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Global hr forum2007-pierrealainschieb-oecd international futures programme Global hr forum2007-pierrealainschieb-oecd international futures programme Presentation Transcript

  • OECD INTERNATIONAL FUTURES PROGRAMME By Pierre-Alain Schieb Future Universities and New HR Discipline 25th October 2007 Global HR Forum 2007, Seoul 1
  • What is the OECD? • A forum in which governments work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of interdependence and globalisation • A provider of comparative data, analysis and forecasts to underpin multilateral co- operation © OECD International Futures Programme 2
  • A tool for governments • Born after World War II as the Organisation for European Economic Co-operation to coordinate the Marshall Plan • Transformed in 1961 into the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development with trans-Atlantic and then global reach • Today the OECD has 30 member countries • More than 70 developing and transition economies are engaged in working relationships with the OECD © OECD International Futures Programme 3
  • A global outreach OECD Member Countries Countries/Economies Engaged in Working Relationships with the OECD © OECD International Futures Programme 4
  • OECD’s mission To promote policies designed: to achieve sustainable economic growth and employment and rising standards of living in member countries while maintaining financial stability, so contributing to the development of the world economy to assist sound economic expansion in member countries and other countries in the process of economic development to contribute to growth in world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis Article 1 of the OECD Convention) © OECD International Futures Programme 5
  • OECD International Futures Programme • Created in 1990 to help Member country governments address challenges of the future. • Identify and explore new, emerging policy issues. • Under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. • Multi-disciplinary team. • Involvement of the private sector. © OECD International Futures Programme 6
  • Which kind of global talent? • Talents not just talent • Approach based on recent OECD Futures Projects: what we have learned from… • Main focus on lessons learned from the OECD Futures Projects on: – Emerging Risks in the 21st Century (2000-2003) – Infrastructure to 2030 (2005-2007) © OECD International Futures Programme 7
  • I- Emerging Risks • October 2000 – January 2003: The OECD Futures Project on Emerging Systemic Risks • April 2003: Publication of the Report Emerging Risks in the 21st Century – An Agenda for Action. • May - July 2003: The OECD Project on Large-Scale Disasters. • March 2004: Publication of the Report Large-Scale Disasters – Lessons Learned. • November 2003: Launch of the OECD Futures Project on Risk Management Policies in Selected OECD Countries © OECD International Futures Programme 8
  • © OECD International Futures Programme 9
  • Background An ongoing shift in the nature of major risks and in society’s capacity to manage them: Conventional risks look set to take on new dimensions (due to extreme weather conditions, concentrations of population and wealth, etc.). New hazards are emerging, many of which are characterised by extreme uncertainty and the possibility of extensive and maybe irreversible harm. © OECD International Futures 10
  • Year Type of Disaster Economic Cost % of GDP 995 Kobe earthquake, Japan USD 130 billion over 2% 999 Marmara earthquake, Turkey USD 9-13 billion according to about 6% the SPO USD 6-10 billion according to about 4% the World Bank 992 Hurricane Andrew, U.S. USD 25 billion about 0.5 % 000 Foot and Mouth Disease, UK £6 billion 0.6% 002 Central European flooding, €15 billion about 0.75% Germany, Austria, Czech Republic 001 September 11 USD 120 billion 1.2% rom 1986 BSE in Europe €92 billion 1% (EU 15) 003 SARS USD 60 billion 2% (E/SE Asia) 000 “I-love-you” computer virus USD 8 billion - © OECD International Futures Programme 11
  • Risk areas Natural disasters: earthquakes, floods, storms, solar flares… Technological accidents: nuclear power plants, dams, transportation of chemicals… Health-related risks: infectious diseases, food safety, impacts of pollution… Terrorism and cyber-crime. © OECD International Futures 12
  • Main driving forces shaping the risk landscape in the future Demography: population growth, ageing, urbanisation, migration. Environment: climate change, pollution, etc. Technology: connectedness, speed and pervasiveness of change, new technologies. Economy and society: income discrepancies and poverty, the central role of information, increasing scale and concentration, shifts in regulatory regimes. © OECD International Futures 13
  • Air passenger traffic projections © OECD International Futures Programme 14 Source: Airbus
  • Projections of international tourist arrivals to 2020 © OECD International Futures Programme 15 Source: World Tourism Organization
  • Major migration patterns in the early 21st Century Source: Population Reference Bureau © OECD International Futures Programme 16
  • Urban population (in billions) in developed and in developing countries © OECD International Futures Programme 17 Source: UN Population
