State Of Mind And Failure “ It Seemed Like The Thing To Do At The Time” “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

State Of Mind And Failure

“Stay the course”

Help Me, Obi Wan… When failing, we often seek rescue. We look to others. From outside…

When failing, we often seek rescue.

We look to others.

From outside…

Shantideva “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: ex change of self and other.” Shantideva Shantideva 8th century Buddhist philosopher Author of Bodhicaryavatara “Entering the Path of Enlightenment” “… long poem describing the process of enlightenment from the first thought to full buddhahood ”

“ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: ex change of self and other.”

Shantideva

Shantideva

8th century Buddhist philosopher

Author of Bodhicaryavatara “Entering the Path of Enlightenment”

“… long poem describing the process of enlightenment from the first thought to full buddhahood ”

The Wrong Thing, At the Wrong Time My Tale “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

A Great Idea! Winter 1999 - March 2000: Decide to become venture-back entrepreneur Assemble founding team: 2 in US, 1 in China Refine initial idea Field research and business development in China Draft business plan >> Dot com crash… “ ChinaVertex will be a Pacific Rim trade nexus that links suppliers in China with buyers around the world in a secure, neutral, real-time trading environment which converts surplus consumer goods into sale-ready, profitable commodities.”

Winter 1999 - March 2000:

Decide to become venture-back entrepreneur

Assemble founding team: 2 in US, 1 in China

Refine initial idea

Field research and business development in China

Draft business plan

>> Dot com crash…

Comprehensive Execution… Spring 2000 – Spring 2001 Receive & reject first international funding offer (high-risk) Refine plan: strategy, financials, technology, operations, marketing, etc. Grow team from 3 to 7 people Identify advisors in US and China Active business development in China, US >> We were already failing, but didn’t realize it!

Spring 2000 – Spring 2001

Receive & reject first international funding offer (high-risk)

Refine plan: strategy, financials, technology, operations, marketing, etc.

Grow team from 3 to 7 people

Identify advisors in US and China

Active business development in China, US

>> We were already failing, but didn’t realize it!

A Great Plan

Impressive Prose “ A fully-dimensioned B2B trading space is defined by three orthogonal axes: material or goods, information, and capital. Traditional B2B exchange ventures occupy positions in the trading space that intersect with only two of these axes, information and capital, making them effectively two-dimensional entities. Though the B2B exchange model does increase the value of the capital and information flows which it manages in a limited fashion, it in fact restricts the opportunities for buying and supplying parties to maximize the value of the axial constituents they are primarily interested in, by confining the interconnection and exposure of transactions to only two dimensions. More importantly, a two-dimensional model can only be successful when other entities external to the trading space proper can supply would-be exchange customers with services that address their business needs along the third, material axis. Typically, these needs revolve around confirming, maintaining, or even increasing the material value of traded goods to their buyers. China is such a trading space, where unique conditions mandating that solution-providers exhibit immanence on all three axes prevail. While several B2B ventures address the China trading space on the two common axes of information and capital flow, none adequately acknowledges the importance of the third (material) aspect to their business model or strategy. At best, they provide poorly integrated, second-degree access points to goods verification and logistics services, through loosely structured partnerships and referral arrangements.”

“ A fully-dimensioned B2B trading space is defined by three orthogonal axes: material or goods, information, and capital. Traditional B2B exchange ventures occupy positions in the trading space that intersect with only two of these axes, information and capital, making them effectively two-dimensional entities. Though the B2B exchange model does increase the value of the capital and information flows which it manages in a limited fashion, it in fact restricts the opportunities for buying and supplying parties to maximize the value of the axial constituents they are primarily interested in, by confining the interconnection and exposure of transactions to only two dimensions. More importantly, a two-dimensional model can only be successful when other entities external to the trading space proper can supply would-be exchange customers with services that address their business needs along the third, material axis. Typically, these needs revolve around confirming, maintaining, or even increasing the material value of traded goods to their buyers. China is such a trading space, where unique conditions mandating that solution-providers exhibit immanence on all three axes prevail. While several B2B ventures address the China trading space on the two common axes of information and capital flow, none adequately acknowledges the importance of the third (material) aspect to their business model or strategy. At best, they provide poorly integrated, second-degree access points to goods verification and logistics services, through loosely structured partnerships and referral arrangements.”

