Integrative Foresight Concept                                Dr. Miriam Leis                                Strategic Fore...
Overview: Major Foresight-Related Concepts           (Macro)history           (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles)                   ...
Overview: Major Foresight-Related Concepts           (Macro)history           (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles)                   ...
Overview: Major Foresight-Related Concepts                (Macro)history                (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles)         ...
Overview: Major Foresight-Related Concepts                (Macro)history                (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles)         ...
Overview: Major Foresight-Related Concepts                (Macro)history                (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles)         ...
Individual Problems                 (Macro)history                 (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles)                         Forec...
Individual Problems    • How realistic?    • Influencing factors?    • Desirable?                             Grand Challe...
Individual Problems                                    • Probabilities?                                    • Elements?    ...
Individual Problems                                  • Constructive Solutions?                                  • What to ...
Individual Problems                           • Probability?                           • Assessment?                      ...
Integrative Model                         Challenge: What do we need?                           Vision: What do we want?  ...
Advantages                         Challenge: What do we need?                            Vision: What do we want?     Bri...
Advantages                          Challenge: What do we need?                            Vision: What do we want?       ...
Advantages                             .                                            .                                     ...
Advantages                               .                                              .                                 ...
Why Do We Need Better Solutions?     • Forecasts bad with disruptive       developments (e.g. financial crisis)       Scen...
Advantages                                               Vision      • A concrete description about the vision and its ele...
Vision Assessment                              Technological Possibilities                                   (if we really...
Dr. Miriam LeisStrategic Foresight Consultanthttp://mjsleis.wordpress.com/leis.miriam@gmail.com
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Integrative foresight

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Integrative foresight

  1. 1. Integrative Foresight Concept Dr. Miriam Leis Strategic Foresight Consultant http://mjsleis.wordpress.com/ leis.miriam@gmail.com
  2. 2. Overview: Major Foresight-Related Concepts (Macro)history (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles) Forecasting (e.g. Economic forecasts) (Mega)trends
  3. 3. Overview: Major Foresight-Related Concepts (Macro)history (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles) Forecasting (e.g. Economic forecasts) (Mega)trends Grand Challenges (e.g. UN Develop Goals) Visons
  4. 4. Overview: Major Foresight-Related Concepts (Macro)history (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles) Forecasting (e.g. Economic forecasts) (Mega)trends Innovation Studies Scenarios SWOT Grand Challenges (e.g. UN Develop Goals) Visons4
  5. 5. Overview: Major Foresight-Related Concepts (Macro)history (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles) Forecasting (e.g. Economic forecasts) (Mega)trends Innovation Studies Scenarios SWOT Grand Challenges (e.g. UN Develop Goals) Technology-Assessment/ELSA Visons5
  6. 6. Overview: Major Foresight-Related Concepts (Macro)history (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles) Forecasting (e.g. Economic forecasts) (Mega)trends Wild Cards Innovation Studies Weak Signals Scenarios SWOT Grand Challenges (e.g. UN Develop Goals) Technology-Assessment/ELSA Visons6
  7. 7. Individual Problems (Macro)history (e.g. Kondratieff Cycles) Forecasting (e.g. Economic forecasts) (Mega)trends • History = Future? • Unexpected events? • Basis for data?7
  8. 8. Individual Problems • How realistic? • Influencing factors? • Desirable? Grand Challenges (e.g. UN Develop Goals) Visons8
  9. 9. Individual Problems • Probabilities? • Elements? • Data for assessment? Innovation Studies Scenarios SWOT9
  10. 10. Individual Problems • Constructive Solutions? • What to do? Technology-Assessment/ELSA10
  11. 11. Individual Problems • Probability? • Assessment? Wild Cards Weak Signals11
  12. 12. Integrative Model Challenge: What do we need? Vision: What do we want? TA/ELSI: Vision Assessment • What may be consequences? • How realistic is the vision? + Trends • Which factors play a role? + History • What do we need? W Scenarios W ild C ea ar k S ds ign als Forecasts (in plural!) Revised Vision (desirable and possible) (Innovation) Strategies12
  13. 13. Advantages Challenge: What do we need? Vision: What do we want? Bridging the gap: connecting a vision to a challenge! • Identification of status quo • Identification of positive and negative aspects of status quo • Where do we want to go, what do we want to achieve? • Critical thinking: Who wants to achieve what and why?13
  14. 14. Advantages Challenge: What do we need? Vision: What do we want? TA/ELSI: Vision Assessment • What may be consequences? • How realistic is the vision? + Trends • Which factors play a role? + History • What do we need? • How realistic is the vision? What is required? (resources, laws etc.) Discard really “utopan visions” (i.e. unrealistic to achieve within reasonable assumptions) • Make TA/ELSI more constructive Don’t waste time discussing “utopian ideas” • Identify ELSI influencing factors (e.g. societal perception, trends culture and “macrohistorical constants”)14 • TA to identify potential problems and find alternatives & solutions
  15. 15. Advantages . . . TA/ELSI: Vision Assessment • What may be consequences? • How realistic is the vision? + Trends • Which factors play a role? + History • What do we need? W Scenarios W ild C ea ar k S ds ign als Forecasts (in plural!) • Draft scenarios with wild cards! • Quantitative elements for scenarios & qualitative elements for forecasting Combine scenarios and forecasting Better founded scenarios as well as forecasts = possible futures15
  16. 16. Advantages . . . W Scenarios W ild C ea ar k S ds ign als Forecasts (in plural!) Revised Vision (desirable and possible) (Innovation) Strategies • Desirable visions + status quo analysis + possible futures + gap analysis What do we need? Development of concrete strategy to achieve goal16
  17. 17. Why Do We Need Better Solutions? • Forecasts bad with disruptive developments (e.g. financial crisis) Scenario-based forecasting (quali/quanti) • Weak signals can exist but are often not considered for action Weak signals and wild cards as part of scenarios • Scenarios often lack quantitative basis • ELSA/TA vision discussion often decoupled from sci-tech reality TA Vision Assessment • Technology Assessment often normative elements Technological possibilities ≠ implementations • Visionary forecasts (e.g. Kurzweil) decoupled from societal factors Solution-oriented • Visions and innovations often decoupled visions and innovation from “Grand Challenges” strategy17
  18. 18. Advantages Vision • A concrete description about the vision and its elements What do we need? Gap analysis • Known physical/natural laws • Resources (time, money, material, energy, production) • Knowledge • Technology to realise the vision • Timeframe • What can we realistically expect to have at time X? (what do we already have, what is emerging, what is principally possible) Technological Possibilities (if we really want it...)18
  19. 19. Vision Assessment Technological Possibilities (if we really want it...) Emotions Societal reactions Finances But do we really? Interest groups Wild Cards Policy/Laws Currently possible Undesirable Technologies possible ∞ Currently legally implemented Desirable Technologies19
  20. 20. Dr. Miriam LeisStrategic Foresight Consultanthttp://mjsleis.wordpress.com/leis.miriam@gmail.com

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