0
Several good
reasons to
remain
optimistic!
Magnus Ericsson

Scandium drawing: Kaianders Sempler.

Mining on Top, Stockholm...
Metal prices

Copper drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
Copper price I
USD/t
Copper price II
USD/t
Copper price III
USD/t
2000

1000

1900
1903
1906
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
...
Copper price V
Metal prices
700

40000

Index = 100 year 2000
35000

600

30000

500

25000
400
20000
300
15000
200

10000

100

5000

0
...
Metal prices
remain at
high levels.

Copper drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
Chinese economic
development continues
to impress.
Import of ores will
increase.
Exploration

Manganese drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
Nordic exploration
300

M EUR
250

200

150

100

50

0
2001

2002
2003
Sweden

2004

Source: Raw Materials Group.

2005
F...
Mining capex

Neodymium drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
Mining capex
250000

MUSD
200000

150000

100000

50000

0
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016
Conclusions
• Prices remain on high
levels.
• Chinese demand grows production declines.
• Exploration much too low.
• Cape...
Background

Source: Swedish Geological Survey SGU.
Background

Source: Swedish Geological Survey SGU.
Background

Source: Swedish Geological Survey SGU.
Global metal mining I
CIS 10.5 %
Europe excl CIS
2.4 %

North America 8.2 %

Asia 25.0 %

Latin America excl Mexico
22.1 %...
Global metal mining II

China
14.8 %

Source: Raw Materials Data.

061030

Anton Löf
Operating mines

Source: Raw Materials Data.
Background

Source: Swedish Geological Survey SGU.
Source: SGU, GTK,
Ore production by mine

Source: Raw Materials Data.
Nordic ore production
300

Mt
250

200
Sweden
Norway

150

Greenland
Finland
100

50

0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007...
Ore production OP/UG
300

250

Mt

200

UG

150

OP
100

50

0
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Raw Materials Data.

2014

2015...
Nordic exploration
300

M EUR
250

200

150

100

50

0
2001

2002
2003
Sweden

2004

Source: Raw Materials Group.

2005
F...
Nordic mining
Iron ore Gold
Mt
t

Fin/Nor/Swe

Lead
kt

Zinc
kt

Copper Nickel
kt
kt

29.7

14.1

66

242

103

21

Sweden...
Nordic refining
Nickel Aluminium
kt
kt

Zinc
kt

Copper
kt

Fin/Nor/Swe
Nordic countries
incl Iceland

137

2142

468

378...
Value of Nordic mine production
% of total world metal production value

Source: Raw Materials Data.
Exploration projects

Source: Raw Materials Data.
Canadian exploration

Source: Raw Materials Data.
Canadian operations I
Name

Country

Status

Type

Company

Main metal

Iso-Kuotko Gold Deposit

Finland

Project, no spec...
Canadian operations II
Name

Skuppesavon Uranium Deposit
Sågtjärn Uranium Deposit
Viken Uranium Deposit
Björkdal Gold Mine...
Equipment producers I
Company

Products

Website

ABB
Alimak Hek
Atlas Copco
Bergteamet
Driconeq
Drillcon
GIA (part of Atl...
Equipment producers II
Company

Products

Website

Global Drillers

Drilling training and staffing

www.globaldrillers.com...
Mine investments Sweden
% of total
18
16
14
12

3%
1996

10
8
6
4
2

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2...
Nordic mine investments
Kankberg Kemi
Kittilä

Laiva

Iron
Järn ore

Garpenberg

Nickel
Nickel
Kiruna

Copper

Koppar

3% ...
Trade fairs/conferences
Conference

When/
Frequeny

Organizer

Where

Booths

Website

Partici
pants

12-14 June
2014,
Geo...
SWOT: Strengths
•
•
•

•
•
•

Finland and Sweden are underexplored compared to other regions
with similar geological endow...
SWOT: weaknesses
• Government in Sweden has not fully understood the
importance of the sector and the support from central...
SWOT: opportunities
• Major investments in exploration and mining projects are
underway in both Sweden and Finland.
• Euro...
SWOT: threats
• New mining law in Finland has put high fees on exploration
which might in the long run dampen internationa...
Conclusions
• Dynamic, underexplored region compared to similar regions world wide.
• Highly significant new deposits bein...
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Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene

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Mining On Top: Stockholm 2013
26-27 Nov 2013

Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene –
Prof Magnus Ericsson, Co-founder Raw Materials Group, Executive Director IntierraRMG

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Transcript of "Welcome and comments on Nordic mining scene"

