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Ida Presentation   The Future Of Downtown Retail
 

Ida Presentation The Future Of Downtown Retail

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Presentation to the International Downtown Association on "The Future of Downtown Retail"

Presentation to the International Downtown Association on "The Future of Downtown Retail"

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    Ida Presentation   The Future Of Downtown Retail Ida Presentation The Future Of Downtown Retail Presentation Transcript

    • The Future of Downtown Retail
      Michael Stumpf, AICP, CEcD
      Principal, Place Dynamics
    • The bad and the good
      The golden age of retail has come to an end
      Demographics do not support the same levels of retail growth
      Consumers no longer have access to easy credit and asset-funded spending
      Retail formats and practices are changing
      Consumer desires and interests are changing
      Downtown is in a better position to capture future development
    • Consider 150 years of retail evolution
      Catalog Sales
      Lifestyle Centers
      Self-Service
      Power
      Center
      Mall
      Downtown and Neighborhoods
      ?
      1860
      1870
      1880
      1890
      1900
      1910
      1920
      1930
      1940
      1950
      1960
      1970
      1980
      1990
      2000
      Independent Business
      Chain Stores
      Mega
      Chains
      ?
      Walmart, Kmart, and
      Target Open First Stores
      First Chain Stores
    • Are we on the verge of a fundamental shift?
      Perhaps the recession is a transition to something new…
      Demographic trends
      Baby boomers retiring, spending less
      Generations X and Y rising
      Growing ethnic population
      Urban growth and sustainability
      Sprawl and affordability, environmental limits on growth
      Retail consolidation
      Shoppers are bored and dissatisfied
      Watch for the counter-trend
      The Internet
      Increasing threats and opportunities for small retailers
    • How is the shopper changing?
      Shoppers are making permanent lifestyle and consumption changes…
      A shift from “aspirational” shopping
      Luxury, quantity, and conspicuous consumption are out
      Value, quality, and simplicity are in – cash only
      Shoppers have a growing interest in community
      Post-recession spending will return to only about 85 percent of pre-recession levels
      Shoppers will indulge on fewer but more meaningful items
      These findings are consistent across all income levels and they are global
    • People are interested in “buying local”
      Why are people buying local products?
      Desire for something unique
      Perceived higher quality / freshness
      Community-supportive purchasing
      Centralized purchasing makes it difficult for chains to source local
      Attempt to redefine the meaning of “local”
      Promoting shopping at the “local” mall
      Do “shop local” campaigns really work?
    • The product selection dynamic is changing
      Discounters, big box specialty stores, and grocery stores are scaling back on size and SKUs – reversing a trend
      Top brands gain shelf space at the cost of less popular brands
      Private label brands are surging, taking up more space in smaller stores
      Loss of major outlets will make smaller retailers more important to the suppliers who are “left out”
      Independents and small chains have a greater chance to differentiate themselves based on selection
    • We are bored with the same old stores
      A genuine downtown experience…
    • Downtown vs. the mall
    • Downtown can put the excitement back
      Downtown can retain unique character
      Authenticity - downtown is “the real thing”
      A history and a story to tell
      Architectural and design variety
      Downtown has shops and restaurants that people will not find elsewhere
      Downtown houses a diversity of uses and people
    • There is a need for neighborhood retail
      Urban residential is a growing trend
      Demographic preferences
      Emerging economics
      Downtown populations tend to be underserved
      Smaller, non-competitive stores closed
      Large stores locate where traffic counts are high
      Land assembly costs work against downtown
      DOWNTOWN
    • Where will the growth be in retail formats?
      • Pet products and services
      • Home and garden
      • Health / alternative health products
      • Products for the reluctantly aging
      • Goods from / targeted to ethnic groups
      • Green/sustainable/organic/local products
      • Experiential retail environments
      • Ready to go / anytime
    • In a nutshell…
      High quality, low price, unique or very special
      Downtown is tied to independent retail
      Downtown serves a neighborhood area that is gaining residential share
      Mall malaise and chain saturation are causing people to look elsewhere for variety
      Reduced chain SKU counts will create an opportunity for small retailers
      Shopper interest in community and local buying favors small retailers
    • We are bored with the same old stores
      Shopping is a favorite activity
      Consolidation has drastically reduced regional brands and is gaining momentum
      Malls are no longer in fashion
      Lifestyle malls are losing their luster
      Some possible threats
      Will the independents be lured to the malls?
      Will the chains come downtown?
      Are we making the same mistakes as the developers?