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Adventures in production planning and scheduling
 

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    Adventures in production planning and scheduling Adventures in production planning and scheduling Presentation Transcript

    • Adventures inProduction Planning and Scheduling: Notes on Lean Manufacturing. For the WAIB 34th Annual Meeting. Scottsdale, Arizona – September, 2006 by Dave Williams – williams@rand.org
    • Lean ManufacturingLean Manufacturing is another name for theToyota Production System.© 2006 Dave Williams 2 / 50
    • Lean ManufacturingLean Manufacturing is another name for theToyota Production System.It was fashioned from the ideas of 2 men: Sakichi Toyoda Henry Ford© 2006 Dave Williams 3 / 50
    • Lean ManufacturingLean Manufacturing is another name for theToyota Production System.The Toyota Production System is a logicalapproach to two things:© 2006 Dave Williams 4 / 50
    • Lean ManufacturingLean Manufacturing is another name for theToyota Production System.The Toyota Production System is a logicalapproach to two things: Quality, and Time© 2006 Dave Williams 5 / 50
    • Lean Manufacturing: TPS Jidoka© 2006 Dave Williams 6 / 50
    • Lean Manufacturing: TPS Jidoka Heijunka© 2006 Dave Williams 7 / 50
    • Lean Manufacturing: TPS Jidoka.Andon Heijunka© 2006 Dave Williams 8 / 50
    • Lean Manufacturing: TPS Jidoka.Andon Heijunka.JIT© 2006 Dave Williams 9 / 50
    • Lean Manufacturing: the Goal Zero-Defects Zero-Inventory© 2006 Dave Williams 10 / 50
    • Lean Manufacturing: full synthesis Jidoka.Andon Heijunka.JIT SMED© 2006 Dave Williams 11 / 50
    • Lean ManufacturingFirst steps into Lean Manufacturing: 1. Mutual Trust between workers and management 2. Multi-skilled workforce 3. Good relationships with suppliers 4. Extremely high quality product 5. Fast set up times < 10 min (a.k.a. SMED - Single Minute Exchange of Dies) 6. Highly reliable equipment 7. A Stable master production schedule© 2006 Dave Williams 12 / 50
    • Lean ManufacturingOptional Tools:© 2006 Dave Williams 13 / 50
    • Lean ManufacturingOptional Tools: – 5S (A common sense approach to ergonomics)Image source: 5S for Operators: 5 Pillars of the Visual Workplace, Productivity Press, 1995 © 2006 Dave Williams 14 / 50
    • Lean ManufacturingOptional Tools: – 5S – Kanban (A system of currency for inventory transactions)Image source: unknown © 2006 Dave Williams 15 / 50
    • Lean ManufacturingOptional Tools: – 5S – Kanban – Kaizen Events (1 to 2 weeks of team-driven improvements)© 2006 Dave Williams 16 / 50
    • Clockwise from Henry Ford: 1. Sakichi Toyoda 2. Kiichiro Toyoda 3. Eiji Toyoda 4. Taichii Ohno 5. Shigeo Shingo© 2006 Dave Williams 17 / 50
    • Lean Manufacturing: observationsImplementing the Toyota Production System ispsychologically improbable assuming Kahneman andTversky’s Prospect Theory.When taken together, the resulting system is a so called‘Hot’ system – Highly Optimized within Tolerances.Distributed robustness comes from Keiretsu.© 2006 Dave Williams 18 / 50
    • Is Lean the best choice?© 2006 Dave Williams 19 / 50
    • Many Alternatives APS (Advanced Planning Systems) CONWIP (Constant Work in Progress) CRM (Customer Relationship Management) DRP (Distribution Resource Planning) MRP I (Material Requirements Planning) MRP II (Manufacturing Resource Planning) ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) JIT (Just in Time) Lean (What is this anyways?) Six Sigma (Statistics for Managers!) Lean Six Sigma (What statistics? What Managers? What?) OPT (Optimized Production Technology) SPC (Statistical Process Control) TOC (Theory of Constraints) TPS (Toyota Production System) TPM (Total Productive Maintenance) TQM (Total Quality Management)© 2006 Dave Williams 20 / 50
