“The History
and Possible Futures of the Internet”
2013 Venture Summit “Hot Topics” Presentation
San Diego Venture Group
S...
The Forty Year Exponential
Growth in Traffic on the Internet
One
Trillion
Fold
Data Collected by Larry Roberts Copyright 2...
Birth of the Internet in Early 1970s Led to
Forty Years of Exponential Growth
Vint Cerf, Robert Kahn, Len Kleinrock, Larry...
The First NSFnet Backbone:
The National Shared Bandwidth = a Dial-Up Modem!
NSFNET 56 Kb/s Backbone (1986-8)
PSCPSCNCARNCA...
NCSA Mosaic
Led to the Modern Web World
100 Commercial
Licensees
Licensing
1992
NCSA Collage
1993
Open
Source
Source: Larr...
Then Came the Dot-Com Crash -
Creative Destruction of Capitalism
NASDAQ
Out of the Rubble
Google Brings Search to the Web
Over the Same Period
Facebook Leads the Rise of the Social Web
Remember the
“1 Millionth FB User” Party?
Growth by 1000-Fo...
The Scale of the Web Today:
“You Know What’s Cool?-a Billion”
• Facebook
– One Billion Active Users
• YouTube
– 4 Billion ...
Four Trends of the Future Internet
• Virtual Rooms
• Big Data
• Telepresence
• Global Brain
Towards Digital Wallpaper
Hubble Space Telescope Collage of 48 Frames
(30,000x 14,000 pixels) on Calit2’s Vroom
Qualcomm Institute’s 3D Immersive StarCAVE:
Enables Exploration of Digital Worlds
Connected at 50 Gb/s to Quartzite
30 HD
...
Cultural Heritage Visualization
in Chicago’s Electronic Visualization Lab’s CAVE2
Displayed is a 3D panorama of Luxor in E...
The Beginning of Virtual Rooms
Sharp Corp’s 156 60”LCDs for the 5D Miracle Tour at
the Hui Ten Bosch Theme Park in Nagasak...
Creating a Big Data Freeway System:
Use Optical Fiber with 1000x Shared Internet Speeds
NSF Has Awarded Prism@UCSD Optical...
Global Innovation Centers are Being Connected
with 10,000 Megabits/sec Clear Channel Lightpaths
Source: Maxine Brown, UIC ...
Telepresence Meeting
Using Digital Cinema 4k Streams
Lays
Technical
Basis for
Global
Streaming 4k
with JPEG
2000
Compressi...
Collaboration Between EVL’s CAVE2
and Calit2’s VROOM Over 10Gb Wavelength
Chicago
La Jolla
Source: NTT Sponsored ON*VECTOR...
The Future of the Planetary Computer
The Computing Power to Make a Single Google Search
Is More Than Was Used In Space & O...
Google Has Given the Author of “the Singularity is Near”
the Keys to the Planetary Computer
During the Next Decade We Will Witness
Silicon Supercomputers Surpass Human Brain Speed
ExaFLOP
PetaFLOP
Source: Ray Kurzw...
Reverse Engineering of the Brain
is Becoming a Reality
www.whitehouse.gov/infographics/brain-initiative
UC San Diego Creates
Center for Brain Activity Mapping
http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/feature/uc_san_diego_creates_center_for_br...
San Diego Venture Group; Venture Summit 2013; Smarr
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Larry Smarr, Founding Director of the California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology (Calit2), shares his presentation delivered at Venture Summit Friday, July 12, 2013

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San Diego Venture Group; Venture Summit 2013; Smarr

  1. 1. “The History and Possible Futures of the Internet” 2013 Venture Summit “Hot Topics” Presentation San Diego Venture Group San Diego, CA July 12, 2013 Dr. Larry Smarr Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology Harry E. Gruber Professor, Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering Jacobs School of Engineering, UCSD http://lsmarr.calit2.net
  2. 2. The Forty Year Exponential Growth in Traffic on the Internet One Trillion Fold Data Collected by Larry Roberts Copyright 2009 L.G. Roberts Fold Increase! www.packet.cc/Traffic.html
  3. 3. Birth of the Internet in Early 1970s Led to Forty Years of Exponential Growth Vint Cerf, Robert Kahn, Len Kleinrock, Larry Roberts http://www.uclabruin.com/30anniv.htm
  4. 4. The First NSFnet Backbone: The National Shared Bandwidth = a Dial-Up Modem! NSFNET 56 Kb/s Backbone (1986-8) PSCPSCNCARNCAR CTCCTC JVNCJVNC NCSANCSA PSCPSCNCARNCAR SDSCSDSC Slides from 1994 © CSC Vanguard Meeting with Larry Smarr.
