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Education and new global challenges elizabeth king, global hr forum 2010.pdf, seoul, korea

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Since the 19th century, education has been a continuing driving force for social progress. However, amidst the broader trends of globalization, technological advances, declining birth rate, aging …

Since the 19th century, education has been a continuing driving force for social progress. However, amidst the broader trends of globalization, technological advances, declining birth rate, aging population and talent mobility, the society has been significantly disconnected from the past one. By extension, we can reasonably anticipate the future that is even more disconnected from the present. Education must, therefore, change in its content and methodology in order to adapt to the approaching future society and the requirements it will present. Globalization and technological shifts, on the other hand, have served as forces that bring about these changes. This session will aim to forecast the mega trends in education and to propose how education should adapt as we transition into a different world of the future. There will also be discussions on effective and diverse ways of global collaboration among institutions of formal and informal education to train the next generation leaders of the global economy post-crisis.

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  • 1. Education and New Global Challenges g Elizabeth M. King Seoul, Korea 1 The World Bank October 2010
  • 2. How will the world look in 2020? What will be the demands on workers and education systems? 2
  • 3. More of the world’s population will be living  i h l d l d iin the less developed countries Estimates, 2000‐2050, in thousands 9000000 10000000 7000000 8000000 Least developed  countries 5000000 6000000 7000000 4000000 5000000 Less developed  regions, excluding  least developed  2000000 3000000 countries More developed  0 1000000 regions 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Friday, October 15, 2010
  • 4. Geographical distribution of the world’sGeographical distribution of the world s  population in 2050 Source: WordMapper.org ,  Copyright 2006 SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan)
  • 5. More of the world’s young population will be living  i th l d l d t i 2500000 in the less developed countries Estimates for ages 0‐14, 2000‐2050, in thousands 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Friday, October 15, 2010
  • 6. 65 69 70-74 75+ Population Projections in Low Income Countries 2020 Demographic futures 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69Demographic futures  shape education  challenges 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 challenges What does demographics 120000 70000 20000 30000 80000 0-4 5-9 10 14 Female Male What does demographics  tell us about demands on  education system? 75 Population Projections in Middle Income Countries 2020 y High dependency ratio in 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ High dependency ratio in  LICs: adults have to take  care of more children 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50 54 Tax base is smaller in LICs  than in MICs Demographic dividends in 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24Demographic dividends in  MICs 250000 150000 50000 50000 150000 250000 Female Male 6
  • 7. The rise of new economic stars R l GDP (PPP) P j ti 2004 2015 (U i 1991 2003 A G th R t )Trillions of 1995 Real GDP (PPP): Projections 2004-2015 (Using 1991-2003 Average Growth Rates) 16 Trillions of 1995 international $ India China Brazil Canada France Germany 14 y Italy Japan Mexico Russian Federation United Kingdom United States China 12 United States 8 10 India France Russian 6 8 Germany United KingdomItaly Mexico Federation Brazil 4 Japan Canada 2 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 7 Rodriguez, 2008
  • 8. Projected size of economies compared j p to the US economy, 2007 and 2050 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP – March 2008
  • 9. Long‐run growth projectionsg g p j PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP – March 2008
  • 10. Short term gro th projectionsShort‐term growth projections World Developing countriesWorld Developing countries 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP ‐2.2 2.7 3.2 1.2 5.2 5.8 Real GDP (PPP) ‐1.0 3.5 4.0 1.8 5.5 6.0 • Main drag on global growth from high income• Main drag on global growth  from high‐income  countries  • Robust prospects in developing countries for  recovery in 2010 10
  • 11. Percentage of population living with less than PPP$2/day Poverty has declined … but less so in Africa Percentage of population living with less than PPP$2/day 1990 2005 2015 2020 East Asia & Pacific 79.8 38.7 19.4 14.3 China 84.6 36.3 16.0 12.0 Europe and Central Asia 6.9 8.9 5.0 4.1 Latin America &  C ibb 19.7 16.6 11.1 9.7 Caribbean Middle East & North  Africa 19.7 16.9 8.3 6.6 Africa South Asia 82.7 73.9 57.0 51.0 India 82 6 75 6 58 0 51 9India 82.6 75.6 58.0 51.9 Sub‐Saharan Africa 76.2 73.0 59.6 55.4 11
  • 12. Population living on less than $2.00 a dayPopulation living on less than $2.00 a day  (as  % of population; projections) 70 0 80.0 90.0 50 0 60.0 70.0 30 0 40.0 50.0 10 0 20.0 30.0 0.0 10.0 1990 2005 2015 20201990 2005 2015 2020 East Asia & Pacific China Europe and Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia India Sub Saharan Africa WorldIndia Sub‐Saharan Africa World Source: World Bank, January 2010 
  • 13. What do these changes mean for educationWhat do these changes mean for education  challenges? How to increase learning opportunities in countries  where the school‐age population is growing  rapidly?p y How to afford post‐basic education while still  di b i d ti ?expanding basic education? How to improve the quality of education while stillHow to improve the quality of education while still  expanding education?  How to ensure that youth enter the workforce with  productive and employable skills? 13
  • 14. hildEvery child  has a right to  an education A country’s wealth and its prospects for  development depends on the quality of its  an education.  And people— h kill d i i f i kAnd  education  yields huge the skills and creativity of its workers,  th bilit f it l d t ll d t One additional year yields huge  benefits for  individuals,  the capability of its leaders to govern well and to  manage its resources, and  of schooling  increases an  individual’s wage by Countries with high female  education coped with  extreme weather events families,  communities,  the ability of its adult generation to raise healthy,  educated and happy children the next individual s wage by  5‐10%. extreme weather events  better than countries with  same income and weather  diti (Bl kand society.  educated and happy children – the next  generation. “Half the reduction in child  mortality over the past 40 years can  b ib d h b conditions (Blankespoor,  Dasgupta, Wheeler 2010) be attributed to the better  education of women.” (Lancet 9/2010) One additional year in  14 average education of women  reduces child deaths by 9.5%.