    • Is there a more general connectionbetween all of these models?Perhaps related to these factors:• Volume and Variety• Technology Factors• Economies of scale, scope, network effects and learning• The Man – Machine interface© 2006 Dave Williams 21 / 50
    • The Product-Process MatrixUnit VolumePer SKU Low Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 High Zone 4 High Low Number of Different SKUs© 2006 Dave Williams 22 / 50
    • The Product-Process MatrixProcess© 2006 Dave Williams Product Mix 23 / 50
    • The Product-Process MatrixProcess Inventor’s Studio Zone 1 Job Shop One of Custom made a Kind few of each© 2006 Dave Williams Product Mix 24 / 50
    • The Product-Process MatrixProcess Inventor’s Studio Zone 1 Job Shop Batch Flow Zone 2 Line Flow People Paced One of Custom made Many low volume a Kind few of each products© 2006 Dave Williams Product Mix 25 / 50
    • The Product-Process MatrixProcess Inventor’s Studio Zone 1 Job Shop Batch Flow Zone 2 Line Flow People Paced Zone 3 Line Flow Machine Paced One of Custom made Many low volume Several high a Kind few of each products volume products© 2006 Dave Williams Product Mix 26 / 50
    • The Product-Process MatrixProcess Inventor’s Studio Zone 1 Job Shop Batch Flow Zone 2 Line Flow People Paced Zone 3 Line Flow Machine Paced Pure Automation Zone 4 Technology Paced One of Custom made Many low volume Several high Global a Kind few of each products volume products Commodity© 2006 Dave Williams Product Mix 27 / 50
    • The Product-Process MatrixProcess Inventor’s Studio Zone 1 Job Shop Batch Flow Zone 2 Line Flow People Paced Zone 3 Line Flow Machine Paced Pure Automation Zone 4 Technology Paced One of Custom made Many low volume Several high Global a Kind few of each products volume products Commodity© 2006 Dave Williams Product Mix 28 / 50
    • The Product-Process MatrixProcess Design Houses Inventor’s Studio Aerospace Job Shop Commercial Printers Industrial Machinery Batch Flow Apparel Electronics Manufacturing Pharmaceuticals, Line Flow People Paced Specialty Chemicals Automotive Line Flow Steel Products Machine Paced Rubber Products Major Chemicals Pure Automation Paper, Oil, Steel, Technology Paced Beer, Soda One of Custom made Many low volume Several high Global a Kind few of each products volume products Commodity© 2006 Dave Williams Product Mix 29 / 50
    • The Product-Process MatrixProcess Design Houses Inventor’s Studio Aerospace Job Shop Commercial Printers Industrial Machinery Batch Flow Apparel Electronics Manufacturing Pharmaceuticals, Line Flow People Paced Specialty Chemicals Automotive Line Flow Steel Products Machine Paced Rubber Products Major Chemicals Pure Automation Paper, Oil, Steel, Technology Paced Beer, Soda One of Custom made Many low volume Several high Global a Kind few of each products volume products Commodity© 2006 Dave Williams Product Mix 30 / 50
    • The Product-Process MatrixProcess Inventor’s Studio Zone 1 Job Shop Batch Flow Zone 2 Line Flow People Paced Zone 3 Line Flow Machine Paced Pure Automation Zone 4 Technology Paced One of Custom made Many low volume Several high Global a Kind few of each products volume products Commodity© 2006 Dave Williams Product Mix 31 / 50
    • The Product-Process MatrixProcess Inventor’s Studio Sequencing Rules Job Shop Batch Flow Zone 2 Line Flow People Paced Zone 3 Line Flow Machine Paced Pure Automation Zone 4 Technology Paced One of Custom made Many low volume Several high Global a Kind few of each products volume products Commodity© 2006 Dave Williams Product Mix 32 / 50
    • The Product-Process MatrixProcess Inventor’s Studio Sequencing Rules Job Shop Batch Flow Theory of Constraints Line Flow People Paced Zone 3 Line Flow Machine Paced Pure Automation Zone 4 Technology Paced One of Custom made Many low volume Several high Global a Kind few of each products volume products Commodity© 2006 Dave Williams Product Mix 33 / 50