  • OECD age pyramids, 1995 and 2020 © OECD International Futures Programme 18 Source: UN Population
  • Proportion of foreigners in selected OECD countries, 1971-1999 % 10 9 8 7 1971 1999 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Austria Denmark Finland* France Germany Italy Netherlands Norway Spain Sweden 19 Source: Council of Europe *Data from 1976
  • Projected CO2 emissions from OECD countries, 1990-2020 ource: International Energy Agency © OECD International Futures Programme 20
  • Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region Source: International Energy Agency © OECD International Futures Programme 21
  • Linking global challenges to emerging risks and policy concerns Demography Environment Technology Economy + Society Climate Interconnected- Migration Urbanisation Mobility Concentration Privatisation variability ness Flooding Infectious Technical Critical infrastructure diseases accidents vulnerability Earthquakes 22
  • Key Findings In many sectors in OECD countries, risk management systems are ill-prepared for the major risks of the 21st Century. Cost of transactions are increasing due to security concerns. Opportunities: security economy: now about 350 billion US$ from approximately100 billion US$ in 2001. Need for human skills, competencies, reform of curricula. Need for enhanced science and technology efforts. © OECD International Futures 23
  • Needs for competencies: from the individual to experts, decision makers Welfare state: new balance of risks allocation in OECD countries implies that « risk management » should be part of education background at primary, secondary school systems Managers/engineers/lawyers: need to be trained as part of their core curricula (on risk management, liabilities/insurance and regulations) Some of them need to be trained as expert/dedicated professionals vis MSc/Ph.Ds) both for research and corporate tracks © OECD International Futures Programme 24
  • Needs for technology and research Improve support for promising new technologies. Explore and develop tools that reduce the vulnerability and increase the resilience of systems. Specific recommendation for further OECD work. © OECD International Futures 25
  • II-Infrastructure to 2030 Infrastructure Infrastructure 2006 2007 © OECD International Futures 26
  • Potential bottleneck: static approach ODA trend is on the down side Private sector funding (particularly in non OECD Countries) is on a declining path Public deficits are important or raising How to re-ignite the engine ? How to channel the funds into infrastructure? © OECD International Futures Programme 27
  • Potential bottleneck: dynamic approach Financial needs will be on a raising trend: – catch up, new capacity – replacement – upgrading existing infrastructure – maintenance/operational costs © OECD International Futures 28
  • The OECD Futures Project: 2005-2006 A platform for a multilateral dialogue between stakeholders An opportunity to raise awareness about the infrastructure sector issues, potential benefits and opportunities The identification and promotion of emerging responses An option to speed up the multilateral process and shape policy issues © OECD International Futures 29
  • Governmental Participation Ministries: Ministries: Ministries: Ministries: transport energy industry, IT or horizontal role activities activities economy France France France Canada Netherlands Denmark U.K Switzerland Denmark Government of Quebec U.K Portugal Spain Sweden © OECD International Futures Programme 30
  • Phase 1: Assessment of needs, potential demand and the future evolution of the sector Critical assessments of existing reports What are the key factors driving the future evolution of the sector? Longer term prospects for needs and potential demand Cross sectoral interdependencies/synergies © OECD International Futures Programme 31
  • Drivers and key trends Covering long term trends in 8 areas: 1. Geo-political developments 2. Macro-economy 3. Public Finance/financial markets 4. Population 5. Mobility 6. Environment 7. Technology 8. Governance © OECD International Futures 32
  • Electricity Sector Investment to 2030 (IEA, Trevor Morgan) Reference scenario: OECD: 3,940 trillion $ Transition economies 0,653 trillion $ Developing countries 5,205 trillion $ Total: 9,798 trillion $ IEA © OECD International Futures 33
  • Electricity sector investment to 2030 Alternative policy scenario: - 15,7 % OECD: 3,184 trillion $ (-19,2%) Transition economies 0,515 trillion $ (-21,2%) Developing countries 4,564 trillion $ (-12,3%) Total: 8,263 trillion $ (-15,7%) IEA, February 2006 © OECD International Futures 34
  • Water investment to 2030 (R. Ashley,A.Cashman, Sheffield, UK) OECD and « big five » only : to 2015: 772 billion $/year to 2025 1 trillion $/year © OECD International Futures 35
  • Transport Investment to 2030 (David Stambrook, Canada) Road transport: 220 to 290 billion $ a year (2/3 in OECD countries) Rail transport: 50 to 60 billion $ a year (2/3 in OECD countries) Policy matters: potential shift of 10% from road to rail © OECD International Futures 36
  • Telecom Investment to 2030 (Erik. Bohlin,Simon Forge and alii., Sweden and UK) Global investment needs: 2005: 650 billion $ 2010: 745 billion $ 2020: 572 billion $ 2030: 148 billion $ © OECD International Futures 37
  • Lessons learned: Change of ranking: -Water comes first (OECD +Big five): 770 Billion$/year, 1 trillion $ by 2025 -Telecom: range of 650, 745 and 572 Billion$/year (global) - Electricity: 350 Billion$/year (global) - Transport: 220-290 Billion$/year (Road) + (50-60 Billion$/year Rail) on a global basis © OECD International Futures 38
  • Other implications: 1- New urban patterns 2- Interdependencies, partial substitutions, enhancement effects… 3- New scenarios for urban systems 4- Smaller scale interconnected infrastructure and possible implications © OECD International Futures 39
  • Dispersion of residency and work places with teleworking and teleshopping - Urbania Suburbia Rural Suburbia Rural/semi-rural Telecomia Urbania Rural/semi-suburbia 1700-1910 1910-2020 Trend after 2020 + Dominance of the city as Population migrates to the Cities shrink and tend to return to manufacturing and trade suburbs in many OECD residential areas, with centre (largely in the OECD countries entertainment and hotel functions community) SCF Associates 2005 Qimon Forge all rights reserved © OECD International Futures 40
  • Extremes of exchanges in infrastructure changes with telecommunications substitutions Infrastructure element Investment increase or decrease First estimate % change increase (+ve) or decrease (-ve) Road transport infrastructure -- -5 to -10% Air travel (business) infrastructure -- -5 to 10% Fuel oil – car, air transport - -5% Health care -- -10% Education - or same -5 to -10% Justice --- -20% Electricity supply + +5% Gas supply + +5% Heating oil + +5% Water supply + +5% Sanitation + +5% © OECD International Futures 41
  • Source : Intelligent Infrastrucutre Futures / The Scenarios – Towards 2055 Office of Science and Technology © OECD International Futures 42 Programme
  • Source : Intelligent Infrastrucutre Futures / The Scenarios – Towards 2055 Office of Science and Technology © OECD International Futures 43 Programme
  • ource : Intelligent Infrastrucutre Futures / The Scenarios – Towards 2055 44 ffice of Science and Technology © OECD International Futures Programme
  • © OECD International Futures 45
  • Possible challenges for project design? Huge opportunities but a financial gap From centralised to decentralised, smaller scale From large equipment to small equipment and perhaps different suppliers From ground to mobile/on board networked systems From « conventional » to new policy challenges (funding, back up systems, safety, liabilities..) Shortage of human capital (quantitative and qualitative basis) © OECD International Futures 46
  • Implications for competencies: There are needs for high skill workers at all levels: – Research and development, in existing fields (physics) , new fields (bio-nano..) and convergent technologies – Design of projects, engineering (see shortages by 2010 of 5500-7000 engineers in oil companies) – System operators, managers,technicians – Because of « critical infrastructure » (cf. risks) automated systems will create issues of « software reliability – a new frontier » © OECD International Futures 47
  • III- Bioeconomy to 2030 (ongoing Project 2006-2008) Covers health, agri-food, industry bio-based applications… Preliminary results on healthcare: potential success of genomics will imply a complete re-design of healthcare systems with implications for competencies: - new focus on prevention - new type of drug development - new « breed » of physicians in order to «tailor/customize» the diagnosis/cure… © OECD International Futures 48
  • IV- Space 2030, Forum on Space Economics (2003-2008) Covers civil and commercial space based applications in fields such as satelitte broadcasting, navigation/localisation services, earth observation… Pervasive applications (more than 100 space based applications have been traced) Because the upstream part (launchers, rockets) is cyclical there is now a « greying of the labor force » and concerns about replacement. New applications and services (remote sensing data, value added services, GIS..) as well as upstream part (new propulsion systems) will require new entrants © OECD International Futures 49
  • Overall lessons learned from 1 to IV: Although student interest in S&T is declining (relative to the number of students), there are huge needs for replacement of existing labour forces and new competencies From demographics we know that the gap could be « irreversible » in the very short term (it takes time to train or re-train people!!) Education policies will be very important in solving the issues Migration policies will be the other field of great interest © OECD International Futures 50
  • Next steps The Government of Korea and the private sector are always invited to participate OECD Futures Project on the Bioeconomy to 2030 – ongoing 2007-2008 The Future of International Migrations to OECD Countries (October 2008) but preparation needs to be financed on a voluntary basis by participating countries or the private sector © OECD International Futures 51
  • Pierre-Alain.Schieb@oecd.org www.oecd.org/futures Thank you. © OECD International Futures 52