Wireless Nomadicity (FTTH 2014)

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"Is the Future of Wireless Wired? FTTX in Support of Nomadic Broadband Users", presented at the New World of Applications workshop at the FTTH Conference, Stockholm, February 2014

"Is the Future of Wireless Wired? FTTX in Support of Nomadic Broadband Users", presented at the New World of Applications workshop at the FTTH Conference, Stockholm, February 2014

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  • 1. IS THE FUTURE OF WIRELESS WIRED? FTTX IN SUPPORT OF NOMADIC BROADBAND USERS Marc Jadoul (@mjadoul) Stockholm, 18 February 2014 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 2. The trend has been that mobile was winning. It's now won. Eric Schmidt Executive Chairman, Google Source: http://mashable.com/2013/12/30/eric-schmidt-predictions-2014 2 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 3. MOBILE TRAFFIC KEEPS GROWING, WITH VIDEO PLAYING AN EVER MORE PROMINENT ROLE 21,500 PB Other Games & Apps Video 5,326 PB Music Browsing 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Strategy Analytics, Handset Data Traffic (2013) 3 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 2017
  • 4. MASLOW’S HIERARCHY REDEFINED SELFACTUALIZATION achieving one’s full potential & creativity SELF-ESTEEM prestige & feeling of accomplishment BELONGINGNESS & LOVE intimate relationships, friends SAFETY security, stability, safety PSYCHOLOGICAL food, water, shelter, warmth, … Source: http://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html 4 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 5. NEW USAGE PATTERNS CHALLENGE MOBILE NETWORKS 63% OF USERS SAY IT’S IMPORTANT TO BE CONNECTED AT ALL TIMES 26% OF 4G USERS CHECK SOCIAL MEDIA MORE THAN 10X A DAY 62% 58% OF USERS SAY MOBILE DATA SPEEDS ARE VERY IMPORTANT OF USERS SAY ALWAYS-ON CONNECTIVITY IS IMPORTANT FOR THEIR SOCIAL LIVES 25% 26% OF 4G USERS SPEND 3 OR MORE HOURS A DAY ON THE INTERNET EVERY DAY OF 4G USERS DOWNLOAD, UPLOAD, AND STREAM VIDEOS Sources: Yankee Group US Consumer Survey (2012), 4GEE Mobile Living Index & Orange Exposure (2013) 5 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 6. DEMAND FOR (DENSE) WIRELESS ACCESS IN PUBLIC PLACES IS RISING Sports stadium Train/bus station Airport Office Hospital Shopping mall Convention center High street School Hotel Supermarket Retail shop Multi Dweller Units House 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Average Mb/s per 10m2 Source: Ruckus Wireless (2012) 6 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 7. EVEN WITHIN THE HOME, MOBILE MULTIMEDIA IS BECOMING PERVASIVE 100% 90% 80% % OF USE INDOORS 100% 70% 90% 60% 80% 50% 70% 40% iPad iPhone Blackberry 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Outdoor mobile data usage 2015 2016 Indoor mobile data usage Source: Mobile Experts (2012), GigaOM (2012) 7 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 2017
  • 8. SMARTPHONES AND TABLETS TEND TO PLAY DIFFERENT ROLES Living room Living room Library School Other Work Friend’s house 67% 20% 22% Bedroom 53% 34% 58% Where do you access the internet on your SMARTPHONE ? 8% School 31% Home office Library 68% 65% Restaurant 51% 74% 75% In stores 49% Where do you access the internet on your TABLET? 12% 14% Outdoors 26% Friend’s house Public trarnsport 26% Home office 20% Car While traveling Kitchen 40% 10% Other 74% Bedroom 63% In stores Kitchen Work 60% Outdoors 72% 65% 48% 28% 18% 30% Restaurant Daily commute 15% 9% Daily commute Source: Forrester Research (2013) 8 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. While traveling Car Public transport
  • 9. NEED FOR DIFFERENT ‘MIXES’ OF MOBILITY, CAPACITY AND COVERAGE Full mobility Nomadic usage Mainly low bandwidth services Often high bandwidth services Macro coverage Small cells & Wi-Fi 9 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 10. NOMADIC VIDEO IS SOARING WITH A 73% CAGR 200,000 Home video users (premium content) 180,000 160,000 140,000 Nomadic video users (premium content) 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 Mobile video users (premium content) 40,000 20,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: The NPD Group (US, 2011) 10 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 2015
  • 11. NOMADIC BROADBAND ROLLOUT OPPORTUNITIES 11 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 12. DEFINING THE IDEAL NETWORK FOR WIRELESS NOMADS a wireless HetNet mixing 3G/4G macro cells, small cells and Wi-Fi automatic network discovery, selection and authentication, with seamless handover between cellular and Wi-Fi access a high-capacity, fiber-based mobile backhaul and transport network 12 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 13. FIBER+WIRELESS ULTRA-BROADBAND DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS Small Cell Backhaul Fiber + Copper/Cable to the Homespot/Enterprise Hotspot Fiber to the Streetspot 13 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 14. TWDM PON CURRENT FTTX TECHNOLOGIES CAN FULFILL GROWING BACKHAUL CAPACITY NEEDS Required downstream MBH capacity (Mb/s) 4,000 3,500 3,000 … (~40 Gb/s) Highest capacity site (3 collocated operators) Highest capacity site (1 operator) Capacity site (1 operator) Coverage site (1 operator) Public access small cell (1 operator) GPON 2,500 2,000 1,500 G.fast 1,000 (vectoring) 500 0 2011 VDSL2 (vectoring) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sources: Heavy Reading (2013), Alcatel-Lucent — data speeds may depend on loop and noise conditions 14 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 2017
  • 15. FTTX TECHNOLOGY FOR MOBILE BACKHAUL LEADS TO FASTER NETWORK MONETIZATION MONTHLY COST PER MBPS BY TECHNOLOGY T1/E1/DS3 copper Microwave radio Ethernet copper/fiber LOWER OPEX MBH WHOLESALE REVENUES POWERING PON CLOCK SYNC P2P VDSL BANDWIDTH BONDING RESIDENTIAL ULTRA-BB UBIQUITOUSLY AVAILABLE Sources: ABI Research (Western-Europe, 2013), Alcatel-Lucent 15 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
  • 16. CONCLUSION: WIRELESS AND WIRELINE ARE THE YIN AND YANG OF BROADBAND GROWTH WIRELESS DEVICES & APPS WIRELINE OFFLOAD & BACKHAUL 16 COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.