Backcasting “ or how I learned to stop predicting and help my clients “ IA Summit 2007 Las Vegas Matthew Milan Critical Mass Sam Ladner York University

On Turbulent Environments Backcasting Background Backcasting as Information Architecture Is That a Discovery Process in Your Pocket? Session Overview

On Turbulent Environments

Backcasting Background

Backcasting as Information Architecture

Is That a Discovery Process in Your Pocket?

Turbulent Environments “ Take me to the river… “

Turbulent Environments

Strategy is Turbulent How do you navigate a turbulent environment?

Every River Needs a Guide You are your client’s guide

Backcasting is a Navigational Tool It helps you to create plans for changing environments

There’s more then one path But you don’t always know the right path beforehand

Scouting Ahead Not “ how DO we get here ”, but “ how DID we get here ”

Backcasting Background “ A recipe for people who hate to predict “

1950s ► ProtoBackcasting ► AT&T 1970s ► MultiScenario Planning ► Shell 1990s ► Big Backcasting ► Robinson & SDRI 2000s ► Agile Backcasting? Casting Back

1950s ► ProtoBackcasting ► AT&T

1970s ► MultiScenario Planning ► Shell

1990s ► Big Backcasting ► Robinson & SDRI

2000s ► Agile Backcasting?

Complex Undertaking Resource Intensive Time Consuming Inaccessible to Non-Experts Problems with Big Backcasting

Complex Undertaking

Resource Intensive

Time Consuming

Inaccessible to Non-Experts

Why do backcasting? Good strategy lets you see the entire landscape

Simplify the Process Lightweight Quick and Agile Accessible & Engaging Better Backcasting? ► Participatory Modeling ► Sorting & Grouping ► 3 to 6 hours ► Facilitation Framework

Simplify the Process

Lightweight

Quick and Agile

Accessible & Engaging

Backcasting as Information Architecture “ The Strategic Design of Shared Information Environments “

Information Architecture as visual organization and modeling Information Architecture as a thinking framework Information Architecture as structuring information environments through time Where’s the IA?

Information Architecture as visual organization and modeling

Information Architecture as a thinking framework

Information Architecture as structuring information environments through time

The Elements of Backcasting Set timeline Baseline current state Define future states Identify indicators Assess risks and create action plan

Set timeline

Baseline current state

Define future states

Identify indicators

Assess risks and create action plan

The Backcasting Map Backcasting in five easy steps Set the timeframe t now t future

Backcasting in five easy steps

Set the timeframe

The Backcasting Map Baseline the current state

Baseline the current state

The Backcasting Map Define Possible Future States Hot Rod Minivan Little Deuce Coupe

Define Possible Future States

The Backcasting Map Work Backwards and Identify Indicators Hot Rod Minivan Little Deuce Coupe

Work Backwards and Identify Indicators

The Backcasting Map Assess Risks, Opportunities and Actions Hot Rod Minivan Little Deuce Coupe

Assess Risks, Opportunities and Actions

A Discovery Process in Your Pocket “ Stop Predicting and Start Helping “

What do you need? Visual Language – The “Map” Facilitation Skills The Ability to Translate Concepts Into Indicators

Visual Language – The “Map”

Facilitation Skills

The Ability to Translate Concepts Into Indicators

What makes a good guide? Don’t tell you what to do Keep you safe Intentionally simplify complex situations Leave the choices to the journeyer

Don’t tell you what to do

Keep you safe

Intentionally simplify complex situations

Leave the choices to the journeyer

Case Study: OmniBank Fortune 500 Financial Services Firm Multi-Stage Redesign Multiple Stakeholders No Clear Strategy Client Desire to Learn Adaptability

Fortune 500 Financial Services Firm

Multi-Stage Redesign

Multiple Stakeholders

No Clear Strategy

Client Desire to Learn Adaptability

Mapping OmniBank Strategy Focus on the map, not political agendas

Capture Everything … including insights about your clients

Elicit Problems and Solutions Ask hard questions and you’ll get solutions

Deep Dive on Indicators Robust indicators of success mean robust success

Identify Immediate Actions 30, 60 and 90-day action plans move projects forward

Take Me To The River