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Building a Strategic Foresight Capacity AAIR Forum, November 2007 Maree Conway
What epitaph do you want on your tombstone?
And why does it matter?
<ul><li>The impact of human activities on the planet is unmistakable and profound. </li></ul>A Civilisational Challenge
<ul><li>The impact of human activities on organisations is unmistakable and profound. </li></ul>An Organisational Challenge
 
Foresight Everyone has an  innate  foresight capacity to think about the future. We do it everyday, but usually we don’t r...
Foresight Foresight is the ability to take a forward view. It enables action to be taken today with reference to, and with...
Strategic Foresight Strategic foresight is the capacity that emerges in organisations when people whose foresight capaciti...
<ul><li>We implicitly expect continuity. </li></ul><ul><li>We trust data, but not our intuition. </li></ul><ul><li>We don’...
<ul><li>What’s your work environment like at the moment? </li></ul>But first…
Head down, bum up – so you miss what’s going on?  Don’t have time to think ?
Too many decisions to make, not enough time or information to make them properly?
<ul><li>Too many are still unhappy with, or don’t trust, or don’t feel aligned to, their world of work. People say that  t...
<ul><li>“ Managers who get caught in the trap of overwhelming demands become prisoners of routine. They do not have time t...
<ul><li>Most cases of overwhelming demands stem not from managers’ actual work situations but from how they deal with thos...
<ul><li>Failing to influence demands, just reacting to them (not questioning whether they can be re-shaped). </li></ul><ul...
<ul><li>Is it easier to be busy than set long term priorities? </li></ul><ul><li>Managers who complain about having too li...
<ul><li>Quick fixes </li></ul><ul><li>Short Term </li></ul><ul><li>Language </li></ul><ul><li>24/7 </li></ul><ul><li>Tinke...
<ul><li>I’m too busy dealing with today to think about the future. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>I can only focus on the urgent, n...
“ You want me to think about what!!!”
The Result? Our organisations will tend to be purposeless wastelands, populated by the perpetually busy and the inherently...
<ul><li>Tired </li></ul><ul><li>Disillusioned </li></ul><ul><li>Good people leave </li></ul><ul><li>Doing what’s expected,...
<ul><li>Tired </li></ul><ul><li>Disillusioned </li></ul><ul><li>Good people leave </li></ul><ul><li>Doing what’s expected,...
<ul><li>Think long term. </li></ul><ul><li>Take a long term view. </li></ul><ul><li>Have moved beyond the busyness syndrom...
Exercise 1
Developing Strategic Foresight
Development of Foresight Individual Organisation Social FROM TO TO
Development of Foresight Individual Organisation Social Consumed by busyness Obsessed with the short term Fixated on growt...
Development of Foresight Individual Organisation Social Consumed by busyness Obsessed with the short term Fixated on growt...
Development of Foresight Individual Organisation Social FROM TO TO
Levels Indicators Level 5 Social capacity for  foresight  as an  emergent property Long term thinking becomes a social nor...
Overt recognition and use Critical mass of people Value add is clear Benefit of change in society is clear Levels Indicato...
Development of Foresight
<ul><li>If you don’t care about the future, who will? </li></ul>But…are we too late? Party Pray Pioneer
<ul><li>The most fundamental work in the 21 st  Century for all persons, organizations and whole societies is to become co...
Strategic foresight...past, present and future
If you think strategic planning is the name of the game, think again!
<ul><li>The organisational ‘home’ of strategic foresight. </li></ul><ul><li>AKA futures thinking  </li></ul><ul><li>AKA Lo...
Strategic Decision Making
<ul><li>Documenting </li></ul><ul><li>Doing </li></ul><ul><li>Tracking </li></ul><ul><li>Reporting </li></ul>Strategic Pla...
<ul><li>Strategic plans that all look remarkably similar. </li></ul><ul><li>A planning process that is greeted with groans...
<ul><li>Internal  and  external </li></ul><ul><li>Important not urgent </li></ul><ul><li>Long term not short term </li></u...
<ul><li>What really matters? </li></ul><ul><li>Align the internal with the external </li></ul><ul><li>Build a shared view ...
The focus is people, not the plan.
<ul><li>Strategy is only sustainable through people. </li></ul><ul><li>Only people have a foresight capacity. </li></ul>Be...
<ul><li>Strategy without people is strategy without a future.  </li></ul>
<ul><li>Everybody has the innate capacity for foresight. </li></ul><ul><li>But, in organisational planning processes, that...
<ul><li>We tend to rely on the foresight of our leaders, and assume (hope) that their foresight is adequate. </li></ul><ul...
Big Picture Today (now )
Big Picture Today (now )
Big Picture Today (now )
Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View
Uncertainties Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View
Uncertainties Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View
Uncertainties Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Trends Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View
Uncertainties Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Trends Values Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View
Uncertainties Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Trends Values Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View
Big Picture Today (now )
Uncertainties Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Trends Values Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View
Futures ready strategy is flexible strategy that readies people in organisations to respond quickly and effectively to the...
<ul><li>The outlines of the 21st-century management model are already clear.  Decision-making will be more peer based ; th...
