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Big Issues In Australia's Property And Construction Future
 

Big Issues In Australia's Property And Construction Future

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Davis Langdon\'s - An AECOM Company - Australia and New Zealand Research Manager delivered the following presentation for the Property Council of Australia on the 15th October 2010, tackling the 'Big ...

Davis Langdon\'s - An AECOM Company - Australia and New Zealand Research Manager delivered the following presentation for the Property Council of Australia on the 15th October 2010, tackling the 'Big Issues in Australia's Property and Construction Future'

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    Big Issues In Australia's Property And Construction Future Big Issues In Australia's Property And Construction Future Presentation Transcript

    • GLOBAL PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION CONSULTANTS
    • BIG ISSUES AUSTRALIA’S PROPERTY AND CONSTRUCTION FUTURE Michael Skelton Australia & New Zealand Research Manager
    • Facts, Fiction and the Future Population Growth Infrastructure Investment Forecast Labour Force Demand Projected Cost Escalation ‘ Competitive’ Immigration...
    • WHERE WE WERE...
    • WHERE WE ARE...
    • WHERE WE NEED TO BE...
    • HOW DO WE GET THERE?
    • The Population Debate How much is enough?
    • Australia - Today million 22.5
    • Australia @ 2050 million 30 ?
    • Australia @ 2050 million 35 ?
    • Australia @ 2050 million 40 ?
    • Australia @ 2050 More??
    • DECIPHERING THE POPULATION DEBATE
    • The Most Dangerous Idea! – A Static Population Million Today 2050 Projection +146% -40% +5% Minor Allowance of Growth from 22.5 million to 25 million
    • Population Projections High Projection Scenario 38% Increase South Australia Currently 1.6 million 2.2 million National 39.4m 33.9m 30.2m High Projection Scenario 75% Increase
    • The Irreversible Truth – Ageing Population % of GDP devoted to Age-Related Spending by 2050 Proportion of Population Aged 65+
    • New research was needed…
    • INFRASTRUCTURE AND LABOUR FORCE
    • Infrastructure Labour Force Growth - Historical
      • Index = 100 in 1987
      Infrastructure Labour Force Total Labour Force
    • Infrastructure Investment (per capita) - Historical
    • 2050 – REQUIRED Infrastructure Labour Force Current infrastructure labour force: 738,000   Population Projections     Low Medium High Infrastructure Investment Projection Scenarios Low Projection 907,000 1,021,000 1,191,000 Medium Projection 1,568,000 1,765,000 2,058,000 High Projection 2,229,000 2,508,000 2,925,000
    • Ratio of Infrastructure Labour Force to Total Population High Projection Low Projection
    • 2050 – REQUIRED Infrastructure Labour Force Infrastructure labour force contribution will grow to 7.5% of the total population from a long term average of 3%
    • Construction Productivity Job Required per $1million NSW VIC QLD SA WA Australia Residential & Non-Residential Work Done 16.7 10.6 13.9 14.2 11.6 13.1 Total Work Done (Including Engineering) 8.3 7.3 6.3 6.8 3.5 6.3 Proportion of Engineering Work Done 50% 31% 55% 52% 70% 52%
    • COST ESCALATION
    • Unemployment Rate
      • Considerably less spare labour capacity this time around
    • Why did the Labour Force Remain Tight?
      • Employers chose to reduce hours rather than reduce staff
      Hours Worked (billion hours/Month) Total Jobs (millions)
    • Comparative International Construction Costs Office High-Rise Apartments Hotels
    • National Housing Deficit Worsening
    • ‘ COMPETITIVE’ MIGRATION
    • Circular Migration – Competition for Skills
    • Circular Migration – Competition for Skills
    • Historical Net Migration This would achieve 42 million by 2050
    • Australia – Still one of the most ‘ liveable ’ countries? In recent years Australia’s ranking as one of the world’s most liveable countries & its business investment ranking have fallen
    • A Prosperous and High Liveability ‘Big’ Australia Percentage of People in Prison that have... 36% Never Been Employed in Any Capacity Completed Secondary School or Trade 7%
    • Connectivity
      • Productivity Improvements
        • High Speed Rail
        • High Speed Internet
          • Remote Training and Education
          • Remote Health Care Treatment
          • Remote Workplaces
      Australia is reaching the trigger points …
      • Metro Rail Systems
      • Renewable Energy Leaders (not Laggards)
      New Economically Viable Cities
    • HOW DO WE GET THERE?
      • Migration policy to manage projected demand – not reactionary
      • Connectivity
        • in technology
        • in high speed rail
      • World class education
      • Renewable energy technology
      • A sustainable housing strategy
      • And lastly… more people…
    • Thank you Michael Skelton Australia & New Zealand Research Manager [email_address] Delivering solutions that enhance and sustain the world’s built, natural and social environments