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CABOT’S 21ST ANNUAL INVESTMENT CONFERENCE & LUNCHEON Friday, September 24, 2010
Stocks Today…Safer Than You Think? Presented by: Robert T. Lutts, President & Chief Investment Officer
A CHANGING WORLD “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor is it the most intelligent, it is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”   – Charles Darwin
OUTLINE ,[object Object]
How Risky is the Stock Market Today? Adjusting to a new environment.
Why Should One Take Risk Today?
Alternatives to equities are fading (cash, bonds, real estate)
Long-term conditions excellent (Cycle favors stocks today)
What Sectors of the Economy Offer the Best Opportunities?
What Countries of the World Do We Favor Today – Why?
Optimum Strategy for 2011/2012,[object Object]
Deleveraging cycle – sectors to avoid
Top line growth will be challenging – manage profits
Consumers consuming at lower levels – will persist
Employment growth elusive – may recover slowly
Global growth concerns and deflation concerns,[object Object]
Earnings – have been growing nicely. The next phase will be more difficult.
Valuations – SP 500 Trades at 11.5 X 2011 earnings
InvestorPsychology – Investors have given up on equities today. This means opportunity.
New World Growth Engines – China, India, and Brazil,[object Object]
Total U.S. debt, including domestic debt and foreign debt (which includes financial debt, household debt and government debt). Now three times to GDP what it was in 1952. Source: www.creditwritedowns.com
WHERE ARE WE TODAY?Long-term Perspective
WHERE ARE WE TODAY?Short-term Perspective 3-Year Chart of 10-Year Treasury Yields
THREE REASONS FOR EQUITIES NOW REASON #1: Low 10-year Returns = High Expected Returns DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE 10-YEAR ROLLING RETURNS Cycle Now Favors Stocks
THREE REASONS FOR EQUITIES NOW REASON #2: Dividend Yields > 10-Year Treasury Yield! DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE DIVIDEND YIELD VS 10-YR BOND
THREE REASONS FOR EQUITIES NOW REASON #3: Fund Flows Excellent Contra-Indicator! DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE DIVIDEND YIELD VS 10-YR BOND 1/1/09 – 8/31/10  Bonds Net In +$452 Billion 1/1/09 – 8/31/10  Equities Net out -$42 Billion
EARNINGS YIELD VS. 10-YEAR YIELD 6% Spread  Very Unusual Divergence! To Narrow Spread:  Stocks Prices May Increase and Bonds Yields Rise
WHERE WE ARE TODAY
POSITIVE CONSIDERATIONS ,[object Object]

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Stocks Today: Safer Than You Think?

  • 1. CABOT’S 21ST ANNUAL INVESTMENT CONFERENCE & LUNCHEON Friday, September 24, 2010
  • 2. Stocks Today…Safer Than You Think? Presented by: Robert T. Lutts, President & Chief Investment Officer
  • 3. A CHANGING WORLD “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor is it the most intelligent, it is the one that is the most adaptable to change.” – Charles Darwin
  • 4.
  • 5. How Risky is the Stock Market Today? Adjusting to a new environment.
  • 6. Why Should One Take Risk Today?
  • 7. Alternatives to equities are fading (cash, bonds, real estate)
  • 8. Long-term conditions excellent (Cycle favors stocks today)
  • 9. What Sectors of the Economy Offer the Best Opportunities?
  • 10. What Countries of the World Do We Favor Today – Why?
  • 11.
  • 12. Deleveraging cycle – sectors to avoid
  • 13. Top line growth will be challenging – manage profits
  • 14. Consumers consuming at lower levels – will persist
  • 15. Employment growth elusive – may recover slowly
  • 16.
  • 17. Earnings – have been growing nicely. The next phase will be more difficult.
