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    2011 10-24 migbank-daily technical-analysis-report 2011 10-24 migbank-daily technical-analysis-report Presentation Transcript

    • DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT24 October, 2011 Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer. S-TERM L-TERM STRATEGY/ ENTRY OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP MA MULTI-DAY MULTI-WEEK POSITION LEVEL EUR/USD   RK GBP/USD   Exited at 1.3910. Await fresh signal. ET USD/JPY   Exited at 75.90. USD/CHF   Buy limit 3 0.8600 0.9000/0.9200/0.9316 0.8500 Ron William, CMT, MSTA USD/CAD   Buy Stop 3 1.0275 1.0660/1.0850/1.1110 1.0150 AUD/USD   Sell Stop 3 1.0090 0.9930/0.9620/0.9380 1.0290 GBP/JPY   Sell limit 3 123.15 121.60/118.50/116.50 124.40 EUR/JPY   Sell limit 3 107.90 106.90/104.00/100.00 109.00 EUR/GBP   Sell limit 3 0.8870 0.8750/0.8580/0.8400 0.8970 Bijoy Kar, CFA EUR/CHF   Await fresh signal. GOLD   SHORT 1 1805 1300 (Entered 12/09/2011) 1704 SILVER   SHORT 3 31.8150 28.4300/26.0700/23.3400 33.0550 WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCHDISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found at Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entrythe end of this report point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel SwitzerlandTel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 info@migbank.com www.migbank.com
    • EUR/USD DAILY TECHNICAL REPORTEUR/USD 24 October, 2011EUR/USD (Daily) BERMUDA TRIANGLE FAILED Resistance at 1.3937 is holding pressure. BREAKOUTS  EUR/USD’s short-term recovery (worth almost 6%) remains under pressure below resistance at 1.3937 (which has not been breached on a close basis). th  Bears need to break 1.3653 (18 Oct swing low), to challenge that all- BIG LEVEL important psychological level at 1.3000 and unlock further scope into 1.2860 (1.4000) (near 2011 low). th  Key resistance remains at 1.3937 (15 Sept high), which is near the previous breakout zone at 1.4000. Only a confirmation above here will 200-DMA neutralise the status quo. (1.4089) IMPULSIVE (WAVE 3) TREND 2 YEARS DECLINE TARGETS  Inversely, the USD remains above the 200-day MA as most other popular (1.4030) 1.3000 & 1.2870 “risk” markets weaken from overcrowded uptrends. Short-term price activityEUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP has found initial support close to the previous breakout zone at 76.40. USD INDEX EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%, USD INDEX 200-DMA CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6% (4 YEARS)  Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are maintaining their spike above our (75.87) trigger level of 15000 contracts and is holding at 3 standard deviations from the yearly average. This will help sustain the bull-run from historic oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity). +10% +27% +19% SO FAR Special Report: EUR/USD ˝A Fall From Grace˝ ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO BREAKOUT ZONE DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL MIG Bank Webinar: “Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.” 3 STD ABOVE MIG Bank US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg ONE YEAR AVERAGE TRIGGER (15000) + DEMARK™ 13 9 KEY SUPPORT EXTREME NET COT LIQUIDITY US $ SHORT BUY SIGNALS (73.50-73.00) - POSITIONS S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGYUSD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP   Exited at 1.3910 www.migbank.com Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2
    • DAILY TECHNICAL REPORTGBP/USD 24 October, 2011 Under 1.5632 to would turn to bearish bias.  GBP/USD is settling above the 38.2% retrace of the 1.6747-1.5272 fall. A sustained break under 1.5632 is now required to increase the probability of a lasting lower high near this key retrace. 200-day MA  Strategy is still hampered by a lack of reliable structure, largely due to the range bound nature of the market in the medium-term time frame. Should this continue then a larger recovery phase, back towards the 200 day moving average would come back into focus. Remaining neutral is deemed best for now.  GBP/USD has already experienced a large devaluation versus the US Dollar, therefore any further strengthening in the US Dollar may not see the full participation of GBP/USD. Instead GBP/USD is favoured to remainGBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP stronger then most.GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY   Await signal. www.migbank.com Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3
