NBIC Universal Machines Smarter Cities Smarter Universities

1. IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward)
The Future of Innovation:
Convergence & City-University Nodes
IBM Centennial Icon of Progress
Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno
Alexandria/Egypt-Japan University of Science & Technology
Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, spohrer@us.ibm.com
Innovation Champion and Director IBM UPward
(University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development)
Grassroots Innovation Program (hosted at EMC2)
Santa Clara, CA USA, Thursday June 28, 2012
© 2012 IBM Corporation

2. Today’s Talk: The Future of Innovation
 Technologies: Convergence & Universal Machines
– Ten years ago: NSF Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno(Social) 1.0
– This week: NSF NBIC(S) 2.0 = “Nib-Iks-Two-Oh”
– Universal Machines – Info-Nano-Bio-Cogno-Social
 Rules: City-University Nodes & Learning Machines
– Smarter Planet = Smarter Cities & Smarter Universities
– Infrastructure, Individuals, Institutions, Information
– Service Science studies Holistic Product-Service Systems
 What’s important? Your story, your life story
– Quality-of-Life = QoS + QoJ + QoO
• Richard Florida’s “Who’s Your City” ~SJO
– {Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience}
– Human capabilities (T-shaped adaptive people)
2 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

3. NBIC(S)2.0
Social
http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/1/NBIC_overview.pdf
3 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

4. Why Social? Look What’s New… Smarter Planet
Watson Jeopardy!
Cloud Computing, Analytics
Service Science
Social Business
CyberSecurity…
IBM title
Google & Apple
Microsoft
WordPress
LinkedIn
Twitter
HP, Oracle, SAP,
EMC, Facebook,
Etc., etc.
4 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

5. Accelerating Change 2004
50 years: Information technology connecting islands of
information (created by people) into larger networks
3.00E+17
Growth rates for:
2.50E+17
2.00E+17 Nano: Transistors made per second
1.50E+17
transistors
1.00E+17
Bio: Gene sequenced per second,
Cell divisions observed per second,
5.00E+16
fMRI regions scanned per second
0.00E+00
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
About 10 billion transistors made per second
Info: Bytes storage made per second
in 2004, doubling each 18 months
Worldwide Production of Transistors on all Cogno: Emails per second, IM per second
ICs (Source: NSF) Google searchers per second
Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance:
Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and
Cognitive Science
by Mihail C. Roco (Editor), William Sims Bainbridge (Editor)
5 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

6. Accelerating Change 2004
200 year view: Service Dominant Logic
Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size
(about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations)
A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services
Nation % WW % % % 25 yr % 2004 2004
Labor A G S delta S United States
China 21.0 50 15 35 191 (A) Agriculture:
Value from
harvesting nature
India 17.0 60 17 23 28 (G) Goods:
Value from
making products
U.S. 4.8 3 27 70 21
Indonesia 3.9 45 16 39 35 (S) Services:
Value from enhancing the
capabilities of things (customizing,
Brazil 3.0 23 24 53 20 distributing, etc.) and interactions between things
Russia 2.5 12 23 65 38
Japan 2.4 5 25 70 40 The largest labor force migration
Nigeria 2.2 70 10 20 30 in human history is underway,
driven by urbanization,
Banglad. 2.2 63 11 26 30
global communications,
Germany 1.4 3 33 64 44 low cost labor, business growth
>50% (S) services, >33% (S) services and technology innovation.
6 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

7. Accelerating Change 2004
Towards facilitated coevolution of capabilities… (the hypothesis)
Human System Tool System
Service provider helps The choice to
the client by doing some Collaborate Augment change work practices
of it for them (incentives) (tool)
(in a custom way)
requires answering
Z
1 2 four key questions:
Service provider helps - Should we? (Business Value)
- Can we? (Technology)
the client by doing all Delegate Automate
of it for them (outsource) (self-service) - May we? (Governance)
(in a standard way) - Will we? (Work Priorities)
3 4
Incent People Harness Nature
(Social systems with intentional agents) (Technology systems with stochastic parts)
Example: Call Centers
Collaborate Augment Delegate Automate
(1970) (1980) (2000) (2010)
Experts: High skill people on phones Tools: Less skill with FAQ tools Market: Lower cost geography (India) Technology: Voice response system
Bootstrapping: Douglas Engelbart, Coevolution, and the Origins of Personal Computing
by Thierry Bardini
“Increasing our collective capabilities to address complex, urgent problems by improving improvement”
7 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

