Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
MH370 & The Bayes Theory [autosaved]
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Introducing the official SlideShare app

Stunning, full-screen experience for iPhone and Android

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

MH370 & The Bayes Theory [autosaved]

7,960
views

Published on

This is an upgraded version of my earlier upload. This reemphasizes the fact that Bayesian theory will certainly enhance the chances of discovering the missing Malaysian flight MH370.

This is an upgraded version of my earlier upload. This reemphasizes the fact that Bayesian theory will certainly enhance the chances of discovering the missing Malaysian flight MH370.

Published in: Business

4 Comments
32 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • This presentation doesn't say much. Unattributed quotes, unexplained acronyms and technical terms, etc. all detract from the quality. The hilariously cringeworthy 'Gayesian' typo in the last slide will be the only thing I remember from this. The badly rescaled stock images really detract from the presentation; drop them all.
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • we have gold for sell,williamsoforismith@yahoo.com
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • Thank you. I only echoed the belief in hayes Theorem to lead to greater success in the search. I guess it is working slowly.
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • thanks Maslamani Ramasamy at sriday Edugroup just showing tracking jones and proble aprehensions, any way this issue is calm at the news that it has been hyzacked,but hy zackers should have just informed it would have not been so bothersome world community sanctions hyzac in case of serious indicscipline but women pregnant nursing mothers emmergency patioents should be immedaiately given due care
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
No Downloads
Views
Total Views
7,960
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
13
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
181
Comments
4
Likes
32
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. the flight MH 370 & Bayes theory Masilamani Ramasamy - a scientific management expert (misilamani@yahoo.com) Masilamani Ramasamy Consultant Trainer
  • 2. MH370 tracking
  • 3. Bayes' Theorem • also called, Bayes' law or Bayes' rule • based on probability theory, mathematics and Statistics • named after Thomas Bayes (/ˈbeɪz/ 1701–1761) • Bayes suggested the theorem to update beliefs • Significantly edited and updated by Richard Price • Bayes' theorem “is to the theory of probability what Pythagoras's theorem is to geometry” -Harold Jeffreys
  • 4. probability theory rooted in, • the science of Statistics • the science of Mathematics • the probability of an event occurring • the analysis of random phenomena
  • 5. statistical theory gives, –ways of comparing statistical procedures –a best possible procedure for statistical problems –guidance on the choice between alternative procedures Passenger Identities Number China/Taiwan 154 Malaysia 38 India 5 Indonesia 7 Australia 6 France 4 USA 3 New Zealand 2 Canada 2 Russia 1 Italy 1 Netherlands 1 Austria 1
  • 6. statistical theory covers – Statistical decision methods and problems – Statistical inferences or conclusions – actions and deductions To satisfy the basic principles stated for these different approaches. STATISTICS(FACTS) Aircraft: Malaysian Air Lines Aircraft Age: 11years 10 months Aircraft Type: Boeing 777 ER Flight No: MH370(shared with China Southern Airlines) Passengers travelled: 227 Crew Travelled: 12 Nationalities: 14 Take Off Time: 12.41 am From: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia To: Beijing, China
  • 7. Statistics • is the study of the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation and presentation of information or data • all aspects of data including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments are used
  • 8. mathematical roots • Two mathematical results of Bayes Theorem are, –THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS, and –THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM
  • 9. law of large numbers (LLN) • Is a theorem • describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times • thus the average of results obtained should be close to the expected value, and • The result will tend to become closer to reality
  • 10. central limit theorem (CLT) • the arithmetic mean of a sufficiently large number of iterates of independent random variables, each with a well-defined expected value and well-defined variance, will be approximately normally distributed • This will probably lead to a conclusion of the reality
  • 11. normal distribution • suppose – sample contains a large number of observations, – each observation being randomly generated, – in a way that does not depend on the values of the other observations – that the arithmetic average of the observed values is computed, – and if this procedure is performed many times, – then central limit theorem says the computed values of the average will be a “normal distribution“ – The normal distribution is commonly known as a "bell curve"
