Maree Conway 2009 Environmental Scanning … what it is and how to do it

Framework Current Planning Approaches Strategic Thinking from a Futures Perspective Environmental Scanning Challenges You Might Face Overview

Framework

Current Planning Approaches

Strategic Thinking from a Futures Perspective

Environmental Scanning

Challenges You Might Face

Strategy = making decisions in an uncertain context

Making strategic decisions in an uncertain context? Focus Be aware of worldviews Involve many Scan, analyse, interpret Think and imagine Ensure relevance and plausibility Test, question, challenge Decide, implement and monitor

Focus

Be aware of worldviews

Involve many

Scan, analyse, interpret

Think and imagine

Ensure relevance and plausibility

Test, question, challenge

Decide, implement and monitor

A holistic approach Interior Exterior Collective Individual Staff and stakeholder views Organisational Culture Observed Behaviour The collective external world Intentional “I” Behavioural “It” Cultural “We” Social “Its” Ken Wilber

The Broad Process

Scanning helps to understand the context of your preferred future – where you want to go.

Current Planning Approaches

Develop a single ‘default scenario’ – a linear extrapolation of today. Single outcome

Develop a single ‘default scenario’ – a linear extrapolation of today.

Often lack the flexibility to deal with unexpected changes in the external environment.

Often lack the flexibility to deal with unexpected changes in the external environment.

Usually do not include any processes for systematically exploring possible futures for your organisation.

Usually do not include any processes for systematically exploring possible futures for your organisation.

Tend to rely heavily on quantitative data, suggesting a single outcome, and dismiss validity of qualitative data.

Tend to rely heavily on quantitative data, suggesting a single outcome, and dismiss validity of qualitative data.

Miss potential innovation and strategic options because they don’t challenge organisational assumptions and ideologies .

Miss potential innovation and strategic options because they don’t challenge organisational assumptions and ideologies .

And, usually don’t include any systematic processes for listening to the views of staff, before a plan is written.

While the need for planning has never been greater, the relevance of most of today’s planning systems and tools is increasingly marginal (Fuller, 2003). Future

While the need for planning has never been greater, the relevance of most of today’s planning systems and tools is increasingly marginal (Fuller, 2003).

It may well be that the typical strategic planning exercise now conducted on a regular and formal basis and infused with quantitative data misses the essence of the concept of strategy and what is involved in thinking strategically (Sidorowicz, 2000). Data

It may well be that the typical strategic planning exercise now conducted on a regular and formal basis and infused with quantitative data misses the essence of the concept of strategy and what is involved in thinking strategically (Sidorowicz, 2000).

A major assumption of the strategic planning literature … is that all of these terms [strategy, planning] necessarily go together. [That is] Strategy formation is a planning process, designed or supported by planners, to plan in order to produce plans” (Mintzberg, 1994). Clarity

A major assumption of the strategic planning literature … is that all of these terms [strategy, planning] necessarily go together. [That is] Strategy formation is a planning process, designed or supported by planners, to plan in order to produce plans” (Mintzberg, 1994).

Strategic Thinking from a Futures Perspective

Strategic Thinking Generating Options What might happen? Strategic Decision Making Making choices What will we do? Strategic Planning Taking Action How will we do it? Options Decisions Actions

Strategic Thinking Generating Options What might happen? Strategic Decision Making Making choices What will we do? Strategic Planning Taking Action How will we do it? Options Decisions Actions Futures Approaches and Methods

Conventional Business Thinking Futures Thinking Immediate term Depth of vision Own business focus Cross-disciplinary Attention to detail Broad vision Techno-economic trends focus Trends and emerging issues Problem approach Systems approach Less attention to connections Interactions and cross-impact Continuity assumption Wild cards and discontinuities Bottom line focus Strategic focus Undiscussables Speak the unspeakable Short term focus Long term orientation A single future Alternative futures Mainstream thinking Mind changers Past and present dominate decision making Future dominates decision making

Strategic thinking is identifying, thinking about and understanding possible and plausible future operating environments for your organisation…

Strategic thinking is identifying, thinking about and understanding possible and plausible future operating environments for your organisation…

… so you can use that knowledge to expand your thinking about your potential options,

… so you can use that knowledge to expand your thinking about your potential options,

… to position your organisation effectively in the external environment,

… to position your organisation effectively in the external environment,

… in order to make better informed decisions about action to take today.

