Backcasting 101

Backcasting 101 Collaborative Strategy Development for Information Architects Matthew Milan Director of Insight and Planning Critical Mass [email_address] ASIS&T IA Summit Pre-Conference April 10, 2008 ASIS&T 1320 Fenwick Lane, Suite 510 Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA Phone (301) 495-0900 Fax (301) 495-0810 [email_address]

Backcasting 101
Objectives
History
Method and Madness
Planning and Facilitation
Method Walkthrough
Break
Backcasting Exercise
Break
Exercise Debrief
Reporting and Informing
Selling Backcasting
Workshop Overview

Backcasting 101
Expose you to the thinking and theory behind the method, and how it came to be used by information architects.
Show you how to plan, facilitate and conduct a backcasting session.
Give you walkthrough of the method and then conduct a short backcasting session with you, followed by a debrief
Give you some ideas on how to think about documenting and leveraging the results of a backcasting session
Give you some thoughts on how to sell the backcasting method to peers and/or clients
Workshop Objectives

Backcasting 101 History

Backcasting 101
Scenario Design as Strategy
Robinson’s Backcasting
Backcasting as Information Architecture
Backcasting: History

Backcasting 101
Scenario Design as Strategy
(Scenario Emergence as Strategy)

Backcasting 101
1950’s
Proto-backcastng
AT&T

Backcasting 101
1970’s
Multi-Scenario Planning
Shell

Backcasting 101
1990’s
Great Whale Project
Hydro-Québec

Backcasting 101
John Robinson
University of Waterloo
University of British Columbia
SDRI
IRES
GBFP

Backcasting 101
Futures Under Glass
1990 “Futures Under Glass – A Recipe for People Who Hate to Predict”
Backwards Looking Analysis
Explicitly Normative and Design Oriented
Not “what future was is likely to occur”, But “how desirable futures might be obtained”

Backcasting 101
Future Subjunctive
2003 Future Subjunctive: Backcasting as Social Learning
Subjunctive: “designating a mood, the forms of which are employed to denote an action or a state as conceived (and not as fact) and therefore used to express…a contingent, hypothetical or prospective event” – Oxford English Dictionary
The desired future is not determined in advance of analysis, but is an emergent property of engaging with users and project partners

Backcasting 101
IA Institute
Supported research in 2005 on the development of strategy tools based on environmental planning techniques.
Cumulative Effects Assessment
Backcasting
http://iainstitute.org/documents/research/results/Environmental.Assessment.Tools.pdf

Backcasting 101
Why Information Architecture?
“ The structural design of shared information environments”
Increasingly, IA’s are getting a seat at the strategy table
The “Incomplete Toolkit”

Backcasting 101
The Strategic Design of Shared Information Environments…
Information Architecture as visual organization and modeling
Information Architecture as a thinking framework
Information Architecture as structuring information environments through time

Backcasting 101
The challenges with “Big” Backcasting
Complex, model based and driven by quantitative analysis
Best suited to skilled practitioners with experience in the method.
Focus on the “method”, not the “method of the method”
No simple framework for building a conceptual model of the problem space
Resource intensive and time consuming

Backcasting 101
Simplifying the Method
What we’ve done:
Taken a complex quantitative method and made it simple and qualitative
Wrapped into a workshop format that can be done in a day
Tied it to a basic framework for identifying measurement indicators
Developed a visual thinking framework to capture stakeholder outputs
Baked in an established facilitation framework to drive consensus

Backcasting 101 Method and Madness

Backcasting 101
Turbulent Environments
Backcasting: Method

Backcasting 101
Turbulent Environments
Backcasting: Methods and Theory

Backcasting 101
Strategy is Turbulent

Backcasting 101
Stability :: Complexity :: Chaos

Backcasting 101
Wicked Problems
The problem is not understood until after formulation of a solution.
Stakeholders have radically different world views and different frames for understanding the problem.
Constraints and resources to solve the problem change over time.
The problem is never solved

Backcasting 101
Backcasting is a Navigational Tool

Backcasting 101
With Backcasting, YOU are the guide

Backcasting 101
There IS more then one path

Backcasting 101
Scouting Ahead

Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Methods and Theory
Set the timeframe
t now t future

Baseline the current state

Define Possible Future States
Future 1 Future 2 Future 3

Work Backwards and
Identify Actions and
Indicators

Assess Risks and
Opportunities

Backcasting 101
Q: So great, this is (just) a bunch of post-it notes on the wall…
A: Yes, in the same way that a site architecture is (just) a bunch of boxes and arrows…
Don’t let the participants focus just on the visual thinking and miss the value of the process. There is value in both, but the map’s role is to bring the process to the forefront, not to serve as the sole output of your workshop. The value is in the shared understanding of the problem space and the possible outcomes.

