It Seemed Like The Thing To Do At Time: State of Mind and Failure

State Of Mind And Failure
“ It Seemed Like The Thing To Do At The Time” “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

“Stay the course”

Help Me, Obi Wan…
When failing, we often seek rescue.
We look to others.
From outside…

Shantideva
“ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: ex change of self and other.”
Shantideva
Shantideva
8th century Buddhist philosopher
Author of Bodhicaryavatara “Entering the Path of Enlightenment”
“… long poem describing the process of enlightenment from the first thought to full buddhahood ”

The Wrong Thing, At the Wrong Time My Tale “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

A Great Idea!
Winter 1999 - March 2000:
Decide to become venture-back entrepreneur
Assemble founding team: 2 in US, 1 in China
Refine initial idea
Field research and business development in China
Draft business plan
>> Dot com crash…
“ ChinaVertex will be a Pacific Rim trade nexus that links suppliers in China with buyers around the world in a secure, neutral, real-time trading environment which converts surplus consumer goods into sale-ready, profitable commodities.”

Comprehensive Execution…
Spring 2000 – Spring 2001
Receive & reject first international funding offer (high-risk)
Refine plan: strategy, financials, technology, operations, marketing, etc.
Grow team from 3 to 7 people
Identify advisors in US and China
Active business development in China, US
>> We were already failing, but didn’t realize it!

A Great Plan

Impressive Prose
“ A fully-dimensioned B2B trading space is defined by three orthogonal axes: material or goods, information, and capital. Traditional B2B exchange ventures occupy positions in the trading space that intersect with only two of these axes, information and capital, making them effectively two-dimensional entities. Though the B2B exchange model does increase the value of the capital and information flows which it manages in a limited fashion, it in fact restricts the opportunities for buying and supplying parties to maximize the value of the axial constituents they are primarily interested in, by confining the interconnection and exposure of transactions to only two dimensions. More importantly, a two-dimensional model can only be successful when other entities external to the trading space proper can supply would-be exchange customers with services that address their business needs along the third, material axis. Typically, these needs revolve around confirming, maintaining, or even increasing the material value of traded goods to their buyers. China is such a trading space, where unique conditions mandating that solution-providers exhibit immanence on all three axes prevail. While several B2B ventures address the China trading space on the two common axes of information and capital flow, none adequately acknowledges the importance of the third (material) aspect to their business model or strategy. At best, they provide poorly integrated, second-degree access points to goods verification and logistics services, through loosely structured partnerships and referral arrangements.”

Detailed Financials

Going All In
March - August 2001
>> Decide to pursue venture full-time
Hire CEO
Team grows to 10 people
Prospect & reject first US funding offer (insufficient)
Prospect & rejected 2 nd US funding offer (untrustworthy)
Continued Business development in China
Prospect 3 rd funding offer (legitimate)

Chasing A Moving Target

The End
September 2001
>> Resume working full-time
>> September 11 attacks shut down capital markets
>> Disband venture

A Moment of Contemplation Conan; on the Tree of Woe

A Series of Classic Blunders
Complex concept
Difficult funding climate
Hiring the wrong CEO
Refusing 1st funding offer
Growing team too quickly
Unrealistic financial projections
Underestimated operational challenges
>> Didn’t get involved on the ground in Asia (soon enough)

Our True Mistake(s)
We defined ourselves as venture funded.
We never changed our self definition.
“ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva

No, really, it *is* falling! When The Sky Is Falling “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

Societal Failure As A Learning Opportunity
Stakes of societal failure are *high*
A society / culture is at risk, or has failed
Affects are comprehensive
Involves *everyone*
Affects *everything*
Societies have resources to help avoid failure
Specialized knowledge
Sophisticated structures for decision making and control
Humans adaptable species >> resilience
Connections to other societies >> potential rescue

Societal Failure As A Learning Opportunity
Failure on the level of a whole society shows:
High intensity
Broad scope
Why did they fail?
Why didn’t they succeed?
Can this shed light on my failed venture?
Is there is a broader lesson or insight?

A Machine For Making Statues
Easter Island “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

No Man Is An Island
Easter Island is the most remote inhabited area on the planet

A Moai Making Machine
300 ahu (platform and burial sites)
300 tons of stone in a small ahu
10,000 tons of stone in largest
400 moai on platforms around the island
Average moai 13’ tall, weighs 10 tons
Larger moai up to 32’ tall and 75 tons
400 moai partly completed in quarries
Up to 75’ tall, weighing 270 tons

The Product…

A Recipe For Failure

Collapse
"The overall picture for Easter is the most extreme example of forest destruction in the Pacific, and among the most extreme in the world: the whole forest gone , and all of its tree species extinct .”
Diamond, Jared . Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed . Penguin Books: 2005. ISBN 0-14-303655-6 .

