

What Would Equal Trade do for U.S.
Create Millions of Jobs
Help us pay off the National Debt
Reduce unemployment to minimum levels
Reduce separation of wealth
Stop housing failure Rate
Stop business failure rate
Stop foreigners from buying up America
Stop foreigners from buying up our National debt
Stop U.S. from being Beholden to unfriendly countries like China
Assure America’s Future
Stop illegal taxation
May 1, 2010 Page

May 1, 2010 Page

What You Can Do
Go to the Website:
Sign the petition for equal trade on the website
Support this movement and learn : The Truth of the Modern Recession, with your purchase
Book at Amazon.com $19.95
May 1, 2010 Page

Addressed Solutions in the Not-for-Profit The Truth of the Modern Recession, Root Causes and Reliable Solutions
Reliability Economics - A Bipartisan Solution through Root Cause Analysis:
Using Reliability Economics - Solutions Addressed in book:
Taxation Plan to Reduce Separation of Wealth
A Seven Year Plan to Eliminate the National Debt
Job Creation and Retention Investing
Free Trade Deficit Mitigation Plan
Middle East Long Term Solution
Check and Balance for Lobbyist Problems
Many Solutions Without Bailout
May 1, 2010 Page Please see book reviews and information at Amazon.com

Trade Deficit Tax Losses Violates Constitutional Law

by Alec Feinberg on Apr 26, 2010

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Trade Deficit Tax Losses Violates Constitutional Law — Presentation Transcript