  1. 1. Several good reasons to remain optimistic! Magnus Ericsson Scandium drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Mining on Top, Stockholm 26/27 November 2013 10th annual RMG conference
  2. 2. Metal prices Copper drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
  3. 3. Copper price I USD/t
  4. 4. Copper price II USD/t
  5. 5. Copper price III USD/t
  6. 6. 2000 1000 1900 1903 1906 1909 1912 1915 1918 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 USD/t (2005) Copper price IV 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 33 years -3.5%pa 40 years 2.3%pa 29 years -3.5%pa 10-15 years 2-3%pa ? 0
  7. 7. Copper price V
  8. 8. Metal prices 700 40000 Index = 100 year 2000 35000 600 30000 500 25000 400 20000 300 15000 200 10000 100 5000 0 0 RMG Price Index Copper Nickel Zinc Aluminium Lead Potash Phosphate 061030 Iron Ore Metallurgical coal Anton Löf USD/t
  9. 9. Metal prices remain at high levels. Copper drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
  10. 10. Chinese economic development continues to impress. Import of ores will increase.
  11. 11. Exploration Manganese drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
  12. 12. Nordic exploration 300 M EUR 250 200 150 100 50 0 2001 2002 2003 Sweden 2004 Source: Raw Materials Group. 2005 Finland 2006 2007 2008 Greenland 2009 2010 2011 Norway 2012
  13. 13. Mining capex Neodymium drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
  14. 14. Mining capex 250000 MUSD 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
  15. 15. Conclusions • Prices remain on high levels. • Chinese demand grows production declines. • Exploration much too low. • Capex will decline in 2014 then continue to grow. Scandium drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
  16. 16. Background Source: Swedish Geological Survey SGU.
  17. 17. Background Source: Swedish Geological Survey SGU.
  18. 18. Background Source: Swedish Geological Survey SGU.
  19. 19. Global metal mining I CIS 10.5 % Europe excl CIS 2.4 % North America 8.2 % Asia 25.0 % Latin America excl Mexico 22.1 % Africa 10.4 % Oceania 14.4 % Source: Raw Materials Data.
  20. 20. Global metal mining II China 14.8 % Source: Raw Materials Data. 061030 Anton Löf
  21. 21. Operating mines Source: Raw Materials Data.
  22. 22. Background Source: Swedish Geological Survey SGU.
  23. 23. Source: SGU, GTK,
  24. 24. Ore production by mine Source: Raw Materials Data.
  25. 25. Nordic ore production 300 Mt 250 200 Sweden Norway 150 Greenland Finland 100 50 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sources: Raw Materials Data, GTK.
  26. 26. Ore production OP/UG 300 250 Mt 200 UG 150 OP 100 50 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Raw Materials Data. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
  27. 27. Nordic exploration 300 M EUR 250 200 150 100 50 0 2001 2002 2003 Sweden 2004 Source: Raw Materials Group. 2005 Finland 2006 2007 2008 Greenland 2009 2010 2011 Norway 2012
  28. 28. Nordic mining Iron ore Gold Mt t Fin/Nor/Swe Lead kt Zinc kt Copper Nickel kt kt 29.7 14.1 66 242 103 21 Sweden 26.5 6.1 65.5 190 82.4 0 Finland 0 8.0 0 52 21 21 Nordic % of Europe 86 70 32 30 23 30 Sweden/Finland rank Europe 1 1 1 2 3 3 Nordic countries Source: Raw Materials Data 2013.
  29. 29. Nordic refining Nickel Aluminium kt kt Zinc kt Copper kt Fin/Nor/Swe Nordic countries incl Iceland 137 2142 468 378 Sweden 0 0 0 214 Finland 46 0 315 126 Nordic % of Europe 60 49 23 14 Sweden/Finland rank Europe 2 na 2 5 Source: Raw Materials Data 2013.
  30. 30. Value of Nordic mine production % of total world metal production value Source: Raw Materials Data.
  31. 31. Exploration projects Source: Raw Materials Data.
  32. 32. Canadian exploration Source: Raw Materials Data.