    • DAILY TECHNICAL REPORTUSD/JPY 24 October, 2011 USD/JPY (Daily POST INTERVENTION1 YEAR) RETRACEMENT (PIR I) USD/JPY still basing around its NEW all-time low.  USD/JPY maintains a confluence of DeMark™ exhaustion bullish signals, after yet another new post WWII record low which was carved out at 75.82.QUAKESHOCK!  These reversal signals are also following the second post intervention 83.30 POST retracement in 2011, which is holding around a multi-week base pattern. It is G7 MOVE also worth noting that our volatility measures remain very low and continue HIGH to favour a major breakout over the short-term horizon. 82.00  The medium/long-term view remains bullish, watching for a sustained move POST above our initial upside trigger level at 77.68. This would offer a resumption BOJ MOVE of the preferred new structural bull-cycle into the all-important psychological HIGH level at 80.00, near 80.24 (post BOJ intervention II high). 80.24  Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark™ exhaustion signals, within USD/JPY Weekly ENDING PIR II the ending diagonal pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle. (2007 – 2011) DIAGONAL PATTERN Only a sustained weekly close below 76.25 will lead to a reassessment of BREAKOUT DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL the view and extend temporary weakness into 74.55. TARGET AFTER NEW POST WWII LOW (75.82) (88-85) Please select the link below to sign up for our MIG Bank webinar on USD/JPY. This will feature an update to our previous Special Report USD/JPY’s Long-Term Structural Change (Wednesday, November 02nd – 15:00-15:45 GMT). - What do long-term cycles tell us about the future of USD-JPY? - How do event shocks and Central Bank Interventions impact the market? - Safe-Haven Flows: A wave of change.WAVE 5 - High-Probability Trading Strategies. MONTHLY DEMARK BUY SIGNAL S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGYUSD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP   Exited at 75.90 www.migbank.com Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4
    • DAILY TECHNICAL REPORTUSD/CHF 24 October, 2011 Lower high in place at 0.9083.  USD/CHF appears to have printed a lower high at 0.9083 following the break under 0.8881 yesterday. While under 0.9123 a continuation of this 200-day MA weakness is favoured.  It is also noted that the current trading region is close to the location of the 50 week moving average, at 0.8949. Thus, a continuation of weakness would also warn of a breakdown of the recent recovery structure. However, back under 0.7712 is required to change the long-term bullish bias.  The recent break lower also opens up the potential for a further extension towards 0.8600, where a return to a bullish bias would become attractive again.USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGYUSD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP   Buy limit 3 at 0.8600, Objs: 0.9000/0.9200/0.9316, Stop: 0.8500 www.migbank.com Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5
    • DAILY TECHNICAL REPORTUSD/CAD 24 October, 2011 USD/CAD (Daily) USD/CAD (Weekly) August High Holding around the psychological 1.0000 level. (1.0673)  USD/CAD is still holding around that all-important 1.0000 level (psychological level and prior trading range).  Positive momentum needs to push above 1.0264 and 1.0400 to extend the 200-DMA CONFIRMATION recovery higher above the old resistance level at 1.0673 (August high & (0.9811) ABOVE 1.0680 OPENS LARGER Congestion zone). RECOVERY  A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the rate’s ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle. DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL  Meanwhile, only a sustained close beneath 1.0000 will extend bearish setbacks into next the support level at 0.9750.USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LPMAJOR RESISTANCE  Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large CHF/CAD (Daily) REVERSAL multi-month trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June PATTERN swing high), which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern.  CHF/CAD is retesting its support nearby the 200-day MA at 1.1248, following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains. 50% (1.3570) 61.8% (1.3379) 200-DMA (1.1248) EUR/CAD (Daily) S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGYEUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP   Buy Stop 3: 1.0275, Objs:1.0660/1.0850/1.1110, Stop: 1.0150 www.migbank.com Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6
    • DAILY TECHNICAL REPORTAUD/USD 24 October, 2011AUD/USD TD RISK AUD/USD DEMARK™(1 YEAR) SELL SIGNALS (1.1102) (Weekly) Testing its 200-day MA at 1.0389. (1.0935)  AUD/USD’s bullish recovery is testing the long-term 200-day MA which is STRUCTURAL currently holding at 1.0389. Expect this area to cap (on a closing basis) for a LEVEL move back into the rate’s psychological level at 1.0000. 38.2% (0.9144) 3 YEAR UPTREND  In terms of the big picture, AUD/USD’s multi-year uptrend remains under 50% (0.8546) IS UNDER pressure since the previous breakdown. The bears need to confirm beneath PRESSURE 200-DMA th (1.0389) 61.8% 0.9388 (04 Oct low & structural level) to unlock a much larger decline into (0.7947) KEY 0.9220 and 0.9144 (38.2% Fib-2008 uptrend). ZONE  Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand dollar. The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and 1.2100.AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP  The Aussie dollar has stabilised against the Japanese yen, after failing intoAUD/NZD AUD/JPY DEMARK™ 13 (Daily) (Daily) SELL SIGNAL resistance at 79.92. Watch for a resumption of the major downtrend from spring 2011. Strong downside scope will signal further unwinding of global 200-DMA risk appetite. CAPS BEAR MKT 38.2% (76.70) 200- DMA 50% (83.15) (72.58) 61.8% (68.47) BREAKDOWN ADDS TO RISK AVERSION KEY SUPPORT 1.2319 / 1.2100 S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGYAUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP   Sell Stop 3: 1.0090, Objs: 0.9930/0.9620/0.9380, Stop: 1.0290 www.migbank.com Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7
