Keynote presentation given by president and chief investment officer, Rob Lutts, of Cabot Money Management at annual conference and luncheon. Rob discusses a changing world and how investors must adapt to this environment.
Disclosure: These seminars are for discussion purposes only. It is not an offer to buy or sell individual securities or investments. Investors should consider their own individual investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of their portfolio carefully before investing. Investments are not FDIC insured and may lose or fluctuate in value. Please request our Form ADV Part II for complete disclosures.
2. Stocks Today…Safer Than You Think? Presented by: Robert T. Lutts, President & Chief Investment Officer
3. A CHANGING WORLD “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor is it the most intelligent, it is the one that is the most adaptable to change.” – Charles Darwin
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5. How Risky is the Stock Market Today? Adjusting to a new environment.
23. Total U.S. debt, including domestic debt and foreign debt (which includes financial debt, household debt and government debt). Now three times to GDP what it was in 1952. Source: www.creditwritedowns.com
27. WHERE ARE WE TODAY?Short-term Perspective 3-Year Chart of 10-Year Treasury Yields
28. THREE REASONS FOR EQUITIES NOW REASON #1: Low 10-year Returns = High Expected Returns DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE 10-YEAR ROLLING RETURNS Cycle Now Favors Stocks
29. THREE REASONS FOR EQUITIES NOW REASON #2: Dividend Yields > 10-Year Treasury Yield! DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE DIVIDEND YIELD VS 10-YR BOND
30. THREE REASONS FOR EQUITIES NOW REASON #3: Fund Flows Excellent Contra-Indicator! DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE DIVIDEND YIELD VS 10-YR BOND 1/1/09 – 8/31/10 Bonds Net In +$452 Billion 1/1/09 – 8/31/10 Equities Net out -$42 Billion
31. EARNINGS YIELD VS. 10-YEAR YIELD 6% Spread Very Unusual Divergence! To Narrow Spread: Stocks Prices May Increase and Bonds Yields Rise
56. WHERE ARE THE COMING OPPORTUNITIES? Internet Networks are changing everything. Internet arrived about 25 years ago. Email gained popularity in the late 1980s. An internet that links 100 million people is not worth 10 times one that links 10 million people. In fact, due to massive connective power, a network that links 100 million people is really worth much more than ten times the one that links 10 million. Most of the productivity benefits in the internet are in the future. We are anticipating many great investment opportunities in this space.
62. Unique Use of Internet WHERE ARE THE COMING OPPORTUNITIES?
63. WHERE ARE THE COMING OPPORTUNITIES? Energy Energy complex is the single largest sector of our economic world and has changed only moderately in the past 50 years. Cars are essentially the same technology – better, but the same engine. Electricity is also generated pretty much the same as it was 50 years ago. We anticipate some very large opportunities to invest in wealth-creating ideas in the coming decade. Solar, Wind, Advanced Materials, Battery Technology, Clean Energy, Climate Change are just a few of the incredible new developments we expect.Large fortunes will be created for those who think big and invest in the winners!
82. Gold Bull Market – Key Drivers Investment Demand– Investors continue to Allocate new funds to gold. Protection against currency manipulation. Supply Is Constrained– Industry cannot increase production easily – easy places to find gold are already mined. Zero growth in production over last 6-8 years. Central Bankers No Longer a Seller of Gold– Over 2000 Years of History – Gold, Land, & Diamonds have held their purchasing power – many other classes including currency have seen their value distroyed.
83. ALLOCATION TO ALTERNATIVE ASSETS Currency Protection– Gold and Gold mining Shares International Bonds– High-quality sovereign bonds yield plus appreciation assuming country finances are stronger than USA. Fixed-Income Hybrids– High Yield, Preferred, Convertibles Non-US Currency Securities– Yield plus protection from weaker dollar Commodities– Energy, grains and other indexes
84. TO SUCCEED TODAY ONE NEEDS Flexible Thinking. Do not be afraid of change, embrace it! Use Risk Management Techniques Size of positions Loss discipline Diversification strategy Conviction to Invest in the new winners in a world economy changing at breakneck speed – “Sonic Boom” “It will go well, but it will not be relaxing!” Greg Esterbrook