Catalan Political Opinion Barometer - November 2013

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Catalan Political Opinion Barometer - November 2013 . 3rd Wave

Source: CEO

Data: 22.11.13.

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Catalan Political Opinion Barometer - November 2013

  1. 1. Press report Political Opinion Barometer 31 3rd wave 2013
  2. 2. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013 Contents Contents 1. Technical specifications 2. Main results Press report based on the results of the Political Opinion Barometer. 3rd wave 2013 Corresponding to the Register of Opinion Studies number 733 2
  3. 3. 3 1 Technical specifications Press report, Public Opinion Barometer (BOP). 3nd wave 2013
  4. 4. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013 Technical specifications Summary Level of confidence: 95% Variance p=q=50% Sample size: 2,000 individuals Sampling error: + 2.69% Scope: Catalonia Univers: Spanish citizens of 18 years of age and more who live in Catalonia Method of data collection: Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) Sampling procedure: Stratification by province and town size, with selection of last sample units (individuals) using sex and age crossed quotas. Town size is divided into 6 categories: • less or equal to 2,000 inhabitants • from 2,001 and 10,000 inhabitants • from 10,001 and 50,000 inhabitants • from 50,001 and 150,000 inhabitants • from 150,001 and 1,000,000 inhabitants • more than 1 million inhabitants To calculate the quotas we use the official statistics from the Padró continu de població from the year 2012. The age quotas correspond to the following intervals: • 18 to 34 years of age • 35 to 49 years of age • 50 to 64 years of age • 65 and more years of age 4
  5. 5. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013 Technical specifications Sample size: 2,000 interviews with the following territorial distribution: • Barcelona 800 • Girona 400 • Lleida 400 • Tarragona 400 Allocation: Not proportional. To obtain representative figures for the whole Catalan population, the results have been weighted by the following territorial weights: • Barcelona 1.864609957 • Girona 0.465810004 • Lleida 0.286327498 • Tarragona 0.518642584 Sampling error: The overall margin of error of the survey is + 2.69%, for a confidence level of 95% (1.96 sigma) and under the assumption of maximum indetermination (p=q=50%). In each province the margins of error are: • Barcelona + 3.47% • Girona + 4.90% • Lleida + 4.90% • Tarragona + 4.90% Fieldwork: The fieldwork has been performed by GESOP, from the 4 to the 14 of November, 2013. 5
  6. 6. 6 2 Main results Press report, Political Opinion Barometer (BOP). 3rd wave 2013
  7. 7. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013 Political values 4.5 Relations between Catalonia and Spain Question 27 Do you think that Catalonia has achieved... (N=2,000; simple response; %) 80 70,4 70 60 50 40 30 20,6 20 10 4,3 3,9 0,8 0 Too much autonomy A sufficient level of autonomy An insufficient level of autonomy Do not know Do not answer 100 80 71,6 71,2 72,5 70,4 18,6 68,4 19,2 19,1 20,6 60 40 21,3 20 0 3,3 June 12 3,9 Oct 12 Too much 3,8 Feb.13 Sufficient 4,6 June 13 Insufficient 3,9 Nov. 13 7
  8. 8. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013 Political values Question 28 Do you believe that Catalonia should be... (N=2,000; simple response; %) 48,5 50 40 30 18,6 20 10 21,3 5,4 4,0 2,2 0 A region of Spain An autonomous A state in a federal An independent community of Spain state Spain Do not know 30 46,4 44,3 50 40 Do not answer 34,0 28,7 25,5 22,4 20 21,2 21,3 25,4 19,1 10 48,5 47,0 5,7 20,7 4,4 4,0 22,8 18,6 4,6 5,4 0 June 12 Oct 12 Region Feb.13 AC Federal state June 13 Nov. 13 Independent state 8