Backcasting 101 Planning and Facilitation

Backcasting 101
Planning Overview
4 Core Components:
Location
Materials
Attendees
Facilitation
Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation

Backcasting 101
Planning – Location

Backcasting 101
Planning – Materials
You’ll need at a minimum:
A wall that is 12’ long
300 8”x6” post-it notes in at least four colors
200 5”x3” post-it notes in at least four colors
A full roll of masking tape
A dozen sharpies
Nice to have:
Flipcharts, Whiteboard, Kraft Paper

Backcasting 101
Planning – Stakeholders and Attendees
No set size or standard makeup for your group, but:
Small groups may not include the range of inputs you need
Large groups may be difficult to control
Be inclusive rather then exclusive, but don’t be exhaustive
Invite thinkers in addition to owners

Backcasting 101
Planning – Setup
Arrive early
Prep the room
Check the facilitation guides
No laptops, no devices, no phones
No participants over the phone
If possible, plan for a speedy takedown
Bring a camera; audio is nice but optional

Backcasting 101
Planning – Session Cadence
Dependent of the following factors:
Session length
Number of attendees
Number of possible end states you are exploring
Attendee comfort level with structured brainstorming
Organizational and political alignment of the participants

Backcasting 101
Facilitation – Overview
The “method of the method”
Backcasting sessions became more productive as more capable facilitation techniques were applied
Started with “we’re doing facilitation” and moved to a formal facilitation method.
The choice of how you facilitate the backcasting session is up to you; consider the needs of the participants.

Backcasting 101
Facilitation – Backcasting as Focused Conversations
We currently use a formal facilitation method called the “Focused Conversation Method”, developed by an organization called ICA that specializes in facilitation services and training.
We’ll use this method today to help support the backcasting exercise. We’ll conduct a number of focused conversations throughout the exercise to help the group gain consensus as part of each step.

Backcasting 101
Facilitation – The ORID Framework
The backbone of the Focused Conversation Method is the ORID framework.
O - Objective
R - Reflective
I - Interpretive
D - Decisional
As you conduct a conversation, you ask questions that move the participants through the ORID framework as a group.

Backcasting 101
Facilitation – More on ORID
There are two primary ways to use ORID to support a group decision-making process
Use the components of ORID in iterative sequences to advance the group through the consensus building process
Use the components of ORID to listen to where individuals are stuck in the process and ask them questions that help them to become unstuck

Backcasting 101
Facilitation – Driving a Workshop with Focused Conversation
Your workshop should have both a rational aim, and an experiential aim
You open each conversation with context, and close with confirmation of a resolution
ORID is use to drive a conversational process of ideation, relationship formation and consensus building
You’ll want to prepare a clear focus question at the start of the exercise and structure it so that the resolution of the question at the end of the exercise supports the rational and experiential aims of your exercise.

Facilitation – The Structure of a Focused Conversation
Backcasting 101
Closing
Comments
Reflections
Opening
Topic
Parameters of Conversation
Participation Guidelines
Time
Concrete beginning point
Objective
Getting the facts
Focusing attention on objective information and facts about the topic
Asking for information and sensory impressions
Reflective
Personal reactions, associations, emotions, images
Questions bring out people’s immediate reactions and internal associations with the facts
Rational Aim What the group will KNOW, learn or decide by the end of the conversation Experiential Aim How the group will be different at the end of the conversation
Interpretive
Meaning, values, significance, purpose, implications.
Questions highlight layers of purpose and meaning
What is the significance people attach to the subject.
Decisional
Resolution
Questions allow people to name, and/or identify their relationship & responses to the situation or topic
Brings the group to resolution

Backcasting 101
Facilitation – Objective
Focus of the questions: Data, the facts about the topic and external realities
The goal is to have the group deal with the same body of data
Questions should be in relation to the senses; tangible
Avoid asking closed questions or unspecific questions

Backcasting 101
Facilitation – Reflective
Focus of the questions: internal and/or personal relationships to the data
The goal is to reveal initial reactions to the information and validate the knowledge and experience of the participants
Questions should be in relation to moods, emotional tones, memories or associations
Avoid turning the discussion into a survey of likes/dislikes

Backcasting 101
Facilitation – Interpretive
Focus of the questions: the meaning of the topic
The goal is to draw out significance from the objective and reflective data/inputs
Questions should be in relation to layers of meaning, purpose, significance and implications; consideration of alternatives and options
Avoid inserting “pre-cooked” meaning, intellectualizing or abstracting

Backcasting 101
Facilitation – Decisional
Focus of the questions: direct accomplishment of the rational aim along with resolution and new directions
The goal is to make the conversation relevant for the future and complete the current conversation
Questions are in relation to consensus, implementation and action
Avoid forcing a decision if the group is not ready or alternately, not pushing the group when a decision is needed.

