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State of the Market: Nordic mining in a global context - Magnus Ericsson, RMG
 

State of the Market: Nordic mining in a global context - Magnus Ericsson, RMG

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State of the Market: Nordic mining in a global context ...

State of the Market: Nordic mining in a global context
Professor Magnus Ericsson, Director & Co-founder, Raw Materials Group

Mining On Top: Helsinki
16-17 September 2013 | Helsinki

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    State of the Market: Nordic mining in a global context - Magnus Ericsson, RMG State of the Market: Nordic mining in a global context - Magnus Ericsson, RMG Presentation Transcript

    • State of the Market: Nordic mining in a global context Thoriumdrawing:KaiandersSempler. Magnus Ericsson Mining on Top Helsinki, 16/17th September 2013
    • Agenda • Background • Metal prices • Ore production • Exploration • Capex • Nordic countries
    • Manganese drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Background
    • Special properties of metals • High strength • Affordable cost • Conduct heat and electricity • Beautiful • Undestructable Source: T. Graedel, Yale University.
    • Copper use and urbanisation Source: ICSG, Raw Materials Group. Indonesia Pakistan Philippines Switzerland Thailand Zambia 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 10 100 1000 10000 Urbanisation Population (m) Series13 China India USA Germany Sth Korea Japan Brazil Chile Russia UK Malaysia World Population million Urbanisation
    • Growth assumptions 2012-21 061030 Anton Löf 2012 2015 2015-2021 World 2.0 4.4 4.7 United States 3.6 4.0 4.0 EU -0.9 3.5 4.0 Japan -1.0 2.0 3.0 Other advanced economies 2.5 4.5 4.5 China 7.9 6.0 6.0 India 0.7 6.5 6.5 Brazil -3.2 3.0 3.5 Other emerging and developing economies 2.7 6.0 6.5 Russia 2.6 3.5 3.5
    • Manganese drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Background • Metals cannot be replaced. • Extended period of growth. • China/Asia still major engines. • Infrastructure & personal use. • Supply constraints increase.
    • Nickel drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Metal prices
    • Metal price index 061030 Anton Löf 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 RMG Price Index Iron Ore Copper Nickel Zinc Aluminium Lead Potash Phosphate Metallurgical coal Index = 100 year 2000 USD/t
    • Metal prices II 061030 Anton Löf 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e RMG Price Index Gold Silver PGMs Index = 100 year 2000 USD/oz Au, Ag, PGM
    • Metal prices III 061030 Anton Löf 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Lead $/t Aluminium $/t Zinc $/t Potash $/t Metallurgical coal $/t Phosphate $/t Iron Ore $/t Nickel $/t Copper $/t USD/t other USD/t Ni, Cu
    • Nickel drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Metal prices • Weaker prices mid-term. • Bounce back 2015/16. • Long term slow increase.
    • Ore production Neodymium drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
    • Total ore production 061030 Anton Löf 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 Mt Other Gold Copper Iron ore Met coal Thermal coal
    • Ore production Neodymium drawing: Kaianders Sempler. • Metal ores 2012 11 Mt. • Total incl. coal 2012 18 Mt. • 2000-2012: 100 % increase. • 2020 growth slow down.
    • Capex Tungsten drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
    • Mining capex 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 MUSD
    • Capex Tungsten drawing: Kaianders Sempler. • Steep decline 2014. • Rebounce already in 2015? • Top twenty companies ~ 50%. • Fe/Cu/Au > 85 % of total. • Latin America, North America growing. • Australia stable, Africa? • Long term slow growth, not reach 2012 this decade.
    • Vanadium drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Exploration
    • Exploration 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012f2013f2014f2015f2016f2017f2018f Billion USD Note: Nonferrous Source: MEG, forecasts RMG
    • Vanadium drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Exploration • Lack of exploration. • Serious problems for the future.
    • Nordic countries Copper drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
    • European mining I Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2013. 4.31 %
    • European mining II Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2013. 7.89 %
    • Mining investments Sweden 1996-2011 061030 Anton Löf 3% 1996 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 % of total
    • Mining investments 061030 Anton Löf 3% 1996 Kiruna Kaunisvaara Dannemora Sydvaranger Talvivaara Kevitsa Aitik Garpenberg Kittilä Laiva Kankberg Kemi Järn Nickel Koppar Zink/Bly Guld Krom
    • Nordic ore 2010-20 061030 Anton Löf 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Sweden Norway Greenland Finland Mt
    • Nordic exploration 061030 Anton Löf MEUR
    • Nordic countries Copper drawing: Kaianders Sempler. • Leading metals miners. • Continental coal mining not to be overlooked. • Exploration decline. • R&D leading EIP. • Investment activities high. • Increasing difficulties.
    • Rare esrths drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Conclusions • Demand continues but slower growth pace. • Supply constraints increasing. • Prices remains high. • Capex bottoms out 2014. • Nordic countries: • Dominates metals. • But including coal, small actors. • Increasing obstacles. • Joint government action necessary.
    • Copper drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Raw Materials Group Magnus Ericsson PO Box 3127 SE-169 03 Solna Tel: +46-8-744 00 65 E-mail: magnus.ericsson@rmg.se www.intierrarmg.se Kiitos/Tack/Thank you !
    • Elements drawings: Kaianders Sempler. Elements first isolated by Finnish and Swedish chemists and metallurgists in the 18/19th century.
    • Raw Materials Group • Part of the IntierraRMG group since 2012. • 30 years industry leadership in data, mapping, analysis and reporting. • IntierraLive and Raw Materials Data. • Strategy development: – Mining companies, equipment & service. • Mineral policy, investment promotion: – Governments, International organisations. • Pre-feasibility/Feasibility studies: – Financial institutions, companies.