  9. 9. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013 Political values Question 39 And more precisely, if a referendum to decide the independence of Catalonia was to be held tomorrow, what would you do? (N=2,000; simple response; %) Vote in favor of independence 54,7 Vote against independence 22,1 Abstain / would not vote 15,7 Other responses 1,3 Do not know 4,9 Do not answer 1,4 0 20 40 60 80 100 80 60 51,1 57,0 54,7 55,6 40 23,4 21,1 20,7 20,5 54,7 22,1 20 21,1 14,3 17,0 15,3 15,7 0 June 12 Oct 12 Vote in favor of independence Feb.13 June 13 Vote against independence Nov. 13 Abstain / would not vote 9
  10. 10. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013 Political values Question 39 And more precisely, if a referendum to decide the independence of Catalonia was to be held tomorrow, what would you do? (N=2,000; simple response; %) Vote intention, elections to the Parliament of Catalonia Vote in favor of independence 54,7 0,0 80,6 94,0 12,3 52,2 0,7 81,8 Vote against independence 22,1 87,2 5,6 1,3 61,2 23,2 83,6 3,0 Abstain / would not vote 15,7 9,8 9,1 3,3 18,0 15,5 14,0 7,7 Others 1,3 1,1 0,1 0,4 3,6 2,3 0,5 4,7 Do not know 4,9 1,9 3,5 0,9 5,0 4,9 1,2 2,7 Do not answer 1,4 0,0 1,2 0,0 0,0 1,9 0,0 0,0 Unweighted 2000 2000 28 27 365 345 452 423 1 03 13 1 1 05 1 24 1 00 1 05 84 79 Weighted (*) No n significant resultats 10
  11. 11. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013 Elections to the Parliament of Catalonia 11 5.2 Elections to the Catalan Parliament: vote intention If elections to the Catalan Parliament were to be held tomorrow, what party or coalition would you vote for? Question 32 (N=2,000; simple response; %;) PPC 1,4 CIU 17,2 ERC 21,1 PSC 5,6 ICV-EUiA 6,2 C's 5,3 CUP Previous Barometer 3,9 Others 2,0 PPC 2,1 CIU Blank vote 4,8 18,2 ERC 22,0 PSC Null vote 6,9 ICV-EUiA 0,8 7,4 C's Will not vote CUP 10,8 Undecided 5,1 4,8 Others 1,4 Blank vote 16,3 4,8 Null vote 1,2 Will not vote Do not answer 4,6 9,9 Undecided 12,7 Do not answer 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3,5 0 10 20 30 40 50
  12. 12. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013 Elections to the Parliament of Catalonia Question 30 12 And could you tell me to what party or coalition did you vote for in the last elections to the Parliament of Catalonia? (N=2,000; simple response; %) 2,7 PPC 8,71 CIU ERC 13,7 9,20 PSC 8,4 9,69 ICV-EUIA 7,7 6,64 3,0 C's 5,08 2,7 CUP Others 27,2 20,62 2,34 3,89 2,0 Previous Barometer PPC 2,7 Blank vote 2,9 CIU 0,98 26,4 ERC 0,1 Null vote 17,2 PSC 0,61 8,3 ICV-EUIA 16,4 Did not vote C's 32,24 4,2 Others 1,7 Blank vote 2,4 Null vote 8,1 Do not answer 3,7 CUP 5,4 Do not know 7,3 0,7 Did not vote 15,0 Do not know 0 5 10 15 Real vote 2012 (% over the electoral census) 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3,1 Do not… 7,1 0 10 20 30 40 50
  13. 13. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013 Electoral behaviour 5.4 Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados: vote intention If elections to the Congreso de los Diputados were to be held tomorrow, what party or coalition would you vote for? Question 36 (N=2,000; simple response; %) PPC 2,1 CIU 16,6 ERC 17,6 PSC 8,3 ICV-EUiA 6,4 C's 2,7 CUP 2,4 Others 2,8 Previous Barometer PPC 3,6 CIU 18,6 ERC Blank vote 5,8 17,2 PSC 9,3 ICV-EUiA Null vote 1,0 7,7 C's 2,9 CUP Will not vote 11,8 3,2 Others 1,6 Blank vote Undecided Do not answer 1,3 Will not vote 9,7 Undecided 4,8 0 6,6 Null vote 17,7 15,1 Do not answer 10 20 30 40 50 3,1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 13
