Global Futures Forum (Washington, D.C.)
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Global Futures Forum (Washington, D.C.)

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February 2012.

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Global Futures Forum (Washington, D.C.) Global Futures Forum (Washington, D.C.) Presentation Transcript

  • Michell Zappa @envisioningtech mz@envisioningtech.com envisioningtech.comOver the last day we have looked at dozens of intriguing emerging technologies and have also started thinking about what they meanfor the future of security.I’m here today to talk a little bit about my approach for looking at these technologies by taking a step back, looking at how they relate,and to envision scenarios we might expect based on current trends.
  • envisioning technologyI’ve published a visualization called “Envisioning Technology”.
  • AI INTERNET INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ENERGY SPACE GEOTECHINTERNET INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ENERGY SPACE GEOTECH Cloud Multi Depth Tablets Personal Additivecomputing touch imaging gene sequencing manufacturing Inductive chargers Cyber- Gesture Near-field warfare recognition communication Volumetric Self-healing (3D) screens Appliance materials robots Tidal turbines Speech Pervasive recognition video 4G capture Flexible screens Fuel cells Organ Commercial printing spaceflight Boards Graphene Meshnetworking Augmented Biometric reality Smart sensors toys Bio-enhanced fuels The key idea is to look at all sorts of emerging technologies. I started by organizing my research across eleven areas, “from bits to atoms”s, to speak.
  • Interplanetary Reprogrammable Domestic internet chips robots 2012 Optogenetics 2030 Skin-embedded 2020 screens Swarm robotics Immersive virtual reality Remote presence Retinal screens 2030 Neuro- informatics Embodied avatars Exocortex Machine- augmented cognition 2040 Machine augmented cognition Utility fog 2040The next step is spreading out the observations on a timeline. We cover speculations for approximately the next 30 years.
  • ARTIFICIAL INTERNET INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICSINTELLIGENCEHigh-frequency Cloud Multi Depth Tablets trading computing touch imaging Cyber- Gesture Near-field warfare recognition communication Software agents Volumetric (3D) screens Appliance robots Speech Pervasive recognition video 4G capture Flexible screensNatural language interpretation Boards Mesh networking Augmented Biometric reality Smart sensors toys
  • Robotic Synthetic surgery blood Personal fabricatorsSelf-driving Smart drugs Sub-orbital vehicles Multi-segmented spaceflight smart grids Meta- Space materials tourism Powered Photvoltaicexoskeleton glass Personalized medicine Optical invisibility cloaks Piezo- Weather electricity engineering In-vitro meatUnmanned aerial
  • Optogenetics Gene therapy Skin-embedded Mole screens Swarm asse robotics Immersive virtual reality Hybrid assisted limbse Retinal screens Nan Artificial retinas Neuro- informatics
  • ARTIFICIAL INTERNET INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ENERGY SPACE GEOTECH INTELLIGENCE QUANTITATIVE FORECASTS Global online population: ± 2 billion High-frequency Cloud Multi Depth Tablets Personal Additive 2012 trading computing touch imaging gene sequencing manufacturing 2012 Connected devices: ±10 billion 2013 Inductive 2013 chargers Cyber- Gesture Near-field 2014 warfare recognition communication 2014 Software agents Volumetric Self-healing (3D) screens Appliance materials robots Tidal turbines Global online population: ± 2.5 billion 2015 2015 Connected devices: ±15 billion Speech Pervasive Sources: recognition video Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04 4G capture InternetWorldStats – http://bit.ly/AKbO5 Flexible screens Fuel cells Organ Commercial printing spaceflight 2016 2016 Natural language interpretation Boards Graphene Mesh networking Augmented Biometric reality Smart sensors toys 2017 2017 Bio-enhanced fuels Virtual 4K Robotic Synthetic currencies surgery blood Smart power meters 2018 Personal fabricators Biomarkers Pico- Machine Haptics projectors Self-driving Sub-orbital translation vehicles Smart drugs Multi-segmented smart grids spaceflight 2019 2019 Global online population: 4-5 billion Connected devices: 30-50 billion Machine Meta- Space 5G vision tourism $150 Hard disk: ±200 Tb materials Photvoltaic Standard RAM: ±750Gb Powered glass Procedural exoskeleton Sources: storytelling Eyewear-embedded Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04 screens Ericsson – http://bit.ly/avvVok Alan Conroy – http://bit.ly/pofHp5 2020 2020 FutureTimeline – http://bit.ly/qz4ben Personalized medicine Holography Optical invisibility cloaks Piezo- Weather Context-aware electricity computing engineering In-vitro meat Reputation Unmanned economy aerial Computational vehicles photography Synthetic Petabyte storage standard Fabric-embedded biology Carbon screens nanotubes Source: http://bit.ly/r9BYQc VR-only Telepresence lifeforms $ 1.000 computer reaches the capacity of the human brain (± 1015 calculations per second) Stem-cell Vertical Source: http://bit.ly/6MoQJc treatments farming World population 8 billion Interplanetary Reprogrammable Domestic Biomaterials Biomechanical Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS internet chips robots harvesting BRICs GDP overtakes the G7 Source: Goldman Sachs – http://bit.ly/nc9Wqj Sea- Nano- steading generators Optogenetics Gene therapy Artificial 2030 photosynthesis 2030 Skin-embedded Molecular Terabit internet speed standard screens Swarm assembler Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb robotics Immersive virtual reality Desalination Hybrid Lunar assisted limbs Enernet outpost Remote presence Retinal screens Exabyte storage standard Nanowires Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb Artificial Mars Carbon retinas mission sequestration Neuro- Thorium informatics reactor Embodied avatars Nanomedicine Climate Exocortex engineering Programmable Space matter elevator Machine- augmented cognition Anti- Traveling Machine augmented aging cognition drugs wave reactor Utility fog Space-based Solar Arcologies solar power sail World population reaches 9 billion Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS 2040 2040You can see it as an “interdisciplinary roadmap for the future.”