  33. 33. Canadian operations I Name Country Status Type Company Main metal Iso-Kuotko Gold Deposit Finland Project, no spec Agnico-Eagle Au Kittilä Gold Mine Kylmäkangas Gold/Silver Deposit Apajalahti Gold Deposit Hirsikangas Gold Deposit Finland Finland Finland Finland Operating Conceptual Project, no spec Conceptual OP,UG Agnico-Eagle UG Agnico-Eagle Belvedere UG Belvedere Au Au Au Au Hitura Nickel Mine Jouhineva Copper/Cobalt Deposit Kaskela/Susineva Zinc Deposit Kopsa Gold Deposit Kouvervaara Cobalt Deposit Osikonmäki Gold Deposit Pirilä Gold Deposit Vesiperä Gold Deposit Ängeslampi Gold/Copper Deposit Lappvattnet Nickel Deposit Njuggträskliden/Juggs Nickel Deposit Björkråmyran Uranium Deposit Kvarnån Uranium Deposit Lilljuthatten Uranium Deposit Nöjdfjället Uranium Deposit Pleutajokk Uranium Deposit Source: Raw Materials Data. Finland Finland Finland Finland Finland Finland Finland Finland Finland Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden Susp, restart/constr OP,UG Project, no spec Conceptual Conceptual Conceptual OP Prefeasibility Conceptual Conceptual Conceptual Prefeasibility UG Conceptual Conceptual Conceptual Prefeasibility Conceptual Prefeasibility Belvedere Belvedere Belvedere Belvedere Belvedere Belvedere Belvedere Belvedere Belvedere Blackstone Ventr Blackstone Ventr Cont Precious Cont Precious Cont Precious Cont Precious Cont Precious Ni Cu Zn Au Co Au Au Au Au Ni Ni U U U U U
  34. 34. Canadian operations II Name Skuppesavon Uranium Deposit Sågtjärn Uranium Deposit Viken Uranium Deposit Björkdal Gold Mine Norrliden Zinc/Copper Deposit Duobblon Uranium Deposit Kläppibäcken Uranium Deposit Nuottijärvi Uranium Deposit Kevitsa Polymetallic Mine Pyhäsalmi Zinc Mine Woxna (Kringel) Graphite Mine Brännorna Nickel Deposit Mjövattnet Nickel Deposit Rörmyrberget Nickel Deposit Storliden Zinc/Copper Mine Svartliden Copper Deposit Zinkgruvan Zinc/Lead Mine Rompas Gold/Uranium Deposit Tåsjö Uranium/Rare Earths/Phosphate Kaukua PGM/Gold Deposit Barsele Gold Deposit Norra Kärr Rare Earths Deposit Olserum Rare Earths Deposit Otanmäki Rare Earths Deposit Sala Source: Raw Materials Data. Silver Deposit Source: Raw Materials Data. Country Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden Finland Finland Finland Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden Finland Sweden Finland Sweden Sweden Sweden Finland Sweden Status Conceptual Conceptual Prefeasibility Operating, exp Prefeasibility Conceptual Conceptual Conceptual Operating Operating Susp, restart/plans Conceptual Conceptual Conceptual Closed Abandoned project Operating, exp Project, no spec Conceptual Conceptual Conceptual Conceptual Conceptual Conceptual Project, no spec Type Company OP,UG Cont Precious Cont Precious OP Cont Precious OP,UG Elgin UG Elgin, Kopparberg European U European U European U OP First Quantum UG First Quantum Flinders Res Lundin Mining Lundin Mining UG Lundin Mining UG Lundin Mining Lundin Mining UG Lundin Mining Mawson Resources Mawson Resources OP Nortec OP Orex Minerals Tasman Metals OP Tasman Metals OP Tasman Metals Tumi Res Main metal U U U Au Zn U U U Ni Zn IM Ni Ni Ni Zn Cu Zn Au U Pd Au REO REO REO Ag
  35. 35. Equipment producers I Company Products Website ABB Alimak Hek Atlas Copco Bergteamet Driconeq Drillcon GIA (part of Atlas Copco) Engineering, power, hoists Elevators, lifts, hoists Drill rigs, LHD and more Mining Contractor Drill pipes Drilling contractors Underground utility vehicles www.abb.com www.alimakhek.com www.atlascopco.com www.bergteamet.se www.driconeq.com www.drillcon.se www.gia.se/gia Hägglunds Drives ITT Flygt Kemira Larox (part of Outotec) Metso Normet Outotec Sandvik Scania Volvo Construction Drive solutions Pumps Chemicals Filtration equipment Crushers and more Underground utility vehicles Process engineering and more Drill rigs, LHD, and more Trucks Trucks, loaders www.hagglunds.se www.flygt.se www.kemira.com www.outotec.com www.metso.com www.normet.fi www.outotec.com www.sandvik.com www.scania.com www.volvoce.com Source: Raw Materials Group.
  36. 36. Equipment producers II Company Products Website Global Drillers Drilling training and staffing www.globaldrillers.com Source: Raw Materials Group.
  37. 37. Mine investments Sweden % of total 18 16 14 12 3% 1996 10 8 6 4 2 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Swedish Statistics Office. 061030 Anton Löf
  38. 38. Nordic mine investments Kankberg Kemi Kittilä Laiva Iron Järn ore Garpenberg Nickel Nickel Kiruna Copper Koppar 3% Aitik 1996 Zink/Bly Zinc/lead Kevitsa Kaunisvaara Talvivaara Gold Guld Krom Chromite Dannemora Source: Raw Materials Group. 061030 Sydvaranger Anton Löf