    • The Product-Process MatrixProcess Inventor’s Studio Sequencing Rules Job Shop Batch Flow Theory of Constraints Line Flow People Paced Zone 3 Line Flow Machine Paced Pure Automation Periodic Review Technology Paced One of Custom made Many low volume Several high Global a Kind few of each products volume products Commodity© 2006 Dave Williams Product Mix 34 / 50
    • The Product-Process MatrixProcess Inventor’s Studio Sequencing Rules Job Shop Batch Flow Theory of Constraints Line Flow People Paced Zone 3 ? Line Flow Machine Paced Pure Automation Periodic Review Technology Paced One of Custom made Many low volume Several high Global a Kind few of each products volume products Commodity© 2006 Dave Williams Product Mix 35 / 50
    • The Product-Process MatrixProcess Inventor’s Studio Sequencing Rules Job Shop Batch Flow Theory of Constraints Line Flow People Paced MRP and JIT Line Flow Machine Paced Pure Automation Periodic Review Technology Paced One of Custom made Many low volume Several high Global a Kind few of each products volume products Commodity© 2006 Dave Williams Product Mix 36 / 50
    • The Product-Process Matrix Line Flow People Paced MRP and JIT Line Flow Machine Paced Pure Automation Technology Paced Many low volume Several high Global products volume products Commodity© 2006 Dave Williams 37 / 50
    • The Product-Process Matrix Line Flow People Paced MRP and JIT Line Flow Machine Paced Pure Automation Technology Paced Many low volume Several high Global products volume products Commodity© 2006 Dave Williams 38 / 50
    • JIT vs. MRP: hot vs. cold systemsThe opposite of ‘Lean’ is not ‘Wasteful’© 2006 Dave Williams 39 / 50
    • JIT vs. MRP: hot vs. cold systemsThe opposite of ‘Lean’ is not ‘Wasteful’The alternative to ‘Lean’ is simply a schedule,otherwise known as a material requirementsplan, based on forecasts.© 2006 Dave Williams 40 / 50
    • JIT vs. MRP: hot vs. cold systemsThe distinction, in the abstract, is a matter ofsystems design. JIT: Hot MRP: Coldsee Farmer et al., 2002 © 2006 Dave Williams 41 / 50
    • JIT vs. MRP: hot vs. cold systemsThe distinction, in the abstract, is a matter ofsystems design. JIT: Highly Optimized within Tolerances MRP: Constrained Optimization with Limited Deviationssee Farmer et al., 2002 © 2006 Dave Williams 42 / 50
    • The Japanese Report not to Forecast“Operations managers from nearly 1500 majorcorporations were asked to rank their concerns onvarious aspects of manufacturing management.*European and North American executives ranked salesforecasting at number 5 and number 4, respectively.Interestingly enough, sales forecasting did not evenappear in the list among Japanese managers.”From:Henry C Co, Moosa Sharafali, Overplanning factor in Toyotas formula for computing the number of kanbanIIE Transactions. Norcross: May 1997.Vol.29, Iss. 5; pg. 409, 7 pgs*With reference to:Ferdows, K., Miller, J.G., Nakane, J. and Vollman, T.E., (1985) Evolving global manufacturing strategies: projections into the 1990s.International Journal of Operations Production Management, 6(4), 5-14. © 2006 Dave Williams 43 / 50
    • It’s good to have friendsToyota Motor Shows Its MettleAfter Fire Destroys Parts PlantWall Street Journal 8 May 1997“Fire incinerated main source of brake valve”“No Foreign Help Required”“320 cellular phones, 230 extra phone lines and several dozensleeping bags for executives”“36 suppliers, aided by more than 150 other subcontractors”“tribal groups…Japanese auto makers blood pacts with their suppliers” © 2006 Dave Williams 44 / 50
    • Lean ManufacturingFurther reference: – Liker, Jeffrey R., The Toyota Way, 2004 – Silver, Edward A., Pyke, David, F., Peterson, Rein, Inventory Management and Production Planning and Scheduling, 1998.© 2006 Dave Williams 45 / 50
    • A Word from George Box: 1.Every model is an approximation. 2.All models are wrong, some models are useful. 3.Don’t fall in love with a model… In Statistics for Experimenters , 2005. (George Box invented the ARIMA model of forecasting)© 2006 Dave Williams 46 / 50