Collapse
“ In the 19th century, disease due to contacts with Europeans, as well as deportation of 2,000 Rapanui to work as slaves in Peru, and the forced departure of the remaining Rapanui to Chile, carried the population of Easter Island to the all time low of 111 inhabitants in 1877 .”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter_Island

Easter Island Today
Easter Island is almost totally deforested
http://maps. google .com/maps? f=q &hl=en& q=Easter +Island&layer=& ie=UTF8 & z=13 & t=k & om=1 & iwloc=addr

A Forest of Moai http://www.tagzania.com/item/35784 http://maps.google.com/maps?q=-27.1257820129,-109.276832581(Easter%20Island%20Statues,%20Chile)&z=14&t=h

A Tikopial Paradise
Tikopia “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

Tikopia

Tikopia [http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&ll=-12.296397,168.831367&spn=0.185166,0.248222&t=k&om=1&mid=117457773]7

Changing Models of Sustenance
Colonist
900 B.C - ~100 B.C.
Slash and burn farming
Mining shell fish
Harvesting bird colonies
>> Not sustainable
Shellfish populations crash
Land birds extinct
Sea bird colonies reduced
Forest cover destroyed
Traditional Farmer
~100 B.C - 1600 A.D
Forest orchard cultivation
Intensive pig farming
>> Not sustainable
Cannot support population growth
Livestock destroy gardens and orchards
Permaculture
1600 A.D. - Present
Managed permaculture
Managed use of sea turtles, fish, shell fish
>> Sustainable
No large land animals
Tightly managed stable population
Introduced plants recreate forest canopy as garden
Deliberate change to permaculture

A Comparison
Tikopia
Settled earlier (~100 B.C.E.)
Smaller (2 sq. miles)
No native large land animals
Fewer natural resources
Higher population density
Closer to other settlements
Easter Island
Settled later (~900 A.D.)
Larger (69 sq. miles)
No native large land animals
More natural resources
Lower population density
Remote: closest settlement 1400 miles

Tikopian Flexibility
2 impending societal failures
2 dramatic shifts in sustenance model
2 changes in self-definition
2 failures averted
Potentially high level of resilience…

Tikopia Today

A Review of the Examples Presented Is Shantideva Right? “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

Beginning Proposition
“Just as states of mind, cultural outlooks, and unspoken framing assumptions make substantial contributions to failure on smaller scales - such as small teams, or for a single design project - large organizations and even whole societies find themselves failing because of the ways they think about situations and themselves.”

Our Examples
My team refused to change self-definition, and failed.
Tikopians avoided failure by changing their self-definition.
Easter Islanders refused to change, and failed.
Possible Conclusions:
Changing one’s self-definition can (sometimes) avoid failure
Ability to change self-definition increases potential for averting failure
Ability to change self-definition increases resilience
>> Shantideva may be onto something

Implications for designers
You may be part of the problem
Self definition limits your ability to define situations and problems
Boundaries limit ability to change things
Your client may be the problem
Self-definition may make failure inevitable
Unless you can change the client’s view, failure may be inevitable

What To Change? Looking For Leverage “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

The Problem of Self
Self-definition is very broad
Retrospectives look backward…
… Life moves forward!
Who has time for contemplation?
Often no trees are handy…
Especially if your society is collapsing!
How do groups discuss self-definition?
Let alone a whole society
*This painting = anatomically correct…
Self Portrait with Felt Hat painted by Vincent van Gogh, 1888. Oil on canvas. 44x37.5cm. The painting is in the collection Van Gogh Museum , Amsterdam

Potential Leverage Points
All kinds of things can be described as complex systems:
Societies
Ecologies
Corporations
Startup teams
Design projects
Smart people have found leverage points for complex systems
“ These are places within a complex system …where a small shift in one thing can produce big changes in everything. ”
Leverage points are specific, identifiable, actionable (sometimes…)
>> Successful push on a leverage point might avert failure!

The Twelve Leverage Points
Set of defined leverage points for intervening in complex systems
First published by Donella Meadows in Whole Earth Catalog of 1997
Donella Meadows:
Ph.D. Biophysics (Harvard University)
Founder of the Sustainability Institute
Professor at Dartmouth College
Pew Scholar in Conservation and Environment
MacArthur Fellow
Initiator of discussion on global growth limits and sustainability
Nominated for the Pulitzer Prize in 1991
>> Donella Meadows = systems dynamics and environment / ecology expert

The First Six Leverage Points
12. Constants, parameters, numbers
(such as subsidies, taxes, standards)
11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows
10. The structure of material stocks and flows
(such as transport network, population age structures)
9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes
8. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to correct against
7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops

The Last Six Leverage Points
6. The structure of information flow
(who does and does not have access to what kinds of information)
5. The rules of the system
(such as incentives, punishment, constraints)
4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure
3. The goals of the system
2. The mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises out of
1. The power to transcend paradigms

Starring Captain Kirk and Shantideva Showdown! Your State of Mind vs. The Twelve Leverage Points Panel Presentation versus

Example 1: The Wrong Thing At the Wrong Time Must …get …VC funding!