… in order to make better informed decisions about action to take today.

We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.

We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.

We start here… Long term Uncertain Divergent Incomplete Beyond linear Disrupting alignment

Long term

Uncertain

Divergent

Incomplete

Beyond linear

Disrupting alignment

We end up here. Short term Logical Convergent Pragmatic Deductive Creating Alignment

Short term

Logical

Convergent

Pragmatic

Deductive

Creating Alignment

Environmental Scanning

ES is the art of systematically exploring and interpreting the external environment to better understand the nature of trends and drivers of change and their likely future impact on your organisation.

Long-term TIME HORIZON Short-term Narrow SCOPE OF INFORMATION GATHERING Broad Adapted from Choo, Information Management for the Intelligent Organization, 1998 Where environmental scanning fits… Competitor Intelligence understanding the nature of our competitors and their likely responses to change Competitive Intelligence understanding how our competitors interact with the business and market environment in which they operate Business Intelligence understanding the present and future environments with a focus on future competitive environments Environmental Scanning developing a broad understanding of the external environment Social Intelligence understanding how a country uses its intelligence (knowledge industry and information networks) to meet its developmental challenges Future View building a long-term foresight view about the future of the country and the planet

Narrow SCOPE OF INFORMATION GATHERING Broad

Adapted from Choo, Information Management for the Intelligent Organization, 1998

Types of Futures Time Today Futures Cone developed by Clem Bezold Possible Plausible Probable Preferable Scenario “ Wildcard”

Where to Focus ES Time Today (Trends) ( Deep Drivers) Plausible Probable

How robust do we want our planning inputs to be? Bigger – how wide are we looking? Deeper – are seriously are we questioning? Longer – how far ahead are we looking? Why do it this way?

How robust do we want our planning inputs to be?

Bigger – how wide are we looking?

Deeper – are seriously are we questioning?

Longer – how far ahead are we looking?

Big – do we understand how we connect and interact with other organisations and the external environment?

Big – do we understand how we connect and interact with other organisations and the external environment?

Deep – how deeply are we questioning our ways of operating? Do we operate from our interpretation of the past, or our anticipation of the future? Are our assumptions today valid into the future?

Deep – how deeply are we questioning our ways of operating?

Do we operate from our interpretation of the past, or our anticipation of the future?

Are our assumptions today valid into the future?

Long – how far into the future are we looking? Do we understand the shape of alternative futures for our organisation?

Long – how far into the future are we looking? Do we understand the shape of alternative futures for our organisation?

Whatever takes you away from conventional thinking… Trends Emerging Issues The weird and unimaginable

Beyond the short-term Beyond busy “ We want to be proactive…” But how can you be proactive if you have little idea about what’s coming? Why do it this way?

Beyond the short-term

Beyond busy

“ We want to be proactive…”

But how can you be proactive if you have little idea about what’s coming?

Unless you scan, you WILL always be reacting/in crisis management/putting out bushfires.

Unless you scan, you WILL always be reacting/in crisis management/putting out bushfires.

The aim of scanning work is to provide robust information (trends and emerging issues) to enable you to build a long term context for your strategic planning today. Aim of ES

The aim of scanning work is to provide robust information (trends and emerging issues) to enable you to build a long term context for your strategic planning today.

Doing ES: Focus

But, lots of information out there, so how to focus effort? Focusing your Scanning

But, lots of information out there, so how to focus effort?

You can just scan (undirected), but a poor use of resources in a strategy project. An anchor or framing question directs and focuses scanning. The anchor

You can just scan (undirected), but a poor use of resources in a strategy project.

An anchor or framing question directs and focuses scanning.

What is the key strategic issue? This is the framing question. What do we need to know about the issue? These are the factors that will influence the decision. What are trends and drivers of change affecting these factors? This becomes the focus for environmental scanning: education specific, and broad, global forces. The anchor

What is the key strategic issue?

This is the framing question.

What do we need to know about the issue?

These are the factors that will influence the decision.

What are trends and drivers of change affecting these factors?

This becomes the focus for environmental scanning:

education specific, and

broad, global forces.