  • 12. Bayes' theorem is, • a result that is of importance in the mathematical manipulation of conditional probabilities • It is a result that derives from the more basic axioms of probability • It is a result that can lead to realistic conclusions
  • 13. Bayesian (or epistemological) interpretation • probability measures a degree of belief • Bayes' theorem then links the degree of belief • in a proposition before and after accounting for evidence. • example, take a proposal that a biased coin is twice as likely to land heads than tails. – Degree of belief in this might initially be 50%. – The coin is then flipped a number of times to collect evidence. – Belief may rise to 70% if the evidence supports the proposition
  • 14. axioms of probability probability is, • a game of chance • measures the real, physical tendency of something to occur • Measures how strongly one believes it will occur • draws on both these elements? • interprets the probability values of probability theory to answer the above questions
  • 15. real life probability Event Or Occurrence Non-Random event Random Event Weather Seasonal Change, Local Climate Precipitation, Temperature on Specific Days Car Accidents Safe or Unsafe Driving Practices Specific Cars or Conditions Met on the Road Customers at Mall Hours Open, Time of the Day Specific Pattern of Customer Arrival State Lottery Decision About Games Available, Prices and Awards Numbers Drawn or Winning Patterns on Tickets Plane Crash Ability of Flight Captains, Security Measures Plane Engine Failure, Terrorists Intrusion Student Grades Amount of Time of study, Revision and Class Preparation Appearance of Specific questions on Tests
  • 16. the search
  • 17. why MH370 flight missing? • Its loss is a mystery • Many theories, probabilities and interpretations still remain • Inconclusive, inadequate and intriguing • Probably Bayes Theoretical approach would help • Scientists tend to believe in this theory as a probable lead to discovery of the missing plane
  • 18. the theory that would not die • “It’s a very short, simple equation that says you can start out with hypothesis about something - and it doesn’t matter how good the hypothesis is,” • - Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
  • 19. how because of, • this character of the formula • forcing researchers to change their hypothesis with each new information • that the probability becomes more accurate
  • 20. the proof • Bayes’ Theorem “allows the organisation of available data with associated uncertainties and computation of the PDF • Scientists applied Bayes’ Theorem in the Air France incident of 2009 • French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace, helped locate German U-boats during World War II and spot Soviet submarines during the Cold War • More recently, it is used in Google's "driverless cars" project and in stock market predictions • PDF or the probability distribution function, identified the target location given these data"
  • 21. Why Not? • Advocates of this theory said it was also used in the search for the black box of the ill-fated Air France flight 447, which crashed in the vast Atlantic Ocean in June 2009 • What took two years for other experts in the search for the black box, took only five days for consultants who applied the Bayes’ Theorem, to finally find the device 12,000 feet under water. • In the current search for flight MH370, it is “highly unlikely” that Bayes’ Theorem is being applied. Air France Accident summary Date 1 June 2009 Summary Entered high altitude stall, impacted ocean Site Atlantic Ocean near waypoint TASIL [1] 3°03′57″N 30°33′42″WCoordinat es: 3°03′57″N 30°33′42″W Passengers 216 Crew 12 Fatalities 228 (all) Survivors 0 Aircraft type Airbus A330-203 Operator Air France Registration F-GZCP Flight origin Rio de Janeiro–Galeão Airport Destination Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport
  • 22. Inconclusive Theories about MH 370 • Sudden shut down of all flight systems • Sabotage by suspects • Hijackers on board • ‘Undesirable clients’ in the cockpit • Deep dive into ocean bed • Disgruntled or insane flight officer • Ill equipped management and security systems • Etc., etc., etc…..
  • 23. learn from experience • Bayes' Theorem, –is all about learning from experience –one would need "reasonably accurate past experiences" for the theorem to work –in other words, to calculate accurately to locate the plane
  • 24. find the plane • ‘go find the plane, with science in your bag, enough of spiritual and emotional beliefs and traditional methods’-masi
  • 25. thanks • Malaysian government reports/statements • Wikipedia.com • Malaysiakini Radio/TV and the Media • Photo Gallery • Gayesian experts like Sharon Bertsch McGrayne