  • ARTIFICIAL INTERNET INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ENERGY SPACE GEOTECH INTELLIGENCE QUANTITATIVE FORECASTS Global online population: ± 2 billion High-frequency Cloud Multi Depth Tablets Personal Additive 2012 trading computing touch imaging gene sequencing manufacturing 2012 Connected devices: ±10 billion 2013 Inductive 2013 chargers Cyber- Gesture Near-field 2014 warfare recognition communication 2014 Software agents Volumetric Self-healing (3D) screens Appliance materials robots Tidal turbines Global online population: ± 2.5 billion 2015 2015 Connected devices: ±15 billion Speech Pervasive Sources: recognition video Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04 4G capture InternetWorldStats – http://bit.ly/AKbO5 Flexible screens Fuel cells Organ Commercial printing spaceflight 2016 2016 Natural language interpretation Boards Graphene Mesh networking Augmented Biometric reality Smart sensors toys 2017 2017 Bio-enhanced fuels Virtual 4K Robotic Synthetic currencies surgery blood Smart power meters 2018 Personal fabricators Biomarkers Pico- Machine Haptics projectors Self-driving Sub-orbital translation vehicles Smart drugs Multi-segmented smart grids spaceflight 2019 2019 Global online population: 4-5 billion Connected devices: 30-50 billion Machine Meta- Space 5G vision tourism $150 Hard disk: ±200 Tb materials Photvoltaic Standard RAM: ±750Gb Powered glass Procedural exoskeleton Sources: storytelling Eyewear-embedded Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04 screens Ericsson – http://bit.ly/avvVok Alan Conroy – http://bit.ly/pofHp5 2020 2020 FutureTimeline – http://bit.ly/qz4ben Personalized medicine Holography Optical invisibility cloaks Piezo- Weather Context-aware electricity computing engineering In-vitro meat Reputation Unmanned economy aerial Computational vehicles photography Synthetic Petabyte storage standard Fabric-embedded biology Carbon screens nanotubes Source: http://bit.ly/r9BYQc VR-only Telepresence lifeforms $ 1.000 computer reaches the capacity of the human brain (± 1015 calculations per second) Stem-cell Vertical Source: http://bit.ly/6MoQJc treatments farming World population 8 billion Interplanetary Reprogrammable Domestic Biomaterials Biomechanical Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS internet chips robots harvesting BRICs GDP overtakes the G7 Source: Goldman Sachs – http://bit.ly/nc9Wqj Sea- Nano- steading generators Optogenetics Gene therapy Artificial 2030 photosynthesis 2030 Skin-embedded Molecular Terabit internet speed standard screens Swarm assembler Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb robotics Immersive virtual reality Desalination Hybrid Lunar assisted limbs Enernet outpost Remote presence Retinal screens Exabyte storage standard Nanowires Source: http://bit.ly/kPMKMb Artificial Mars Carbon retinas mission sequestration Neuro- Thorium informatics reactor Embodied avatars Nanomedicine Climate Exocortex engineering Programmable Space matter elevator Machine- augmented cognition Anti- Traveling Machine augmented aging cognition drugs wave reactor Utility fog Space-based Solar Arcologies solar power sail World population reaches 9 billion Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS 2040 2040But I think it’s true worth is displayed when you start connecting the dots between the individual technologies and start thinkingabout the critical paths between them.