    • DAILY TECHNICAL REPORTGBP/JPY 24 October, 2011 Range bound short-term, favouring a return to 122.65.  GBP/JPY saw a minor break under 120.34 which failed to hold, reaching 120.00. This is suggestive of the potential for a further recovery leg higher 200-day MA to test the region near 123.00.  The structure present since 116.84 is deemed corrective, with scope for a final swing higher to complete this corrective phase. However, a sustained push under the recent low at 120.00 will warn of resumption of weakness back towards the floor near 117.00. However, an eventual return to 116.84/98 is expected, below which would open up an extension towards 115.00 immediately.  A sustained break over 123.31 is required to change the current bearishGBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP bias. Should this take place a larger corrective phase higher would then be anticipated. S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGYGBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP   Sell limit 3 at 123.15, Objs: 121.60/118.50/116.50, Stop: 124.40 www.migbank.com Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8
    • DAILY TECHNICAL REPORTEUR/JPY 24 October, 2011 Consolidates above the 104.96/104.99 floor.  EUR/JPY continues to range just above the 104.96/99 floor, following initial support over the last few sessions. Provided this floor is not breached, 200-day MA scope is seen for a fresh swing higher to re-test the 107.68 level. However, the larger structure present since 114.18 favours the formation of a lower high close to 108.03, for a return to re-test 100.76.  Failure to hold under 108.03 will warn of a larger recovery structure, negating our medium-term bearish bias. Also, if a push over 108.03 can be sustained this will bring into focus a potential false break lower out of a falling channel in the daily timeframe.  A move under the annual low would open up an extension to 97.50, ahead of 92.80, levels not seen since 2000.EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGYEUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP   Sell limit 3 at 107.90, Objs: 106.90/104.00/100.00, Stop: 109.00 www.migbank.com Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9
    • DAILY TECHNICAL REPORTEUR/GBP 24 October, 2011 Further swing higher anticipated towards 0.8886/85.  EUR/GBP continues to trade close to the 200 day moving average over 200-day MA recent sessions. However, the bigger picture is dominated by the recent failure to hold over the key high at 0.8672. Thus the rise from 0.8530 is viewed as being a corrective structure with scope for a lower high to form closer to the old 0.8886/85 double top. So, although further short-term strength may follow, supply is favoured to manifest near 0.8885.  Should this move be realised, it would also take us close to the upper end of the recent trading range. There is an increased probability of general range bound trade, thus short entry at higher levels is also supported by the potential of a return to a period similar to that between 2003 and 2007 (notEUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP shown).  A move back over 0.8960 is required to neutralise our mild bearish bias, in a generally rangebound environment. S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGYEUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP   Sell limit 3 at 0.8870, Objs: 0.8750/0.8580/0.8400, Stop: 0.8970 www.migbank.com Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10
    • DAILY TECHNICAL REPORTEUR/CHF 24 October, 2011 Fails to garner momentum close to channel resistance.  EUR/CHF failed to garner momentum after meeting supply close to the 200-day MA resistance of an hourly rising channel. The subsequent weakness is currently testing the support of this same structure. A failure to find support here would warn of a larger fall back down to the 1.2000 level.  Although bullish for the time being, it is expected that the 1.2500-1.3000 zone may limit the current recovery phase from 1.0075. It is anticipated that the market’s willingness to trade with the bias of the SNB may exhaust should this trading region be met, as further gains in this cross are likely to become more dependent on economic releases.  A sustained move under 1.2024 will alter our near-term bullish bias.EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP S-T TREND L-T TRENDEUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP   Long stopped. Await fresh trading signal. www.migbank.com Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11