8. Accelerating Change 2004
Collaborate: Emergence of Collective IQ
 FOXP2 and the Evolution of  “With enough eyeballs, all bugs are
Language, by Alec MacAndrew shallow”
http://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm  “With a large enough smart mob, all
…Detective story from a family with
inferences are shallow”
slurred speech to genes that influence
 Relationship oriented computing tools
brain development and enable speech
Amazon – Recommendation system
(Speech pathology, linguistics, genetics,
embryogenesis, neurophysiology, E-Bay – Reputation system
anthropology, primate evolution, etc.) Google – Relevancy ranking
The Symbolic Species: The Smart Mobs
Co-Evolution of Language by Howard Rheingold
and the Brain
by Terrence W. Deacon
Open Innovation The Cathedral &
by Henry Chesbrough the Bazaar
by Eric S. Raymond
8 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

9. Accelerating Change 2004
WorldBoard
Collaborate (continued)
Connections
by James Burke
Six Degrees: The Science
of a Connected Age
by Duncan J. Watts
Emergence: The Connected
Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities,
and Software
by Steven Johnson
9 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

10. Accelerating Change 2004
Augment: Telerobotics
Doctor: United States Patient: France
First transatlantic telesurgery – September 2001
Roundtrip 14,000 km, time lag 200 milliseconds
Flesh and Machines: How Robots Will Change Us
by Rodney Brooks
“The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote-
presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will
not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for
many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor
economies where no other work is available.” (146-147)
10 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

11. Accelerating Change 2004
http://www.cio.com/offshoremap/
Delegate: Outsourcing
60 Minutes (1/11/04) : Out of India
Measure freedom Measure money
Development as Freedom The Lexus and the Olive Tree:
Understanding Globalization
by Amartya Sen
by Thomas L. Friedman
1998 Nobel Prize
Winner Economics
11 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

12. Accelerating Change 2004
Automate: 3D Printing (a.k.a. stereolithography)
BUILDING BONES. A rat's skull
regenerates better with a new
bone-promoting scaffold (left)
than with a less-sophisticated
Printing Organs
scaffold (right).
F.E. Weber/University Hospital Zurich
“This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a Printing Teeth & Bone
crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of
PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping
material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted
this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block,
and then let the engine run for about 80 hours
to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype
filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases
containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other Printing 3D Gadgets
combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And Printing 3D Electronics
except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear
to have degraded at all.” By Lawrence S. Gould
Rapid Manufacturing: The Technologies and
Applications of Rapid Prototyping and Rapid Tooling
by S. S. Dimov, Duc Truon Pham
12 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

13. Technologies: Convergence & Universal Machines
 Info: Turing Machine
 Nano & Meso: Self-Replicating Machine
 Bio: CAD for Bacteria Machine
 Cogno: Low-Energy Pattern Learning Machine
13 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

14. Info: Universal Machines (Done for Symbols)
 Formalize Algorithm & Computation
– Abstract “Automatic Machine”
– Universal Turing Machine (symbol processor)
 Four (Conceptually) Simple Parts
– Tape (cells with symbol)
– Head (moves to cell and read/write symbols)
– Register of State
– Table of Transitions Alan Turing (1912-1954)
Mathematician & Computer Scientist
 Three Simple Operations
– Read & write a cell on a tape
– Move the head to a new location on a tape
– Change state of the machine
Turing Machine
14 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

15. Nano & Meso: Self-Replicating Machines
 Thought Experiment
– 1947 & 1948 Lectures
– 1955 Scientific American article
– Just way too hard in the 1940’s & 1950’s
– Settled for Cellular Automata
John von Neumann (1903-1957)
Mathematician & Computer Scientist
 Today 3D Printers, Tomorrow Lunar Factories
– RepRap, MakerBot, etc..
Self-Replicating Machines
Artist conception, “self-growing”
MakerBot robotic-lunar factory
15 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

16. Bio: Synthethic Biology (CAD Machines)
 CAD for Bacteria
 Bacteria are brilliant and old (3.5B years)
Craig Venter
Biologist & Entrepreneur
16 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

17. Cogno: SYNPASE (Low-Energy Machines)
 Brains as 1 litre, 20W, Exascale super-computers
 Brains as low-energy, pattern learning machines
Dharmendra Moda
Computer Scientist
17 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

