Building a Strategic Foresight Capacity AAIR Forum, November 2007 Maree Conway

What epitaph do you want on your tombstone?

And why does it matter?

The impact of human activities on the planet is unmistakable and profound. A Civilisational Challenge

The impact of human activities on the planet is unmistakable and profound.

The impact of human activities on organisations is unmistakable and profound. An Organisational Challenge

The impact of human activities on organisations is unmistakable and profound.

Foresight Everyone has an innate foresight capacity to think about the future. We do it everyday, but usually we don’t recognise it. To develop an individual foresight capacity, we first have to recognise that we have it, and that we need to use it.

Foresight Foresight is the ability to take a forward view. It enables action to be taken today with reference to, and within the context of, the future.

Strategic Foresight Strategic foresight is the capacity that emerges in organisations when people whose foresight capacities are overt , work together to build strategic processes that take a long view .

We implicitly expect continuity. We trust data, but not our intuition. We don’t think holistically from a systems perspective. It is politically incorrect to suggest that the future is not rosy. We hold unquestioned assumptions about the way we see the world . We have closed minds. So why is this not the norm?

We implicitly expect continuity.

We trust data, but not our intuition.

We don’t think holistically from a systems perspective.

It is politically incorrect to suggest that the future is not rosy.

We hold unquestioned assumptions about the way we see the world .

We have closed minds.

What’s your work environment like at the moment? But first…

What’s your work environment like at the moment?

Head down, bum up – so you miss what’s going on? Don’t have time to think ?

Too many decisions to make, not enough time or information to make them properly?

Too many are still unhappy with, or don’t trust, or don’t feel aligned to, their world of work. People say that their lives and organisations lack purpose , they don’t really trust leaders, and they feel their values – what’s really important to them in life – are too often at odds with what they do at work. They don’t feel listened to and don’t feel decisions are being made with the “long view ”. (Fabian Dattner) Something’s Missing?

Too many are still unhappy with, or don’t trust, or don’t feel aligned to, their world of work. People say that their lives and organisations lack purpose , they don’t really trust leaders, and they feel their values – what’s really important to them in life – are too often at odds with what they do at work. They don’t feel listened to and don’t feel decisions are being made with the “long view ”.

(Fabian Dattner)

“ Managers who get caught in the trap of overwhelming demands become prisoners of routine. They do not have time to notice opportunities. Their habituated work prevents them from taking the first necessary step toward harnessing willpower: developing the capacity to dream an idea into existence and transforming it into a concrete existence .” Heike Bruch & Sumantra Ghoshal, A Bias for Action: How Effective Managers Harness Their Willpower, Achieve Results, and Stop Wasting Time, HBSP, 2004 The Trap of Overwhelming Demands

“ Managers who get caught in the trap of overwhelming demands become prisoners of routine. They do not have time to notice opportunities. Their habituated work prevents them from taking the first necessary step toward harnessing willpower: developing the capacity to dream an idea into existence and transforming it into a concrete existence .”

Heike Bruch & Sumantra Ghoshal, A Bias for Action: How Effective Managers Harness Their Willpower, Achieve Results, and Stop Wasting Time, HBSP, 2004

Most cases of overwhelming demands stem not from managers’ actual work situations but from how they deal with those situations: you can never find time for the important things you feel under constant pressure you think you are indispensible The Trap of Overwhelming Demands

Most cases of overwhelming demands stem not from managers’ actual work situations but from how they deal with those situations:

you can never find time for the important things

you feel under constant pressure

you think you are indispensible

Failing to influence demands, just reacting to them (not questioning whether they can be re-shaped). Am I busy with the right things? The Trap of Overwhelming Demands

Failing to influence demands, just reacting to them (not questioning whether they can be re-shaped).

Am I busy with the right things?

Is it easier to be busy than set long term priorities? Managers who complain about having too little time often thrive on the sense of importance that busyness generates. And…

Is it easier to be busy than set long term priorities?

Managers who complain about having too little time often thrive on the sense of importance that busyness generates.

Quick fixes Short Term Language 24/7 Tinkering with the machine, never considering whether you need a new one Unhealthy Busyness Syndrome

Quick fixes

Short Term

Language

24/7

Tinkering with the machine, never considering whether you need a new one

Unhealthy

I’m too busy dealing with today to think about the future. I can only focus on the urgent, not the important. I can only think about what’s on my desk, not what’s going on out there. The impact of the busyness syndrome

I’m too busy dealing with today to think about the future.

I can only focus on the urgent, not the important.

I can only think about what’s on my desk, not what’s going on out there.

“ You want me to think about what!!!”

The Result? Our organisations will tend to be purposeless wastelands, populated by the perpetually busy and the inherently unhappy . Stephen Johnson, What do you do for a living, 2007

Tired Disillusioned Good people leave Doing what’s expected, nothing more Tragic vs Triumphant Aligned to articulated belief system Motivating sense of purpose Core values supported by behaviour

Tired

Disillusioned

Good people leave

Doing what’s expected, nothing more

Aligned to articulated belief system

Motivating sense of purpose

Core values supported by behaviour

Tired Disillusioned Good people leave Doing what’s expected, nothing more Tragic vs Triumphant Aligned to articulated belief system Motivating sense of purpose Core values supported by behaviour External focus Internal focus

Tired

Disillusioned

Good people leave

Doing what’s expected, nothing more

Aligned to articulated belief system

Motivating sense of purpose

Core values supported by behaviour

Think long term. Take a long term view. Have moved beyond the busyness syndrome. Have a strategic foresight capacity. Triumphant Organisations

Think long term.

Take a long term view.

Have moved beyond the busyness syndrome.

Have a strategic foresight capacity.

Exercise 1

Developing Strategic Foresight

Development of Foresight Individual Organisation Social FROM TO TO

Development of Foresight Individual Organisation Social Consumed by busyness Obsessed with the short term Fixated on growth as strategic driver FROM TO TO BUT…. BUT…. BUT….

Development of Foresight Individual Organisation Social Consumed by busyness Obsessed with the short term Fixated on growth as strategic driver Individual Foresight Long term thinking – strategic foresight Focus on Sustainability as strategic driver FROM TO TO BUT…. BUT…. BUT…. NEED NEED NEED

Development of Foresight Individual Organisation Social FROM TO TO

Levels Indicators Level 5 Social capacity for foresight as an emergent property Long term thinking becomes a social norm Level 4 Futures concepts and ideas enable a futures discourse to develop Foresight routinely applied in most organisations Level 3 Futures tools and methodologies increase analytical power Widespread use of standard foresight tools and methods Level 2 People in organisations begin to talk about and use futures processes, projects and structures in their work Futures concepts and ideas become influential via discourse Level 1 Raw capacities and perceptions of the human brain-mind system Unreflective use of forward thinking in daily life of individuals

Overt recognition and use Critical mass of people Value add is clear Benefit of change in society is clear Levels Indicators Level 5 Long term thinking becomes a social norm Level 4 Foresight routinely applied in most organisations Level 3 Widespread use of standard foresight tools and methods Level 2 Futures concepts and ideas become influential via discourse Level 1 Unreflective use of forward thinking in daily life of individuals

Development of Foresight

If you don’t care about the future, who will? But…are we too late? Party Pray Pioneer

If you don’t care about the future, who will?

The most fundamental work in the 21 st Century for all persons, organizations and whole societies is to become conscious architects and intentional co-creators of new ways of living that truly fit the unique conditions that are emerging in the 21 st Century. No… Ruben Nelson Foresight Canada

The most fundamental work in the 21 st Century for all persons, organizations and whole societies is to become conscious architects and intentional co-creators of new ways of living that truly fit the unique conditions that are emerging in the 21 st Century.

Strategic foresight...past, present and future

If you think strategic planning is the name of the game, think again!