  • GPS GPS GPS GPSOne way of seeing intersections between different technologies is from looking backwards in time. Take an existing product or serviceand flesh out the individual components that were necessary for it to be invented.What makes YouTube possible? The combination of: ubiquitous cameras, cheap storage, fast processing, a proliferation of internetusers and fast internet access.
  • GPS GPSSame thing for a service like 23andMe. It was only possible after the proliferation of fast processing, automatic sequencing machines,optical sensors and a degree of social network analysis.
  • Scenario #1: SurveillanceToday I’ll go over three brief sci-fi scenarios based on extrapolating existing trends.
  • A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors: Experiments performed with a team of nano quadrotors at the GRASP Lab, University of Pennsylvaniahttp:/ /www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQIMGV5vtd4
  • The rise in drone journalism.
  • Moscow protestshttp:/ /dronejournalism.tumblr.com/post/14136093865/more-on-the-moscow-protest-photos
  • http:/ /www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=9vOor1xmVDs
  • The Xbox Kinect - a brilliant example of depth imaging (or computer vision) popularizing as a toy.
  • http:/ /www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QrnwoO1-8AThis is how the Kinect sees the world.
  • Drone cameras Swarm robotics Computer visionSo where do you end up in a future where these three technologies are prominent?
  • Imagine a future with a swarm of thumbnail-sized flying nanocopters with 3D cameras on them.
  • “IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”Imagine a cloud of cameras. Unstoppable, able to see everything. Drop it into a hostage situation or use it for spying. The possibilitiesand risks are endless.
  • “IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”
  • “IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON”And if you doubt the possibility, check the AR.Drone Parrot, a $300 helicopter toy with a camera which is controlled by an iPhone app.
  • Scenario #2:Urban intelligence
  • Outboard brain: http:/ /www.wired.com/techbiz/people/magazine/15-10/st_thompsonWe are outsourcing as much information as possible from our brains into our portable devices. Phone numbers, addresses, directions,etc.
  • And we are outsourcing the decision-making process to our devices.Here is a WiFi-enabled umbrella which flashes if it’s going to rain. No need to look up the weather.
  • We’re moving toward an internet of things, where all infrastructure is interdependent and connected.Sometimes called the “smart city”.
  • The surge of personal agents.
  • Coupled with context-aware computers which know where we are.
  • Smart infrastructurePersonal agentsContextual computing
  • “DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO”I call this trend “tell me what to do”. A scenario where the computer, or the network, is smart enough to guide you through your day.Tell you which road to take based on traffic patterns, notify you when a friend is nearby, coordinate your calendar, etc.http:/ /www.flickr.com/photos/cowboyuk80/3742085978/sizes/o/in/photostream/
  • “DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO”http:/ /www.flickr.com/photos/cowboyuk80/3742085978/sizes/o/in/photostream/
  • Scenario #3:Self-organization
  • Mobile phones generally work by connecting wirelessly to microcells. It’s a distributed but centralized network.
  • We are seeing the rise of mesh networks, or mobile ad-hoc networks. Instead of being centralized around antennas, each nodebecomes a relay. This means mobile phones with this technology can communicate without any existing infrastructure in place.
  • “In essence, Mobile Hotspots seeks to provide cell-tower-class performance without the infrastructure.”And DARPA is already working on this technology.http:/ /www.darpa.mil/NewsEvents/Releases/2012/02/10.aspx
  • Likewise, we usually think of energy as a centralized process.
  • But with the rise of photovoltaic capacity in solar cells, we’re quickly reaching the point where that’s no longer necessary.
  • Look at the rising lines. Photovoltaic efficiency rises yearly.
  • http:/ /www.technologyreview.com/energy/39544/
  • $799 .99And finally, smartphones are generally seen as expensive.
  • $But the trend is for the price of all electronics to drop quickly over time.
  • Mesh networkingPhotovoltaicsAffordable smartphones
  • “AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”The takeaway? Imagine a cheap smartphone that works entirely off the grid. Communicates with anyone on the network, and isimpossible to censor. Now imagine airdropping those into a country where communications have been shut down by thegovernment.
  • “AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”Given the right political conditions and level of tension, you could potentially set off a revolution like what we saw around the middleeast in 2011.
  • “AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”Without naming names, I’m sure you can all think of a couple of regions where these airdrops could come in handy.
  • “IRREPRESSIBLE PANOPTICON” “DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO” “AIRDROPPED REVOLUTIONS”Again, this is just a handful of scenarios based on less than a dozen actual technologies.
  • The other characteristic about technology is how it’s always progressing.A century ago, humanity had never even taken flight. Now, we take it for granted. (1903)
  • Same with medical imaging. (1895)
  • Connect the dots. See where technologies intersect.
  • Thank you. @envisioningtechmz@envisioningtech.com envisioningtech.com