18. What is Smarter Planet?
3 I’s = Smarter Systems (less waste, better decisions)
INSTRUMENTED INTERCONNECTED INTELLIGENT
We now have the ability People, systems and We can respond to changes
to measure, sense and objects can communicate quickly and accurately,
see the exact condition and interact with each and get better results
of practically everything. other in entirely new by predicting and optimizing
PRODUCTS ways.
IT NETWORKS COMMUNICATIONS
for future events.
WORKFORCE SUPPLY CHAIN TRANSPORTATION BUILDINGS
18 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

19. What improves Quality-of-Life?
Smarter Human-Serving Systems = Service System Innovations
* = US Labor % in 2009.
A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*) 20/10/10
1. Transportation & supply chain
2/7/4
2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment2/1/1
7/6/1
3. Food & products manufacturing 1/1/0
4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech
5/17/27
5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access)
B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*)
1/0/2
6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*) 24/24/1
7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*)
2/20/24
7/10/3 (wealthy) (21%*)
8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting
5/2/2
9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*)
10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*)
3/3/1
C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*) 0/0/0
11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax)
1/2/2
12. States/regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax)
0/19/0
13. Nations/NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax)
Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities
“61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”
19 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

20. California Human Development Report 2011:
From meaning-of-life to quality-of-life….
http://www.measureofamerica.org/docs/APortraitOfCA.pdf
20 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

21. Universities key to regions
Nation
 Three Streams State/Province
City/Metro
– Transfer knowledge For-profits U-BEE
Job Creator/Sustainer
– Create knowledge Cultural &
Conference
University
Hospital
Medical
College
Hotels Research
K-12
– Apply knowledge
to co-create value Non-profits Worker
(professional)
Family
(household)
 Nested Holistic Systems
– Flows
– Development
Third Stream is about U-BEEs =
– Governance University-Based Entrepreneurial
Ecosystems
21 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

22. Nations compete and cooperate: Universities important
% WW GDP and % WW Top-500-Universities (2009 Data)
9
Japan
8
7 y = 0,7489x + 0,3534
R² = 0,719 China
6 Germany
5
France
4 United Kingdom
Italy
%
G
D
o
b
P
a
g
l
3
Russia Brazil Spain
Canada
2 India
Mexico South Korea Australia
Turkey Netherlands
1
Sweden
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
% top 500 universities
22 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

23. Sustainability/Resilience & Innovation: Local-p global-i supply chains
World as System of Systems
World (light blue - largest)
Nations (green - large)
States (dark blue - medium)
Cities (yellow - small)
Universities (red - smallest)
Cities as System of Systems
Developed Market -Transportation & Supply Chain
Nations -Water & Waste Recycling
(> $20K GDP/Capita) -Food & Products ((Nano)
-Energy & Electricity
-Information/ICT & Cloud (Info)
-Buildings & Construction
Emerging Market -Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment
Nations -Banking & Finance
(< $20K GDP/Capita) -Healthcare & Family (Bio)
-Education & Professions (Cogno)
-Government (City, State, Nation)
Nations: Innovation Opportunities
- GDP/Capita (level and growth rate)
- Energy/Capita (fossil and renewable)
23 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

24. Regional Competitiveness and U-BEEs:
Where imagined possible worlds become observable real worlds
http://www.service-science.info/archives/1056
Innovations Nation
Universities/ “The future is already
State/Province here (at universities),
Regions City/Region
Calculus (Cambridge/UK)
For-profits
it is just not evenly
Physics (Cambridge/UK) U-BEE
Computer Science (Columbia/NY) distributed.”
Microsoft (Harvard/WA) Job Creator/Sustainer
Yahoo (Stanford/CA) Hospital
Cultural & University
Google (Stanford/CA) Medical
Conference College
Facebook (Harvard/CA) Research
Hotels K-12
“The best way to
Non-profits Worker
(professional)
Family
(household)
predict the future
is to (inspire the next
generation of students
to) build it better.”
U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, City Within City
24 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

