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Innovative measurements in NHDRs: combining creativity with solid methodological ground


Innovative measurements in NHDRs: combining creativity with solid methodological ground …

Innovative measurements in NHDRs: combining creativity with solid methodological ground
Presentation delivered at “Making an Impact with National Human Development Reporting”, Training organized by HDRO and BRC, Almaty, 11-15 November 2013

This was a great event, which brought together many people professionally dealing with measuring unmeasurable. I was speaking about tough job of combining creativity with solid methodological ground. The presentation outlines main methodological questions, which forms the solid background for creative measurement of issues, related to sustainable human development. The presentation included practical examples from Kyrgyzstan Local HDI and Municipal Capacity Index ( see more ), Social Exclusion Index used for countries in region ( see more ) , Armenia Affordable Human Development Index proposal (see more and ) and 'Micronarratives' approach with examples from Montenegro ( see more ).

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  • I just did. I'd make my reply to yours from there once you've posted it. Thanks :)
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  • Thank you once again for questions. Wouldn't you mind to copy them to facebook group and I will post my comments--it could be of interest for others.
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  • Dear Carla, Thank you for this discussion, it is very useful.
    Yes, exactly, this is a point of presentation--phenomenon could be measured by range of data, although any of them will be a proxy, indirect measurement (even in case of molecules). For instance 'poverty' measure (lack of incomes) is a proxy of people quality of life, quite vague and hard to define thing. However, we assume, that lack of incomes could lead to worse quality of life, therefore, we use it as a proxy.