Detailed Financials

Going All In March - August 2001 >> Decide to pursue venture full-time Hire CEO Team grows to 10 people Prospect & reject first US funding offer (insufficient) Prospect & rejected 2 nd US funding offer (untrustworthy) Continued Business development in China Prospect 3 rd funding offer (legitimate)

March - August 2001

>> Decide to pursue venture full-time

Hire CEO

Team grows to 10 people

Prospect & reject first US funding offer (insufficient)

Prospect & rejected 2 nd US funding offer (untrustworthy)

Continued Business development in China

Prospect 3 rd funding offer (legitimate)

Chasing A Moving Target

The End September 2001 >> Resume working full-time >> September 11 attacks shut down capital markets >> Disband venture

September 2001

>> Resume working full-time

>> September 11 attacks shut down capital markets

>> Disband venture

A Moment of Contemplation Conan; on the Tree of Woe

A Series of Classic Blunders Complex concept Difficult funding climate Hiring the wrong CEO Refusing 1st funding offer Growing team too quickly Unrealistic financial projections Underestimated operational challenges >> Didn’t get involved on the ground in Asia (soon enough)

Complex concept

Difficult funding climate

Hiring the wrong CEO

Refusing 1st funding offer

Growing team too quickly

Unrealistic financial projections

Underestimated operational challenges

>> Didn’t get involved on the ground in Asia (soon enough)

Our True Mistake(s) We defined ourselves as venture funded. We never changed our self definition. “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva

We defined ourselves as venture funded.

We never changed our self definition.

No, really, it *is* falling! When The Sky Is Falling “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

Societal Failure As A Learning Opportunity Stakes of societal failure are *high* A society / culture is at risk, or has failed Affects are comprehensive Involves *everyone* Affects *everything* Societies have resources to help avoid failure Specialized knowledge Sophisticated structures for decision making and control Humans adaptable species >> resilience Connections to other societies >> potential rescue

Stakes of societal failure are *high*

A society / culture is at risk, or has failed

Affects are comprehensive

Involves *everyone*

Affects *everything*

Societies have resources to help avoid failure

Specialized knowledge

Sophisticated structures for decision making and control

Humans adaptable species >> resilience

Connections to other societies >> potential rescue

Societal Failure As A Learning Opportunity Failure on the level of a whole society shows: High intensity Broad scope Why did they fail? Why didn’t they succeed? Can this shed light on my failed venture? Is there is a broader lesson or insight?

Failure on the level of a whole society shows:

High intensity

Broad scope

Why did they fail?

Why didn’t they succeed?

Can this shed light on my failed venture?

Is there is a broader lesson or insight?

A Machine For Making Statues Easter Island “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

A Machine For Making Statues

No Man Is An Island Easter Island is the most remote inhabited area on the planet

Easter Island is the most remote inhabited area on the planet

A Moai Making Machine 300 ahu (platform and burial sites) 300 tons of stone in a small ahu 10,000 tons of stone in largest 400 moai on platforms around the island Average moai 13’ tall, weighs 10 tons Larger moai up to 32’ tall and 75 tons 400 moai partly completed in quarries Up to 75’ tall, weighing 270 tons

300 ahu (platform and burial sites)

300 tons of stone in a small ahu

10,000 tons of stone in largest

400 moai on platforms around the island

Average moai 13’ tall, weighs 10 tons

Larger moai up to 32’ tall and 75 tons

400 moai partly completed in quarries

Up to 75’ tall, weighing 270 tons

The Product…

A Recipe For Failure

Collapse "The overall picture for Easter is the most extreme example of forest destruction in the Pacific, and among the most extreme in the world: the whole forest gone , and all of its tree species extinct .” Diamond, Jared . Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed . Penguin Books: 2005. ISBN 0-14-303655-6 .