Exercise 2
Break
Building a Strategic Foresight Capacity AAIR Forum, November 2007 Maree Conway
Is this making sense?
How do you build futures ready strategy?
Using Futures Tools
<ul><li>Strategic thinking is not random. </li></ul><ul><li>It is directed towards a particular strategic space/decision t...
It’s about strategic thinking… Long term Divergent Incomplete information Beyond linear
<ul><li>Futures tools provide ways to think long term, to think strategically. </li></ul><ul><li>In your work sheets ( Exe...
<ul><li>Different tools for different needs </li></ul><ul><li>Different tools for different stages of strategy development...
<ul><li>Discover </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scanning, emerging issues, staff views, delphi, trend analysis, forecasting </li></...
Generic Foresight Process Copyright Joseph Voros, 2001
<ul><li>Environmental Scanning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Trend Analysis – what’s going on out there? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><l...
<ul><li>Overview of the process </li></ul><ul><li>How to do it </li></ul><ul><li>When to use it </li></ul>Dipping into Fut...
Exercise 3: Step 1
Environmental Scanning
Long-term TIME HORIZON Short-term <ul><li>Narrow SCOPE OF INFORMATION GATHERING Broad </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Adapted from C...
Organisation Industry Learning Gaming Funding Engagement Online Sustainability Vocational Imperative The External Environm...
Organisation Global Industry Technology Lifestyle Values Politics Economy Environment Demographics & generational change L...
Organisation Global Industry Technology Lifestyle Values Politics Economy Environment Demographics & generational change L...
Trends And Emerging Issues Emerging   Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Scientists...
Event Trend ( grouping of events) Driver ( moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature) Tra...
<ul><li>How do I see the world – what are my biases and blind spots? </li></ul><ul><li>How will I filter the information? ...
<ul><li>Must understand how we filter information and see the world before we can claim to be able to interpret that infor...
<ul><li>Scan to inform the strategic decision or scan to be able to ask questions (Choo 1998) </li></ul><ul><li>Use a scan...
<ul><li>Looking for trends, drivers and emerging issues related to strategic decision/space. </li></ul><ul><li>Need to ass...
<ul><li>Extrapolations of the past and present, not future facts </li></ul><ul><li>Counter-trends </li></ul><ul><li>Wildca...
<ul><li>Trends don’t tell you anything – someone has to interpret the trend for it to be meaningful. </li></ul><ul><li>Oth...
The more people involved in the interpretation process, the stronger the interpretation.
<ul><li>ES is about mainstream trends. </li></ul><ul><li>Emerging Issues is about what’s at the horizon, at the periphery....
<ul><li>Starts with a shift in values/perspectives –  need to search at the fringes </li></ul><ul><li>Emergence – people s...
<ul><li>Because emerging issues are weak, obscure, crazy, and fragile, good practical people usually ignore or ridicule th...
A global survey on emerging environmental issues  United Nations Environment Program, Global Environmental Outlook, 2000 w...
<ul><li>What information is out there? </li></ul><ul><li>Where do I look for it? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the major driv...
<ul><li>Map your relevant drivers/trends/issues </li></ul><ul><li>Do a cross impact analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Determine w...
<ul><li>Make use of metascanning services (eg Shaping Tomorrow), Tomorrow Project, lots of others. </li></ul><ul><li>Thing...
<ul><li>All the time. </li></ul><ul><li>Continuous process </li></ul><ul><li>Use to inform specific information needs, or ...
<ul><li>All the time </li></ul><ul><li>Continuous process </li></ul><ul><li>Particularly useful for challenging long held ...
<ul><li>Choo, CW,  Information Management for the Intelligent Organization , 1998. </li></ul><ul><li>DEFRA’s Horizon Scann...
Causal Layered Analysis
<ul><li>Tapping into people’s assumptions and worldviews about an issue. </li></ul><ul><li>Accepting diversity of opinion,...
<ul><li>Can be challenging. </li></ul><ul><li>Requires people to be open to other perspectives. </li></ul><ul><li>Can requ...
Litany Social   Causes Worldviews Myth/Metaphor What is visible and accepted, easily articulated, not questioned What is b...
<ul><li>Litany – what’s being said and by whom? </li></ul><ul><li>Drivers – what’s driving the litany? </li></ul><ul><li>W...
CLA Steps <ul><li>The layers are causally linked. A change in approach in one layer affects all other layers. </li></ul><u...
<ul><li>What future do we want? </li></ul><ul><li>What stories and myths describe that future? </li></ul><ul><li>What valu...
<ul><li>When you have strong, diverse views about an issue that is preventing you from making a needed change. </li></ul><...
<ul><li>Sohail Inayatullah,  www.metafuture.org   </li></ul><ul><li>The CLA Reader (edited by Sohail Inayatullah) </li></u...
Scenario Planning
<ul><li>Explore potential futures for your organisation </li></ul><ul><li>Test strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Risk management ...
Scenario Planning – Types Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Inductive Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Deductive...
Basic Scenario Process Adapted from GBN 2004 Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertaintie...
Basic Scenario Process Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertainties Pre-determined elements Stage 3: Synthesize Scenario framew...
Basic Scenario Process Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Stage 3: Synthesize Scenario framework Scenarios Stage 4: Ac...
Basic Scenario Process Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertainties Pre-determined eleme...
Basic Scenario Process Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertainties Pre-determined eleme...
Basic Scenario Process Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertainties Pre-determined eleme...
<ul><li>The problem you are dealing with is not central to your organisational strategy and/or your problem and solution a...
<ul><li>You are dealing with a strategic issue and the solution is unclear. </li></ul><ul><li>You are working in a highly ...
<ul><li>Two classics: </li></ul><ul><li>Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View </li></ul><ul><li>Kees vander Heijden, Sc...
Exercise 3: Step 2
Bringing it altogether: Strategic Foresight
<ul><li>Strategic foresight is not a mainstream term in tertiary education. </li></ul><ul><li>Decision makers will need to...
Strategic Decision Makers
<ul><li>Strategic Foresight takes  time  to support and develop. </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Foresight is buried by organi...
<ul><li>It’s also buried by the busyness syndrome. </li></ul><ul><li>If you want to change the way you do strategy in your...
<ul><li>Strategic Foresight can’t be measured using traditional metrics (the value of foresight is only apparent in hindsi...
<ul><li>Possible value: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>better plans (shorter, clearer, accepted and used) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><l...
<ul><li>Quick assessment of the issue </li></ul><ul><li>Which key questions need answering?   </li></ul><ul><li>What's ove...
<ul><li>Take the future into account when making decisions about the future. It is possible. </li></ul>Strategic Foresight
<ul><li>Institutions need to ensure that their activities are: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>relevant to the market </li></ul></ul...
But…are we too late? Party Pray Pioneer If you don’t care about the future of your  organisation, who will?
Back to Work <ul><li>Using futures thinking and tools improves our decision-making and our lives , on a personal, organisa...
<ul><li>Are you busy with the right things? </li></ul><ul><li>Are your values at work? </li></ul><ul><li>Are you trapped i...
Exercise 4: Back to Work
<ul><li>Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, Foresight International ( http://www.foresightinternational.com.au )  </li></ul...
<ul><li>If you don’t care about the future, who will? </li></ul>Your challenge
Questions? More information: http://www.thinkingfutures.net [email_address] Tel: 03 90169506 Skype: mkconway1
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Building A Strategic Foresight Capacity

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An overview of strategic foresight, and several futures tools that can be used to build a strategic foresight capacity. Presentation at AAIR Forum, Sydney, November 2007. It was a hand-on workshop, so there are slides with 'exercise' on them that relate to the practical work at the workshop.

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  • Transcript of "Building A Strategic Foresight Capacity"

    1. 1. Building a Strategic Foresight Capacity AAIR Forum, November 2007 Maree Conway
    2. 2. What epitaph do you want on your tombstone?
    3. 3. And why does it matter?
    4. 4. <ul><li>The impact of human activities on the planet is unmistakable and profound. </li></ul>A Civilisational Challenge
    5. 5. <ul><li>The impact of human activities on organisations is unmistakable and profound. </li></ul>An Organisational Challenge
    6. 7. Foresight Everyone has an innate foresight capacity to think about the future. We do it everyday, but usually we don’t recognise it. To develop an individual foresight capacity, we first have to recognise that we have it, and that we need to use it.
    7. 8. Foresight Foresight is the ability to take a forward view. It enables action to be taken today with reference to, and within the context of, the future.
    8. 9. Strategic Foresight Strategic foresight is the capacity that emerges in organisations when people whose foresight capacities are overt , work together to build strategic processes that take a long view .
    9. 10. <ul><li>We implicitly expect continuity. </li></ul><ul><li>We trust data, but not our intuition. </li></ul><ul><li>We don’t think holistically from a systems perspective. </li></ul><ul><li>It is politically incorrect to suggest that the future is not rosy. </li></ul><ul><li>We hold unquestioned assumptions about the way we see the world . </li></ul><ul><li>We have closed minds. </li></ul>So why is this not the norm?
    10. 11. <ul><li>What’s your work environment like at the moment? </li></ul>But first…
    11. 12. Head down, bum up – so you miss what’s going on? Don’t have time to think ?
    12. 13. Too many decisions to make, not enough time or information to make them properly?
    13. 14. <ul><li>Too many are still unhappy with, or don’t trust, or don’t feel aligned to, their world of work. People say that their lives and organisations lack purpose , they don’t really trust leaders, and they feel their values – what’s really important to them in life – are too often at odds with what they do at work. They don’t feel listened to and don’t feel decisions are being made with the “long view ”. </li></ul><ul><li>(Fabian Dattner) </li></ul>Something’s Missing?
    14. 15. <ul><li>“ Managers who get caught in the trap of overwhelming demands become prisoners of routine. They do not have time to notice opportunities. Their habituated work prevents them from taking the first necessary step toward harnessing willpower: developing the capacity to dream an idea into existence and transforming it into a concrete existence .” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Heike Bruch & Sumantra Ghoshal, A Bias for Action: How Effective Managers Harness Their Willpower, Achieve Results, and Stop Wasting Time, HBSP, 2004 </li></ul></ul>The Trap of Overwhelming Demands
    15. 16. <ul><li>Most cases of overwhelming demands stem not from managers’ actual work situations but from how they deal with those situations: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>you can never find time for the important things </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>you feel under constant pressure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>you think you are indispensible </li></ul></ul>The Trap of Overwhelming Demands
    16. 17. <ul><li>Failing to influence demands, just reacting to them (not questioning whether they can be re-shaped). </li></ul><ul><li>Am I busy with the right things? </li></ul>The Trap of Overwhelming Demands
    17. 18. <ul><li>Is it easier to be busy than set long term priorities? </li></ul><ul><li>Managers who complain about having too little time often thrive on the sense of importance that busyness generates. </li></ul>And…
    18. 19. <ul><li>Quick fixes </li></ul><ul><li>Short Term </li></ul><ul><li>Language </li></ul><ul><li>24/7 </li></ul><ul><li>Tinkering with the machine, never considering whether you need a new one </li></ul><ul><li>Unhealthy </li></ul>Busyness Syndrome
    19. 20. <ul><li>I’m too busy dealing with today to think about the future. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>I can only focus on the urgent, not the important. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>I can only think about what’s on my desk, not what’s going on out there. </li></ul></ul>The impact of the busyness syndrome
    20. 21. “ You want me to think about what!!!”
    21. 22. The Result? Our organisations will tend to be purposeless wastelands, populated by the perpetually busy and the inherently unhappy . Stephen Johnson, What do you do for a living, 2007
    22. 23. <ul><li>Tired </li></ul><ul><li>Disillusioned </li></ul><ul><li>Good people leave </li></ul><ul><li>Doing what’s expected, nothing more </li></ul>Tragic vs Triumphant <ul><li>Aligned to articulated belief system </li></ul><ul><li>Motivating sense of purpose </li></ul><ul><li>Core values supported by behaviour </li></ul>
    23. 24. <ul><li>Tired </li></ul><ul><li>Disillusioned </li></ul><ul><li>Good people leave </li></ul><ul><li>Doing what’s expected, nothing more </li></ul>Tragic vs Triumphant <ul><li>Aligned to articulated belief system </li></ul><ul><li>Motivating sense of purpose </li></ul><ul><li>Core values supported by behaviour </li></ul>External focus Internal focus
    24. 25. <ul><li>Think long term. </li></ul><ul><li>Take a long term view. </li></ul><ul><li>Have moved beyond the busyness syndrome. </li></ul><ul><li>Have a strategic foresight capacity. </li></ul>Triumphant Organisations
    25. 26. Exercise 1
    26. 27. Developing Strategic Foresight
    27. 28. Development of Foresight Individual Organisation Social FROM TO TO
    28. 29. Development of Foresight Individual Organisation Social Consumed by busyness Obsessed with the short term Fixated on growth as strategic driver FROM TO TO BUT…. BUT…. BUT….
    29. 30. Development of Foresight Individual Organisation Social Consumed by busyness Obsessed with the short term Fixated on growth as strategic driver Individual Foresight Long term thinking – strategic foresight Focus on Sustainability as strategic driver FROM TO TO BUT…. BUT…. BUT…. NEED NEED NEED
    30. 31. Development of Foresight Individual Organisation Social FROM TO TO
    31. 32. Levels Indicators Level 5 Social capacity for foresight as an emergent property Long term thinking becomes a social norm Level 4 Futures concepts and ideas enable a futures discourse to develop Foresight routinely applied in most organisations Level 3 Futures tools and methodologies increase analytical power Widespread use of standard foresight tools and methods Level 2 People in organisations begin to talk about and use futures processes, projects and structures in their work Futures concepts and ideas become influential via discourse Level 1 Raw capacities and perceptions of the human brain-mind system Unreflective use of forward thinking in daily life of individuals
    32. 33. Overt recognition and use Critical mass of people Value add is clear Benefit of change in society is clear Levels Indicators Level 5 Long term thinking becomes a social norm Level 4 Foresight routinely applied in most organisations Level 3 Widespread use of standard foresight tools and methods Level 2 Futures concepts and ideas become influential via discourse Level 1 Unreflective use of forward thinking in daily life of individuals
    33. 34. Development of Foresight
    34. 35. <ul><li>If you don’t care about the future, who will? </li></ul>But…are we too late? Party Pray Pioneer
    35. 36. <ul><li>The most fundamental work in the 21 st Century for all persons, organizations and whole societies is to become conscious architects and intentional co-creators of new ways of living that truly fit the unique conditions that are emerging in the 21 st Century. </li></ul>No… Ruben Nelson Foresight Canada
    36. 37. Strategic foresight...past, present and future
    37. 38. If you think strategic planning is the name of the game, think again!
    38. 39. <ul><li>The organisational ‘home’ of strategic foresight. </li></ul><ul><li>AKA futures thinking </li></ul><ul><li>AKA Long term thinking </li></ul>Strategic Thinking
    39. 40. Strategic Decision Making
    40. 41. <ul><li>Documenting </li></ul><ul><li>Doing </li></ul><ul><li>Tracking </li></ul><ul><li>Reporting </li></ul>Strategic Planning
    41. 42. <ul><li>Strategic plans that all look remarkably similar. </li></ul><ul><li>A planning process that is greeted with groans rather than glee. </li></ul><ul><li>Workshops where you can’t escape the work waiting back at the office rather than thinking strategically. </li></ul>But…right now…
    42. 43. <ul><li>Internal and external </li></ul><ul><li>Important not urgent </li></ul><ul><li>Long term not short term </li></ul><ul><li>Sustainable not a quick fix </li></ul><ul><li>Meaningful not a chore </li></ul><ul><li>Authentic input not lip service </li></ul><ul><li>Think differently… </li></ul>What needs to change?
    43. 44. <ul><li>What really matters? </li></ul><ul><li>Align the internal with the external </li></ul><ul><li>Build a shared view of the future </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on the long term to strengthen decision making today </li></ul><ul><li>And only then, write a good plan. </li></ul>So, in strategy
    44. 45. The focus is people, not the plan.
    45. 46. <ul><li>Strategy is only sustainable through people. </li></ul><ul><li>Only people have a foresight capacity. </li></ul>Because…
    46. 47. <ul><li>Strategy without people is strategy without a future. </li></ul>
    47. 48. <ul><li>Everybody has the innate capacity for foresight. </li></ul><ul><li>But, in organisational planning processes, that capacity is often not tapped and gets buried by busy work. </li></ul>Strategic Foresight
    48. 49. <ul><li>We tend to rely on the foresight of our leaders, and assume (hope) that their foresight is adequate. </li></ul><ul><li>Remember the wisdom of crowds . </li></ul>Strategic Foresight
    49. 50. Big Picture Today (now )
    50. 51. Big Picture Today (now )
    51. 52. Big Picture Today (now )
    52. 53. Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View
    53. 54. Uncertainties Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View
    54. 55. Uncertainties Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View
    55. 56. Uncertainties Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Trends Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View
    56. 57. Uncertainties Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Trends Values Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View
    57. 58. Uncertainties Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Trends Values Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View
    58. 59. Big Picture Today (now )
    59. 60. Uncertainties Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Trends Values Big Picture Today (now) Long Picture Future View
    60. 61. Futures ready strategy is flexible strategy that readies people in organisations to respond quickly and effectively to the challenges and uncertainties of the future.
    61. 62. <ul><li>The outlines of the 21st-century management model are already clear. Decision-making will be more peer based ; the tools of creativity will be widely distributed in organizations. Ideas will compete on an equal footing. Strategies will be built from the bottom up . Power will be a function of competence rather than of position. In terms of the future of management, we’re at the beginning of what will be a fairly long journey . You can see some of the pieces starting to come together, but we’re not there yet.” </li></ul>It’s still changing… Gary Hamel, The Future of Management, 2007
    62. 63. Exercise 2
    63. 64. Break
    64. 65. Building a Strategic Foresight Capacity AAIR Forum, November 2007 Maree Conway
    65. 66. Is this making sense?
    66. 67. How do you build futures ready strategy?
    67. 68. Using Futures Tools
    68. 69. <ul><li>Strategic thinking is not random. </li></ul><ul><li>It is directed towards a particular strategic space/decision that needs to be made… </li></ul><ul><li>… or towards testing the validity of existing strategy in rapidly changing external environments. </li></ul>It’s about strategic thinking…
    69. 70. It’s about strategic thinking… Long term Divergent Incomplete information Beyond linear
    70. 71. <ul><li>Futures tools provide ways to think long term, to think strategically. </li></ul><ul><li>In your work sheets ( Exercise 3: Step 1 ), note down as we work through these tools how they might be useful for your organisation. </li></ul>Futures Tools
    71. 72. <ul><li>Different tools for different needs </li></ul><ul><li>Different tools for different stages of strategy development </li></ul><ul><li>How do you decide? </li></ul>Using Futures Tools
    72. 73. <ul><li>Discover </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scanning, emerging issues, staff views, delphi, trend analysis, forecasting </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Think </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Causal layered analysis, scenarios, visioning, backcasting </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Embed </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Strategy development processes and practices, reporting, sharing, collaborating </li></ul></ul>Futures Tools
    73. 74. Generic Foresight Process Copyright Joseph Voros, 2001
    74. 75. <ul><li>Environmental Scanning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Trend Analysis – what’s going on out there? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emerging Issues Analysis – what’s happening at the edges </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Causal Layered Analysis – building shared views </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario Planning – creating preferred futures </li></ul>Dipping into Futures
    75. 76. <ul><li>Overview of the process </li></ul><ul><li>How to do it </li></ul><ul><li>When to use it </li></ul>Dipping into Futures
    76. 77. Exercise 3: Step 1
    77. 78. Environmental Scanning
    78. 79. Long-term TIME HORIZON Short-term <ul><li>Narrow SCOPE OF INFORMATION GATHERING Broad </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Adapted from Choo, Information Management for the Intelligent Organization, 1998 </li></ul></ul>Where environmental scanning fits… Competitor Intelligence understanding the nature of our competitors and their likely responses to change Competitive Intelligence understanding how our competitors interact with the business and market environment in which they operate Business Intelligence understanding the present and future environments with a focus on future competitive environments Environmental Scanning developing a broad understanding of the external environment Social Intelligence understanding how Australia uses its intelligence (knowledge industry and information networks) to meet its developmental challenges Future View building a long-term foresight view about the future of the planet
    79. 80. Organisation Industry Learning Gaming Funding Engagement Online Sustainability Vocational Imperative The External Environment??
    80. 81. Organisation Global Industry Technology Lifestyle Values Politics Economy Environment Demographics & generational change Learning Gaming Funding Engagement Online Sustainability Vocational Imperative The External Environment Globalisation
    81. 82. Organisation Global Industry Technology Lifestyle Values Politics Economy Environment Demographics & generational change Learning Gaming Funding Engagement Online Sustainability Vocational Imperative The External Environment Globalisation Wildcard Wildcard Wildcard Wildcard
    82. 83. Trends And Emerging Issues Emerging Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals Government Institutions Few cases, local focus Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers Innovators Early adopters Late Adopters Late Majority Laggards Today Look on the fringe (weird and whacky!) Worldview issues will affect uptake at this stage – “I don’t believe that!”
    83. 84. Event Trend ( grouping of events) Driver ( moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature) Traffic jams Increasing mobility Function of cities What is the counter trend? What is the wildcard?
    84. 85. <ul><li>How do I see the world – what are my biases and blind spots? </li></ul><ul><li>How will I filter the information? What will I trust and what will I reject? </li></ul><ul><li>How will I analyse the information for my context? </li></ul><ul><li>How will I report my findings so they are accepted as credible? </li></ul>Environmental Scanning
    85. 86. <ul><li>Must understand how we filter information and see the world before we can claim to be able to interpret that information. </li></ul><ul><li>Our filters mean we miss things that might be important – because we just don’t see them. </li></ul>In here
    86. 87. <ul><li>Scan to inform the strategic decision or scan to be able to ask questions (Choo 1998) </li></ul><ul><li>Use a scanning frame to filter information </li></ul><ul><ul><li>STEEP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Integral </li></ul></ul>Out there
    87. 88. <ul><li>Looking for trends, drivers and emerging issues related to strategic decision/space. </li></ul><ul><li>Need to assess their likelihood and potential impact for that space, and consequent decisions to be made. </li></ul><ul><li>And, need to consider how trends might impact each other (scenarios are good for this) </li></ul>Environmental Scanning
    88. 89. <ul><li>Extrapolations of the past and present, not future facts </li></ul><ul><li>Counter-trends </li></ul><ul><li>Wildcards </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertain future trajectories </li></ul><ul><li>What assumptions underpin your thinking? </li></ul>Using Trends But don’t get lost in the data smog!
    89. 90. <ul><li>Trends don’t tell you anything – someone has to interpret the trend for it to be meaningful. </li></ul><ul><li>Otherwise you are engaged in trend spotting as opposed to trend analysis. </li></ul>Using Trends
    90. 91. The more people involved in the interpretation process, the stronger the interpretation.
    91. 92. <ul><li>ES is about mainstream trends. </li></ul><ul><li>Emerging Issues is about what’s at the horizon, at the periphery. </li></ul><ul><li>Realm of the weird and the whacky, so difficult to present with credibility. </li></ul>Emerging Issues Analysis
    92. 93. <ul><li>Starts with a shift in values/perspectives – need to search at the fringes </li></ul><ul><li>Emergence – people start to talk about it, but a minority – easier to influence now </li></ul><ul><li>Champion – look for the thought leaders and rebels </li></ul><ul><li>Defining event – brings the issue to public attention – morphs into a trend/harder to shape </li></ul>Emerging Issues Analysis
    93. 94. <ul><li>Because emerging issues are weak, obscure, crazy, and fragile, good practical people usually ignore or ridicule them. Since these “useful” ideas are not part of their commonsense, people conclude they are nonsense. </li></ul><ul><li>And this fact led me to formulate Dator’s Second Law of the Future. Namely, “Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous”. </li></ul>Emerging Issues Analysis Jim Dator, US Futurist
    94. 95. A global survey on emerging environmental issues United Nations Environment Program, Global Environmental Outlook, 2000 www.grida.no/geo2000/english/0224.htm
    95. 96. <ul><li>What information is out there? </li></ul><ul><li>Where do I look for it? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the major driving forces? </li></ul><ul><li>What big surprises are on the horizon? </li></ul><ul><li>What might be significant for us that others don’t yet see? </li></ul><ul><li>Where do I need to look to balance my blind spots? </li></ul>ES – How To
    96. 97. <ul><li>Map your relevant drivers/trends/issues </li></ul><ul><li>Do a cross impact analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Determine which ones are critical, mainstream or emerging </li></ul><ul><li>Do more research </li></ul><ul><li>Consider implications for your organisation </li></ul><ul><li>Use that as input into prospection processes </li></ul>ES – How to
    97. 98. <ul><li>Make use of metascanning services (eg Shaping Tomorrow), Tomorrow Project, lots of others. </li></ul><ul><li>Things to consider: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Who will scan (central or dispersed) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Storing your scanning hits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Making them accessible </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reporting findings (reports, emails, presentations, meetings, newsletter) </li></ul></ul>ES – How To
    98. 99. <ul><li>All the time. </li></ul><ul><li>Continuous process </li></ul><ul><li>Use to inform specific information needs, or to seek out information that is generally related to strategic needs. </li></ul>Trends – When to Use
    99. 100. <ul><li>All the time </li></ul><ul><li>Continuous process </li></ul><ul><li>Particularly useful for challenging long held assumptions about how things will be. </li></ul><ul><li>Good for ‘what if’ questions. </li></ul>Emerging Issues – When to use
    100. 101. <ul><li>Choo, CW, Information Management for the Intelligent Organization , 1998. </li></ul><ul><li>DEFRA’s Horizon Scanning Strategy for Science (2002) http://horizonscanning . defra .gov.uk </li></ul><ul><li>UK Government Foresight Program’s Horizon Scanning Centre http://www.foresight.gov.uk/HORIZON_SCANNING_CENTRE/index.html </li></ul>ES – Some Good References
    101. 102. Causal Layered Analysis
    102. 103. <ul><li>Tapping into people’s assumptions and worldviews about an issue. </li></ul><ul><li>Accepting diversity of opinion, and surfacing that opinion. </li></ul><ul><li>Building a shared view of a way forward. </li></ul>Causal Layered Analysis
    103. 104. <ul><li>Can be challenging. </li></ul><ul><li>Requires people to be open to other perspectives. </li></ul><ul><li>Can require compromise. </li></ul>Causal Layered Analysis
    104. 105. Litany Social Causes Worldviews Myth/Metaphor What is visible and accepted, easily articulated, not questioned What is beneath the surface that drives the litany, often contested when articulated.
    105. 106. <ul><li>Litany – what’s being said and by whom? </li></ul><ul><li>Drivers – what’s driving the litany? </li></ul><ul><li>Worldviews – whose worldview is dominant? Who is being ‘othered’? </li></ul><ul><li>Myth/Metaphor/Story – what underpins the worldview? </li></ul>Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Step 1 - Understanding
    106. 107. CLA Steps <ul><li>The layers are causally linked. A change in approach in one layer affects all other layers. </li></ul><ul><li>No layer is more privileged – each layer represents what has been surfaced about a particular way of seeing the issue. </li></ul>
    107. 108. <ul><li>What future do we want? </li></ul><ul><li>What stories and myths describe that future? </li></ul><ul><li>What values do we want to underpin that future? </li></ul><ul><li>How do we start to create that future? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Who? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What can we do now? </li></ul>CLA Step 2 - Rebuilding
    108. 109. <ul><li>When you have strong, diverse views about an issue that is preventing you from making a needed change. </li></ul><ul><li>When there are elements of hostility in interactions about an issue. </li></ul><ul><li>When you need to develop a shared view of an issue. </li></ul>CLA – when to use
    109. 110. <ul><li>Sohail Inayatullah, www.metafuture.org </li></ul><ul><li>The CLA Reader (edited by Sohail Inayatullah) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Serafino de Simone – “Causal Layered Analysis: a cookbook approach” </li></ul></ul>CLA - References
    110. 111. Scenario Planning
    111. 112. <ul><li>Explore potential futures for your organisation </li></ul><ul><li>Test strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Risk management </li></ul><ul><li>Build new strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Find the blue ocean </li></ul><ul><li>Build a shared view of the future operating environment and what needs to be monitored </li></ul>Scenario Planning
    112. 113. Scenario Planning – Types Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Inductive Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Deductive Official Future Alternative scenario Incremental Vision Normative Adapted from Ged Davis, Scenarios as a tool for the 21 st century, Shell International, 2002
    113. 114. Basic Scenario Process Adapted from GBN 2004 Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertainties Pre-determined elements Stage 3: Synthesize Scenario framework Scenarios Stage 4: Act Implications Strategic agenda Stage 5: Monitor Leading indicators Monitoring system
    114. 115. Basic Scenario Process Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertainties Pre-determined elements Stage 3: Synthesize Scenario framework Scenarios Stage 4: Act Implications Strategic agenda Stage 5: Monitor Leading indicators Monitoring system Adapted from GBN 2004 Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Define the decision. Involve people.
    115. 116. Basic Scenario Process Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Stage 3: Synthesize Scenario framework Scenarios Stage 4: Act Implications Strategic agenda Stage 5: Monitor Leading indicators Monitoring system Adapted from GBN 2004 Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertainties Pre-determined elements Use your trends and emerging issues analysis here.
    116. 117. Basic Scenario Process Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertainties Pre-determined elements Stage 4: Act Implications Strategic agenda Stage 5: Monitor Leading indicators Monitoring system Adapted from GBN 2004 Stage 3: Synthesize Scenario framework and scenarios Processes that involve people to build a shared view of the future; use CLA here.
    117. 118. Basic Scenario Process Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertainties Pre-determined elements Stage 3: Synthesize Scenario framework Scenarios Stage 5: Monitor Leading indicators Monitoring system Adapted from GBN 2004 Stage 4: Act Implications Strategic agenda Consider options. Make decisions and document them in plans.