The Scanning Process

The External Environment Adapted from K. van der Heijden Education Environment Social Environment Suppliers Clients Competitors Educational Organisation Driving Forces Driving Forces Factors / Trends Issues / Forces Social Technological Economic Ecological Political … Students Customers Members of Wider Society

Organisation Industry Learning Educational Gaming Funding Engagement Online Sustainability Vocational Imperative The External Environment

Organisation Global Industry Technology Lifestyle Values Politics Economy Environment Demographics & generational change Learning Educational Gaming Funding Engagement Online Sustainability Vocational Imperative The External Environment Globalisation

Organisation Global Industry Technology Lifestyle Values Politics Economy Environment Demographics & generational change Learning Educational Gaming Funding Engagement Online Sustainability Vocational Imperative The External Environment Globalisation Wildcard Wildcard Wildcard Wildcard

Event Trend ( grouping of events) Driver ( moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature)

Event Trend ( grouping of events) Driver ( moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature) When you start scanning, you will find lots of events

Event Trend ( grouping of events) Driver ( moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature) Gradually, you will be able to group similar ‘hits’ into broader categories – trends.

But it might still feel like this – a bit of a maze to try and work your way through…

Event Trend ( grouping of events) Driver ( moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature) And consider: What is the counter trend? What is the wildcard? What we are really interested in exploring is what is driving these trends.

And this is where the connections between the trends will surface and it will make sense.

Trends And Emerging Issues Emerging Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Few cases, local focus Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers Innovators Early adopters Late Adopters Late Majority Laggards Today Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Trends And Emerging Issues Emerging Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs Government Institutions Few cases, local focus Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers Innovators Early adopters Late Adopters Late Majority Laggards Today Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Trends And Emerging Issues Emerging Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs Government Institutions Few cases, local focus Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers Innovators Early adopters Late Adopters Late Majority Laggards Today Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years Most scanning takes place here

Trends And Emerging Issues Emerging Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals,blogs Government Institutions Few cases, local focus Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers Innovators Early adopters Late Adopters Late Majority Laggards Today Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years But we need to look on the fringe as well

Today Future TIME UNCERTAINTY Linear Future Low High The linear future is the one we believe to be true, usually based on untested assumptions Usual Planning Timeframe (3-5 years) Trend

Today Future TIME UNCERTAINTY Linear Future Low High Possible Futures Usual Planning Timeframe (3-5 years) Trend

Today Future TIME UNCERTAINTY Linear Future Low High Possible Futures Usual Planning Timeframe (3-5 years) Trend But…don’t forget the wildcard…

Trends don’t tell you anything – someone has to interpret the trend for it to be meaningful. Otherwise you are engaged in trend spotting as opposed to trend analysis . Trends

Trends don’t tell you anything – someone has to interpret the trend for it to be meaningful.

Otherwise you are engaged in trend spotting as opposed to trend analysis .

Extrapolations of the past and present, not future facts Uncertain future trajectories What assumptions underpin your thinking about outcomes? Trends Don’t get lost in the data smog!

Extrapolations of the past and present, not future facts

Uncertain future trajectories

What assumptions underpin your thinking about outcomes?

Trends are approaching mainstream – nothing new. Emerging Issues is about what’s at the horizon, at the periphery. Realm of the weird and the whacky, so difficult to present with credibility. Emerging Issues Analysis

Trends are approaching mainstream – nothing new.

Emerging Issues is about what’s at the horizon, at the periphery.

Realm of the weird and the whacky, so difficult to present with credibility.

Starts with a shift in values/perspectives – need to search at the fringes Emergence – people start to talk about it, but a minority – easier to influence now Champion – look for the thought leaders and rebels Defining event – brings the issue to public attention – morphs into a trend/harder to shape and influence Emerging Issues Analysis

Starts with a shift in values/perspectives – need to search at the fringes

Emergence – people start to talk about it, but a minority – easier to influence now

Champion – look for the thought leaders and rebels

Defining event – brings the issue to public attention – morphs into a trend/harder to shape and influence

Because emerging issues are weak, obscure, crazy, and fragile, good practical people usually ignore or ridicule them. Since these “useful” ideas are not part of their commonsense, people conclude they are nonsense. And this fact led me to formulate Dator’s Second Law of the Future. Namely, “Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous”. Emerging Issues Analysis Jim Dator, US Futurist

Because emerging issues are weak, obscure, crazy, and fragile, good practical people usually ignore or ridicule them. Since these “useful” ideas are not part of their commonsense, people conclude they are nonsense.