"The overall picture for Easter is the most extreme example of forest destruction in the Pacific, and among the most extreme in the world: the whole forest gone , and all of its tree species extinct .”

Collapse “ In the 19th century, disease due to contacts with Europeans, as well as deportation of 2,000 Rapanui to work as slaves in Peru, and the forced departure of the remaining Rapanui to Chile, carried the population of Easter Island to the all time low of 111 inhabitants in 1877 .” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter_Island

“ In the 19th century, disease due to contacts with Europeans, as well as deportation of 2,000 Rapanui to work as slaves in Peru, and the forced departure of the remaining Rapanui to Chile, carried the population of Easter Island to the all time low of 111 inhabitants in 1877 .”

Easter Island Today Easter Island is almost totally deforested http://maps. google .com/maps? f=q &hl=en& q=Easter +Island&layer=& ie=UTF8 & z=13 & t=k & om=1 & iwloc=addr

Easter Island is almost totally deforested

A Forest of Moai http://www.tagzania.com/item/35784 http://maps.google.com/maps?q=-27.1257820129,-109.276832581(Easter%20Island%20Statues,%20Chile)&z=14&t=h

A Tikopial Paradise Tikopia “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

A Tikopial Paradise

Tikopia

Tikopia [http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&ll=-12.296397,168.831367&spn=0.185166,0.248222&t=k&om=1&mid=117457773]7

Changing Models of Sustenance Colonist 900 B.C - ~100 B.C. Slash and burn farming Mining shell fish Harvesting bird colonies >> Not sustainable Shellfish populations crash Land birds extinct Sea bird colonies reduced Forest cover destroyed Traditional Farmer ~100 B.C - 1600 A.D Forest orchard cultivation Intensive pig farming >> Not sustainable Cannot support population growth Livestock destroy gardens and orchards Permaculture 1600 A.D. - Present Managed permaculture Managed use of sea turtles, fish, shell fish >> Sustainable No large land animals Tightly managed stable population Introduced plants recreate forest canopy as garden Deliberate change to permaculture

Colonist

900 B.C - ~100 B.C.

Slash and burn farming

Mining shell fish

Harvesting bird colonies

>> Not sustainable

Shellfish populations crash

Land birds extinct

Sea bird colonies reduced

Forest cover destroyed

Traditional Farmer

~100 B.C - 1600 A.D

Forest orchard cultivation

Intensive pig farming

>> Not sustainable

Cannot support population growth

Livestock destroy gardens and orchards

Permaculture

1600 A.D. - Present

Managed permaculture

Managed use of sea turtles, fish, shell fish

>> Sustainable

No large land animals

Tightly managed stable population

Introduced plants recreate forest canopy as garden

A Comparison Tikopia Settled earlier (~100 B.C.E.) Smaller (2 sq. miles) No native large land animals Fewer natural resources Higher population density Closer to other settlements Easter Island Settled later (~900 A.D.) Larger (69 sq. miles) No native large land animals More natural resources Lower population density Remote: closest settlement 1400 miles

Tikopia

Settled earlier (~100 B.C.E.)

Smaller (2 sq. miles)

No native large land animals

Fewer natural resources

Higher population density

Closer to other settlements

Easter Island

Settled later (~900 A.D.)

Larger (69 sq. miles)

No native large land animals

More natural resources

Lower population density

Remote: closest settlement 1400 miles

Tikopian Flexibility 2 impending societal failures 2 dramatic shifts in sustenance model 2 changes in self-definition 2 failures averted Potentially high level of resilience…

2 impending societal failures

2 dramatic shifts in sustenance model

2 changes in self-definition

2 failures averted

Potentially high level of resilience…

Tikopia Today

A Review of the Examples Presented Is Shantideva Right? “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

Beginning Proposition “Just as states of mind, cultural outlooks, and unspoken framing assumptions make substantial contributions to failure on smaller scales - such as small teams, or for a single design project - large organizations and even whole societies find themselves failing because of the ways they think about situations and themselves.”