  • 15. “Education is the only means to sever the  vicious cycle of poverty. The best welfare is  to dole out opportunities for education andto dole out opportunities for education and  jobs. My only wish is to encourage those  who have difficulties in educating their  children and help the educated children  land a job.“ President Lee Myung‐bak President ofPresident Lee Myung‐bak, President of  South Korea, 2009
  • 16. Jobs and work skills  Trainin Education TrainingInnovation
  • 17. Worker skills are a constraint for enterprises 45 p % of Firms identifying labor skills level as a  major Constraint 3935 40 major Constraint  World Bank’s Enterprise Survey Results32 30 25 25 30 25 24 20 15 20 15 11 5 10 0
  • 18. C l kill d dComplex skills are needed 90 Does your main job involve: 70 80 90 Does your main job involve: (% of respondents answering "yes") 50 60 30 40 0 10 20 0 Solving unforeseen bl Learning new things Choose or change methods f k Undertaking complex tasks Monotonous tasks problems of work Old EU Member States New EU Member States, excl. Bulgaria and Romania 18 New EU Member States, excl. Bulgaria and Romania Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey Source: European Survey of Working Conditions 2005
  • 19. Rapid growth in Mobile & Internet usersp g
  • 20. R id th i bil & I t tRapid growth in mobile & Internet users 7,000 6,000  7,000  5,000  World mobile subscriptions World Population 3 000 4,000  millions) OECD mobile subscribers EAP mobile subscriptions SSA bil b i i 2,000  3,000  (m SSA mobile subscriptions World Fixed Internet Subscribers 1,000  ‐ 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sources: http://ddp.worldbank.org, http://databank.worldbank.org
  • 21. Firms using new information technologies g g % of Firms using email to communicate 70 80 % of Firms using email to communicate  with clients/suppliers World Bank Enterprise Survey 73 72 72 64 61 59 50 60 70 53 44 30 40 50 10 20 30 0 10
  • 22. Youth employment is highly vulnerable to p y g y global economic crises
  • 23. Education Climate changeg
  • 24. Climate change threatens all countries g
  • 25. Small and poor countries are financially p y vulnerable to extreme weather 
  • 26. More girls’ education helps countries’  ili t t th diti Climate Change Extreme Weather Losses 1970‐1999 (Historical and Best Practice) resilience to extreme weather conditions Climate Change Extreme Weather Losses 1970 1999 (Historical and Best Practice) Blankespoor, Dasgupta and Wheeler, 2010
  • 27. So … what do these  challenges mean forchallenges mean for  education reform? 27
  • 28. Greater demand  100 Primary net enrollment rates by income group for post‐primary  d i 8090 % education 06070 Increase in net enrollment  rates in primary education  5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income … and primary completion  rates pp g World Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, Sep 2010 00 Primary completion rates by income group Growing demand for  secondary and tertiary 809010 secondary and tertiary  education 506070 % 40 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Low income Lower middle income 28 Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income World Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, Sep 2010
  • 29. … but large disparities remain within g p countries % of youth ages 15‐19 who completed a given grade: Latest available data 0 8 1 0 8 1 0 8 1 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Poorest quintile Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest quintile Poorest quintile Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest quintile Poorest quintile Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest quintile 29 Indonesia 2007Egypt 2008Nigeria 2008
  • 30. Within‐country inequalities are as big as —t cou t y equa t es a e as b g as if not bigger — than between‐country inequalities 1 Grade 6 completion of 15‐19 year‐olds  0.8 0.4 0.6 portion 0.2 Prop 0 ndi nda ger aso sau had ola que aso gal pia Mali nea ros A.R. eria car oire nia nia ogo nin one ngo nda bia awi oon tho nia ep. bon eria bia ana and nya bia rica we Burun Rwan Nig BurkinaFa Guinea-Biss Ch Ango Mozambiq BurkinaFa Seneg Ethio M Guin Comor C.A Libe Madagasc Coted'Ivo Maurita Maurita To Ben SierraLeo DRCon Ugan Gam Mala Camero Lesot Tanza CongoRe Gab Nige Zam Gha Swazila Ken Nami SouthAfr Zimbab G Richest quintile Poorest quintile Average grade 6 completion Source: Filmer, Deon. 2010. “Education Attainment and Enrollment around the World: An International Database.” http://econ.worldbank.org/projects/edattain. 