  39. 39. Trade fairs/conferences Conference When/ Frequeny Organizer Where Booths Website Partici pants 12-14 June 2014, Georange/Nolia Biannual Skellefteå, Sweden >200 www.euromine xpo.se Mining trade fair 11–12 September 2013 Tampere, Finland 200 www.eurominin g.fi/ Finnmateria 19-20 Nov 2014 Annual Jyväskylä Paviljonki Jyväskylä, Finland 140 www.jklpaviljon ki.fi/finnmateria 2012/eng.php Fennoscandian Exploration Mining FEM* 29-31 Oct 2013, Biannual FEM, partners PDAC, Canadian Embassy Levi, Finland 100 fem.lappi.fi/en Mining on TopStockholm * 26-27 Nov 2013, Annual IntierraRMG Stockholm, Sweden 20 miningontop.co m/stockholm IntierraRMG Helsinki, Finland 15 miningontop.co m/helsinki 100 Nordic publishing/ Georange Stockholm, Sweden 22 www.framtiden sgruvochminer al.se 300 Note: * = In English . Euro Mine Expo * Mining on TopFinland * 16-17 Sep 2013, Annual FramtidensGruv & Mineralindustri 27-29 Jan 2014, Annual Tampereen Messut Oy/ Tekes 500 800 4000 900 200 Focus area Mining industry, Exploration, mining, equipment suppliers, service and consultants Mining technology Mining industry, metal processing industry, rock material industry and earth construction Exploration, mining, ccompanies, academia, geological surveys. “Nordic PDAC”. Exploration & mining companies, investors, financial community Exploration & mining companies, investors, financial community Seminar, mining, sustainability
  40. 40. SWOT: Strengths • • • • • • Finland and Sweden are underexplored compared to other regions with similar geological endowment in Canada, Australia and West Africa. The infrastructure, both transport lines such as railways and roads and telecommunications are well developed. The attitudes of the public and authorities towards exploration and mining are, in spite of some protests, in general positive in particular in the regions where mining is most important ie the nortern parts of the Sweden and Finland. The ”resource nationalism”, which is spreading in developing countries have few proponents in Europe. On the contrary the political interest in exploration and mining in Brussels is increasing after a trough in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The mining cluster is strong with world leading equipment suppliers and consultants. Academic research is of high international standard. Legislation is up-to-date and open to foreign investors.
  41. 41. SWOT: weaknesses • Government in Sweden has not fully understood the importance of the sector and the support from central authorities is not as solid in Sweden as in Finland. • The availability of experienced staff to carry out all phases of exploration and mining projects is still acceptable but there might be a shortage developing in the next couple of years.
  42. 42. SWOT: opportunities • Major investments in exploration and mining projects are underway in both Sweden and Finland. • European support for the sector will be chanelled to the Arctic regions of Sweden and Finland.
  43. 43. SWOT: threats • New mining law in Finland has put high fees on exploration which might in the long run dampen international interest. • The Mining inspectorate in both Sweden and Finland will not be able to handle applications for exploration and mining permits without long delays up to 6-9 months. • Lack of students entering the mining schools. • Aboriginal issues (Sami people) have been perceived not to have been treated in accordance with international best practice.
  44. 44. Conclusions • Dynamic, underexplored region compared to similar regions world wide. • Highly significant new deposits being discovered, Sakatti for example. • Europe’s leading mining region. • Established mining companies: LKAB, Boliden, Outokumpu and otehrs. • High level of investments continue for rest of decade. • World class equipment manufacturers: Atlas, Metso, Outotec, Sandvik etc. • Dynamic cluster of consultants and emerging producers. • Europe’s leading R&D efforts and well established universities and mining schools. • Leading role in European Innovation Partnership and other EU programs. • Advantageous legislation and regional understanding of mining industry demands.
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