The organisational ‘home’ of strategic foresight. AKA futures thinking AKA Long term thinking Strategic Thinking

The organisational ‘home’ of strategic foresight.

AKA futures thinking

AKA Long term thinking

Strategic Decision Making

Documenting Doing Tracking Reporting Strategic Planning

Documenting

Doing

Tracking

Reporting

Strategic plans that all look remarkably similar. A planning process that is greeted with groans rather than glee. Workshops where you can’t escape the work waiting back at the office rather than thinking strategically. But…right now…

Strategic plans that all look remarkably similar.

A planning process that is greeted with groans rather than glee.

Workshops where you can’t escape the work waiting back at the office rather than thinking strategically.

Internal and external Important not urgent Long term not short term Sustainable not a quick fix Meaningful not a chore Authentic input not lip service Think differently… What needs to change?

Internal and external

Important not urgent

Long term not short term

Sustainable not a quick fix

Meaningful not a chore

Authentic input not lip service

Think differently…

What really matters? Align the internal with the external Build a shared view of the future Focus on the long term to strengthen decision making today And only then, write a good plan. So, in strategy

What really matters?

Align the internal with the external

Build a shared view of the future

Focus on the long term to strengthen decision making today

And only then, write a good plan.

The focus is people, not the plan.

Strategy is only sustainable through people. Only people have a foresight capacity. Because…

Strategy is only sustainable through people.

Only people have a foresight capacity.

Strategy without people is strategy without a future.

Strategy without people is strategy without a future.

Everybody has the innate capacity for foresight. But, in organisational planning processes, that capacity is often not tapped and gets buried by busy work. Strategic Foresight

Everybody has the innate capacity for foresight.

But, in organisational planning processes, that capacity is often not tapped and gets buried by busy work.

We tend to rely on the foresight of our leaders, and assume (hope) that their foresight is adequate. Remember the wisdom of crowds . Strategic Foresight

We tend to rely on the foresight of our leaders, and assume (hope) that their foresight is adequate.

Remember the wisdom of crowds .

Big Picture Today (now )

Big Picture Today (now )

Big Picture Today (now )

Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View

Uncertainties Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View

Uncertainties Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View

Uncertainties Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Trends Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View

Uncertainties Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Trends Values Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View

Uncertainties Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Trends Values Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View

Big Picture Today (now )

Uncertainties Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Trends Values Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View

Futures ready strategy is flexible strategy that readies people in organisations to respond quickly and effectively to the challenges and uncertainties of the future.

The outlines of the 21st-century management model are already clear. Decision-making will be more peer based ; the tools of creativity will be widely distributed in organizations. Ideas will compete on an equal footing. Strategies will be built from the bottom up . Power will be a function of competence rather than of position. In terms of the future of management, we’re at the beginning of what will be a fairly long journey . You can see some of the pieces starting to come together, but we’re not there yet.” It’s still changing… Gary Hamel, The Future of Management, 2007

The outlines of the 21st-century management model are already clear. Decision-making will be more peer based ; the tools of creativity will be widely distributed in organizations. Ideas will compete on an equal footing. Strategies will be built from the bottom up . Power will be a function of competence rather than of position. In terms of the future of management, we’re at the beginning of what will be a fairly long journey . You can see some of the pieces starting to come together, but we’re not there yet.”

Exercise 2

Break

Building a Strategic Foresight Capacity AAIR Forum, November 2007 Maree Conway

Is this making sense?

How do you build futures ready strategy?

Using Futures Tools

Strategic thinking is not random. It is directed towards a particular strategic space/decision that needs to be made… … or towards testing the validity of existing strategy in rapidly changing external environments. It’s about strategic thinking…

Strategic thinking is not random.

It is directed towards a particular strategic space/decision that needs to be made…

… or towards testing the validity of existing strategy in rapidly changing external environments.

