8. How would you figure the general shape/size of the product?
9. modeling wire clay paper scale
10. So what justhappened there?
11. Rate-BasedGoals By the time you try 20 things,Say the thingsyou try have a  64% chance of success5% chance ofsuccess… By the time you try 50 things,  92% chance of success
12. So to maximize therate of learning,we dramaticallyminimize thetime to try things
13. Don’t Guess.Learn.
14. Don’t “Fail.”Learn.
15. How would we prototype… a Business Model? What Conversations Need to Happen?  Act them out! What Processes Need to Work?  Prototype their operation!
16. How would we prototype… a Software System? What screens would people see?  Sketch them and use immediately! What function does it need to provide?  Simulate it!
17. How would we prototype… a Machine / Device? What is it’s physical form?  Simulate it! What is it’s function?  Try it the cheapest way you can
18. How would we prototype… a Marketing Campaign? What will people need to know/feel?  Draw, present to strangers, listen… What thinking factors into the sale?  Let people know their role / motivation…
19. How do you find a path… from the unknown to a high-quality outcome? the Possible Unknown Outcomes t
20. Research Development maximize rate of learning  drive efficiency/quality1. Branch intobroad & fastexploration 3. Constellate 4. Build your results 2. Extend / prune
21. Benefits of Rates1. Simple way to measure progress2. Immediately actionable – no more waiting3. Allows you evaluate experiments faster4. When you can evaluate faster, you can experiment faster