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Jj Taboada C Rays Climate

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  • 1. Cosmic Rays: Influences on Climate and Meteorology Juan J. Taboada MeteoGalicia
  • 2. Outline of the talk • First part: A new arising (and controversial) paradigm: Cosmoclimatology. • Second part: Interactions between sun activity (that modulates cosmic rays) and different patterns that influences climate and meteorology: •Modes of low-frequency variability (NAO) •Weather types •Artic Oscillation •Blocking activity.
  • 3. ¿What is the link between climate/meteorology and cosmic rays? Solar wind modulates the flux of high energy particles coming from outside the solar system. These particles, the cosmic rays, are the dominant source of ionization in the troposphere. A more active sun implies lower tropospheric ionization.
  • 4. ¿How does it work the link between clouds and cosmic rays?
  • 5. ¿How does it work the link between clouds and cosmic rays? Electrons set free in the air by cosmic rays help to assemble molecules of sulfuric acid for cloud condensaion nuceli on which watervapour condenses to make clouds.
  • 6. ¿Does this mechanism work in the real atmosphere? Forbush Decreases: Sudden reduction in the influx of GCR as a result of explosive events on the sun. These events provide a natural experiment for testing hypothesis about solar influences on the Earth.
  • 7. ¿Does this mechanism work in the real atmosphere? Decrease of cloud water content over the world’s ocean as a result of the 5 strongest FD over the period 1987-2007. (From Special Sounder Microwave Imager (SSM/I). Svensmark H., Bondo T. and Svensmark J. Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds. GRL, 2009
  • 8. ¿Does this mechanism work in the real atmosphere? From these data it appears that the answer is yes!!! It works. Svensmark H., Bondo T. and Svensmark J. Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds. GRL, 2009
  • 9. Observations Clouds have been observed from space since the beginning of the 1980's. Using the satellite data, Henrik Svensmark of the Danish National Space Center in Copenhagen has shown that cloud cover varies in sync with the variable cosmic ray flux reaching the Earth. More cosmic rays mean more low level clouds.
  • 10. ¿Is this modulation important for climate? Concept of radiative forcing
  • 11. ¿Is this modulation important for climate? Concept of radiative forcing Great uncertainty on the effects of clouds on climate
  • 12. Cosmoclimatology: Reconstruction of past climate changes The solar system periodically crosses the spiral arms of the Milky Way. Each time it does so, it should witness an elevated level of cosmic rays. In fact, the cosmic ray flux variations arising from our galactic journey are ten times larger than the cosmic ray flux variations due to solar activity modulations, at the energies responsible for the tropospheric ionization (of order 10 GeV). Shaviv & J. Veizer, "A Celestial driver of Phanerozoic Climate?", GSA Today 13, No. 7, 4, 2003. N. Shaviv, "Cosmic Ray Diffusion from the Galactic Spiral Arms, Iron Meteorites, and a Possible Climatic Connection", Physical Review Letters 89, 051102, (2002).
  • 13. Interactions betwen solar activity and climate variability
  • 14. Modes of low frequecy variability NAO EA EA/WR SCA 15
  • 15. Correlations of different patterns with rainfall (DJF) in Galicia (1980-2006) Lorenzo and Taboada, JAOS, 2005 16
  • 16. Correlation of different modes of low frequecy variability with rain Peinador (1960-2005) NAO EA EA/WR SCA DJF -0.45 0.42 -0.51 0.46 MAM -0.30 0.17 0.08 0.13 JJA -0.18 0.02 0.17 0.10 SON -0.22 0.23 0.04 0.66 Coruña – Completa (1960-2005) NAO EA EA/WR SCA DJF -0.36 0.39 -0.52 0.36 MAM -0.36 0.15 0.16 0.20 JJA -0.35 0.03 0.05 0.11 SON -0.24 0.35 -0.09 0.66 17
  • 17. Variariability of the correlation over time: Influence of solar activity High correlation between the interaction of NAO with climate variability in Galicia and solar activity Estación Peinador (Vigo) ¿Change of circulation 0.4 regime in North Hemisphere 0.3 at mid 70´s? 0.2 0.1 0 1955 -0.1 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 18 Media SS 20 años corr. NAO-Lluvia (20 años)
  • 18. Correlation of different modes of low frequecy variability with temperature Peinador (1960-2005) NAO EA EA/WR SCA DJF 0.15 0.70 0.10 -0.24 MAM 0.17 0.15 0.16 -0.57 JJA 0.04 0.13 -0.37 -0.46 SON -0.08 0.20 0.16 -0.61 Coruña – Completa (1960-2005) NAO EA EA/WR SCA DJF 0.25 0.73 0.08 -0.24 MAM 0.12 0.29 0.26 -0.50 JJA 0.03 0.15 -0.27 -0.33 SON -0.31 0.35 0.08 -0.51 19
  • 19. Weather types • Automatic clasification of weather types 1. Direction of flow was given by tan-1(WF/SF), 180° being added if WF is positive. The appropriate direction was computed using an eight-point compass, allowing 45° per sector. 2. If |Z|<F, flow is essentially straight and considered to be of a pure directional type (eight different cases, according to the directions of the compass). 3. If |Z|>2F, the pattern was considered to be of a pure cyclonic type if Z>0, or of a pure anticyclonic type if Z<0. 4. If F<|Z|<2F, flow was considered to be of a hybrid type and is therefore characterized by SF = 1.350[0.25( p5 + 2 p9 + p13 ) − 0.25( p4 + 2 p8 + p12 )] both direction and circulation (8 x 2 different WF = [0.5( p12 + p13 ) − 0.5( p4 + p5 )] types). ZS = 0.85[0.25( p6 + 2 p10 + p14 ) − 0.25( p5 + 2 p9 + p13 ) − 0.25( p4 + 2 p8 + p12 ) + 0.25( p3 + 2 p 7 + p11 )] ZW = 1.12[0.5( p15 + p16 ) − 0.5( p8 + p9 )] − 0.91[0.5( p8 + p9 ) − 0.5( p1 + p2 )] F = ( SF 2 + WF 2 )1 2 20 Z = ZS + ZW
  • 20. 100% N 80% NW W 60% SW S SE 40% E NE A 20% C 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Frequency of appearance of different weather types in Galicia in different months. M.N. Lorenzo, J.J. Taboada and L. Gimeno. “Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain)”. International Journal of Climatology 2008. 21
  • 21. Each weather type explains different quantities of rain Tipo Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn NE 0.91 1.22 0.77 0.87 1.06 E 1.86 3.18 1.94 0.74 1.69 SE 2.36 2.94 1.82 0.33 2.45 S 3.02 5.00 2.70 0.43 2.61 SW 10.31 13.64 9.26 3.48 9.61 W 11.80 14.63 9.79 4.35 14.05 NW 5.37 8.99 4.86 2.43 5.86 N 1.70 3.47 1.57 1.05 2.01 C 13.41 15.34 13.57 6.63 17.22 A 0.21 0.31 0.28 0.08 0.21 22
  • 22. Outlook •¿Does sun activity correlate with frequency of appearance of different Weather Types?. Work in progress – Diego Ramos Preliminary results for other areas of Europe (Huth et al. 2002) shows interesting results. • ¿Does the effects on blocking activity (BarrioPedro et al., 2008) has an influence on Galician climate variability? • ¿Does the effects on modes of oscillation has an influence on Galician climate variability? The whole picture until now shows an enhanced zonality under solar maxima
  • 23. Thank you very much for your attention