    118. 119. Basic Scenario Process Stage 1: Orient Interviews Focal issue Stage 2: Explore Critical uncertainties Pre-determined elements Stage 3: Synthesize Scenario framework Scenarios Stage 4: Act Implications Strategic agenda Adapted from GBN 2004 Stage 5: Monitor Leading indicators Monitoring system Track progress and early warning signals.
    119. 120. <ul><li>The problem you are dealing with is not central to your organisational strategy and/or your problem and solution are clear. </li></ul><ul><li>The outcome is largely predetermined due to internal or external forces. </li></ul><ul><li>The leadership wants to maintain the status quo. </li></ul><ul><li>There is too much urgency to step back for a reflective and creative conversation. </li></ul><ul><li>Your desired outcomes are poorly aligned with your dedicated resources. </li></ul>Scenario Planning – When Not to Use GBN, What if: the art of scenario thinking for non-profits, 2004
    120. 121. <ul><li>You are dealing with a strategic issue and the solution is unclear. </li></ul><ul><li>You are working in a highly uncertain environment. </li></ul><ul><li>There is leadership support for the scenario thinking process. </li></ul><ul><li>Your organisation is open to change and dialogue. </li></ul><ul><li>You can attract the resources necessary for a successful initiative. </li></ul>Scenario Planning – When to Use GBN, What if: the art of scenario thinking for non-profits, 2004
    121. 122. <ul><li>Two classics: </li></ul><ul><li>Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View </li></ul><ul><li>Kees vander Heijden, Scenario Planning: The Art of Strategic Conversation. </li></ul>Scenario Planning - References
    122. 123. Exercise 3: Step 2
    123. 124. Bringing it altogether: Strategic Foresight
    124. 125. <ul><li>Strategic foresight is not a mainstream term in tertiary education. </li></ul><ul><li>Decision makers will need to be educated about its purpose, its nature and its benefits. </li></ul>Strategic Foresight
    125. 126. Strategic Decision Makers
    126. 127. <ul><li>Strategic Foresight takes time to support and develop. </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic Foresight is buried by organisational group think, so specific processes need to be put in place to nurture it. </li></ul>Strategic Foresight
    127. 128. <ul><li>It’s also buried by the busyness syndrome. </li></ul><ul><li>If you want to change the way you do strategy in your organisation, you have to move beyond busyness. </li></ul><ul><li>This takes time. </li></ul>Strategic Foresight
    128. 129. <ul><li>Strategic Foresight can’t be measured using traditional metrics (the value of foresight is only apparent in hindsight). </li></ul><ul><li>And, value will need to be defined. </li></ul>Strategic Foresight
    129. 130. <ul><li>Possible value: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>better plans (shorter, clearer, accepted and used) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>measuring what matters, not what you have the data for </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>beyond data driven decision making (people) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>improving the quality of information and thinking that goes into strategic decision making </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>innovation – new products/ideas (blue ocean) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>better understanding of the external environment and how it might develop </li></ul></ul>Strategic Foresight
    130. 131. <ul><li>Quick assessment of the issue </li></ul><ul><li>Which key questions need answering? </li></ul><ul><li>What's over the horizon? </li></ul><ul><li>What's really going on? </li></ul><ul><li>How might the future unfold? </li></ul><ul><li>What are others doing? </li></ul><ul><li>Where are we now? </li></ul><ul><li>How could we respond? </li></ul><ul><li>What shall we do? </li></ul><ul><li>How might we do it? </li></ul><ul><li>What do we do right now ?    </li></ul>Ask Simple Questions Shaping Tomorrow, 2007
    131. 132. <ul><li>Take the future into account when making decisions about the future. It is possible. </li></ul>Strategic Foresight
    132. 133. <ul><li>Institutions need to ensure that their activities are: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>relevant to the market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>financially viable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>organisationally sustainable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>high quality </li></ul></ul><ul><li>And…meaningful to staff? </li></ul>What’s the point?
    133. 134. But…are we too late? Party Pray Pioneer If you don’t care about the future of your organisation, who will?
    134. 135. Back to Work <ul><li>Using futures thinking and tools improves our decision-making and our lives , on a personal, organisation, and community/social and global level … but, building the future into strategy development and implementation requires…. an enlightened CEO and upper management that sees the need for this sort of thinking . This, unfortunately, remains the small minority of situations. </li></ul><ul><li>Andy Hines, 2002 </li></ul>
    135. 136. <ul><li>Are you busy with the right things? </li></ul><ul><li>Are your values at work? </li></ul><ul><li>Are you trapped in the data smog? </li></ul><ul><li>Are you being a good ancestor? </li></ul>What can you do?
    136. 137. Exercise 4: Back to Work
    137. 138. <ul><li>Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, Foresight International ( http://www.foresightinternational.com.au ) </li></ul><ul><li>University Futures ( http://www.universityfutures.org ) </li></ul><ul><li>Peter Bishop and Andy Hines, Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight </li></ul><ul><li>Presentation will be available at: http://www.slideshare.net/mkconway </li></ul>General References
    138. 139. <ul><li>If you don’t care about the future, who will? </li></ul>Your challenge
    139. 140. Questions? More information: http://www.thinkingfutures.net [email_address] Tel: 03 90169506 Skype: mkconway1
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