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Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
Strategic foresight nf-ml
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Strategic foresight nf-ml

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  • 1. Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 1
  • 2. Strategic Foresight an introduction Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 2 an introduction
  • 3. Premises for socio-technological studies (incl. foresight) Natural laws are quite reliable for all practical purposes (some theories may be false, new mechanisms are discovered) Technology and engineering are subject to natural laws (it cannot be built if not in accordance with natural laws) Human biology and psychology have some fairly reliable components Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 3 Human biology and psychology have some fairly reliable components (as biology and cognition follows natural laws) Economics follows a certain logic and sets of established rules (esp. if based on human biology and psychology, e.g. needs) “Societal laws” are quite artificial and can be subject to change over time (laws and regulations, norms, tastes, acceptable behavior etc.)
  • 4. “Societal laws” can impact economics and to some degree “human psychology” and “legal technologies”, but not the natural laws In contrast to natural laws, “Societal laws” can be changed! Premises for socio-technological studies (incl. foresight) Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 4
  • 5. Finally only physical things can affect physical things… Possibilities are depending on: Restrictions from natural laws Available technology (e.g. for analysis, communication etc.) Premises for socio-technological studies (incl. foresight) Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 5 Realization of physical things is dependent on thought processes: Intelligence (research) Laws and regulations Societal acceptance (incl. will people buy it, invest in R&D etc.)
  • 6. What we can do (if we really want tit) But do we really? Societal reactions Interest groups Policy/Laws Emotions Finances Wild Cards Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 6 Policy/Laws Undesirable Technologies Desirable Technologies ∞ possible Currently possible Currently legally implemented
  • 7. Definition Foresight Systemic study about possible probable Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 7 probable preferable Futures
  • 8. Not a prediction of the future, but an evaluation of possible developments based on: Natural laws Socio-economic “patterns” and theories (“weak laws”) The state of present Definition Foresight Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 8 The state of present scientific technological socio-economic possibilities and developments as baseline
  • 9. The goal is to influence the direction of events to archive a desirable (relative standpoint) future. Strategic Foresight “The best way to predict your future is to create it” Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 9 “The best way to predict your future is to create it” (Abraham Lincoln?, Peter Drucker?)
  • 10. 1) Identify possible futures (possible according to natural laws) 2) Identify probable futures (probable in regard to timeframes , expenses, practicality and “societal laws”) 3) Identify preferred futures (relative standpoints) Strategic Foresight Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 10 3) Identify preferred futures (relative standpoints) 4) can the probabilities for preferred futures be changed through changes of “societal laws”?
  • 11. How to: Strategic Foresight 1) Identify possible futures Natural Law Side What is possible within the framework of natural laws? What may be possible given a certain time-frame? Findings of basic research Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 11 Findings of basic research Gaps/uncertainties in basic research Technologies Analysis technologies Production technologies Enabling technologies To create products that could bring about change in XYZ
  • 12. How to: Strategic Foresight 1) Identify possible futures Methodology R&D scanning (what is possible in theory) Weak signal scanning (blueprints, early demonstrators etc.) Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 12 Analysis of R&D/technology dependencies (e.g. of analysis technologies, enabling technologies etc. and their availability in dependence to time)
  • 13. 2) Identify probable futures Socio-economic Side Are the resources available Is it economically feasible How to: Strategic Foresight Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 13 Probable in regard to time-frames (generally: the probability for a new possible technology to be implemented rises with time) Is there societal interest (incl. laws and regulations, economic considerations, expressed societal challenges etc.) To create products that could bring about change in XYZ
  • 14. How to: Strategic Foresight 2) Identify probable futures Methodology Economic forecasts Macrohistory (e.g. cycles etc.) Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 14 Socio-economic Trends and legal landscapes Analysis of socio-economic dependencies Identification of possible “wild cards” (possible but improbable game changers) Scenario methods Delphi methods for possibility assessment
  • 15. How to: Strategic Foresight 3) Identify preferable futures Socio-economic side What are the gaps to the status quo? What do we want to change? Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 15 What are “Grand Challenges” How do we want to live? How do we want to achieve how we want to live? What is desirable for whom? Who are the stakeholders of change? What are possible trade-offs?
  • 16. How to: Strategic Foresight 3) Identify preferable futures Methodology Visions and Vision Assessment Grand Challenges Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 16 “Normative Delphi” Technology Assessment Influencing entities and their positions can e.g. displayed/modeled with a “force diagram”
  • 17. 4) Can the probabilities be changed through changes of “societal laws”? Gap analysis between possible, probable and desirable futures Here “Societal Laws” are a crucial element Goal: Influence “Societal Laws” (perception, laws, acceptance, desires, How to: Strategic Foresight Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 17 Goal: Influence “Societal Laws” (perception, laws, acceptance, desires, funding etc.) to make more desirable futures more probable.
  • 18. 4) Can the probabilities be changed through changes of “societal laws”? Methodology Path dependency analysis (how does A impact B) SWOT Analysis to arrive at XYZ How to: Strategic Foresight Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 18 Identification of requirements (what do we need, e.g. funding, access to decision-makers, HR, media, tools etc. and how can we get it) Identification of leverage points Strategy planning and action plan Force diagrams
  • 19. Integrative Model Vision: What do we want? TA/ELSI: • What may be consequences? Vision Assessment • How realistic is the vision? • Which factors play a role? • What do we need? Challenge: What do we need? + Trends + History Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 19 Revised Vision (desirable and possible) (Innovation) Strategies Scenarios Forecasts (in plural!)
  • 20. The earlier you know what might happen within a given time-frame (e.g. a theory to be put into a product), the more time to act to: Invest in development of products (acceleration) Gather funding to achieve the goal in time Influence “Societal Laws” Strategic Foresight Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 20 Influence “Societal Laws” or develop strategies to hinder an outcome
  • 21. The technology is already there, but the legal framework lags behind Terms: Legal Lag (Examples: human embryonic stem cells, digital media and IPR, Neurotechnology (e.g. concept of death), accountability in regard to robotics/automated systems/prosthetics, life extension technologies) Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 21
  • 22. A perceived increase in the rate of technological (and sometimes social and cultural) progress throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future. (Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil) Terms: Accelerating Change Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 22
  • 23. Dr. Miriam JS Leis Strategic Futurist 23

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