It’s about strategic thinking… Long term Divergent Incomplete information Beyond linear

Futures tools provide ways to think long term, to think strategically. In your work sheets ( Exercise 3: Step 1 ), note down as we work through these tools how they might be useful for your organisation. Futures Tools

Futures tools provide ways to think long term, to think strategically.

In your work sheets ( Exercise 3: Step 1 ), note down as we work through these tools how they might be useful for your organisation.

Different tools for different needs Different tools for different stages of strategy development How do you decide? Using Futures Tools

Different tools for different needs

Different tools for different stages of strategy development

How do you decide?

Discover Scanning, emerging issues, staff views, delphi, trend analysis, forecasting Think Causal layered analysis, scenarios, visioning, backcasting Embed Strategy development processes and practices, reporting, sharing, collaborating Futures Tools

Discover

Scanning, emerging issues, staff views, delphi, trend analysis, forecasting

Think

Causal layered analysis, scenarios, visioning, backcasting

Embed

Strategy development processes and practices, reporting, sharing, collaborating

Generic Foresight Process Copyright Joseph Voros, 2001

Environmental Scanning Trend Analysis – what’s going on out there? Emerging Issues Analysis – what’s happening at the edges Causal Layered Analysis – building shared views Scenario Planning – creating preferred futures Dipping into Futures

Environmental Scanning

Trend Analysis – what’s going on out there?

Emerging Issues Analysis – what’s happening at the edges

Causal Layered Analysis – building shared views

Scenario Planning – creating preferred futures

Overview of the process How to do it When to use it Dipping into Futures

Overview of the process

How to do it

When to use it

Exercise 3: Step 1

Environmental Scanning

Long-term TIME HORIZON Short-term Narrow SCOPE OF INFORMATION GATHERING Broad Adapted from Choo, Information Management for the Intelligent Organization, 1998 Where environmental scanning fits… Competitor Intelligence understanding the nature of our competitors and their likely responses to change Competitive Intelligence understanding how our competitors interact with the business and market environment in which they operate Business Intelligence understanding the present and future environments with a focus on future competitive environments Environmental Scanning developing a broad understanding of the external environment Social Intelligence understanding how Australia uses its intelligence (knowledge industry and information networks) to meet its developmental challenges Future View building a long-term foresight view about the future of the planet

Narrow SCOPE OF INFORMATION GATHERING Broad

Adapted from Choo, Information Management for the Intelligent Organization, 1998

Organisation Industry Learning Gaming Funding Engagement Online Sustainability Vocational Imperative The External Environment??

Organisation Global Industry Technology Lifestyle Values Politics Economy Environment Demographics & generational change Learning Gaming Funding Engagement Online Sustainability Vocational Imperative The External Environment Globalisation

Organisation Global Industry Technology Lifestyle Values Politics Economy Environment Demographics & generational change Learning Gaming Funding Engagement Online Sustainability Vocational Imperative The External Environment Globalisation Wildcard Wildcard Wildcard Wildcard

Trends And Emerging Issues Emerging Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals Government Institutions Few cases, local focus Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers Innovators Early adopters Late Adopters Late Majority Laggards Today Look on the fringe (weird and whacky!) Worldview issues will affect uptake at this stage – “I don’t believe that!”

Event Trend ( grouping of events) Driver ( moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature) Traffic jams Increasing mobility Function of cities What is the counter trend? What is the wildcard?

How do I see the world – what are my biases and blind spots? How will I filter the information? What will I trust and what will I reject? How will I analyse the information for my context? How will I report my findings so they are accepted as credible? Environmental Scanning

How do I see the world – what are my biases and blind spots?

How will I filter the information? What will I trust and what will I reject?

How will I analyse the information for my context?

How will I report my findings so they are accepted as credible?

Must understand how we filter information and see the world before we can claim to be able to interpret that information. Our filters mean we miss things that might be important – because we just don’t see them. In here

Must understand how we filter information and see the world before we can claim to be able to interpret that information.

Our filters mean we miss things that might be important – because we just don’t see them.

