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Integrative foresight
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Integrative foresight

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    Integrative foresight Integrative foresight Presentation Transcript

    • Integrative Foresight Concept Dr. Miriam Leis Strategic Foresight Consultant http://mjsleis.wordpress.com/ leis.miriam@gmail.com
    • Overview: Major Foresight-Related Concepts (Macro)history (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles) Forecasting (e.g. Economic forecasts) (Mega)trends
    • Overview: Major Foresight-Related Concepts (Macro)history (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles) Forecasting (e.g. Economic forecasts) (Mega)trends Grand Challenges (e.g. UN Develop Goals) Visons
    • Overview: Major Foresight-Related Concepts (Macro)history (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles) Forecasting (e.g. Economic forecasts) (Mega)trends Innovation Studies Scenarios SWOT Grand Challenges (e.g. UN Develop Goals) Visons4
    • Overview: Major Foresight-Related Concepts (Macro)history (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles) Forecasting (e.g. Economic forecasts) (Mega)trends Innovation Studies Scenarios SWOT Grand Challenges (e.g. UN Develop Goals) Technology-Assessment/ELSA Visons5
    • Overview: Major Foresight-Related Concepts (Macro)history (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles) Forecasting (e.g. Economic forecasts) (Mega)trends Wild Cards Innovation Studies Weak Signals Scenarios SWOT Grand Challenges (e.g. UN Develop Goals) Technology-Assessment/ELSA Visons6
    • Individual Problems (Macro)history (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles) Forecasting (e.g. Economic forecasts) (Mega)trends • History = Future? • Unexpected events? • Basis for data?7
    • Individual Problems • How realistic? • Influencing factors? • Desirable? Grand Challenges (e.g. UN Develop Goals) Visons8
    • Individual Problems • Probabilities? • Elements? • Data for assessment? Innovation Studies Scenarios SWOT9
    • Individual Problems • Constructive Solutions? • What to do? Technology-Assessment/ELSA10
    • Individual Problems • Probability? • Assessment? Wild Cards Weak Signals11
    • Integrative Model Challenge: What do we need? Vision: What do we want? TA/ELSI: Vision Assessment • What may be consequences? • How realistic is the vision? + Trends • Which factors play a role? + History • What do we need? W Scenarios W ild C ea ar k S ds ign als Forecasts (in plural!) Revised Vision (desirable and possible) (Innovation) Strategies12
    • Advantages Challenge: What do we need? Vision: What do we want? Bridging the gap: connecting a vision to a challenge! • Identification of status quo • Identification of positive and negative aspects of status quo • Where do we want to go, what do we want to achieve? • Critical thinking: Who wants to achieve what and why?13
    • Advantages Challenge: What do we need? Vision: What do we want? TA/ELSI: Vision Assessment • What may be consequences? • How realistic is the vision? + Trends • Which factors play a role? + History • What do we need? • How realistic is the vision? What is required? (resources, laws etc.) Discard really “utopan visions” (i.e. unrealistic to achieve within reasonable assumptions) • Make TA/ELSI more constructive Don’t waste time discussing “utopian ideas” • Identify ELSI influencing factors (e.g. societal perception, trends culture and “macrohistorical constants”)14 • TA to identify potential problems and find alternatives & solutions
    • Advantages . . . TA/ELSI: Vision Assessment • What may be consequences? • How realistic is the vision? + Trends • Which factors play a role? + History • What do we need? W Scenarios W ild C ea ar k S ds ign als Forecasts (in plural!) • Draft scenarios with wild cards! • Quantitative elements for scenarios & qualitative elements for forecasting Combine scenarios and forecasting Better founded scenarios as well as forecasts = possible futures15
    • Advantages . . . W Scenarios W ild C ea ar k S ds ign als Forecasts (in plural!) Revised Vision (desirable and possible) (Innovation) Strategies • Desirable visions + status quo analysis + possible futures + gap analysis What do we need? Development of concrete strategy to achieve goal16
    • Why Do We Need Better Solutions? • Forecasts bad with disruptive developments (e.g. financial crisis) Scenario-based forecasting (quali/quanti) • Weak signals can exist but are often not considered for action Weak signals and wild cards as part of scenarios • Scenarios often lack quantitative basis • ELSA/TA vision discussion often decoupled from sci-tech reality TA Vision Assessment • Technology Assessment often normative elements Technological possibilities ≠ implementations • Visionary forecasts (e.g. Kurzweil) decoupled from societal factors Solution-oriented • Visions and innovations often decoupled visions and innovation from “Grand Challenges” strategy17
    • Advantages Vision • A concrete description about the vision and its elements What do we need? Gap analysis • Known physical/natural laws • Resources (time, money, material, energy, production) • Knowledge • Technology to realise the vision • Timeframe • What can we realistically expect to have at time X? (what do we already have, what is emerging, what is principally possible) Technological Possibilities (if we really want it...)18
    • Vision Assessment Technological Possibilities (if we really want it...) Emotions Societal reactions Finances But do we really? Interest groups Wild Cards Policy/Laws Currently possible Undesirable Technologies possible ∞ Currently legally implemented Desirable Technologies19
    • Dr. Miriam LeisStrategic Foresight Consultanthttp://mjsleis.wordpress.com/leis.miriam@gmail.com