And this fact led me to formulate Dator’s Second Law of the Future. Namely, “Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous”.

Particularly useful for challenging long held assumptions about how things will be. Good for ‘what if’ questions. Emerging Issues

Particularly useful for challenging long held assumptions about how things will be.

Good for ‘what if’ questions.

Where to Look

If you’re looking for new ideas that don’t yet exist, don’t talk to normal people because they’re just consuming what is available today – find the weirdos and see what they are doing, what they’re making on their own, and say gee – is there something I can mainstream from this? Tom Kelly Founder, Ideo

If you’re looking for new ideas that don’t yet exist, don’t talk to normal people because they’re just consuming what is available today – find the weirdos and see what they are doing, what they’re making on their own, and say gee – is there something I can mainstream from this?

Tom Kelly

Founder, Ideo

Newspapers, websites, blogs, wikis, podcasts, videos, news sites, newsletter, magazines, books, book reviews, presentations, reports, surveys, interviews, seminars, chat rooms, trend observers, advertisers, philosophers sociologists, management gurus, consultants, researchers, experts, universities. Where to look…

Newspapers, websites, blogs, wikis, podcasts, videos, news sites, newsletter, magazines, books, book reviews, presentations, reports, surveys, interviews, seminars, chat rooms, trend observers, advertisers, philosophers sociologists, management gurus, consultants, researchers, experts, universities.

Trendwatching Future Scanner Brain Reserve Shaping Tomorrow Now and Next The Tomorrow Project SRIC-BI Arlington Institute (wildcards) Some Scanning Sites

Trendwatching

Future Scanner

Brain Reserve

Shaping Tomorrow

Now and Next

The Tomorrow Project

SRIC-BI

Arlington Institute (wildcards)

Identify opinion leaders, the voice in the wilderness on the fringe: Expert Professional Pundit Amateur Fringe Looking for… Shaping Tomorrow 2008

Identify opinion leaders, the voice in the wilderness on the fringe:

Expert

Professional

Pundit

Amateur

Fringe

Don’t dismiss the outliers…

Don’t dismiss the outliers…

New First Idea Change Surprise Opportunity Threat Looking for… Shaping Tomorrow 2008

New

First

Idea

Change

Surprise

Opportunity

Threat

Ideally, a scan hit identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and that has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation. Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures 2004 Looking for…

Ideally, a scan hit identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and that has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation.

Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures 2004

Some Examples

The impact of global trends...

THE GLOBAL BRAIN A truly global explosion of talent

...the rise of pervasive computing and increasing connectedness

The potential impact of the metaverse… where virtual and physical come together

Quantum computers will arrive by 2021. Biometric security by 2010. Challenge of protecting privacy increasing. Virtual immortality is within reach. Power to make things invisible may be at hand. Artificial intelligence surpassing human intelligence. Virtual education mainstream by 2015. Human knowledge capability will continue to double every year. Technology will lead to educated illiterates. But…only 30% of world’s population will have access to IT services by 2016. World Future Society says…

Quantum computers will arrive by 2021.

Biometric security by 2010.

Challenge of protecting privacy increasing.

Virtual immortality is within reach.

Power to make things invisible may be at hand.

Artificial intelligence surpassing human intelligence.

Virtual education mainstream by 2015.

Human knowledge capability will continue to double every year.

Technology will lead to educated illiterates.

But…only 30% of world’s population will have access to IT services by 2016.

...student choice and time, place and pace of learning

ONLINE OXYGEN Online access for the masses

ONLINE OXYGEN Training 10 million teachers

Photo: http://www.cyberpunkreview.com

Circa 1960 Filtering the right information from the exploding knowledge base will become critical

Changing demographics affecting rich and poor, east and west differently...

Understanding generational differences...

Environmental shifts...

Association for the Study of Peak Oil (www.peakoil.org): note that the US, Russian and European oil supplies have 'peaked' already years ago. After 2008, the global crisis kicks in.

Association for the Study of Peak Oil (www.peakoil.org): note that the US, Russian and European oil supplies have 'peaked' already years ago. After 2008, the global crisis kicks in.

The way we do business is changing.

Ethics and underpinning values are at risk...

...while the power of community grows

REALLY REAL Democratisation of protests and e-activism

SNACK CULTURE Deconstructing products - smaller, faster, cheaper

When is a hit useful?