Scan to inform the strategic decision or scan to be able to ask questions (Choo 1998) Use a scanning frame to filter information STEEP Integral Out there

Scan to inform the strategic decision or scan to be able to ask questions (Choo 1998)

Use a scanning frame to filter information

STEEP

Integral

Looking for trends, drivers and emerging issues related to strategic decision/space. Need to assess their likelihood and potential impact for that space, and consequent decisions to be made. And, need to consider how trends might impact each other (scenarios are good for this) Environmental Scanning

Looking for trends, drivers and emerging issues related to strategic decision/space.

Need to assess their likelihood and potential impact for that space, and consequent decisions to be made.

And, need to consider how trends might impact each other (scenarios are good for this)

Extrapolations of the past and present, not future facts Counter-trends Wildcards Uncertain future trajectories What assumptions underpin your thinking? Using Trends But don’t get lost in the data smog!

Extrapolations of the past and present, not future facts

Counter-trends

Wildcards

Uncertain future trajectories

What assumptions underpin your thinking?

Trends don’t tell you anything – someone has to interpret the trend for it to be meaningful. Otherwise you are engaged in trend spotting as opposed to trend analysis. Using Trends

Trends don’t tell you anything – someone has to interpret the trend for it to be meaningful.

Otherwise you are engaged in trend spotting as opposed to trend analysis.

The more people involved in the interpretation process, the stronger the interpretation.

ES is about mainstream trends. Emerging Issues is about what’s at the horizon, at the periphery. Realm of the weird and the whacky, so difficult to present with credibility. Emerging Issues Analysis

ES is about mainstream trends.

Emerging Issues is about what’s at the horizon, at the periphery.

Realm of the weird and the whacky, so difficult to present with credibility.

Starts with a shift in values/perspectives – need to search at the fringes Emergence – people start to talk about it, but a minority – easier to influence now Champion – look for the thought leaders and rebels Defining event – brings the issue to public attention – morphs into a trend/harder to shape Emerging Issues Analysis

Starts with a shift in values/perspectives – need to search at the fringes

Emergence – people start to talk about it, but a minority – easier to influence now

Champion – look for the thought leaders and rebels

Defining event – brings the issue to public attention – morphs into a trend/harder to shape

Because emerging issues are weak, obscure, crazy, and fragile, good practical people usually ignore or ridicule them. Since these “useful” ideas are not part of their commonsense, people conclude they are nonsense. And this fact led me to formulate Dator’s Second Law of the Future. Namely, “Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous”. Emerging Issues Analysis Jim Dator, US Futurist

Because emerging issues are weak, obscure, crazy, and fragile, good practical people usually ignore or ridicule them. Since these “useful” ideas are not part of their commonsense, people conclude they are nonsense.

And this fact led me to formulate Dator’s Second Law of the Future. Namely, “Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous”.

A global survey on emerging environmental issues United Nations Environment Program, Global Environmental Outlook, 2000 www.grida.no/geo2000/english/0224.htm

What information is out there? Where do I look for it? What are the major driving forces? What big surprises are on the horizon? What might be significant for us that others don’t yet see? Where do I need to look to balance my blind spots? ES – How To

What information is out there?

Where do I look for it?

What are the major driving forces?

What big surprises are on the horizon?

What might be significant for us that others don’t yet see?

Where do I need to look to balance my blind spots?

Map your relevant drivers/trends/issues Do a cross impact analysis Determine which ones are critical, mainstream or emerging Do more research Consider implications for your organisation Use that as input into prospection processes ES – How to

Map your relevant drivers/trends/issues

Do a cross impact analysis

Determine which ones are critical, mainstream or emerging

Do more research

Consider implications for your organisation

Use that as input into prospection processes

Make use of metascanning services (eg Shaping Tomorrow), Tomorrow Project, lots of others. Things to consider: Who will scan (central or dispersed) Storing your scanning hits Making them accessible Reporting findings (reports, emails, presentations, meetings, newsletter) ES – How To

Make use of metascanning services (eg Shaping Tomorrow), Tomorrow Project, lots of others.