Backcasting 101
Focused Conversations for Backcasting # 1
Time frame
O – What time frame is relevant to explore?
R – What aspects of this time frame are you comfortable with?
R – What aspects of this timeframe are you not comfortable with?
I – Why is this time frame important to explore
I – What are the implications of exploring this time frame?
D – What are we collectively suggesting should be the time frame?
D – What is our consensus on the time frame to use for this exercise?

Backcasting 101
Current State
O – What elements are central to describing the current state?
0 – Who are the key players in the current state?
O – What is most striking about the current state?
R – What do you think is positive about the current state?
R – What do you think is negative about the current state?
I – What is significant about the current state?
I – What insights do we have about the current state?
D – Can we agree on a definition of the current state?

Backcasting 101
Future States
O – What elements are central to describing desired future states?
0 – Who are the key players in the future state?
O – What is most intriguing about these future states?
R – What do you think is concerning about these future states?
I – What is significant about these future states?
I – What insights do we have about the future state?
D – Can we agree on our definitions of the future state?

Backcasting 101
Actions and Indicators
O – What would be required to “get from there to here”?
0 – What indicators would you use to measure these actions?
O – What is the relationship between an action and indicator?
R – Why are these the actions that make sense?
R – What do you think is these indicators should tell us?
I – Do these actions push us in one direction or another?
I – Do these indicators have the ability to show directionality?
D – Can we agree on these actions, these indicators?

Backcasting 101
Risks and Opportunities
O – What specific opportunities do you see?
0 – What specific risks do you see?
O – What are the relationships between opportunities and risks?
R – Why are these opportunities compelling or interesting?
R – What is concerning or threatening about these risks?
I – Do we feel we need additional actions and indicators?
I – Is there overarching significance in the opportunities/risks ?
D – Can we agree that these opportunities and risks are work exploring further?

Backcasting 101 Case Study

Backcasting 101 Method Walkthrough

Backcasting 101
Step 1: Determine the Timeline
Step 2: Describe the Current State
Step 3: Draw out the Future States
Step 4: Determine Actions and Indicators
Step 5: Assess Risks and Opportunities
Backcasting: Method Walkthrough

Backcasting 101 Backcasting: Method Walkthrough

Backcasting 101 Backcasting Exercise

Backcasting 101
The Problem:
What is the future value of information architecture?
The Aims of the Exercise:
Rational Aim – to ensure that participants have a shared view of what the future value of information architecture ought to be.
Experiential Aim – to ensure that all participants are exposed to the backcasting method and are intrigued by its possibilities for their work.
Backcasting: Exercise

Backcasting 101
Set Time Frame
O – What time frame is relevant to explore?
R – What aspects of this time frame are you comfortable with?
R – What aspects of this timeframe are you not comfortable with?
I – Why is this time frame important to explore
I – What are the implications of exploring this time frame?
D – What are we collectively suggesting should be the time frame?
D – What is our consensus on the time frame to use for this exercise?

Backcasting 101
Define Current State
O – What elements are central to describing the current state?
0 – Who are the key players in the current state?
O – What is most striking about the current state?
R – What do you think is positive about the current state?
R – What do you think is negative about the current state?
I – What is significant about the current state?
I – What insights do we have about the current state?
D – Can we agree on a definition of the current state?

Backcasting 101
Define Possible Future States
O – What elements are central to describing desired future states?
0 – Who are the key players in the future state?
O – What is most intriguing about these future states?
R – What do you think is concerning about these future states?
I – What is significant about these future states?
I – What insights do we have about the future state?
D – Can we agree on our definitions of the future state?

Backcasting 101
Work Backwards; Define Actions and Indicators
O – What would be required to “get from there to here”?
0 – What indicators would you use to measure these actions?
O – What is the relationship between an action and indicator?
R – Why are these the actions that make sense?
R – What do you think is these indicators should tell us?
I – Do these actions push us in one direction or another?
I – Do these indicators have the ability to show directionality?
D – Can we agree on these actions, these indicators?

Backcasting 101
Assess Opportunities and Risks
O – What specific opportunities do you see?
0 – What specific risks do you see?
O – What are the relationships between opportunities and risks?
R – Why are these opportunities compelling or interesting?
R – What is concerning or threatening about these risks?
I – Do we feel we need additional actions and indicators?
I – Is there overarching significance in the opportunities/risks ?
D – Can we agree that these opportunities and risks are work exploring further?

Backcasting 101 Exercise Debrief

Backcasting 101
To Start:
What Worked?
What Didn’t?
What Could We Do Differently Next Time?
What Surprised You?
What Gaps Do You Still Have With Your Understanding of the Method?
Backcasting: Exercise Debrief

Backcasting 101 Reporting and Informing

Backcasting 101
Goals of Reporting
Communicating back results of the workshop to the participants: “Here’s what we thought”
Communicating the results of the workshop to stakeholders who did not attend: “Here is what the group agreed on”
Moving the organizational perspective and focus from decisions to solutions: “Here is what you see as the road ahead, and here is how we can help you more forward”
Supporting strategic goal setting by documenting end states and the efforts required to achieve them
Cementing your role as a partner in further strategy and solution work
Backcasting: Reporting and Informing

Backcasting 101
Types of Outputs:
Reports
Maps
Stories

Backcasting 101
Using Outputs for Project Planning
Break the opportunities and indicators out of the mix and focus on two perspectives:
“ What can we start to work on immediately and what is a downstream initiative?”
“ How are we going to measure these activities so that we not only measure success/failure, but also the impact of the activates to the overall strategy map
Bubble 30, 60 and 90 Day “quick wins to the surface” and move forward with those, having a clear understanding of how they feed into downstream initiatives.

Backcasting 101
Regular Revisits Help!
This should not be the last time you talk about the exercise
Arrange regular regroups with the stakeholders to review progress.
Address current state progress in Quarterly Business Reviews, etc.
Integrate the backcasting findings into strategic planning work; start planning your next workshop.

Backcasting 101 Selling Backcasting

Backcasting 101
Selling Backcasting – Why and How
Your long-term value and revenue pipeline often is created without your initial involvement
Clients and/or internal groups may not be ready to involve you in strategic decision-making, but are more open to involvement in planning support
Most strategic planning happens around poorly formed “brainstorming”/ideation workshops. These are prime opportunities to sell in backcasting.
Sell based on immediate tangible value; 90 day plans and actionable outcomes are more appealing then a discussion about the method itself.
Backcasting: Selling

Backcasting 101
Selling Backcasting – Showing Value
Most groups will have significant frustration with past planning processes, not due to the method but the lack of activity afterwards.
Talk to the actionable and measureable outcomes of a backcasting session, as well as the development of the strategic landscape.
Teams love workshops, but rarely enjoy planning them. Be the guide, not the guru in order to support the team

Backcasting 101
Selling Backcasting: Organizational Considerations
Before proposing the use of backcasting, understand the landscape in which it will be placed
A good workshop opens up opportunities and avoids alignment with specific agendas
Backcasting listens, and does not prescribe; set expectations around its value. It is not a silver bullet.
If it seems like you’re trying to hard to fit it in, you probably are. Wait for the right opportunity, don’t leap for the first one.

Backcasting 101 Wrap-up

Backcasting 101
A tool not for prediction, but knowing.
Flexible, fast and inclusive
Actionable, but only if you decide to make it so
Builds shared perspective through social learning
Allows you to demonstrate leadership through support as well as ideas
Backcasting: Wrap-up

Backcasting 101
The Workshop Objectives Revisited:
Expose you to the thinking and theory behind the method, and how it came to be used by information architects.
Show you how to plan, facilitate and conduct a backcasting session.
Give you walkthrough of the method and then conduct a short backcasting session with you, followed by a debrief
Give you some ideas on how to think about documenting and leveraging the results of a backcasting session
Give you some thoughts on how to sell the backcasting method to peers and/or clients
Do you understand the basics of the method and feel comfortable in starting to explore its use in your work?
Did you enjoy the session and get to participate in a way that was meaningful and enjoyable to you?
Backcasting: Wrap-up

Thanks [email_address] [email_address]

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Backcasting 101

by Matthew Milan

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