  • 31. … but not enough learning… but not enough learning Proportion 1 Proportion of 15-19 year olds who can .8who can read a simple .6 sentence, by highest grade .4 About 50% of  Kenyan youth  who completed  completed 0.2 p grade 6 cannot  read a simple  sentence 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Grade Dominican Rep 2007 Kenya 2008 09 sentence 90% of Malian  h hDominican Rep. 2007 Kenya 2008-09 Mali 2006 Nepal 2006 youth who  completed grade  4 cannot read a  31 simple sentence
  • 32. Beyond enrollment, a focus on learning Inequalities in SACMEQ 2000, Reading test scores Beyond enrollment, a focus on learning q g 650 550 600 500 400 450 350 wi ia ia ho da ca ue na nd us ia ya es Malaw Zamb Namib Lesoth Ugand outhAfric ozambiqu Botswan Swazilan Mauritiu Tanzan Keny Seychelle So Mo S Richest quintile of students Poorest quintile of students Average score Source: Filmer, based on analysis of SACMEQ 2000 database
  • 33. Beyond enrollment, a focus on learning TIMSS 2007, Grade 8 Mathematics test scores Beyond enrollment, a focus on learning 650 550 600 650 450 500 550 350 400 450 250 300 350 250 Ghana Salvador otswana olombia Morocco Algeria Egypt rabRep. donesia Iran Georgia Tunisia Jordan Mongolia Turkey Thailand Lebanon ndHerz. Romania Ukraine Bulgaria Malaysia Serbia Armenia ithuania dStates ianFed. Rep.Of ElS Bo Co M SyrianAr In M T L BosniaAn R B M A L United Russ Korea, Richest quintile of students Poorest quintile of students Average score Source: Filmer, based on analysis of TIMSS 2007 database
  • 34. Strategic directions for the World Bank for 2020Strategic directions for the World Bank for 2020 Bank’s mission in  education  Overall purpose of  in education at the  country level Increase learning for all country level Improve global knowledge: Improve policy &  investment effectiveness in Strategic directions  to achieve results Building a high‐quality  knowledge base of data &  analyses investment effectiveness in  countries by Strengthening countries’  analyseseducation systems  I l t ti Technical & financial  support to countries ‐‐Technical support for  Knowledge ‐‐System diagnostic  tools for monitoring  Strategic  partnerships ‐‐ Aid agenciesImplementation  levers system strengthening ‐‐Results‐based  financing & benchmarking ‐‐Learning  assessments I l i & ‐‐ Aid agencies ‐‐ NGOs & private  sector ‐‐ CSOs ‐‐Multisectoral approach ‐‐Impact evaluations &  research CSOs
  • 35. Di ti t l f d ti tDiagnostic tools for education system System diagnostic tools to:  A l li t f f ti ithAnalyze alignment of core functions  with  allocation of resources and authority Measure outputs and outcomes not onlyMeasure outputs and outcomes, not only  inputs Measure learning outcomes and skillsMeasure learning outcomes and skills,  not only school enrollment Monitor not only public providers butMonitor not only public providers but  also non‐state providers Use to benchmark systemUse to benchmark system 35
  • 36. Res lts based financingResults‐based financing From financing inputs to financing outputs and results  Di b t i t ifi d i l t tiDisbursement against pre‐specified implementation  progress and performance targets Disbursements could be linked to: ProductsProducts Changes in institutions Changes in incentive structures Changes in policiesg p 36
  • 37. What is an  education  system? Central & local  governments y An education  system is a  network of  St t & Communities,   power &  accountability  l i hi State & non‐ state providers  of learning , private sector,  CSOs,   households Relationships of  t bilit relationships  for delivering  l i lt householdsaccountabilitylearning results Foundation of evidence: reliable data at all levels of the 37 Foundation of evidence: reliable data at all levels of the  system; know‐how about what works, what doesn’t, and why
  • 38. Education and New Global Challenges g Elizabeth M. King Seoul, Korea 38 The World Bank October 2010

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