Things to consider:

Who will scan (central or dispersed)

Storing your scanning hits

Making them accessible

Reporting findings (reports, emails, presentations, meetings, newsletter)

All the time. Continuous process Use to inform specific information needs, or to seek out information that is generally related to strategic needs. Trends – When to Use

All the time.

Continuous process

Use to inform specific information needs, or to seek out information that is generally related to strategic needs.

All the time Continuous process Particularly useful for challenging long held assumptions about how things will be. Good for ‘what if’ questions. Emerging Issues – When to use

All the time

Continuous process

Particularly useful for challenging long held assumptions about how things will be.

Good for ‘what if’ questions.

Choo, CW, Information Management for the Intelligent Organization , 1998. DEFRA’s Horizon Scanning Strategy for Science (2002) http://horizonscanning . defra .gov.uk UK Government Foresight Program’s Horizon Scanning Centre http://www.foresight.gov.uk/HORIZON_SCANNING_CENTRE/index.html ES – Some Good References

Choo, CW, Information Management for the Intelligent Organization , 1998.

DEFRA’s Horizon Scanning Strategy for Science (2002) http://horizonscanning . defra .gov.uk

UK Government Foresight Program’s Horizon Scanning Centre http://www.foresight.gov.uk/HORIZON_SCANNING_CENTRE/index.html

Causal Layered Analysis

Tapping into people’s assumptions and worldviews about an issue. Accepting diversity of opinion, and surfacing that opinion. Building a shared view of a way forward. Causal Layered Analysis

Tapping into people’s assumptions and worldviews about an issue.

Accepting diversity of opinion, and surfacing that opinion.

Building a shared view of a way forward.

Can be challenging. Requires people to be open to other perspectives. Can require compromise. Causal Layered Analysis

Can be challenging.

Requires people to be open to other perspectives.

Can require compromise.

Litany Social Causes Worldviews Myth/Metaphor What is visible and accepted, easily articulated, not questioned What is beneath the surface that drives the litany, often contested when articulated.

Litany – what’s being said and by whom? Drivers – what’s driving the litany? Worldviews – whose worldview is dominant? Who is being ‘othered’? Myth/Metaphor/Story – what underpins the worldview? Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Step 1 - Understanding

Litany – what’s being said and by whom?

Drivers – what’s driving the litany?

Worldviews – whose worldview is dominant? Who is being ‘othered’?

Myth/Metaphor/Story – what underpins the worldview?

CLA Steps The layers are causally linked. A change in approach in one layer affects all other layers. No layer is more privileged – each layer represents what has been surfaced about a particular way of seeing the issue.

The layers are causally linked. A change in approach in one layer affects all other layers.

No layer is more privileged – each layer represents what has been surfaced about a particular way of seeing the issue.

What future do we want? What stories and myths describe that future? What values do we want to underpin that future? How do we start to create that future? How? Who? What? What can we do now? CLA Step 2 - Rebuilding

What future do we want?

What stories and myths describe that future?

What values do we want to underpin that future?

How do we start to create that future?

How?

Who?

What?

What can we do now?

When you have strong, diverse views about an issue that is preventing you from making a needed change. When there are elements of hostility in interactions about an issue. When you need to develop a shared view of an issue. CLA – when to use

When you have strong, diverse views about an issue that is preventing you from making a needed change.

When there are elements of hostility in interactions about an issue.

When you need to develop a shared view of an issue.

