HOW GOOD ARE YOU?
10%, 30%, 50%, 70%, 80%?
What should be your
In real life:
Sixty percent of executives interviewed by McKinsey
Consultants believed that decisions in their
organizations were “50/50.” What does this mean? It
means that they believe their decisions are no better
than tossing a coin and calling heads or tails! The
McKinsey Report believed you can improve your
return on investment with 6.9 percentage points if you
moved your organization from the bottom to the top
quartile (“The case for behavioral strategy” in:
McKinsey Quarterly, May 2010).
We creat simple
Gerd Gigerenzer, Director of
the Centre for Adaptive Behaviour
& Cognition, Max Planck Institute
for Human Development, Berlin.
Studies show that a woman in her forties has a 1.4%
chance to have breast cancer.!
What is the probability that
she has breast cancer, if
she tests positive for breast
cancer with a mammogram?!
Keep in mind that 75% of women with breast cancer
that take the test, will show a positive test result (the
results conﬁrm that they have breast cancer).
However, some10% of women WHO DO NOT HAVE
breast cancer will also test positive!