“Just as states of mind, cultural outlooks, and unspoken framing assumptions make substantial contributions to failure on smaller scales - such as small teams, or for a single design project - large organizations and even whole societies find themselves failing because of the ways they think about situations and themselves.”

Our Examples My team refused to change self-definition, and failed. Tikopians avoided failure by changing their self-definition. Easter Islanders refused to change, and failed. Possible Conclusions: Changing one’s self-definition can (sometimes) avoid failure Ability to change self-definition increases potential for averting failure Ability to change self-definition increases resilience >> Shantideva may be onto something

My team refused to change self-definition, and failed.

Tikopians avoided failure by changing their self-definition.

Easter Islanders refused to change, and failed.

Possible Conclusions:

Changing one’s self-definition can (sometimes) avoid failure

Ability to change self-definition increases potential for averting failure

Ability to change self-definition increases resilience

>> Shantideva may be onto something

Implications for designers You may be part of the problem Self definition limits your ability to define situations and problems Boundaries limit ability to change things Your client may be the problem Self-definition may make failure inevitable Unless you can change the client’s view, failure may be inevitable

You may be part of the problem

Self definition limits your ability to define situations and problems

Boundaries limit ability to change things

Your client may be the problem

Self-definition may make failure inevitable

Unless you can change the client’s view, failure may be inevitable

What To Change? Looking For Leverage “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

The Problem of Self Self-definition is very broad Retrospectives look backward… … Life moves forward! Who has time for contemplation? Often no trees are handy… Especially if your society is collapsing! How do groups discuss self-definition? Let alone a whole society *This painting = anatomically correct… Self Portrait with Felt Hat painted by Vincent van Gogh, 1888. Oil on canvas. 44x37.5cm. The painting is in the collection Van Gogh Museum , Amsterdam

Self-definition is very broad

Retrospectives look backward…

… Life moves forward!

Who has time for contemplation?

Often no trees are handy…

Especially if your society is collapsing!

How do groups discuss self-definition?

Let alone a whole society

*This painting = anatomically correct…

Potential Leverage Points All kinds of things can be described as complex systems: Societies Ecologies Corporations Startup teams Design projects Smart people have found leverage points for complex systems “ These are places within a complex system …where a small shift in one thing can produce big changes in everything. ” Leverage points are specific, identifiable, actionable (sometimes…) >> Successful push on a leverage point might avert failure!

All kinds of things can be described as complex systems:

Societies

Ecologies

Corporations

Startup teams

Design projects

Smart people have found leverage points for complex systems

“ These are places within a complex system …where a small shift in one thing can produce big changes in everything. ”

Leverage points are specific, identifiable, actionable (sometimes…)

>> Successful push on a leverage point might avert failure!

The Twelve Leverage Points Set of defined leverage points for intervening in complex systems First published by Donella Meadows in Whole Earth Catalog of 1997 Donella Meadows: Ph.D. Biophysics (Harvard University) Founder of the Sustainability Institute Professor at Dartmouth College Pew Scholar in Conservation and Environment MacArthur Fellow Initiator of discussion on global growth limits and sustainability Nominated for the Pulitzer Prize in 1991 >> Donella Meadows = systems dynamics and environment / ecology expert

Set of defined leverage points for intervening in complex systems

First published by Donella Meadows in Whole Earth Catalog of 1997

Donella Meadows:

Ph.D. Biophysics (Harvard University)

Founder of the Sustainability Institute

Professor at Dartmouth College

Pew Scholar in Conservation and Environment

MacArthur Fellow

Initiator of discussion on global growth limits and sustainability

Nominated for the Pulitzer Prize in 1991

>> Donella Meadows = systems dynamics and environment / ecology expert

The First Six Leverage Points 12. Constants, parameters, numbers (such as subsidies, taxes, standards) 11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows 10. The structure of material stocks and flows (such as transport network, population age structures) 9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes 8. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to correct against 7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops

12. Constants, parameters, numbers

(such as subsidies, taxes, standards)

11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows

10. The structure of material stocks and flows

(such as transport network, population age structures)

9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes

8. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to correct against

7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops

The Last Six Leverage Points 6. The structure of information flow (who does and does not have access to what kinds of information) 5. The rules of the system (such as incentives, punishment, constraints) 4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure 3. The goals of the system 2. The mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises out of 1. The power to transcend paradigms

6. The structure of information flow

(who does and does not have access to what kinds of information)

5. The rules of the system

(such as incentives, punishment, constraints)

4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure

3. The goals of the system

2. The mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises out of

1. The power to transcend paradigms

Starring Captain Kirk and Shantideva Showdown! Your State of Mind vs. The Twelve Leverage Points Panel Presentation versus

Example 1: The Wrong Thing At the Wrong Time Must …get …VC funding!

Example 1: The Wrong Thing At the Wrong Time Twelve Leverage Points 12. Constants, parameters, numbers 11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows 10. The structure of material stocks and flows 9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes 8. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to correct against 7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops 6. The structure of information flow 5. The rules of the system 4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure 3. The goals of the system 2. The mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises out of 1. The power to transcend paradigms Shantideva says: Consider changing your goal…

Twelve Leverage Points

12. Constants, parameters, numbers

11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows

10. The structure of material stocks and flows

9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes

8. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to correct against

7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops

6. The structure of information flow

5. The rules of the system

4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure

3. The goals of the system

2. The mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises out of

1. The power to transcend paradigms

Example 1: The Wrong Thing At the Wrong Time External …funding …is …the only way!

Example 1: The Wrong Thing At the Wrong Time Twelve Leverage Points 12. Constants, parameters, numbers 11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows 10. The structure of material stocks and flows 9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes 8. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to correct against 7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops 6. The structure of information flow 5. The rules of the system 4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure 3. The goals of the system 2. The mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises out of 1. The power to transcend paradigms Shantideva says: Consider changing your mindset…

Twelve Leverage Points

12. Constants, parameters, numbers

11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows

10. The structure of material stocks and flows

9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes

8. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to correct against

7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops

6. The structure of information flow

5. The rules of the system

4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure

3. The goals of the system

2. The mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises out of

1. The power to transcend paradigms

Example 1: The Wrong Thing At the Wrong Time Can’t …do anything …without …VC funding!

Example 1: The Wrong Thing At the Wrong Time Twelve Leverage Points 12. Constants, parameters, numbers 11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows 10. The structure of material stocks and flows 9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes 8. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to correct against 7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops 6. The structure of information flow 5. The rules of the system 4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure 3. The goals of the system 2. The mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises out of 1. The power to transcend paradigms Shantideva says: Consider changing your paradigm…

Twelve Leverage Points

12. Constants, parameters, numbers

11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows

10. The structure of material stocks and flows

9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes

8. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to correct against

7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops

6. The structure of information flow

5. The rules of the system

4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure

3. The goals of the system

2. The mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises out of

1. The power to transcend paradigms

Example 2: A Moai Making Machine Must …build …more statues!

Example 2: A Moai Making Machine Twelve Leverage Points 12. Constants, parameters, numbers 11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows 10. The structure of material stocks and flows 9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes 8. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to correct against 7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops 6. The structure of information flow 5. The rules of the system 4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure 3. The goals of the system 2. The mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises out of 1. The power to transcend paradigms Shantideva says: Consider changing your goals…

Twelve Leverage Points

12. Constants, parameters, numbers

11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows

10. The structure of material stocks and flows

9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes

8. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to correct against

7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops

6. The structure of information flow

5. The rules of the system

4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure

3. The goals of the system

2. The mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises out of

1. The power to transcend paradigms

Example 2: A Moai Making Machine Statues …are …part of …our culture!