Sohail Inayatullah, www.metafuture.org The CLA Reader (edited by Sohail Inayatullah) Serafino de Simone – “Causal Layered Analysis: a cookbook approach” CLA - References

Sohail Inayatullah, www.metafuture.org

The CLA Reader (edited by Sohail Inayatullah)

Serafino de Simone – “Causal Layered Analysis: a cookbook approach”

Scenario Planning

Explore potential futures for your organisation Test strategy Risk management Build new strategy Find the blue ocean Build a shared view of the future operating environment and what needs to be monitored Scenario Planning

Explore potential futures for your organisation

Test strategy

Risk management

Build new strategy

Find the blue ocean

Build a shared view of the future operating environment and what needs to be monitored

Scenario Planning – Types Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Inductive Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Deductive Official Future Alternative scenario Incremental Vision Normative Adapted from Ged Davis, Scenarios as a tool for the 21 st century, Shell International, 2002

Basic Scenario Process Adapted from GBN 2004 Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertainties Pre-determined elements Stage 3: Synthesize Scenario framework Scenarios Stage 4: Act Implications Strategic agenda Stage 5: Monitor Leading indicators Monitoring system

Basic Scenario Process Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertainties Pre-determined elements Stage 3: Synthesize Scenario framework Scenarios Stage 4: Act Implications Strategic agenda Stage 5: Monitor Leading indicators Monitoring system Adapted from GBN 2004 Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Define the decision. Involve people.

Basic Scenario Process Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Stage 3: Synthesize Scenario framework Scenarios Stage 4: Act Implications Strategic agenda Stage 5: Monitor Leading indicators Monitoring system Adapted from GBN 2004 Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertainties Pre-determined elements Use your trends and emerging issues analysis here.

Basic Scenario Process Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertainties Pre-determined elements Stage 4: Act Implications Strategic agenda Stage 5: Monitor Leading indicators Monitoring system Adapted from GBN 2004 Stage 3: Synthesize Scenario framework and scenarios Processes that involve people to build a shared view of the future; use CLA here.

Basic Scenario Process Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertainties Pre-determined elements Stage 3: Synthesize Scenario framework Scenarios Stage 5: Monitor Leading indicators Monitoring system Adapted from GBN 2004 Stage 4: Act Implications Strategic agenda Consider options. Make decisions and document them in plans.

Basic Scenario Process Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertainties Pre-determined elements Stage 3: Synthesize Scenario framework Scenarios Stage 4: Act Implications Strategic agenda Adapted from GBN 2004 Stage 5: Monitor Leading indicators Monitoring system Track progress and early warning signals.

The problem you are dealing with is not central to your organisational strategy and/or your problem and solution are clear. The outcome is largely predetermined due to internal or external forces. The leadership wants to maintain the status quo. There is too much urgency to step back for a reflective and creative conversation. Your desired outcomes are poorly aligned with your dedicated resources. Scenario Planning – When Not to Use GBN, What if: the art of scenario thinking for non-profits, 2004

The problem you are dealing with is not central to your organisational strategy and/or your problem and solution are clear.

The outcome is largely predetermined due to internal or external forces.

The leadership wants to maintain the status quo.

There is too much urgency to step back for a reflective and creative conversation.

Your desired outcomes are poorly aligned with your dedicated resources.

You are dealing with a strategic issue and the solution is unclear. You are working in a highly uncertain environment. There is leadership support for the scenario thinking process. Your organisation is open to change and dialogue. You can attract the resources necessary for a successful initiative. Scenario Planning – When to Use GBN, What if: the art of scenario thinking for non-profits, 2004

You are dealing with a strategic issue and the solution is unclear.

You are working in a highly uncertain environment.

There is leadership support for the scenario thinking process.

Your organisation is open to change and dialogue.

You can attract the resources necessary for a successful initiative.

Two classics: Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View Kees vander Heijden, Scenario Planning: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Scenario Planning - References

Two classics:

Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View

Kees vander Heijden, Scenario Planning: The Art of Strategic Conversation.

Exercise 3: Step 2

Bringing it altogether: Strategic Foresight

Strategic foresight is not a mainstream term in tertiary education. Decision makers will need to be educated about its purpose, its nature and its benefits. Strategic Foresight

Strategic foresight is not a mainstream term in tertiary education.