  • 18. Valuations – SP 500 Trades at 11.5 X 2011 earnings
  • 19. InvestorPsychology – Investors have given up on equities today. This means opportunity.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. Total U.S. debt, including domestic debt and foreign debt (which includes financial debt, household debt and government debt). Now three times to GDP what it was in 1952. Source: www.creditwritedowns.com
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. WHERE ARE WE TODAY?Long-term Perspective
  • 27. WHERE ARE WE TODAY?Short-term Perspective 3-Year Chart of 10-Year Treasury Yields
  • 28. THREE REASONS FOR EQUITIES NOW REASON #1: Low 10-year Returns = High Expected Returns DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE 10-YEAR ROLLING RETURNS Cycle Now Favors Stocks
  • 29. THREE REASONS FOR EQUITIES NOW REASON #2: Dividend Yields > 10-Year Treasury Yield! DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE DIVIDEND YIELD VS 10-YR BOND
  • 30. THREE REASONS FOR EQUITIES NOW REASON #3: Fund Flows Excellent Contra-Indicator! DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE DIVIDEND YIELD VS 10-YR BOND 1/1/09 – 8/31/10 Bonds Net In +$452 Billion 1/1/09 – 8/31/10 Equities Net out -$42 Billion
  • 31. EARNINGS YIELD VS. 10-YEAR YIELD 6% Spread Very Unusual Divergence! To Narrow Spread: Stocks Prices May Increase and Bonds Yields Rise
  • 32. WHERE WE ARE TODAY
  • 33.
  • 34. TIME is Important After Crisis – We are healing and adapting now. Risk taking is slowly coming back into the markets.
  • 35. Economic Data – Glass is more than half full today.
  • 36.
  • 37. One needs to think positively when all others are fearful.
  • 38. Markets today are looking forward 12-18 months.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43. WILL THE BULL RETURN? IF SO, WHEN?
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52. CLIENT SERVICESomething Cabot Works Hard to Provide
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56. WHERE ARE THE COMING OPPORTUNITIES? Internet Networks are changing everything. Internet arrived about 25 years ago. Email gained popularity in the late 1980s. An internet that links 100 million people is not worth 10 times one that links 10 million people. In fact, due to massive connective power, a network that links 100 million people is really worth much more than ten times the one that links 10 million. Most of the productivity benefits in the internet are in the future. We are anticipating many great investment opportunities in this space.
  • 57.
  • 59. Software – Smart Phones, E-Readers, Migration to Digital
  • 60. Search – Application Market, Medical Applications
  • 62. Unique Use of Internet WHERE ARE THE COMING OPPORTUNITIES?
  • 63. WHERE ARE THE COMING OPPORTUNITIES? Energy Energy complex is the single largest sector of our economic world and has changed only moderately in the past 50 years. Cars are essentially the same technology – better, but the same engine. Electricity is also generated pretty much the same as it was 50 years ago. We anticipate some very large opportunities to invest in wealth-creating ideas in the coming decade. Solar, Wind, Advanced Materials, Battery Technology, Clean Energy, Climate Change are just a few of the incredible new developments we expect.Large fortunes will be created for those who think big and invest in the winners!
  • 64.
  • 69.
  • 71. Banks
  • 73. Auto
  • 75.
  • 80. We anticipate outperformance in China for many years.
  • 81.
  • 82. Gold Bull Market – Key Drivers Investment Demand– Investors continue to Allocate new funds to gold. Protection against currency manipulation. Supply Is Constrained– Industry cannot increase production easily – easy places to find gold are already mined. Zero growth in production over last 6-8 years. Central Bankers No Longer a Seller of Gold– Over 2000 Years of History – Gold, Land, & Diamonds have held their purchasing power – many other classes including currency have seen their value distroyed.
  • 83. ALLOCATION TO ALTERNATIVE ASSETS Currency Protection– Gold and Gold mining Shares International Bonds– High-quality sovereign bonds yield plus appreciation assuming country finances are stronger than USA. Fixed-Income Hybrids– High Yield, Preferred, Convertibles Non-US Currency Securities– Yield plus protection from weaker dollar Commodities– Energy, grains and other indexes
  • 84. TO SUCCEED TODAY ONE NEEDS Flexible Thinking. Do not be afraid of change, embrace it! Use Risk Management Techniques Size of positions Loss discipline Diversification strategy Conviction to Invest in the new winners in a world economy changing at breakneck speed – “Sonic Boom” “It will go well, but it will not be relaxing!” Greg Esterbrook
  • 85.
  • 86. Government solutions and new economic thinking will work in time. We will adapt and manage.
  • 87. The Cost: More debt, eventually more inflation, and a weaker dollar relative to stronger economies.
  • 89.