Example 2: A Moai Making Machine Twelve Leverage Points 12. Constants, parameters, numbers 11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows 10. The structure of material stocks and flows 9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes 8. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to correct against 7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops 6. The structure of information flow 5. The rules of the system 4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure 3. The goals of the system 2. The mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises out of 1. The power to transcend paradigms Shantideva says: Consider changing your mindset…

Twelve Leverage Points

12. Constants, parameters, numbers

11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows

10. The structure of material stocks and flows

9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes

8. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to correct against

7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops

6. The structure of information flow

5. The rules of the system

4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure

3. The goals of the system

2. The mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises out of

1. The power to transcend paradigms

Example 2: A Moai Making Machine Can’t …function …without statues!

Example 2: A Moai Making Machine Twelve Leverage Points 12. Constants, parameters, numbers 11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows 10. The structure of material stocks and flows 9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes 8. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to correct against 7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops 6. The structure of information flow 5. The rules of the system 4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure 3. The goals of the system 2. The mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises out of 1. The power to transcend paradigms Shantideva says: Consider changing your paradigm…

Twelve Leverage Points

12. Constants, parameters, numbers

11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows

10. The structure of material stocks and flows

9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes

8. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to correct against

7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops

6. The structure of information flow

5. The rules of the system

4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure

3. The goals of the system

2. The mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises out of

1. The power to transcend paradigms

How To Change? Applying The Leverage Points “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

A Recipe For Success When failure is imminent: Look for leverage points Choose the most effective Push, pull, or change it Begin good times!

When failure is imminent:

Look for leverage points

Choose the most effective

Push, pull, or change it

Begin good times!

finding a leverage point and (ex) changing self-definition does not guarantee rescue Remember…

finding a leverage point

and

(ex) changing self-definition

does not

guarantee rescue

A Tale of Of Rescue Coda “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

Cyclone Zoe Devastates Tikopia in 2002 “ Cyclone Zoe hit remote Pacific islands Tikopia and Anuta (part of Solomon Islands) last weekend with winds estimated to have reached 350 kilometres per hour (220 mph).”

Rescue Arrives!

References & Citations Can climate shape cultural development? A view through time http://coombs.anu.edu.au/Depts/RSPAS/RMAP/haberle.htm Twelve leverage points http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Places_to_intervene_in_a_system Easter Island's End http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/24/042.html Easter Island http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter_Island Places to Intervene in a System http://www.wholeearthmag.com/ArticleBin/109.html In Pictures: Cyclone Zoe http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/2624193.stm Help Save A Civilization http://home.netcom.com/~yellowrose/tikopia/id13.html

Can climate shape cultural development? A view through time

http://coombs.anu.edu.au/Depts/RSPAS/RMAP/haberle.htm

Twelve leverage points

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Places_to_intervene_in_a_system

Easter Island's End

http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/24/042.html

Easter Island

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter_Island

Places to Intervene in a System

http://www.wholeearthmag.com/ArticleBin/109.html

In Pictures: Cyclone Zoe

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/2624193.stm

Help Save A Civilization

http://home.netcom.com/~yellowrose/tikopia/id13.html

Contact Points Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/moJoe/it-seemed-like-the-thing-to-do-at-time-state-of-mind-and-failure Email: [email_address] Web: http://www.joelamantia.com AIM: joelamant1a MSN: joelamantia_@hotmail.com

Contact Points

Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/moJoe/it-seemed-like-the-thing-to-do-at-time-state-of-mind-and-failure

Email: [email_address]