Decision makers will need to be educated about its purpose, its nature and its benefits.

Strategic Decision Makers

Strategic Foresight takes time to support and develop. Strategic Foresight is buried by organisational group think, so specific processes need to be put in place to nurture it. Strategic Foresight

Strategic Foresight takes time to support and develop.

Strategic Foresight is buried by organisational group think, so specific processes need to be put in place to nurture it.

It’s also buried by the busyness syndrome. If you want to change the way you do strategy in your organisation, you have to move beyond busyness. This takes time. Strategic Foresight

It’s also buried by the busyness syndrome.

If you want to change the way you do strategy in your organisation, you have to move beyond busyness.

This takes time.

Strategic Foresight can’t be measured using traditional metrics (the value of foresight is only apparent in hindsight). And, value will need to be defined. Strategic Foresight

Strategic Foresight can’t be measured using traditional metrics (the value of foresight is only apparent in hindsight).

And, value will need to be defined.

Possible value: better plans (shorter, clearer, accepted and used) measuring what matters, not what you have the data for beyond data driven decision making (people) improving the quality of information and thinking that goes into strategic decision making innovation – new products/ideas (blue ocean) better understanding of the external environment and how it might develop Strategic Foresight

Possible value:

better plans (shorter, clearer, accepted and used)

measuring what matters, not what you have the data for

beyond data driven decision making (people)

improving the quality of information and thinking that goes into strategic decision making

innovation – new products/ideas (blue ocean)

better understanding of the external environment and how it might develop

Quick assessment of the issue Which key questions need answering? What's over the horizon? What's really going on? How might the future unfold? What are others doing? Where are we now? How could we respond? What shall we do? How might we do it? What do we do right now ? Ask Simple Questions Shaping Tomorrow, 2007

Quick assessment of the issue

Which key questions need answering?

What's over the horizon?

What's really going on?

How might the future unfold?

What are others doing?

Where are we now?

How could we respond?

What shall we do?

How might we do it?

What do we do right now ?

Take the future into account when making decisions about the future. It is possible. Strategic Foresight

Take the future into account when making decisions about the future. It is possible.

Institutions need to ensure that their activities are: relevant to the market financially viable organisationally sustainable high quality And…meaningful to staff? What’s the point?

Institutions need to ensure that their activities are:

relevant to the market

financially viable

organisationally sustainable

high quality

And…meaningful to staff?

But…are we too late? Party Pray Pioneer If you don’t care about the future of your organisation, who will?

Back to Work Using futures thinking and tools improves our decision-making and our lives , on a personal, organisation, and community/social and global level … but, building the future into strategy development and implementation requires…. an enlightened CEO and upper management that sees the need for this sort of thinking . This, unfortunately, remains the small minority of situations. Andy Hines, 2002

Using futures thinking and tools improves our decision-making and our lives , on a personal, organisation, and community/social and global level … but, building the future into strategy development and implementation requires…. an enlightened CEO and upper management that sees the need for this sort of thinking . This, unfortunately, remains the small minority of situations.

Andy Hines, 2002

Are you busy with the right things? Are your values at work? Are you trapped in the data smog? Are you being a good ancestor? What can you do?

Are you busy with the right things?

Are your values at work?

Are you trapped in the data smog?

Are you being a good ancestor?

Exercise 4: Back to Work

Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, Foresight International ( http://www.foresightinternational.com.au ) University Futures ( http://www.universityfutures.org ) Peter Bishop and Andy Hines, Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight Presentation will be available at: http://www.slideshare.net/mkconway General References

Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, Foresight International ( http://www.foresightinternational.com.au )

University Futures ( http://www.universityfutures.org )

Peter Bishop and Andy Hines, Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight

Presentation will be available at: http://www.slideshare.net/mkconway

If you don’t care about the future, who will? Your challenge

If you don’t care about the future, who will?

Questions? More information: http://www.thinkingfutures.net [email_address] Tel: 03 90169506 Skype: mkconway1