25. Priorities: Succeeding through Service Innovation - A Framework for Progress
(http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ssme/)
Source: Workshop and Global Survey of Service Research Leaders (IfM & IBM 2008)
IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward)
1. Emerging demand 2. Define the domain 3. Vision and gaps 4. Bridge the gaps 5. Call for actions
Service Service Service Stakeholder The white paper offers
a starting point to -
Innovation Systems Science Priorities
Growth in service Customer-provider To discover the Education
GDP and jobs interactions that underlying
enable value principles of Skills Develop programmes
Service quality cocreation complex service & Mindset & qualifications
& productivity systems
Dynamic Research
Environmental configurations of Systematically Encourage an
Knowledge
friendly & resources: people, create, scale and interdisciplinary
& Tools approach
sustainable technologies, improve systems
organisations and
Urbanisation & information Foundations laid Business
aging population by existing Employment
Increasing scale, disciplines Develop and improve
& Collaboration
Globalisation & complexity and service innovation
technology drivers connectedness of Progress in
Government roadmaps, leading to a
service systems academic studies doubling of investment
Opportunities for and practical tools Policies in service education
businesses, B2B, B2C, C2C, & Investment and research by 2015
governments and B2G, G2C, G2G Gaps in knowledge
individuals service networks and skills
Glossary of definitions, history and outlook of service research, global trends, and ongoing debate
© 2012 IBM Corporation

26. What is service science? A service system? The ABC’s?
Design/
Cognitive Science Systems
Engineering
“service science is “a service system is a
the transdisciplinary study of human-made system to improve
service systems & provider-customer interactions
value-cocreation” and value-cocreation outcomes,
by dynamically configuring resource
Marketing access via value propositions,
most often studied by many disciplines,
one piece at a time.”
The ABC’s:
The provider (A)
and a customer (B)
transform a target (C)
Computer Science/
Artificial Intelligence Economics & Law Operations
26 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

27. 27 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

28. Resiliency: Capability to rebuild (and recycle) rapidly
China Broad Group:
30 Stories in 15 Days
28 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

29. Manufacturing as a local recycling & assembly service
Ryan Chin:
Urban Mobility
29 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

30. Self-driving cars
Steve Mahan:
Test “Driver”
30 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

31. Imagining quality-of-life innovations…
31 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

32. City challenge: buildings and transportation
Ryan Chin:
Smart Cities
32 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

33. Cities: land-population-energy-carbon
Carlo Ratti:
Senseable Cities
33 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

34. Four measures
 Innovativeness
 Equity
 Sustainability
 Resiliency
34 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

35. US National Academy of Engineering Grand Challenges
A. Systems that focus on flow of things humans need
1. Transportation & Supply Chain
Restore and enhance urban infrastructure
2. Water & Waste/Climate & Green tech
Provide access to clear water
3. Food & Products
Manager nitrogen cycle
4. Energy & Electricity
Make solar energy economical
Provide energy from fusion
Develop carbon sequestration methods
5. Information & Communication Technology
Enhance virtual reality
Secure cyberspace
Reverse engineer the brain
B. Systems that focus on human activity & development
6. Buildings & Construction (smart spaces)
Restore and enhance urban infrastructure
7. Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment (tourism)
Enhance virtual reality
8. Banking & Finance/Business & Consulting
9. Healthcare & Family Life
Advance health informatics
Engineer better medicines
Reverse engineer the brain
10. Education & Work Life/Jobs & Entrepreneurship
Advance personalized learning
Engineer the tools of scientific discovery
C. Systems that focus on human governance
11. City & Security
Restore and improve urban infrastructure
Secure cyberspace
Prevent nuclear terror
12. State/Region & Development
13. Nation & Rights
35 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

36. Systems-Disciplines Framework: Depth & Breadth
systems Systems that focus on flows of things Systems that support people’s activities Systems that govern
transportation & ICT & retail & healthcare
food & education city state nation
disciplines supply chain water & energy
products & electricity
cloud building & hospitality banking & family
&work secure scale laws
waste construction & finance
behavioral sciences
Customer
stakeholders
e.g., marketing
Provider management sciences
e.g., operations
Observe Stakeholders (As-Is)
political sciences
Authority
e.g., public policy
learning sciences
Competitors e.g., game theory
and strategy
cognitive sciences
People
e.g., psychology
resources
system sciences
Technology
e.g., industrial eng.
information sciences
Observe Resource Access (As-Is)
Information
e.g., computer sci
organization sciences
Organizations
e.g., knowledge mgmt
History social sciences
change
e.g., econ & law
(Data Analytics)
decision sciences
Imagine Possibilities (Has-Been & Might-Become)
Future e.g., stats & design
(Roadmap)
run professions
Run
e.g., knowledge worker
Transform
value
(Copy)
transform professions
e.g., consultant
Realize Value (To-Be)
Innovate innovate professions
(Invent)
e.g., entrepreneur
36 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

37. T-shaped professionals
depth & breadth
Many cultures
Many disciplines
Many systems
(understanding & communications)
BREADTH
Deep in one discipline
Deep in one system
Deep in one culture
DEPTH
(analytic thinking & problem solving)
37
37 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