    • DAILY TECHNICAL REPORTGOLD 24 October, 2011GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELSDOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1704 / $1844 RISK (1935) RISK ZONE III Risk of a larger decline beneath $1530. DEMARK™ SIGNAL 20% WARNED OF GOLD’S SO FAR  Gold remains bearish after its dramatic 20% price fall, which helped confirm OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS the extreme overbought conditions (marked by DeMark™ indicators). This also timed a key cycle peak, ahead of that all-important $2000 glass-ceiling. $1704  Most concerning is that speculative (net long) flows have recently breached a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold $1600 34% positions. $1532  In price terms, Gold’s latest 20% bearish slide is still worth less than the 200-DMA BREAKOUT NOT BROKEN largest average drawdown measured since the start of the yellow metal’s IN 3 YEARS! long-term bull market in 1999. 26%  There is heightened risk of a much larger decline if we confirm a weeklyCONFIRMATION BELOW $1530UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE close beneath $1600 and $1554-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has notINTO $1300 & $1040-1000 been breached in 3 years! TREND CHANNEL  A number of “bargain hunting” trend-followers will be watching this (12 YEARS) benchmark “line in the sand” for repeat support or a potential big squeeze COT NET LONG lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still SPECULATOR POSITIONS offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.I Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage: 25% Special Report “Gold’s mountainous peak at risk…beneath $1600” VIDEO OVER 2 YEARS OF MIG Bank Gold Interview on CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video SIZEABLE LONG (CNBC & BLOOMBERG REPORTS) GOLD POSITIONS UNDER THREAT IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS II S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGYGold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP   SHORT 1: 1805, Obj: 1300. Stop: 1704 www.migbank.com Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12
    • DAILY TECHNICAL REPORTSILVER 24 October, 2011 Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARK™ SELL SIGNAL 13 Key support at $26.0700. I  Silver’s latest price capitulation is a painful reminder to the investment Silver DEMARK™ (Daily) SELL SIGNAL community that lightning can strike twice. Note, this marks the second time silver has crashed, following its 30% fall from April this year.  The move was triggered following a DeMark™ exhaustion sell signal and II 200 DMA (36.5125) has now wiped out almost 50% of silver’s prior gains (taken from Silver’s all- time high at 49.7900) which was last seen in 1980. KEY  Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This SUPPORT 38.2% (26.0700) (32.3135) allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest. Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio 50%  Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the (26.9150) multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silver’s long- 61.8% (21.5165) term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher. 13 YEAR LEVEL  Continue to watch the gold-silver “mint” ratio which has now accelerated UNWINDING 67% FROM OVERSOLD TERRITORY higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks. OVER 30 YEAR BASE PATTERN BULL MARKET FROM 1999Silver Monthly (since 1980) S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGYSpot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver “mint” ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP   Short 3 at 31.8150, Objs: 28.4300/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 33.0550 www.migbank.com Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13
    • LEGAL DAILY TECHNICAL REPORTTERMS 24 October, 2011 Limitation of liability DISCLAIMER MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages. Material Interests No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act have had interests or positions on, relevant securities. of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal Copyright use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK. expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be making any investment decision. moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim. sent between reports. www.migbank.com 14
    • DAILY TECHNICAL REPORTCONTACT 24 October, 2011 Howard Friend Ron William MIG BANK 14, rte des Gouttes d’Or www.migbank.com Bjioy Kar Chief Market Strategist Technical Strategist info@migbank.com CH-2008 Neuchâtel Technical Strategist r.william@migbank.com www.migbank.com Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 h.friend@migbank.com b.kar@migbank.com 15