Example 1: The Wrong Thing At the Wrong Time
Twelve Leverage Points
Shantideva says: Consider changing your goal…

Example 1: The Wrong Thing At the Wrong Time External …funding …is …the only way!

Shantideva says: Consider changing your mindset…

Example 1: The Wrong Thing At the Wrong Time Can’t …do anything …without …VC funding!

Shantideva says: Consider changing your paradigm…

Example 2: A Moai Making Machine Must …build …more statues!

Example 2: A Moai Making Machine
Shantideva says: Consider changing your goals…

Example 2: A Moai Making Machine Statues …are …part of …our culture!

Shantideva says: Consider changing your mindset…

Example 2: A Moai Making Machine Can’t …function …without statues!

Shantideva says: Consider changing your paradigm…

How To Change? Applying The Leverage Points “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

A Recipe For Success
When failure is imminent:
Look for leverage points
Choose the most effective
Push, pull, or change it
Begin good times!

finding a leverage point
and
(ex) changing self-definition
does not
guarantee rescue
Remember…

A Tale of Of Rescue Coda “ Whoever longs to rescue quickly both himself and others should practice the supreme mystery: exchange of self and other.” Shantideva Panel Presentation

Cyclone Zoe Devastates Tikopia in 2002 “ Cyclone Zoe hit remote Pacific islands Tikopia and Anuta (part of Solomon Islands) last weekend with winds estimated to have reached 350 kilometres per hour (220 mph).”

Rescue Arrives!

References & Citations
Can climate shape cultural development? A view through time
http://coombs.anu.edu.au/Depts/RSPAS/RMAP/haberle.htm
Twelve leverage points
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Places_to_intervene_in_a_system
Easter Island's End
http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/24/042.html
Easter Island
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter_Island
Places to Intervene in a System
http://www.wholeearthmag.com/ArticleBin/109.html
In Pictures: Cyclone Zoe
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/2624193.stm
Help Save A Civilization
http://home.netcom.com/~yellowrose/tikopia/id13.html

Contact Points
Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/moJoe/it-seemed-like-the-thing-to-do-at-time-state-of-mind-and-failure
Email: [email_address]
Web: http://www.joelamantia.com
AIM: joelamant1a
MSN: joelamantia_@hotmail.com

Further Reading By Donella Meadows
Donella H. Meadows, Jorgen Randers and Dennis L. Meadows Limits to Growth-The 30 year Update , 2004, hardcover ISBN 1-931498-51-2
Dennis L. Meadows, Donella M. Meadows, Donella H. Meadows and Tzonis' Toward Global Equilibrium: Collected Papers , Pegasus Communications, 1973, hardcover ISBN 0-262-13143-9
Donella H. Meadows and J. M. Robinson, The Electronic Oracle: Computer Models and Social Decisions , John Wiley & Sons , 1985, hardcover, 462 pages, ISBN 0-471-90558-5 ･ Donella H. Meadows, Global Citizen , Island Press , 1991, paperback 197 pages, ISBN 1-55963-058-2
Donella H. Meadows, Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind , New American Library, 1977, paperback, ISBN 0-451-13695-0 ; Universe Books, hardcover, 1972, ISBN 0-87663-222-3 (scarce).
Donella H. Meadows, Beyond the limits ﾊ : global collapse or a sustainable future , Earthscan Publications , 1992, ISBN 1-85383-130-1
Dennis L. Meadows, Donella H. Meadows and Jorgen Randers, Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future , Chelsea Green Publishing , 1993, paperback, 320 pages, ISBN 0-930031-62-8
Donella H. Meadows, John Richardson and Gerhart Bruckmann, Groping in the Dark: The First Decade of Global Modelling , John Wiley & Sons , 1982, paperback, ISBN 0-471-10027-7
edited by Sandi Brockway, foreword by Marilyn Ferguson, introduction by Denis Hayes, preface by Donella H. Meadows, Macrocosm U. S. A.: Possibilities for a New Progressive Era... , Macrocosm , 1993, paperback, 464 pages, ISBN 0-9632315-5-3
Michael J. Caduto, foreword by Donella H. Meadows, illustrated by Joan Thomson, Pond and Brook: A Guide to Nature in Freshwater Environments , University Press of New England , 1990, paperback, 288 pages, ISBN 0-87451-509-2

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It Seemed Like The Thing To Do At Time: State of Mind and Failure

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