    Not only objectives could be SMART, but indicators as well. Being time-bound is very essential, as some variables could change quite quickly and we could compare apples and oranges at the end. As we move along the input--output--outcome--impact axis, we have less and less control, more and more risks and collective responsibility, longer time to achieve, and we are getting more and more interested in measuring things (and they get much harder to be measured). We have full control over inputs (i.e. funding for schools), but they says few if any about impact (functional literacy).
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  • You sound greek to me, but human behavior cannot be predicated on science. There are precursors to a phenomenon and even molecules interact that give rise to an effect. Therefore a phenomenon that arises can be brought about by different set of data.
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  • I am not privy to what has been discussed, so please correct me if i am wrong, but if one is measuring SHD, isn't it quite limited if you measure it against the SMART objectives? Because in Program Theory, the intervention to produce the causal processes of change for an individual/org/cmty cannot be time bounded, as there are programs which could only succeed in combination with other interventions; or could only succeed in favorable settings. I think it should be more on HOW change came about, not on what happens if we introduce phenomenon x, y or z that should be looked into, because, what works for whom under what condition is not the same for all.
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  • 1. Innovative measurements in NHDRs: combining creativity with solid methodological ground “Making an Impact with National Human Development Reporting”, Training organized by HDRO and BRC, Almaty, 11-15 November 2013 Mihail Peleah, Human Development Programme and Research Officer, UNDP Bratislava Regional Center
  • 2. “In God we trust; all others must bring data.”
  • 3. Action opportunity costs Evaluation context and knowledge are important Measurement every indicator is a proxy Phenomenon
  • 4. Specific Measurable Achievable Relevant Time-bound
  • 5. Data and indicators • Data – the status of phenomenon – number – meaningless out of context • Indicator – the status and tendency of phenomenon – put data in a context  extracts meaning – combination of two+ sets of data – progress or regress vis-à-vis certain targets
  • 6. To live "happily ever after." • Ogre at swamp • Princess in tower • Helmet, sword • Saved princess • Positive feelings Externalities? • Love • Transformation • Reproduction Sustainability? • Shrek 2 • Shrek the Third
  • 7. Indicators based monitoring chains Intermediate Final Input Output Outcome Financial, physical resources Goods and services produced by inputs (classrooms built, textbooks provided) Access to, use of, and satisfaction with services (enrolment, repetition, dropout rates) Impact Effect on dimension of wellbeing (literacy) Plus sustainability and positive externalities
  • 8. What exactly are we measuring? • Status of phenomenon – Stock – Flow – Input / Output / Outcome • Sustainability of status – Ability to sustain – Efficiency / Effectiveness • Process – The way status was achieved – Dynamics, trends
  • 9. Measuring sustainable human development • Triple nature of Sustainable Human Development – Process: type of development, focused on people (“development of people, for people, by the people”) – Status: achieved [average] level of human development in country – Sustainability: ability to sustain achieved status, cost at which it is achieved
  • 10. • Kyrgyzstan: Why Local HDI and Municipal Capacity Index? To contrast human development inputs and outcomes at the level of municipality – Municipal Capacity Index—what we have in municipality? – Local HDI—what we achieved? • Clustering municipalities, not ranking – Data limitations – Avoiding rank run
  • 11. Kyrgyzstan: Local Self-Governance
  • 12. Social Exclusion Index: Why the index? • Objective and multidimensional measure of social exclusion • Measures status excluded or non-excluded, not ‘perception’ or ‘risk’ • Applicable for Europe and Central Asia region • Useful for policymaking
  • 13. Social Exclusion Chain Individual characteristics interact with Drivers of social exclusion Structures and institutions; values and behavior patterns; policies Drivers are external factors, influenced by legacies, that either speed up or slow down the process of individual vulnerabilities turning into social exclusion (social exclusion risk factors), like poor education, disability, minority status in context of Specific local conditions Predominant industry, single or multiple employment opportunities, local infrastructures, history of violent conflict or environmental disaster …and result in Social exclusion status of the individual in three dimensions— exclusion from economic life, social services, and civic and social participation
  • 14. Different combinations of individual risks, drivers and local context results in different levels of social exclusion If you are young person, with low education, living in village, with single company—you face high risk of exclusion …and secondary education doesn’t help much in these conditions… + …while vibrant business environment makes a lot of difference + …economic centers offer more opportunities (even with low education) + + + + …and much more if you are educated Source: RHDR ―Beyond Transition: Toward Inclusive Societies‖, 2011
  • 15. Armenia AHDI: Why the index? • Measure what • • • achieved and at what cost Measure of development: level and ability to sustain Proposed for Armenia, currently tested for Europe Still a proposal, with open questions: – Sustainability indicators – Ideal vs Available indicators – Dynamics and Substitutions
  • 16. AHDI Construction Status Affordability Context HDI EHDI AHDI
  • 17. Armenia Long and healthy life 1.000 0.716 0.733 0.571 22% 0.750 4 Development Human Development Index Extended Human Development Index AHDI Affordable Human Development Index % losses due to non-sustainability 0.500 5 0.250 6 Clean and balanced environment 7 0.000 Knowledge Extended Human Development Index AHDI Affordable Human Development Index Sustainability A decent standard of living Long and healthy life Status Life expectancy index Life expectancy at birth Knowledge 0.855 74.2 Education index Mean Years of Schooling Expected Years of Schooling Affordability Health Affordability Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY), per 1000 pers 0.931 32 Education Affordability Persistence to last grade of primary, total (% of cohort) A decent standard of living 0.758 10.8 GNI index GNI per capita (USD PPP) Clean and balanced environment 0.566 5,188 12 0.924 97.7 Standards of living Sustainability 0.790 General government gross debt (% of GDP) 35.1 Energy use (kg of oil equivalent) per $1,000 GDP (constant 2005 PPP) 175 Environment Index Improved water source (% of population with access) Air pollution PM10 (micrograms per cubic meter) Natural resources depletion (% of GNI) Forest area (% of base year, 1990) Waste management, Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) Environmental Affordability Water withdrawal - Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources) Terrestrial and marine protected areas (% of total territorial area) Share of energy from renewable sources 0.786 98.6 56.2 0.9 75.0 90.2 0.544 36.4 8.0 35.7 Context Health expenditure, private (% of GDP) 2.6 Health expenditure, public (% of GDP) 2.0 Health expenditure, total (% of GDP) 4.4 Public spending on education, total (% of GDP) HDI Loss due to inequality in education (%) PISA Score on Mathematics HDI Loss due to inequality in income (%) 10.8 6.5 GINI index 30.9 .. HDI Loss due to inequality in life expectancy (%) Physicians (per 1,000 people) 14.9 3.8 Pupil-teacher ratio, secondary 6.7 Nurses and midwives (per 1,000 people) Hospital beds (per 1,000 people) 4.8 Fixed broadband Internet subscribers (per 100 people) Internet users (per 100 people) 2.8 Improved water source (% of population with access) Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 3.7 98.6 90.2 Pupil-teacher ratio, primary 3.2 Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) Firms offering formal training (% of firms) 19.3 44.0 125.0 30.4 Multidimensional poverty index (%) National Council on Sustainable Development Total Ecological Footprint (global ha per capita) Total biocapacity (global ha per capita) Current -1.0 14.9 Biocapacity (Deficit) or Reserve (global ha per capita) Bird species, threatened 12.0 16.0 Mammal species, threatened 9.0 28.6 Plant species (higher), threatened 1.0 0.0 Final consumption expenditure, etc. (% of GDP) Electric power transmission and distribution losses (% of output) Informal payments to public officials (% of firms) Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) Unemployment, youth total (% of total labor force ages 15-24) 90.8 CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) 1.585 45.5 1.7 0.7
  • 18. Why the ‘micronarratives’? • QxQ—combine the best from Qualitative and Quantitative research • Zoom in and Zoom out—see the pattern and investigate a case study • Suitable for all stage of policy process: – – – – Understanding Planning Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation • Could be a tool of empowerment and trust building
  • 19. How it works? Vestibulum nec libero at libero condimentum condimentum ut at neque. Past Maecenas pellentesque porttitor lacus, eget venenatis ipsum eleifend sit amet. Present People tell stories about the topic and tag them against some questions Future When we get more and more stories patterns start emerge • easy to catch by human eye, hard to compute • less sensitive to number of stories, more sensitive to topic Patterns and stories help identify issues, solutions and actions and create feedback loops, involving people in solutions and monitoring
  • 20. Where we implement it? • • • • Montenegro — Environmentally protected areas Montenegro — Civil service and civilians Serbia — Roma people Belarus, Russia, Ukraine — Chernobyl-affected areas • Belarus — people with disabilities • Georgia, Kyrgyzstan — youth perception of development • UNDP — internal business processes
  • 21. Thanks to Borko Vulikic for this case
  • 22. Example: Montenegro Environmetally Protected Areas • Cluster of stories re: – – – – Communities Revenues Source of incomes Limitations of income or business activities • Dig into the stories – – – – Jeep tours were organized to protected areas …but they raise dust clouds …which spoil milk, the raw material for cheese …cheese is major local commodity and source of incomes • Solution – Move jeep trail 500 m from village Thanks to Borko Vulikic for this case
  • 23. Teamworks: Www: Blogs: Email: