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Devnest #7 Mobile Industry Review

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This is the mobile overview presentation I delivered to Devnest #7 in London on Wednesday 10th March.

This is the mobile overview presentation I delivered to Devnest #7 in London on Wednesday 10th March.

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  • 1. DEVNEST #7 Ewan Macleod Mobile Industry Review
  • 2. Standby
    • About Me
    • Mobile Platforms
    • Feature & Smartphones
    • iPhone, Symbian, BlackBerry, Android
    • Developer Case Study
    • The $400 iPhone app
  • 3. ABOUT ME
  • 4.  
  • 5.  
  • 6.  
  • 7. Tweeting before any of you Sort of…
  • 8.  
  • 9.  
  • 10.  
  • 11.  
  • 12. The Mobile industry Let’s have some statistics…
  • 13. 4.6 BILLION
    • Mobile subscribers on Earth (Tomi Ahonen)
      • 1.6 billion TVs, 850m subscribers
      • 1.7 billion credit cards
  • 14. 1.2 BILLION
    • Handsets sold in 2009 (Gartner)
    • - 300m TVs
    • - 280m new PCs
  • 15.  
  • 16. Feature vs Smart Gap is narrowing quickly
  • 17. Feature Phone £18
  • 18. Smart Phone £500 Nokia N900
  • 19. From £12.45
  • 20. Phone sales breakdown…
  • 21. Handset sales in 2009
  • 22. Handset sales in 2009 Gartner, Feb 2010
  • 23. Handset sales in 2009 Gartner, Feb 2010 Nokia shipped 1.4m phones today
  • 24. In the UK…
    • 19 million handsets sold last year
    • 85% of adults own a mobile phone
    • Saturated marketplace
    • Vodafone: 18m
    • O2: 22m
    • T-Mobile: 17m
    • Orange: 17m
    • Three: 4.4m
    • (TMOrange: 34m)
  • 25. So what mobile platforms are popular for developers?
  • 26. Source: Ewan’s mind
  • 27. 2009 Smartphone Sales by platform, Gartner
  • 28. Smartphone Sales by platform, Gartner, Feb 2010
  • 29. Proper mobile handsets are becoming easily accessible Examples…
  • 30.  
  • 31.  
  • 32.  
  • 33.  
  • 34.  
  • 35.  
  • 36. UK iPhone Sales
    • O2: 2 million
    • Orange & Vodafone just went live
      • Vodafone:
        • 50,000 pre-orders, 100k in 1 st week
      • Orange:
        • 30,000 on first day
  • 37. Don’t forget the rest
    • Say 3 million iPhones in the UK?
    • Leaves roughly 50-60m handsets waiting for developer attention
  • 38. Mobile Applications “ There’s gold in them there hills”
  • 39.  
  • 40. Developing on iPhone…
  • 41.
    • With 140,000 apps, it’s a total lottery
  • 42. Developing on iPhone
    • The Good
    • Easy to develop
    • Gorgeous process
    • Fantastically easy to find and install the app
    • Fancy, cool
    • Users accustomed to downloading apps
    • Users actively hunt for new apps
    • Billing baked right in
    • Pre-qualified – users have money
    • The Bad
    • Discovery problem is absolutely massive
    • Discovery problem is absolutely massive
    • Discovery problem is absolutely massive
    • Roughly 3-4% of the UK
    • Approval: You need to play Apple’s game
  • 43. SYMBIAN
    • The open behemoth
  • 44. Symbian
  • 45.  
  • 46. Developing on Symbian
    • Addressable market of 300 million+
    • Used to be quite a pain
    • 2009: Forget Symbian…
    • 2010: Watch them closely
    • Nokia’s Ovi Store is doing well
      • Respectable 1.5m downloads daily
      • Ovi Store baked into all new handsets
    • Qt development
      • Will completely change developer paradigm
      • Write-once deploy anywhere SDK
      • Qt.nokia.com
  • 47.  
  • 48. ANDROID
    • Not what you think
  • 49. Android: Not quite primetime
    • Still very, very small handset population
    • Fragmenting continually
    • Making the same Symbian mistakes
      • App development: Equivalent to launching show at 2am on a digital TV station
    • Monitor growth of Android but watch Symbian
    • Smart money is on manufacturers switching back to Symbian
  • 50. BLACKBERRY
  • 51.  
  • 52. BlackBerry
    • Often forgotten, but making huge consumer gains
    • Large legacy device population
      • Most corporate devices locked to applications
    • Very keen to work with and support developers
    • Consumers appear keen to spend money on AppWorld
  • 53. VODAFONE
    • 360 degrees of joy?
  • 54.  
  • 55. http://jil.vodafone.com
  • 56. Vodafone 360
    • “ Access 1.1 billion customers”
    • Perhaps 3-4% are addressable
