Backcasting 101

Slide 1: ASIS&T IA Summit Pre-Conference April 10, 2008 Backcasting 101 Collaborative Strategy Development for Information Architects Matthew Milan ASIS&T 1320 Fenwick Lane, Suite 510 Director of Insight and Planning Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA Critical Mass Phone (301) 495-0900 Fax (301) 495-0810 matthewm@criticalmass.com asis@asis.org 1

Slide 2: Backcasting 101 Workshop Overview o Objectives o History o Method and Madness o Planning and Facilitation o Method Walkthrough o Break o Backcasting Exercise o Break o Exercise Debrief o Reporting and Informing o Selling Backcasting 2

Slide 3: Backcasting 101 Workshop Objectives 1. Expose you to the thinking and theory behind the method, and how it came to be used by information architects. 2. Show you how to plan, facilitate and conduct a backcasting session. 3. Give you walkthrough of the method and then conduct a short backcasting session with you, followed by a debrief 4. Give you some ideas on how to think about documenting and leveraging the results of a backcasting session 5. Give you some thoughts on how to sell the backcasting method to peers and/or clients 3

Slide 4: Backcasting 101 History 4

Slide 5: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: History o Scenario Design as Strategy o Robinson’s Backcasting o Backcasting as Information Architecture 5

Slide 6: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: History o Scenario Design as Strategy o (Scenario Emergence as Strategy) 6

Slide 7: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: History 1950’s Proto-backcastng AT&T 7

Slide 8: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: History 1970’s Multi-Scenario Planning Shell 8

Slide 9: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: History 1990’s Great Whale Project Hydro-Québec 9

Slide 10: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: History o John Robinson University of Waterloo University of British Columbia SDRI IRES GBFP 10

Slide 11: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: History o Futures Under Glass o 1990 “Futures Under Glass – A Recipe for People Who Hate to Predict” o Backwards Looking Analysis o Explicitly Normative and Design Oriented o Not “what future was is likely to occur”, But “how desirable futures might be obtained” 11

Slide 12: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: History o Future Subjunctive o 2003 Future Subjunctive: Backcasting as Social Learning o Subjunctive: “designating a mood, the forms of which are employed to denote an action or a state as conceived (and not as fact) and therefore used to express…a contingent, hypothetical or prospective event” – Oxford English Dictionary o The desired future is not determined in advance of analysis, but is an emergent property of engaging with users and project partners 12

Slide 13: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: History o IA Institute o Supported research in 2005 on the development of strategy tools based on environmental planning techniques. o Cumulative Effects Assessment o Backcasting o http://iainstitute.org/documents/research/results/Environme ntal.Assessment.Tools.pdf 13

Slide 14: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: History o Why Information Architecture? o “The structural design of shared information environments” o Increasingly, IA’s are getting a seat at the strategy table o The “Incomplete Toolkit” 14

Slide 15: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: History o The Strategic Design of Shared Information Environments… o Information Architecture as visual organization and modeling o Information Architecture as a thinking framework o Information Architecture as structuring information environments through time 15

Slide 16: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: History o The challenges with “Big” Backcasting o Complex, model based and driven by quantitative analysis o Best suited to skilled practitioners with experience in the method. o Focus on the “method”, not the “method of the method” o No simple framework for building a conceptual model of the problem space o Resource intensive and time consuming 16

Slide 17: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: History o Simplifying the Method o What we’ve done: o Taken a complex quantitative method and made it simple and qualitative o Wrapped into a workshop format that can be done in a day o Tied it to a basic framework for identifying measurement indicators o Developed a visual thinking framework to capture stakeholder outputs o Baked in an established facilitation framework to drive consensus 17

Slide 18: Backcasting 101 Method and Madness 18

Slide 19: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Method Turbulent Environments 19

Slide 20: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Methods and Theory Turbulent Environments 20

Slide 21: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Methods and Theory Turbulent Environments 21

Slide 22: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Methods and Theory Strategy is Turbulent 22

Slide 23: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Methods and Theory Stability :: Complexity :: Chaos 23

Slide 24: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Methods and Theory Wicked Problems o The problem is not understood until after formulation of a solution. o Stakeholders have radically different world views and different frames for understanding the problem. o Constraints and resources to solve the problem change over time. o The problem is never solved 24

Slide 25: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Methods and Theory Backcasting is a Navigational Tool 25

Slide 26: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Methods and Theory With Backcasting, YOU are the guide 26

Slide 27: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Methods and Theory There IS more then one path 27

Slide 28: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Methods and Theory Scouting Ahead 28

Slide 29: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Methods and Theory  Set the timeframe tnow tfuture 29

Slide 30: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Methods and Theory  Baseline the current state 30

Slide 31: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Methods and Theory  Define Possible Future States Future 1 Future 2 Future 3 31