How will I separate signals of real change from the noise? When is a ‘hit’ useful?

How will I separate signals of real change from the noise?

Explore what is happening today. What are other people saying about its evolution over time? What impact might it have on your industry today and in the future? What might be the implications for your organisation? When is a hit useful?

Explore what is happening today.

What are other people saying about its evolution over time?

What impact might it have on your industry today and in the future?

What might be the implications for your organisation?

Use the ‘three times on the radar’ test Are there lots of high quality links about it? Test the hit for relevance with your scanning team. Ask someone outside your immediate work area. When is a ‘hit’ useful?

Use the ‘three times on the radar’ test

Are there lots of high quality links about it?

Test the hit for relevance with your scanning team.

Ask someone outside your immediate work area.

Does the hit aim to identify and assess possible future threats and opportunities, including radical alternatives? Does the hit explore trends and their potential impacts? Does the hit challenge existing assumptions underpinning current polices and practice? When is a ‘hit’ useful? Shaping Tomorrow

Does the hit aim to identify and assess possible future threats and opportunities, including radical alternatives?

Does the hit explore trends and their potential impacts?

Does the hit challenge existing assumptions underpinning current polices and practice?

Ultimately, you need to trust your intuition – your expertise, knowledge and insight is your best gauge. But, remember your blind spots! When is a scanning hit useful?

Ultimately, you need to trust your intuition – your expertise, knowledge and insight is your best gauge.

But, remember your blind spots!

Classifying Hits

How to Classify Hits? Social Technological Economic Environmental Political STEEP or add in Values to make it VERY STEEP* *Marcus Barber, Looking Up, Feeling Good

Recording and Sharing Hits

Title Summary Source and date published Initial assessment of implications Tag/STEEP See Scanning Hit Record What to Record

Title

Summary

Source and date published

Initial assessment of implications

Tag/STEEP

See Scanning Hit Record

For example (taken from SCAN, a publication by SRI Business Intelligence ): 2009-01-03 Streaming Video and Security (Information Week Daily 26 November 2001), describes the shift of Packet Video (a developer of video streaming technology) from consumer to security applications. The company’s technology could provide live feeds from the cockpits of hijacked planes.

For example (taken from SCAN, a publication by SRI Business Intelligence ):

2009-01-03 Streaming Video and Security (Information Week Daily 26 November 2001), describes the shift of Packet Video (a developer of video streaming technology) from consumer to security applications. The company’s technology could provide live feeds from the cockpits of hijacked planes.

Characteristics of a good scanner…

Open mind…

Curious…

Systems thinker…

Welcomes diversity…

Thinks outside the box…

Thinks outrageously at times…

Challenge my assumption…

Aware of own worldview

What might seem real to you probably won’t seem as real to the next person. How you filter information to create meaning is critical to understand. Worldview

What might seem real to you probably won’t seem as real to the next person.

How you filter information to create meaning is critical to understand.

Need to challenge your filters so that you don’t miss anything that might be important. Understand your filters and those for whom you are doing the scanning. Worldview

Need to challenge your filters so that you don’t miss anything that might be important.

Understand your filters and those for whom you are doing the scanning.

What are the major driving forces? What big surprises are on the horizon? What are possible discontinuities (wildcards)? As you scan…

What are the major driving forces?

What big surprises are on the horizon?

What are possible discontinuities (wildcards)?

If you think …‘that’s rubbish’, stop . First , ask why do I think it’s rubbish? Second , take another look. Third , ask what would enable you to accept it as possible? Scan to see if that is happening. As you scan…

If you think …‘that’s rubbish’, stop .

First , ask why do I think it’s rubbish?

Second , take another look.

Third , ask what would enable you to accept it as possible? Scan to see if that is happening.

As you scan… If you see it three or more times in your scanning, your first reaction was probably wrong! If you don’t see it again, you were probably right!

Challenges You Might Face

Challenges: Info Overload

Challenges: Stretching Your Thinking

Challenges: Finding the Time

Individual Scanning Unconscious Implicit solitary Environmental Scanning Conscious Explicit Collective

Individual Scanning

Unconscious

Implicit

solitary

Environmental Scanning

Conscious

Explicit

Collective

We do scanning to avoid having a perspective like this…

Have fun!