Web: http://www.joelamantia.com

AIM: joelamant1a

MSN: joelamantia_@hotmail.com

Further Reading By Donella Meadows Donella H. Meadows, Jorgen Randers and Dennis L. Meadows Limits to Growth-The 30 year Update , 2004, hardcover ISBN 1-931498-51-2 Dennis L. Meadows, Donella M. Meadows, Donella H. Meadows and Tzonis' Toward Global Equilibrium: Collected Papers , Pegasus Communications, 1973, hardcover ISBN 0-262-13143-9 Donella H. Meadows and J. M. Robinson, The Electronic Oracle: Computer Models and Social Decisions , John Wiley & Sons , 1985, hardcover, 462 pages, ISBN 0-471-90558-5 ･ Donella H. Meadows, Global Citizen , Island Press , 1991, paperback 197 pages, ISBN 1-55963-058-2 Donella H. Meadows, Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind , New American Library, 1977, paperback, ISBN 0-451-13695-0 ; Universe Books, hardcover, 1972, ISBN 0-87663-222-3 (scarce). Donella H. Meadows, Beyond the limits ﾊ : global collapse or a sustainable future , Earthscan Publications , 1992, ISBN 1-85383-130-1 Dennis L. Meadows, Donella H. Meadows and Jorgen Randers, Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future , Chelsea Green Publishing , 1993, paperback, 320 pages, ISBN 0-930031-62-8 Donella H. Meadows, John Richardson and Gerhart Bruckmann, Groping in the Dark: The First Decade of Global Modelling , John Wiley & Sons , 1982, paperback, ISBN 0-471-10027-7 edited by Sandi Brockway, foreword by Marilyn Ferguson, introduction by Denis Hayes, preface by Donella H. Meadows, Macrocosm U. S. A.: Possibilities for a New Progressive Era... , Macrocosm , 1993, paperback, 464 pages, ISBN 0-9632315-5-3 Michael J. Caduto, foreword by Donella H. Meadows, illustrated by Joan Thomson, Pond and Brook: A Guide to Nature in Freshwater Environments , University Press of New England , 1990, paperback, 288 pages, ISBN 0-87451-509-2

Donella H. Meadows, Jorgen Randers and Dennis L. Meadows Limits to Growth-The 30 year Update , 2004, hardcover ISBN 1-931498-51-2

Dennis L. Meadows, Donella M. Meadows, Donella H. Meadows and Tzonis' Toward Global Equilibrium: Collected Papers , Pegasus Communications, 1973, hardcover ISBN 0-262-13143-9

Donella H. Meadows and J. M. Robinson, The Electronic Oracle: Computer Models and Social Decisions , John Wiley & Sons , 1985, hardcover, 462 pages, ISBN 0-471-90558-5 ･ Donella H. Meadows, Global Citizen , Island Press , 1991, paperback 197 pages, ISBN 1-55963-058-2

Donella H. Meadows, Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind , New American Library, 1977, paperback, ISBN 0-451-13695-0 ; Universe Books, hardcover, 1972, ISBN 0-87663-222-3 (scarce).

Donella H. Meadows, Beyond the limits ﾊ : global collapse or a sustainable future , Earthscan Publications , 1992, ISBN 1-85383-130-1

Dennis L. Meadows, Donella H. Meadows and Jorgen Randers, Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future , Chelsea Green Publishing , 1993, paperback, 320 pages, ISBN 0-930031-62-8

Donella H. Meadows, John Richardson and Gerhart Bruckmann, Groping in the Dark: The First Decade of Global Modelling , John Wiley & Sons , 1982, paperback, ISBN 0-471-10027-7

edited by Sandi Brockway, foreword by Marilyn Ferguson, introduction by Denis Hayes, preface by Donella H. Meadows, Macrocosm U. S. A.: Possibilities for a New Progressive Era... , Macrocosm , 1993, paperback, 464 pages, ISBN 0-9632315-5-3

Michael J. Caduto, foreword by Donella H. Meadows, illustrated by Joan Thomson, Pond and Brook: A Guide to Nature in Freshwater Environments , University Press of New England , 1990, paperback, 288 pages, ISBN 0-87451-509-2