Slide 32: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Methods and Theory  Work Backwards and Identify Actions and  Indicators Future 1 Future 2 Future 3 32

Slide 33: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Methods and Theory  Assess Risks and  Opportunities Future 1 Future 2 Future 3 33

Slide 34: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Methods and Theory Q: So great, this is (just) a bunch of post-it notes on the wall… A: Yes, in the same way that a site architecture is (just) a bunch of boxes and arrows… o Don’t let the participants focus just on the visual thinking and miss the value of the process. There is value in both, but the map’s role is to bring the process to the forefront, not to serve as the sole output of your workshop. The value is in the shared understanding of the problem space and the possible outcomes. 34

Slide 35: Backcasting 101 Planning and Facilitation 35

Slide 36: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Planning Overview o 4 Core Components: 5. Location 6. Materials 7. Attendees 8. Facilitation 36

Slide 37: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Planning – Location 37

Slide 38: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Planning – Materials o You’ll need at a minimum: o A wall that is 12’ long o 300 8”x6” post-it notes in at least four colors o 200 5”x3” post-it notes in at least four colors o A full roll of masking tape o A dozen sharpies o Nice to have: o Flipcharts, Whiteboard, Kraft Paper 38

Slide 39: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Planning – Stakeholders and Attendees o No set size or standard makeup for your group, but: o Small groups may not include the range of inputs you need o Large groups may be difficult to control o Be inclusive rather then exclusive, but don’t be exhaustive o Invite thinkers in addition to owners 39

Slide 40: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Planning – Setup o Arrive early o Prep the room o Check the facilitation guides o No laptops, no devices, no phones o No participants over the phone o If possible, plan for a speedy takedown o Bring a camera; audio is nice but optional 40

Slide 41: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Planning – Session Cadence o Dependent of the following factors: o Session length o Number of attendees o Number of possible end states you are exploring o Attendee comfort level with structured brainstorming o Organizational and political alignment of the participants 41

Slide 42: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Facilitation – Overview o The “method of the method” o Backcasting sessions became more productive as more capable facilitation techniques were applied o Started with “we’re doing facilitation” and moved to a formal facilitation method. o The choice of how you facilitate the backcasting session is up to you; consider the needs of the participants. 42

Slide 43: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Facilitation – Backcasting as Focused Conversations o We currently use a formal facilitation method called the “Focused Conversation Method”, developed by an organization called ICA that specializes in facilitation services and training. o We’ll use this method today to help support the backcasting exercise. We’ll conduct a number of focused conversations throughout the exercise to help the group gain consensus as part of each step. 43

Slide 44: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Facilitation – The ORID Framework o The backbone of the Focused Conversation Method is the ORID framework. o O - Objective o R - Reflective o I - Interpretive o D - Decisional o As you conduct a conversation, you ask questions that move the participants through the ORID framework as a group. 44

Slide 45: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Facilitation – More on ORID o There are two primary ways to use ORID to support a group decision-making process 5. Use the components of ORID in iterative sequences to advance the group through the consensus building process 6. Use the components of ORID to listen to where individuals are stuck in the process and ask them questions that help them to become unstuck 45

Slide 46: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Facilitation – Driving a Workshop with Focused Conversation o Your workshop should have both a rational aim, and an experiential aim o You open each conversation with context, and close with confirmation of a resolution o ORID is use to drive a conversational process of ideation, relationship formation and consensus building o You’ll want to prepare a clear focus question at the start of the exercise and structure it so that the resolution of the question at the end of the exercise supports the rational and experiential aims of your exercise. 46

Slide 47: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Facilitation – The Structure of a Focused Conversation Opening Rational Aim Experiential Aim Closing • Topic What the group will KNOW, learn or decide How the group will be different at the end •Comments • Parameters of by the end of the conversation of the conversation •Reflections Conversation •Participation Guidelines •Time •Concrete Objective Reflective Interpretive Decisional beginning point •Getting the facts •Personal •Meaning, •Resolution •Focusing reactions, values, •Questions allow attention on associations, significance, people to name, objective emotions, images purpose, and/or identify information and •Questions bring implications. their facts about the out people’s • Questions relationship & topic immediate highlight layers responses to the •Asking for reactions and of purpose and situation or topic information and internal meaning •Brings the sensory associations with •What is the group to impressions the facts significance resolution people attach to the subject. 47

Slide 48: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Facilitation – Objective o Focus of the questions: Data, the facts about the topic and external realities o The goal is to have the group deal with the same body of data o Questions should be in relation to the senses; tangible o Avoid asking closed questions or unspecific questions 48