  5. 5. NCSA Mosaic Led to the Modern Web World 100 Commercial Licensees Licensing 1992 NCSA Collage 1993 Open Source Source: Larry Smarr 1990
  6. 6. Then Came the Dot-Com Crash - Creative Destruction of Capitalism NASDAQ
  7. 7. Out of the Rubble Google Brings Search to the Web
  8. 8. Over the Same Period Facebook Leads the Rise of the Social Web Remember the “1 Millionth FB User” Party? Growth by 1000-Fold in Less Than 8 Years!
  9. 9. The Scale of the Web Today: “You Know What’s Cool?-a Billion” • Facebook – One Billion Active Users • YouTube – 4 Billion Hours of Video Watched Each Month • Google – Over One Billion Searches Every Day • Apple – 15 Billion Apps Downloaded Per Year • Smartphones – 1 Billion Active Users
  10. 10. Four Trends of the Future Internet • Virtual Rooms • Big Data • Telepresence • Global Brain
  11. 11. Towards Digital Wallpaper Hubble Space Telescope Collage of 48 Frames (30,000x 14,000 pixels) on Calit2’s Vroom
  12. 12. Qualcomm Institute’s 3D Immersive StarCAVE: Enables Exploration of Digital Worlds Connected at 50 Gb/s to Quartzite 30 HD Projectors! 15 Meyer Sound Speakers + Subwoofer Cluster with 30 Nvidia 5600 cards-60 GB Texture Memory Source: Tom DeFanti, Greg Dawe, Calit2 Passive Polarization-- Optimized the Polarization Separation and Minimized Attenuation
  13. 13. Cultural Heritage Visualization in Chicago’s Electronic Visualization Lab’s CAVE2 Displayed is a 3D panorama of Luxor in Egypt- Images were Created at Calit2 by Tom DeFanti and Dan Sandin
  14. 14. The Beginning of Virtual Rooms Sharp Corp’s 156 60”LCDs for the 5D Miracle Tour at the Hui Ten Bosch Theme Park in Nagasaki Opened April 29, 2011 http://sharp-world.com/corporate/news/110426.html
  15. 15. Creating a Big Data Freeway System: Use Optical Fiber with 1000x Shared Internet Speeds NSF Has Awarded Prism@UCSD Optical Switch Phil Papadopoulos, SDSC, Calit2, PI
  16. 16. Global Innovation Centers are Being Connected with 10,000 Megabits/sec Clear Channel Lightpaths Source: Maxine Brown, UIC and Robert Patterson, NCSA 100 Gbps Commercially Available Research on 1 Tbps; 50 Tbps By 2020
  17. 17. Telepresence Meeting Using Digital Cinema 4k Streams Lays Technical Basis for Global Streaming 4k with JPEG 2000 Compression ½ Gbit/sec 100 Times the Resolution of YouTube! 4k = 4000x2000 Pixels = 4xHD Keio University President Anzai UCSD Chancellor Fox Digital Cinema Sony NTT SGI Calit2@UCSD Auditorium
  18. 18. Collaboration Between EVL’s CAVE2 and Calit2’s VROOM Over 10Gb Wavelength Chicago La Jolla Source: NTT Sponsored ON*VECTOR Workshop at Calit2 March 6, 2013
  19. 19. The Future of the Planetary Computer The Computing Power to Make a Single Google Search Is More Than Was Used In Space & On Earth For the 11 Year, 17 Flight Apollo Program!For the 11 Year, 17 Flight Apollo Program! http://insidesearch.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-power-of-apollo-missions-in-single.html
  20. 20. Google Has Given the Author of “the Singularity is Near” the Keys to the Planetary Computer
  21. 21. During the Next Decade We Will Witness Silicon Supercomputers Surpass Human Brain Speed ExaFLOP PetaFLOP Source: Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near PetaFLOP Computational Capacity of the Human Brain— “I will Use a More Conservative Figure of 1016cps for Our Subsequent Discussions.”--Kurzweil
  22. 22. Reverse Engineering of the Brain is Becoming a Reality www.whitehouse.gov/infographics/brain-initiative
  23. 23. UC San Diego Creates Center for Brain Activity Mapping http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/feature/uc_san_diego_creates_center_for_brain_activity_mapping May 16, 2013 From left, Nick Spitzer, Ralph Greenspan, and Terry Sejnowski. Photos by Erik Jepsen/UC San Diego Publications
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