0
Global iron ore: new import areas and the
Chinese slowdown?
Mining on top: Stockholm

Anton Löf
Senior Iron Ore Analyst CO...
Outline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

The Iron ore industry
China
New import areas?
China today
New export areas?
Iron ore prices
Summary
Iron ore mines 2012

Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
Global iron ore production
2 000
1 800
1 600

1 400
Australia
1 200

China

1 000

India
Brazil

800

Russian Federation

...
Iron ore production by country 2012

Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
Crude steel production

Total world crude steel production
1 800 000
1 600 000

1 400 000

kt

1 200 000
1 000 000
800 000...
Crude steel production

1 800 000
1 600 000
1 400 000
1 200 000
1 000 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
200 000
0

China

2012

...
Global iron ore imports

1 200

1 000
Other

800

EU27
Japan

600

Korea, Republic of
China, Taiwan Province of

400

Chin...
Total iron ore imports

Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
Chinese population

1 600 000

80.0

1 400 000

70.0

1 200 000

60.0

1 000 000

50.0

800 000

40.0

600 000

30.0

400 ...
WORLD MINING to 2030
% of global mining

70

Europe

60
USA
50
China

40
30

USSR/CIS

20

Australia/Canada

10
0
1850 187...
World population

Chart Title
9 000 000

70.0

8 000 000

60.0

7 000 000
50.0

6 000 000
5 000 000

40.0

4 000 000

30.0...
Potential new importers, population

1 600 000
1 400 000
1 200 000
1 000 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
200 000
—

70
60
50
I...
Iron ore projects

Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
Chinese crude steel production

80000
70000
60000

kt

50000

2009
2010

40000

2011
2012

30000

2013
20000
10000
0
Jan

...
A chinese forecast

Source: China Metallurgical Mining Association
Chinese production

1 400
1 200
1 000
China iron ore
production

800
600

China ore
production
(unconverted)

400
200

201...
World iron ore demand

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201...
05/01/2009
16/07/2009
01/10/2009
16/12/2009
05/03/2010
25/05/2010
10/08/2010
26/10/2010
13/01/2011
30/03/2011
21/06/2011
0...
dec-08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030

Iron...
Conclusions

Summary

Molybdenum drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
Summary
We estimate that the world iron ore market will be characterized
by tight conditions for at least a few years to c...
Thank you !
Anton Löf
PO Box 3127
SE-169 03 Solna, Sweden
anton.lof@rmg.se
Tel: +46-8-744 00 65
Fax: +46-8-744 0066

www.r...
Metals first isolated in
Sweden/Finland
Please visit www.rmg.se
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Global iron ore: new import areas and Chinese slowdown?

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Global iron ore: new import areas and Chinese slowdown?
– Anton Löf, Raw Materials Group; Senior Iron Ore Consultant

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Transcript of "Global iron ore: new import areas and Chinese slowdown?"

  1. 1. Global iron ore: new import areas and the Chinese slowdown? Mining on top: Stockholm Anton Löf Senior Iron Ore Analyst COO, Raw Materials Group anton.lof@rmg.se
  2. 2. Outline • • • • • • • The Iron ore industry China New import areas? China today New export areas? Iron ore prices Summary
  3. 3. Iron ore mines 2012 Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
  4. 4. Global iron ore production 2 000 1 800 1 600 1 400 Australia 1 200 China 1 000 India Brazil 800 Russian Federation 600 Other 400 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: UNCTAD, Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
  5. 5. Iron ore production by country 2012 Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
  6. 6. Crude steel production Total world crude steel production 1 800 000 1 600 000 1 400 000 kt 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 0
  7. 7. Crude steel production 1 800 000 1 600 000 1 400 000 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 0 China 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 Rest of the world 1993 kt Chinese influence on total crude steel production
  8. 8. Global iron ore imports 1 200 1 000 Other 800 EU27 Japan 600 Korea, Republic of China, Taiwan Province of 400 China 200 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: UNCTAD, Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
  9. 9. Total iron ore imports Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
  10. 10. Chinese population 1 600 000 80.0 1 400 000 70.0 1 200 000 60.0 1 000 000 50.0 800 000 40.0 600 000 30.0 400 000 20.0 200 000 10.0 — — 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Chinese population China urban population Proportion urban population
  11. 11. WORLD MINING to 2030 % of global mining 70 Europe 60 USA 50 China 40 30 USSR/CIS 20 Australia/Canada 10 0 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 Sources: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm and Sames. 6 resource rich developing countries
  12. 12. World population Chart Title 9 000 000 70.0 8 000 000 60.0 7 000 000 50.0 6 000 000 5 000 000 40.0 4 000 000 30.0 total population total urbanised population proportion urban 3 000 000 20.0 2 000 000 10.0 1 000 000 — — 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
  13. 13. Potential new importers, population 1 600 000 1 400 000 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 — 70 60 50 India 40 India MENA 30 MENA Indonesia 20 Indonesia 10 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 —
  14. 14. Iron ore projects Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.
  15. 15. Chinese crude steel production 80000 70000 60000 kt 50000 2009 2010 40000 2011 2012 30000 2013 20000 10000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
  16. 16. A chinese forecast Source: China Metallurgical Mining Association
  17. 17. Chinese production 1 400 1 200 1 000 China iron ore production 800 600 China ore production (unconverted) 400 200 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 0
  18. 18. World iron ore demand 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
  19. 19. 05/01/2009 16/07/2009 01/10/2009 16/12/2009 05/03/2010 25/05/2010 10/08/2010 26/10/2010 13/01/2011 30/03/2011 21/06/2011 06/09/2011 21/11/2011 08/02/2012 26/04/2012 16/07/2012 01/10/2012 14/12/2012 14/03/2013 10/06/2013 30/08/2013 USD Iron ore prices, TSI 62 % Fe 250 200 150 100 Iron ore fines 62 % Fe, USD/t Average yearly price 50 0
  20. 20. dec-08 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Iron ore prices, forecast 180 160 140 120 100 Historical 80 Low forecast 60 High forecast 40 20 0
  21. 21. Conclusions Summary Molybdenum drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
  22. 22. Summary We estimate that the world iron ore market will be characterized by tight conditions for at least a few years to come, although prices will decline, as new production comes on stream, they will remain on a high level. The main factors influencing the market include: • Chinese steel demand, demand drivers remain in place, will grow considerably slower than during the past decade, while demand in the rest of the world will pick up. • World steel demand and production will increase at rates that are high in a historical perspective but nevertheless lower than during the previous decade. • Increasing supply constraints. • Chinese iron ore production will remain significantly lower than domestic demand.
  23. 23. Thank you ! Anton Löf PO Box 3127 SE-169 03 Solna, Sweden anton.lof@rmg.se Tel: +46-8-744 00 65 Fax: +46-8-744 0066 www.rmg.se www.intierrarmg.se NIckel drawing: Kaianders Sempler.
  24. 24. Metals first isolated in Sweden/Finland Please visit www.rmg.se
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