Slide 49: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Facilitation – Reflective o Focus of the questions: internal and/or personal relationships to the data o The goal is to reveal initial reactions to the information and validate the knowledge and experience of the participants o Questions should be in relation to moods, emotional tones, memories or associations o Avoid turning the discussion into a survey of likes/dislikes 49

Slide 50: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Facilitation – Interpretive o Focus of the questions: the meaning of the topic o The goal is to draw out significance from the objective and reflective data/inputs o Questions should be in relation to layers of meaning, purpose, significance and implications; consideration of alternatives and options o Avoid inserting “pre-cooked” meaning, intellectualizing or abstracting 50

Slide 51: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Facilitation – Decisional o Focus of the questions: direct accomplishment of the rational aim along with resolution and new directions o The goal is to make the conversation relevant for the future and complete the current conversation o Questions are in relation to consensus, implementation and action o Avoid forcing a decision if the group is not ready or alternately, not pushing the group when a decision is needed. 51

Slide 52: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Focused Conversations for Backcasting # 1 o Time frame o O – What time frame is relevant to explore? o R – What aspects of this time frame are you comfortable with? o R – What aspects of this timeframe are you not comfortable with? o I – Why is this time frame important to explore o I – What are the implications of exploring this time frame? o D – What are we collectively suggesting should be the time frame? o D – What is our consensus on the time frame to use for this exercise? 52

Slide 53: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Focused Conversations for Backcasting # 2 o Current State o O – What elements are central to describing the current state? o 0 – Who are the key players in the current state? o O – What is most striking about the current state? o R – What do you think is positive about the current state? o R – What do you think is negative about the current state? o I – What is significant about the current state? o I – What insights do we have about the current state? o D – Can we agree on a definition of the current state? 53

Slide 54: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Focused Conversations for Backcasting # 3 o Future States o O – What elements are central to describing desired future states? o 0 – Who are the key players in the future state? o O – What is most intriguing about these future states? o R – What do you think is concerning about these future states? o I – What is significant about these future states? o I – What insights do we have about the future state? o D – Can we agree on our definitions of the future state? 54

Slide 55: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Focused Conversations for Backcasting # 4 o Actions and Indicators o O – What would be required to “get from there to here”? o 0 – What indicators would you use to measure these actions? o O – What is the relationship between an action and indicator? o R – Why are these the actions that make sense? o R – What do you think is these indicators should tell us? o I – Do these actions push us in one direction or another? o I – Do these indicators have the ability to show directionality? o D – Can we agree on these actions, these indicators? 55

Slide 56: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation o Focused Conversations for Backcasting # 5 o Risks and Opportunities o O – What specific opportunities do you see? o 0 – What specific risks do you see? o O – What are the relationships between opportunities and risks? o R – Why are these opportunities compelling or interesting? o R – What is concerning or threatening about these risks? o I – Do we feel we need additional actions and indicators? o I – Is there overarching significance in the opportunities/risks ? o D – Can we agree that these opportunities and risks are work exploring further? 56

Slide 57: Backcasting 101 Case Study 57

Slide 58: Backcasting 101 Method Walkthrough 58

Slide 59: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Method Walkthrough o Step 1: Determine the Timeline o Step 2: Describe the Current State o Step 3: Draw out the Future States o Step 4: Determine Actions and Indicators o Step 5: Assess Risks and Opportunities 59

Slide 60: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Method Walkthrough 60

Slide 61: Backcasting 101 Backcasting Exercise 61

Slide 62: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Exercise o The Problem: o What is the future value of information architecture? o The Aims of the Exercise: o Rational Aim – to ensure that participants have a shared view of what the future value of information architecture ought to be. o Experiential Aim – to ensure that all participants are exposed to the backcasting method and are intrigued by its possibilities for their work. 62

Slide 63: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Exercise o Set Time Frame o O – What time frame is relevant to explore? o R – What aspects of this time frame are you comfortable with? o R – What aspects of this timeframe are you not comfortable with? o I – Why is this time frame important to explore o I – What are the implications of exploring this time frame? o D – What are we collectively suggesting should be the time frame? o D – What is our consensus on the time frame to use for this exercise? 63

Slide 64: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Exercise o Define Current State o O – What elements are central to describing the current state? o 0 – Who are the key players in the current state? o O – What is most striking about the current state? o R – What do you think is positive about the current state? o R – What do you think is negative about the current state? o I – What is significant about the current state? o I – What insights do we have about the current state? o D – Can we agree on a definition of the current state? 64

Slide 65: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Exercise o Define Possible Future States o O – What elements are central to describing desired future states? o 0 – Who are the key players in the future state? o O – What is most intriguing about these future states? o R – What do you think is concerning about these future states? o I – What is significant about these future states? o I – What insights do we have about the future state? o D – Can we agree on our definitions of the future state? 65

Slide 66: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Exercise o Work Backwards; Define Actions and Indicators o O – What would be required to “get from there to here”? o 0 – What indicators would you use to measure these actions? o O – What is the relationship between an action and indicator? o R – Why are these the actions that make sense? o R – What do you think is these indicators should tell us? o I – Do these actions push us in one direction or another? o I – Do these indicators have the ability to show directionality? o D – Can we agree on these actions, these indicators? 66

Slide 67: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Exercise o Assess Opportunities and Risks o O – What specific opportunities do you see? o 0 – What specific risks do you see? o O – What are the relationships between opportunities and risks? o R – Why are these opportunities compelling or interesting? o R – What is concerning or threatening about these risks? o I – Do we feel we need additional actions and indicators? o I – Is there overarching significance in the opportunities/risks ? o D – Can we agree that these opportunities and risks are work exploring further? 67

Slide 68: Backcasting 101 Exercise Debrief 68

Slide 69: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Exercise Debrief o To Start: o What Worked? o What Didn’t? o What Could We Do Differently Next Time? o What Surprised You? o What Gaps Do You Still Have With Your Understanding of the Method? 69

Slide 70: Backcasting 101 Reporting and Informing 70

Slide 71: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Reporting and Informing o Goals of Reporting o Communicating back results of the workshop to the participants: “Here’s what we thought” o Communicating the results of the workshop to stakeholders who did not attend: “Here is what the group agreed on” o Moving the organizational perspective and focus from decisions to solutions: “Here is what you see as the road ahead, and here is how we can help you more forward” o Supporting strategic goal setting by documenting end states and the efforts required to achieve them o Cementing your role as a partner in further strategy and solution work 71

Slide 72: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Reporting and Informing o Types of Outputs: o Reports o Maps o Stories 72

Slide 73: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Reporting and Informing o Using Outputs for Project Planning o Break the opportunities and indicators out of the mix and focus on two perspectives: o “What can we start to work on immediately and what is a downstream initiative?” o “How are we going to measure these activities so that we not only measure success/failure, but also the impact of the activates to the overall strategy map o Bubble 30, 60 and 90 Day “quick wins to the surface” and move forward with those, having a clear understanding of how they feed into downstream initiatives. 73

Slide 74: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Reporting and Informing o Regular Revisits Help! o This should not be the last time you talk about the exercise o Arrange regular regroups with the stakeholders to review progress. o Address current state progress in Quarterly Business Reviews, etc. o Integrate the backcasting findings into strategic planning work; start planning your next workshop. 74

Slide 75: Backcasting 101 Selling Backcasting 75

Slide 76: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Selling o Selling Backcasting – Why and How o Your long-term value and revenue pipeline often is created without your initial involvement o Clients and/or internal groups may not be ready to involve you in strategic decision-making, but are more open to involvement in planning support o Most strategic planning happens around poorly formed “brainstorming”/ideation workshops. These are prime opportunities to sell in backcasting. o Sell based on immediate tangible value; 90 day plans and actionable outcomes are more appealing then a discussion about the method itself. 76

Slide 77: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Selling o Selling Backcasting – Showing Value o Most groups will have significant frustration with past planning processes, not due to the method but the lack of activity afterwards. o Talk to the actionable and measureable outcomes of a backcasting session, as well as the development of the strategic landscape. o Teams love workshops, but rarely enjoy planning them. Be the guide, not the guru in order to support the team 77

Slide 78: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Selling o Selling Backcasting: Organizational Considerations o Before proposing the use of backcasting, understand the landscape in which it will be placed o A good workshop opens up opportunities and avoids alignment with specific agendas o Backcasting listens, and does not prescribe; set expectations around its value. It is not a silver bullet. o If it seems like you’re trying to hard to fit it in, you probably are. Wait for the right opportunity, don’t leap for the first one. 78

Slide 79: Backcasting 101 Wrap-up 79

Slide 80: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Wrap-up o A tool not for prediction, but knowing. o Flexible, fast and inclusive o Actionable, but only if you decide to make it so o Builds shared perspective through social learning o Allows you to demonstrate leadership through support as well as ideas 80

Slide 81: Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Wrap-up o The Workshop Objectives Revisited: o Expose you to the thinking and theory behind the method, and how it came to be used by information architects. o Show you how to plan, facilitate and conduct a backcasting session. o Give you walkthrough of the method and then conduct a short backcasting session with you, followed by a debrief o Give you some ideas on how to think about documenting and leveraging the results of a backcasting session o Give you some thoughts on how to sell the backcasting method to peers and/or clients o Do you understand the basics of the method and feel comfortable in starting to explore its use in your work? o Did you enjoy the session and get to participate in a way that was meaningful and enjoyable to you? 81

Slide 82: Thanks matthewm@criticalmass.com mmilan@gmail.com 82