38. From Work Done By the Institute for the Future (IFTF.org)
Transdisciplinary = T-Shaped People (Breadth & Depth)
38 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

39. Evolving regional talent & skills
making long term investments to develop talent for the growth markets
Government Global Placements & Collaboration with
Partnerships Mentoring Universities
Transferring knowledge and IBM works with 5,000 universities
By helping governments to and 10,000 faculties around the
establish new national expertise to the growth markets is
critical. One of the ways we do this globe. We have joint initiatives
research facilities, we are and investments with universities
helping to create new is to move experts into the market to
in Vietnam, Malaysia, India,
industries, helping to develop coach and train local teams. Russia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Egypt,
long terms skills curriculums China and Africa to encourage
like SSME.+D the training of skills required.
39 IBM GMU External Relations 2012

40. A Framework for Global Civil Society
 Daniel Patrick Moynihan said nearly 50 years ago: "If you want to
build a world class city, build a great university and wait 200
years." His insight is true today – except yesterday's 200 years
has become twenty. More than ever, universities will generate and
sustain the world’s idea capitals and, as vital creators,
incubators, connectors, and channels of thought and
understanding, they will provide a framework for global civil
society.
– John Sexton, President NYU
40 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

41. Visit IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA
 Upcoming Conferences
– July 2012
• ISSS San Jose
• HSSE San Francisco
 More Information
– Blog
• www.service-science.info
– Twitter
• @JimSpohrer
– Presentations
• www.slideshare.net/spohrer
– Email
• spohrer@us.ibm.com
41 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

42. IBM Centennial: Icon of Progress
42 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

43. IBM’s Leadership Changes
IBM has 426,000
employees worldwide
2011 Financials
22% of IBM’s revenue
 Revenue - $ 106.9B
in Growth Market
 Net Income - $ 15.9B
countries; growing at
11% in 2011  EPS - $ 13.44
 Net Cash - $16.6B More than 40% of IBM’s
workforce conducts business
away from an office
55% of IBM’s Workforce
IBM operates in 170 is New to the company in
countries around the globe the last 5 years
Number 1 in patent
generation for 19
100 Years of Business consecutive years ;
& Innovation in 2011 6,180 US patents
awarded in 2011 The Smartest Machine On Earth
9 time winner of the 5 Nobel
President’s National Laureates
Medal of Technology
& Innovation - latest “Let’s Build a Smarter
award for Blue Gene Planet"
Supercomputer
43 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

44. “Back-up” Tokyo
 Resort
 Tourism
 Business
 Backup City
44 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

45. Technology has a cost
 “The burden of knowledge”
Cesar Hidalgo:
Societal Knowledge
45 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

46. The limits of our individual knowledge
46 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

47. Societal and individual knowledge
Herbert Simon: Ben Jones:
Bounded Rationality Burden of Knowledge
47 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

48. Specialization has benefits
Adam Smith: David Ricardo:
Division of Labor Comparative Advantage
48 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

49. Recombination (integration) has benefits
Joseph Schumpeter: Brian Arthur:
Creative Destruction Nature of Technology
49 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

50. 'building smarter systems isn't simply a proposal or theory, but a practical
reality, with clear steps, quantifiable benefits and best practices'
- Sam Palmisano
Where are the opportunities? Every city and region!
50 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

51. What are the benefits of more education? Of higher skills?
…But it can be costly, American student loan debt is over $900M
51 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

52. ~30 years of skill transformations: depth & breadth
15
10 Expert Thinking
5 Complex Communication
0 Routine Manual
Non-routine Manual
-5
Routine Cognitive
-10
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
Levy, F, & Murnane, R. J. (2004). The New Division of Labor: How
Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Princeton University Press.
52 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

53. Thank-You! Questions?
“Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM
“If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org
“Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU
“Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli
“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson
“The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay
“Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer
“Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge
“History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells
“The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov
“Think global, act local.” – Geddes
Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer
Innovation Champion &
Director, IBM University Programs & open worldwide entrepreneurship research (IBM UPower) WW
spohrer@us.ibm.com
53 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