      • That is, using handsets with the 360 store
    • Very keen to see submissions
    • Can be potentially lucrative
      • Nobody else is bothering
    • More information: http://jil.vodafone.com
  • 57. Developer Opportunities Mobile co’s desperate for your attention
  • 58.  
  • 59.  
  • 60.  
  • 61.  
  • 62. Developer Case Study How big is yours?
  • 63. DILEMMA
    • The application developer dilemma: Disclose stats or stay silent?
  • 64. Simon Maddox Independent developer www.simonmaddox.com
  • 65. ‘0870’
  • 66. 0870 by Simon Maddox
    • Finds alternatives to 35p/min 0845 and 0870 numbers
    • Free of charge
    • Spent 429 days ‘in review’
      • Whilst Apple & o2 wondered what to do
    • Advertising funded using AdMob
    • Saved users £268,000 in one month
    • Launched with good press from:
      • The Telegraph, The Guardian, TechCrunch
    • Acceptance delay = good, juicy story
  • 67. 0870 Download Stats From end of Sept to end of October, 2009 www.simonmaddox.com
  • 68. 0870 Ad Revenue Stats
    • Day 1: position 79, $25.58
    • Day 2: position 29, $67.04
    • Day 3: position 7, $120.08 <- peak in ad revenue
    • Day 4: position 5, $118.76
    • Day 5: position 4, $62.48 <- peak in charts
    • Day 6: position 5, $49.41
    • Day 7: position 5, $33.23
    • Day 8: position 5, $40.03
    • Day 9: position 7, $23.96
    • Day 10: position 8, $15.28
    • Day 11: position 16, $17.45
    • Day 12: position 17, $27.37
    • Day 13: position 25, $36.40
    • Day 14: position 30, $25.65
    • Day 15: position 30, $18.01
    • Total: $680.73 (£457)
    $9/day = £2,204 a year
  • 69. Downloads since launch
  • 70. Downloads since launch MoneySavingExpert.com
  • 71. Downloads in the last 30 days
  • 72. Downloads in the last 30 days Featured in Sunday Times
  • 73. 0870 by numbers
    • iPhone downloads: 427,484
      • Best chart position: 4
      • Approval time: 429 days
    • Android downloads: 14,244
      • Best chart position: 21
      • Approval time: 1 second
    • Palm Pre: 1,943
      • Best chart position: 1 (for 4 hours)
      • Approval time: 5 working days
        • Quick tweet to @palm and @adora sped things up
    • Acquisition requests: 3
  • 74. TWITTER
    • Quite a few mobile twitter clients…
  • 75. Twitter on mobile
    • Echofone Pro
    • Tweetie
    • Tweetie 2
    • I use the mobile browser
    • I tweet by SMS :)
    • Gravity
    • Dabr (browser based)
    • Twidroid for Android
    • Twitta on Vodafone 360 H1
    • Twitterberry
    • TweetDeck
    • SocialScope on BlackBerry
    • Snaptu on RIM
    • Twitter Pro
    • TweetDeck
    • TweetS60
    • Twittix on N95
    • Tweetie 2.0 for iPhone
    • Twitdroid
    • UberTwitter for BlackBerry
    • Tweetss60 / dabr
    • Twitterific
    • Pocket Twit on Windows
    Source: MIR audience, Jan 2010
  • 76. Twitter on mobile
    • Echofone Pro
    • Tweetie
    • Tweetie 2 (Top Paid, UK)
    • I use the mobile browser
    • I tweet by SMS :)
    • Gravity
    • Dabr (browser based)
    • Twidroid for Android
    • Twitta on Vodafone 360 H1
    • Twitterberry
    • TweetDeck
    • SocialScope on BlackBerry
    • Snaptu on RIM
    • Twitter Pro
    • TweetDeck
    • TweetS60
    • Twittix on N95
    • Tweetie 2.0 for iPhone
    • Twitdroid
    • UberTwitter for BlackBerry
    • Tweetss60 / dabr
    • Twitterific (Top Free, UK)
    • Pocket Twit on Windows
    Source: MIR audience, Jan 2010
  • 77.  
  • 78. Thinking about developing mobile applications? Things to consider…
  • 79. Developing on mobile
    • Platform
      • Choose the most appropriate for your concept
    • Revenue
      • Ad-funded? Pay-per-download? In-app billing?
    • Audience
      • Make sure you’re targeting an interested audience
    • Reach that audience
      • Don’t rely on a press release
        • Think industry/niche magazines, groups, associations, businesses
  • 80. Finding a developer
    • In the UK, expect to pay £400-500+/day for most platforms
      • Or find a friend
    • Eastern European agencies are popular
    • eLance.com
      • And other hire sites
  • 81. $400
    • Regarding iPhone development: What does $400 get you?
  • 82.  
  • 83.  
  • 84. Questions? [email_address] +44 7769 658 104 @ew4n

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