  14. 14. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013 Electoral behaviour If elections to the Congreso de los Diputados were to be held tomorrow, what party or coalition would you vote for? Pregunta 34 (N=2,000; simple response; %) 3,8 PPC 13,63 CIU ERC 19,31 4,65 9,9 13,0 PSC ICV-EUiA 21,6 17,52 5,32 C's 0,8 CUP 7,4 0,4 Others Baròmetre anterior 1,4 4,13 PPC Blank vote 3,0 5,7 CIU 1,22 21,1 ERC Null vote 0,6 PSC 1,06 13,8 ICV-EUiA 21,4 Did not vote Do not know 12,5 6,3 C's 33,18 1,0 CUP 0,2 Others 9,0 1,4 Blank vote 2,7 Null vote Do not answer 7,5 0,8 Did not vote 20,5 Do not know 0 5 10 15 20 Real vote 2011 (% over electoral census) 25 30 35 40 45 50 7,4 Do not answer 6,6 0 10 20 30 40 50 14
  15. 15. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013 Electoral behaviour 5.7 Ratings of political leaders Question 37b How do you rate the political performance of these leaders? Please rate them in a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 is very poor and 10 is excellent. (Base: know the leader; simple response; average) Oriol Junqueras 5,61 Alfred Bosch 5,21 David Fernàndez 5,07 Joan Herrera 4,78 Artur Mas 4,75 Joan Coscubiela 4,47 Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida 4,10 Jordi Martí 3,89 Pere Navarro 3,44 Albert Rivera 3,08 Jorge Fernández Díaz 2,47 Alícia Sánchez-Camacho 1,88 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15
  16. 16. Appendix 1 16 7.4 Cross-tabulation of vote recall and vote intention to the elections of the Parliament of Catalonia. Vote recall, Parliament of Catalonia 2012 Others/Null vote Blank vote Will not vote DK/NA Total 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,0 0.8 1.4 2.4 52.4 1.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.1 1.0 10.3 4.3 17.2 0.9 21.5 82.5 4.1 7.1 0.0 7.9 16.3 1.5 8.4 8.2 21.1 1.4 0.8 0.0 53.8 1.6 0.9 0.0 1.1 0.9 3.6 0.6 5.6 0.5 1.0 0.8 3.5 59.6 0.8 0.0 1.2 0.0 4.3 1.4 6.2 28.6 1.5 0.0 3.6 2.4 75.7 0.0 1.1 14.8 3.6 2.3 5.3 0.0 1.0 2.9 0.0 9.0 0.0 76.0 10.7 0.0 1.6 0.6 3.9 Others/Null vote 0.0 1.2 0.7 1.1 1.6 3.2 4.5 42.1 3.5 2.9 3.1 2.7 Blank vote 1.0 2.3 1.5 2.6 1.9 8.4 1.4 4.4 50.6 7.6 4.4 4.8 Will not vote 13.6 5.1 0.8 9.6 2.9 0.9 0.9 2.6 19.8 35.7 10.8 10.9 DK/NA 18.7 13.0 9.0 19.0 13.7 10.3 9.3 15.6 8.0 20.0 63.5 20.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 59 54 582 543 304 275 1 49 1 68 19 1 1 54 52 59 61 53 39 43 52 54 31 6 328 267 270 2000 2000 Vote intention 33.1 Total Unweighted Weitghted (*) No n significant resultats
  17. 17. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013 Annex 2 Elections to the Parliament of Catalonia Political Opinion Barometer, 3rd wave 2013 Direct vote Vote intention estimates Sit (in %) (in % over valid estimates vote) Resultats 2012 %VV escons CiU 17.2 22.2 34-36 30.7 50 ERC 21.1 24.2 37-39 13.7 21 PSC 5.6 11.1 14-16 14.4 20 PP 1.4 9.4 13-14 13.0 19 ICV-EUiA 6.2 9.8 12-14 9.9 13 C's 5.3 12.2 15-17 7.6 9 CUP 3.9 5.2 6-7 3.5 3 others 2.0 3.3 5.7 --- blank vote 4.8 2.6 1.5 --- null vote 0.8 Abstention (“will not vote") 10.8 Undecided 16.3 Do not answer 4.6 Turn out: 60% 17
  18. 18. Press Report, BOP. 3rd wave 2013 Appendix 2 Elections to the Congreso de los Diputados Political Opinion Barometer, 3rd wave 2013 Direct Vote intention estimates Sit estimates (in % over valid (in %) vote) Results 2011 %VV sits CiU 16.6 22.2 13-14 29.4 16 PSC 8.3 17.0 8-9 26.7 14 PP 2.1 12.7 7-8 20.7 11 ICV-EUiA 6.4 9.0 3 8.1 3 ERC 17.6 20.6 11-12 7.1 3 C's 2.7 9.2 3-4 CUP 2.4 4.0 0-1 6.3 0 others 2.8 3.5 blank votes 5.8 1.8 null votes 1.0 Abstention (“will not vote") 11.8 Undecided 17.7 Do not answer 4.8 Turn out: 65% 1.9 18

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