54. 14B Where is the “Real Science” - wonders to appreciate? 10K
Big Bang In the many sciences that study the natural and human-made worlds… Cities
(Natural Unraveling the mystery of evolving hierarchical-complexity in new populations… (Human-Made
Time
World) To discover the world’s architectures and mechanisms for computing non-zero-sum
Entity Architectures (ЄN) of nested, networked Holistic-Product-Service-Systems (HPSS)
World)
writing
(symbols and scribes,
stored memory
and knowledge)
written laws
ECOLOGY
(governance and
stored control)
sun (energy) money
earth (governed
(molecules & transportable value
stored energy) stored value,
“economic energy”)
bacteria
(single-cell life)
bees (social
sponges transistor
division-of-labor)
(multi-cell life) (routine
cognitive work) universities
(knowledge workers
clams (neurons) printing press (books
54 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
trilobites (brains) 200M 60 steam engine (work)

55. Value-cocreation from resource fusion (integration) and fission (specialization)
Criminals Government
Agents Users Agencies Insurance Competitors
Intermediaries
Consultants
Customers Web Communities
Managers Third Parties
Shareholders Engineers Banks eBusinesses
Suppliers
Contractors Employees
PEOPLE ORGANIZATIONS
Needs Experience
Aspirations AS-IS OUTCOME Learning Benefits
Wants Target &
Relationships
Context
SERVICE Target &
Context
Gaps
Side Effects
Goals Constraints TO-BE (Value-Cocreation) IF-REDONE Sacrifices
Target &
Disputes
Target &
Responsibilities Context Context
Unintended Consequences
Expectations
TECHNOLOGY/ SHARED Insights
ENVIRONMENT INFORMATION
Procedures
Regulations
Policies
Hardware
Buildings Vehicles Flowcharts Plans
Applications
Diagrams
/ Schematics
Equipment Instructions Rules 55
Tools Templates
Infrastructure Software
Schedules

56. Up-Skill = New Venture = Graduates with
Smarter Planet skills
= High-Growth
Cycle = Acquisition = IBMer moving from
Acquisition/
New IBM BU
mature BU to acquisition
(Growing)
= IBMer moving into
IBMer on Campus role
(help create graduates = High-Productivity/
University-Region1 with Smarter-Planet skills, Mature IBM BU
help create Smarter Planet
oriented new ventures; (Shrinking)
Refresh skills
University-Region2
IBM
56 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

57. ~250 years of infrastructure transformations
Installation Crash Deployment
Irruption Frenzy Synergy Maturity
• Formation of Mfg. industry
1 The Industrial 1771
Panic • Repeal of Corn Laws 1829
Revolution 1797
opening trade
• Standards on gauge, time
Age of Steam Panic
2 and Railways
1829
1847
• Catalog sales companies 1873
• Economies of scale
Age of Steel, Depressio • Urban development
3 Electricity 1875
n • Support for interventionism
1920
1893
and Heavy
Engineering • Build-out of Interstate
Age of Oil, Crash
4 Automobiles
1908
1929 highways 1974
• IMF, World Bank, BIS
and Mass Production
Coming period of
Age of Information Credit Crisis
5 and
1971 2008 Institutional Adjustment
and Production Capital
Telecommunications
Source: Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages; (Edward Elar Publishers, 2003).
57 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

58. ~100 years of US job transformations
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis
58 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

59. We need better frameworks, theories, and models of…
 Four I’s
Cultural Information
– Infrastructure
(Quality-of-Life Measures)
– Individuals
– Institutions
– Information
Individuals Institutions
 Four Measures (Skills) (Rules, Jobs)
– Innovativeness
– Equity
– Sustainability Societal Infrastructure
– Resiliency (Technologies & Environment)
59 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

60. Service systems entities learn to apply knowledge
Learning
To Apply Knowledge
Do It Invent It
Exploitation Exploration
Run Transform Innovate
Operations L Internal Incremental
Maintenance
Copy It External Radical
Insurance Interaction Super-Radical
March, J.G. (1991) Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organizational Science. 2(1).71-87.
Sanford, L.S. (2006) Let go to grow: Escaping the commodity trap. Prentice Hall. New York, NY.
60 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

61. Service Science: Conceptual Framework
Ecology
(Populations & Diversity)
Entities Interactions Outcomes
(Service Systems, both (Service Networks, (Value Changes, both
Individuals & Institutions) link, nest, merge, divide) beneficial and non-beneficial)
Identity Value Proposition Governance Mechanism Reputation
(Aspirations & Lifecycle/ (Offers & Reconfigurations/ (Rules & Constraints/ (Opportunities & Variety/
History) Incentives, Penalties & Risks) Incentives, Penalties & Risks) History)
Access Rights Measures
(Relationships of Entities) (Rankings of Entities)
lose-win win-win prefer sustainable
lose-lose win-lose non-zero-sum
Resources Stakeholders outcomes,
(Competences, Roles in Processes, (Processes of Valuing, i.e., win-win
Specialized, Integrated/Holistic) Perspectives, Engagement)
 Resources: People, Organizations, Technology, Shared Information
 Resources: Individuals, Institutions, Infrastructure, Information
 Stakeholders: Customers, Providers, Authorities, Competitors
 Measures: Quality, Productivity, Compliance, Sustainable Innovation
 Access Rights: Own, Lease, Shared, Privileged
Spohrer, JC (2011) On looking into Vargo and Lusch's concept of generic actors in markets, or
“It's all B2B …and beyond!” Industrial Marketing Management, 40(2), 199–201.
61 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

62. Our Past, Present, Future:
Refining Individuals & Institutions Learning Together
TECHNOLOGY IMMERSION
Any Device Learning Primary
School In
div
idu
Secondary al s
PERSONAL LEARNING PATHS School Le
ar Workforce
Student-Centered Processes Higher
nin Skills
g
Education Co
nt
Continuing inu
KNOWLEDGE SKILLS Education um The
Learning Communities Educational
Intelligent Continuum
• Aligned Data u m
GLOBAL INTEGRATION • Outcomes Insight t inu
n
Services Specialization Instrumented Co Economic
in g Sustainability
• Student-centric
rn
• Integrated Assessment
L ea
ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT Interconnected io ns
• Shared Services t ut
ti
ns
Systemic View of Education • Interoperable Processes
I
http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/education-for-a-smarter-planet.html
62 62 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

63. 63 IBM GMU External Relations 2012

64. Analytics is enabling clients with trusted
and relevant information in REAL TIME
• For each industry the journey consists of a series of steps along a path of competencies to reach a
smarter outcome for organizations
• The power to pull together many sources of data in real time to source actionable insights and optimize
clients’ business
• Revenue IBM generated from Analytics solutions grew 16% from 2010
Through to 2015,
more than 85% of
Fortune 500
organizations will fail
to exploit ‘big data’ for
competitive
advantage
--Gartner Predictions
2012
64 IBM GMU External Relations 2012

65. Developing capabilities that improve
visibility, control and automation of cloud
computing services
IBMSmartCloud
Business Process as a Service
Software as a Service
Platform as a Service
Infrastructure as a Service
IBMSmartCloud IBMSmartCloud IBMSmartCloud
Foundation Services Solutions
Private & Hybrid Clouds Managed Cloud Services Cloud Business Solutions
Cloud Enablement technologies Infra & platform as a Service Software & Business Process
as a Service
Commitment to open standards & broad ecosystems
65 IBM GMU External Relations 2012

66. 66 IBM GMU External Relations 2012

67. Central Greater
Australia Eastern China India Latin Middle East
New Zealand ASEAN Europe Group South Asia Korea America Africa
Brisbane Seoul Buenos Aires
Sydney Bandar Seri Begawan Sofia Chandigarh
Beijing Daejeon Daegu Cordoba
Auckland Jakarta Zagreb Luanda
Hong Kong Dehradun Kwangju Rosario
Perth Surabaya Prague Qatar
Taipei Delhi Pusan Rio de Janeiro
Adelaide Medan Brno Alexandria
Hefei Gurgaon Salvador
Hobart Makassar Ostrava Cairo
Xiamen Noida Fortalez
Ballarat Manila Tallinn Accra
Chongqing Jaipur Belo Horizonte
Melbourne Cebu Budapest Nairobi
Shanghai Lucknow Uberlandia
Wellington Chiangmai Almaty Casablanca
Beijing Guwahati Recife
Christchurch Bangkok Riga Port Louis
Tianjin Ahmedabad Curitiba
Lower Hutt Pattaya Vilnius Lagos
Fuzhou Indore Porto Alegre
DaNang Warsaw Karachi
Guangzhou Mumbai Campinas
Ho Chi Minh City Wroclaw Islamabad
Shenzhen Kolkata Joinville
Krakow Lahore
Nanjing Pune Anto fogasta
Gdansk Riyadh
Harbin Bhubaneshwar Medellin
Katowice Dakar
Shijiazhuang Hyderabad Cali
Poznan Johannesburg
Wuhan Vizag Guayaquil
Bucharest Pretoria
Zhengzou Bangalore Guadalajara
Timisoara Durban
Changsha Chennai Monterrey
Ufa Cape Town
Changchun Coimbatore Queretaro
Kazan Port Elizabeth
Nanning Kochi Lima
Rostov-on-Don Bloemfontein
Suzhou Nasik
Samara Dar es Salaam
Nanchang Colombo
Perm Tunis
Shenyang Dakkar
Novosibirrsk Abu Dhabi
Established Krasnoyarsk
Moscow
Dalian
Taiyuah
Dubai
Ouangadougou
presence in St Petersburg
Ekaterinburg
Qingdao
Jinan
N’Djamena
Kinshasa
many Belgrade
Bratislava
Xi’an
Chengdu
Libreville
Accra
Growth Banska Bystrica
Kosice
Urumchi
Kunming
Lilongwe
Antananarivo
Market Ljubljana
Ankara
Hangzhou
Ningbo
Niamey
Seychelles
countries... Istanbul
Izmire
Freetown
Kampala
Dnepropetrovsk Lusaka
Kiev
Tashkent
67 IBM GMU External Relations 2012
67

68. Accelerating Change 2004
Outside-Inside Framework Applied: Past & Future
How much have cognitive capabilities been increasing?
 - 100,000 Generations: Speech
New Species (Kind of Agent)
New Use of Old Sense (sounds -> symbols: language)
 - 500 : Writing
New Mediator: Store symbols for later use (and New Skills = Scribes)
 - 400 : Libraries, 40 Universities, 24 Printing
New Mediator, Places: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations)
 - 16 : Accurate Clocks for Navigation & More
New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organization)
 - 5 : Telephone, 4 - Radio, 3 - TV, 2 - Computers, 1 - Internet
New Mediator: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses)
New Use Old Sense: Stories (e.g., Why Honeymooners = Flintstones)
 -0.5 :GPS/Sensors for Navigation & More
New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses)
 +0.5 : On-Demand e-Business (?business on demand?)
New Agent (Businesses become more automated, adaptive, resilient, responsive)
 +1 : NBIC (?nano-bio-info-cogno convergence?)
New Material (Nanotechnology – first impact on materials, electronics, and life sciences)
New Sense (Bionics - neural & biochemical interfaces cure deafness, blindness, organ failure)
New Mediator (Information WorldBoard - planetary augmented reality system)
New Agents (Cognitive robots or Bots - natural language interface to all human knowledge)
 +5 : Utility Fog (?materials on demand?)
New Material (Utility Fog – billions of particles assemble on-demand to create macro-scale objects)
Nonzero : The Logic of Human Destiny by Robert Wright
68 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

69. Accelerating Change 2004
The New Environment and Human Activity: Where does our time go?
From the search for food to the search for information
Humans as Informavore (Miller, 1983)
Source: Pirolli (2002)
Energy Information
Max [ Energy
Time ] Max [
Useful info
Time ]
69 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

70. Accelerating Change 2004
Cognitive capabilities: In pursuit of a metric
 Knowledge in our minds is soft capability
 Knowledge in our genes, body, brains is hard capability
 Knowledge in our organizations is relationship capability
 However, in human and social systems attitudes, incentives, and
games are an element of the cognitive capabilities of the system
 Given a goal: land and safely return humans on Mars, one can
estimate how many resources would be required to achieve this goal
given the cognitive capabilities of the system.
 How does one compare the complexity of achieving different goals?
 How does one compare sensing, communications, decision making,
and execution performance?
Natural-Born Cyborgs: Minds, Technologies, and the Future of Human
Intelligence
by Andy Clark
“…human cognitive evolution seems to involve the distinct way human brains
repeatedly create and exploit various species of cognitive technology.” (pg. 78)
70 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation

71. 
Identifies entrepreneurs developing
businesses aligning with our Smarter
Planet vision.

SmartCamp finalists raised more than
$50m and received significant press in
Exclusive Networking and Wall Street Journal, Forbes and
Bloomberg
Mentoring event
-
Healthcare SmartCamp kickstart - Miami - May 15, 2012
Apply by April 27th
SmarterCities SmartCamp kickstart - New York - May 24, 2012
Apply by May 3rd
North America Regional SmartCamp - Boston - June 20 & 21, 2012
Apply by May 25th
apply now at www.ibm.com/isv/startup/smartcamp
71
North America SmartCamp lead: Eric Apse, eapse@us.ibm.com
University Programs lead: Dawn Tew, dawn2@us.ibm.com
71 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation