ICT delta presentatie sociale monitoring


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ICT delta presentatie sociale monitoring

  1. 1. Politieke monitoring sociale mediaLuisteren naar de conversatie op de bank thuisMartijn Kriens | @martijnkriens
  2. 2. Martijn Kriens Business|Science|Government|Innova2on| ICT|eHealth  Cloud|Pancakes|Upstream| RTLNieuws|iCrowds|AIM|IIPSaaS   WirelessArnhem|Vlieger|Recalcitrant|  ....  @martijnkriens | martijn@upstream.nl
  3. 3. UPSTREAM Marketingfact, TravelNext, FoodNext, SportNext, UMCN St. Radboud, Deli XL, HAN, Rabobank, ING, WNF, Efteling, TUI Nederland, Omroep Gelderland, TMG, Arnhem Dichtbij, RTL, Cito, Bank van Morgen, AIM, Gemeente Nijmegen, RTLNieuws@upstream | www.upstream.nl
  4. 4. Conversation and communication
  5. 5. Conversation and communicationPage § 7
  6. 6. Conversation and communicationPage § 8
  7. 7. Frommyfatherscenturyto mysonscentury
  8. 8. FacebookDaily in NL 12.000.000  
  9. 9. TwitterDaily tweets in NL5.000.000  
  10. 10. Sources Dutch social webIn the Netherlands 390.000  
  11. 11. Social media use per agegroup social media1009080706050 social media403020 10 0 20 - 34 jaar 35 - 49 jaar 50 - 64 jaar 65 jaar e.o. Feb.  2012,  O&S  Amsterdam  
  12. 12. The  new  electronic  interdependence  recreates  the  world  in  the  image  of  a  global  village     Marshall  McLuhan  
  13. 13. # political messages25 Maart tot en met 23 September 2012 Verkiezingen   5  Miljoen  berichten!   Val  kabinet   Programma’s  
  14. 14. # last month before election2,2 Miljoen berichten (normaal is ongeveer 50.000 per maand) Verkiezingsdag   RTL  Premier-­‐debat   RTL  Carre-­‐debat   NOS  Slotdebat   EO  debat  
  15. 15. Sources political messagesVan de 2,2 Miljoen totaal in maand voorafgaand aan de verkiezingen Bron Aantal Twitter 1.644.184 Nieuws 224.855 Facebook 96.168 Forum 50.135 Blog 35.105 Hyves 21.967 Overigen Minder dan 1% Twi,er  is  the  most  important  social  pla5orm  for  poli7cal  discussion  
  16. 16. Authors in last month before electionVerdeling over Twitteraars •  Roelfina090444 stuurde 5767 berichten! •  Bovenste 500 samen 300.000 berichten –  Ongeveer 15%, 500ste heeft bijna 300 berichten gestuurd in 30 dagen tijd •  Totaal 300.000 auteurs
  17. 17. How to determine sentimentVolgen van specifiek sentiment in relatie tot lijsttrekkers Y-­‐as  is  percentage,  totaal  vier  lijs<rekkers  is  100%  
  18. 18. Role sentiment in debates“Mijnheer Rutte, nu doet u het weer.Opmerking bij de start stuurt sentimenthele debat
  19. 19. Role sentiment in debatesOok scherpe stijging aantal reacties na “U doet het weer “Nu  doet  u  het  weer”  
  20. 20. Role sentiment in debatesWilders maakte vooral theater en krijgt daar veel “positieve”aandacht mee
  21. 21. Carré debat1 op 1 sessies scoren
  22. 22. Winnaar Carré debat?
  23. 23. Partij of partijleiderSamsom trekt PVDA omhoog
  24. 24. Voorspellende waardeOp basis van aantallen berichten, berekend op basis van trendlijnen Premier-­‐debat   VVD                41   PVDA          40           SP    15   PVV    15   CDA    12  
  25. 25. Conclusions •  Sentiment can be measured but relation to the election outcome is hazy –  VVD had in general a negative sentiment but did win the election •  Total number of messages per party/chairman has a relation to election outcome (2010/2012) –  But tuning the statistical message is still a challenge •  Social monitoring delivers valuable information for a political party –  Buzz and sentiment can steer attitude and content in debates
  26. 26. Project X HarenDe wisselwerking tussen massa en sociale media
  27. 27. Project X Haren A  16  year  old  girl  invites  some  friends   to  het  sweet  sixteen  party…  
  28. 28. Project X HarenBefore Merthe’s invitation already a regular stream on ProjectX Ongeveer  150  berichten  per  dag   Alle  data:  bron  
  29. 29. Project X Haren7 September plaatst Merthe haar uitnodigingSlechts  401  berichten  tot  en  met  17  September!  (Facebook  32  originele  berichten  waar  219  reac2es  op  zijn  gegeven.  Reac2es  komen  bovenop  de  401.  Twicer  Gemiddeld  2  reac2es  op  bericht.    Totaal  maakt  dat  ongeveer  1000  berichten  In  10  dagen)    
  30. 30. Project X HarenUntil 17th of September mainlymessages from region Groningen
  31. 31. Project X Haren18th September 10:39 message in national newspaper
  32. 32. Project X HarenNational TV broadcaster NOS places message on website
  33. 33. Project X HarenTweet from NOS on 15:29 starts the real buzz on socialmedia
  34. 34. Project X HarenEvening on the 18th of September the buzzgrows again after the late news items NOS andRTL4 In  de  avond  van  de  18e  September   Komt  ProjectX  Haren  op  TV,  late  journaal  en  Nieuws  
  35. 35. Project X HarenAt that moment subjects covered are mainly about the governmentactions itself
  36. 36. Project X HarenMessages spread but are stillmainly from the Groningen region
  37. 37. Project X Haren19th and 20th September it grows to 11.000 messages. Mainsubject is youth planning to join the “party”
  38. 38. Project X HarenMessages are more and more comming from allover the country Nog  steeds  65%  van   de  berichten  uit  de   regio  Groningen  
  39. 39. Project X Haren21th of September during the day the number of messages growsf100 per minute, mainly people discussing a visit
  40. 40. Project X HarenIn the evening it further growths, especially after 20:30. Topics mainlyfrom younger people
  41. 41. Project X Haren Late in the evening it growts to almost 2000 messages a minute when the Dutch follow the riots on TVMain  topic:  catch  the  rioteers  
  42. 42. Project X HarenDiscussion in the whole of theNetherlands
  43. 43. Project X HarenThe day after most of the discussion focuses on who isto blame Totaal  350.000  berichten  
  44. 44. Project X HarenA Perfect Storm •  Recent film “Project X” –  Popular movie among young people •  Mass media that focus attention –  Government preparation makes the issue “serious” •  Ability to organise with social media –  Easier to assemble and coordinate groups –  “Cooperation without coordination” •  Hooligans –  Hooligans finding new channels because socker is protected
  45. 45. Project X Haren
  46. 46. Project X HarenVerantwoording •  Invitational pages for party are not used –  Because “liking” is a low participation action •  Some facebook and twitter pages are closed –  But closed accounts are not very viral •  “Professional hooligans do not communicate over open channels –  But hooligans need a crowd and you nee open channels to create a crowd
  47. 47. Project X ArnhemThe start In  the  evening  a  Facebook  page  is  made   that  immediately  a,racts  a,en7on  in  the   night     Messages  mainly  from  Arnhem  
  48. 48. Project X ArnhemPage creation until 28thSeptember (date of the “party”) Prac7cally  no  buzz  from  the  crea7on  of  the  page  un7l  the   date  of  the  party  
  49. 49. Project X ArnhemAfternoon 28th September 15:30  ar7cle  on  the   government  ac7on  by   the  NOS  on  the   webpage  
  50. 50. Project X ArnhemLate afternoon, early evening Short  burst  of  a,en7on   due  to  the  police   barricades  at  the   entrance  of  the  city   Hardly  any  conversa7on  of  youth  talking  about  going  to  the  party  
  51. 51. Proposal Creative Industries News  dynamics  in  networks  of  media,   stakeholders  and  audiences:  trajectories  of   aIenJon  and  senJment  in  semanJc  networks  
  52. 52. Marketingfacts jaarboek 2012http://www.marketingfacts.nl/jaarboek/
  53. 53. UPSTREAMIt’s all about Content, Conversation and Collaboration CONTENT   Questions? CONVERSATION COLLABORATION  @martijnkriens | martijn@upstream.nl | Martijn Kriens